Issued 2026-09-16 at $30.80 · now $30.80 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, WBI has typically landed between $27.08 and $36.63 — a range of −12.1% to +18.9% from the issuance price $30.80.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
230 overlapping 1 month windows · 2025-09-17 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($30.80) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where WBI has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $30.8 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $30.8 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $31.95 (+3.7%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $29.78–$34.11
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $27.08–$36.63
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2025-11-14 | −20.0% | −20.0% | +0.0% |
| 2025-11-12 | −17.7% | −17.7% | +0.0% |
| 2025-12-05 | −17.4% | −17.4% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2026-01-12 | +24.8% | +0.0% | +24.8% |
| 2026-06-23 | +24.3% | −1.0% | +26.7% |
| 2026-04-17 | +23.5% | +0.0% | +23.5% |
230 overlapping windows · 2025-09-17 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~1 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-22 | WaterBridge Resources LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 5,894,826 @ $30.05 | $177.1M | −74.8% of holding | +20.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,980,921 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-22 | WBR Holdings LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 5,894,826 @ $30.05 | $177.1M | −74.8% of holding | +20.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,980,921 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-22 | Capobianco David N | director | Sale | 5,894,826 @ $30.05 | $177.1M | −74.8% of holding | +20.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,980,921 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-22 | DEVON ENERGY CORP/DE | director | Sale | 1,755,174 @ $30.05 | $52.7M | −100.0% of holding | +20.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-06 | Reitz Michael Howard JR | officer | Purchase | 4,865 @ $20.49 | $100K | +5.1% of holding | +19.3% | +73.3% | 99,865 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-06 | McNeely Scott Lloyd | officer | Purchase | 1,278 @ $19.56 | $25K | +1.7% of holding | +19.3% | +73.3% | 76,278 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-05 | Long Jason Thomas | director | Purchase | 5,000 @ $19.84 | $99K | +3.6% of holding | +12.4% | +63.6% | 142,500 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-05 | Bolling Harrison Fenner | officer | Purchase | 2,000 @ $19.98 | $40K | +2.9% of holding | +12.4% | +63.6% | 72,000 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-18 | CRANE JAMES R | director | Purchase | 200,000 @ $20.00 | $4.0M | ownership Δ n/a | +5.5% | +15.1% | 200,000 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-18 | CRANE JAMES R | director | Purchase | 100,000 @ $20.00 | $2.0M | ownership Δ n/a | +5.5% | +15.1% | 100,000 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-18 | DAILY GREGORY S | director | Purchase | 75,000 @ $20.00 | $1.5M | ownership Δ n/a | +5.5% | +15.1% | 75,000 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
29 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-04 | Bolling Harrison Fenner | officer | Award / grant | 29,886 | 101,886 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-04 | Reitz Michael Howard JR | officer | Award / grant | 39,599 | 139,464 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-04 | Williams Jason Frederick | officer | Award / grant | 29,886 | 99,886 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-04 | Long Jason Thomas | director | Award / grant | 44,829 | 187,329 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-04 | McNeely Scott Lloyd | officer | Award / grant | 32,875 | 109,153 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-22 | WBR Holdings LLC | tenPercentOwner | Conversion | 4,464,012 | 51,762,663 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-22 | WaterBridge Resources LLC | tenPercentOwner | Other acquisition | 4,464,012 | 51,762,663 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-22 | WaterBridge Resources LLC | tenPercentOwner | Conversion | 4,464,012 | 7,875,747 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-22 | WaterBridge Resources LLC | tenPercentOwner | Conversion | 4,464,012 | 51,762,663 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-22 | DEVON ENERGY CORP/DE | director | Other acquisition | 1,755,174 | 16,002,051 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-22 | DEVON ENERGY CORP/DE | director | Conversion | 1,755,174 | 1,755,174 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-22 | DEVON ENERGY CORP/DE | director | Conversion | 1,755,174 | 16,002,051 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-22 | Capobianco David N | director | Other acquisition | 4,464,012 | 51,762,663 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-22 | Capobianco David N | director | Conversion | 4,464,012 | 7,875,747 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-22 | Capobianco David N | director | Conversion | 4,464,012 | 51,762,663 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-22 | WBR Holdings LLC | tenPercentOwner | Other acquisition | 4,464,012 | 51,762,663 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-22 | WBR Holdings LLC | tenPercentOwner | Conversion | 4,464,012 | 7,875,747 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-06 | WBR Holdings LLC | tenPercentOwner | Other acquisition | 2,456,248 | 56,226,677 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-06 | Capobianco David N | director | Other acquisition | 2,456,248 | 56,226,677 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-06 | WaterBridge Resources LLC | tenPercentOwner | Other acquisition | 2,456,248 | 56,226,677 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-13 | Chase Valerie | director | Award / grant | 2,830 | 2,830 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-12 | Carrig Janet | director | Award / grant | 6,500 | 6,500 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-01 | CRANE JAMES R | director | Award / grant | 6,500 | 206,500 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-01 | DAILY GREGORY S | director | Award / grant | 6,500 | 81,500 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-18 | Reitz Michael Howard JR | officer | Award / grant | 95,000 | 95,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-18 | Long Jason Thomas | director | Award / grant | 137,500 | 137,500 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-18 | Williams Jason Frederick | officer | Award / grant | 70,000 | 70,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-18 | Bolling Harrison Fenner | officer | Award / grant | 70,000 | 70,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-18 | McNeely Scott Lloyd | officer | Award / grant | 75,000 | 75,000 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.