Issued 2026-09-16 at $28.07 · now $28.07 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, WBD has typically landed between $22.61 and $34.82 — a range of −19.5% to +24.1% from the issuance price $28.07.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
4,685 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($28.07) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where WBD has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $28.07 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $28.07 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $27.79 (-1.0%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $25.43–$30.15
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $22.61–$34.82
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2021-03-19 | −54.1% | −54.1% | +0.0% |
| 2021-03-18 | −52.1% | −52.1% | +1.7% |
| 2021-03-16 | −50.1% | −50.1% | +1.9% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2025-08-21 | +69.2% | +0.0% | +69.2% |
| 2025-08-29 | +67.8% | −0.2% | +70.3% |
| 2025-08-26 | +67.6% | −1.5% | +68.0% |
4,685 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.
Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.
iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.- DCF (intrinsic)$196.22
- Analyst target · range $31.00–$31.00$31.00
- Current price · last close 2026-09-16$28.07
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-14 | Locke Lori C. | officer | Sale | 29,115 @ $28.13 | $819K | −25.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 86,906 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-11 | FISHER RICHARD W | director | Sale | 6,700 @ $28.06 | $188K | −11.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 52,846 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-10 | LOWE KENNETH W | director | Sale | 200,000 @ $28.23 | $5.6M | −25.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 590,108 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-09 | Girdwood Amy | officer | Sale | 262,285 @ $27.98 | $7.3M | −32.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 539,374 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-03 | LEVY ANTON J | director | Sale | 340,000 @ $28.39 | $9.7M | −35.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 618,067 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-03 | LOWE KENNETH W | director | Sale | 200,000 @ $28.35 | $5.7M | −20.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 790,108 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-27 | Perrette Jean-Briac | officer | Sale | 126,707 @ $28.96 | $3.7M | −10.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,047,016 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-14 | Zaslav David | director | Sale | 194,999 @ $28.02 | $5.5M | −2.8% of holding | +2.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 6,807,934 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-13 | Zaslav David | director | Sale | 678,267 @ $28.01 | $19.0M | −9.1% of holding | +3.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 6,807,934 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-13 | Zaslav David | director | Sale | 94,906 @ $28.00 | $2.7M | −1.4% of holding | +3.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 6,807,934 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-13 | Merchant Fazal F | director | Sale | 71,539 @ $27.75 | $2.0M | −68.4% of holding | +3.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 33,067 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-12 | FISHER RICHARD W | director | Sale | 20,000 @ $27.46 | $549K | −25.1% of holding | +2.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 59,546 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-11 | LOWE KENNETH W | director | Sale | 120,000 @ $26.97 | $3.2M | −10.8% of holding | +5.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 990,108 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-10 | Zeiler Gerhard | officer | Sale | 201,656 @ $27.07 | $5.5M | −27.3% of holding | +5.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 537,436 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-10 | Zeiler Gerhard | officer | Sale | 196,691 @ $27.04 | $5.3M | −26.8% of holding | +5.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 537,436 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-10 | Zeiler Gerhard | officer | Sale | 100,000 @ $27.06 | $2.7M | −15.7% of holding | +5.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 537,436 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-10 | Zeiler Gerhard | officer | Sale | 92,691 @ $27.02 | $2.5M | −14.7% of holding | +5.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 537,436 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-13 | Zaslav David | director | Sale | 2,089,876 @ $27.22 | $56.9M | −23.0% of holding | −2.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 6,997,746 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-13 | Zaslav David | director | Sale | 94,906 @ $27.22 | $2.6M | −1.4% of holding | −2.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 6,902,840 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-16 | Perrette Jean-Briac | officer | Sale | 659,120 @ $27.42 | $18.1M | −36.0% of holding | −6.0% | −11.9% | 1,173,723 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-16 | GOULD PAUL A | director | Sale | 600,000 @ $27.35 | $16.4M | −71.1% of holding | −6.0% | −11.9% | 244,357 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-16 | Merchant Fazal F | director | Sale | 35,000 @ $27.48 | $962K | −26.8% of holding | −6.0% | −11.9% | 95,539 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-10 | Aiyar Priya | officer | Sale | 77,243 @ $27.85 | $2.2M | −7.9% of holding | −1.5% | −12.6% | 897,844 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-10 | Aiyar Priya | officer | Sale | 21,408 @ $27.85 | $596K | −2.3% of holding | −1.5% | −12.6% | 897,844 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-09 | Campbell Bruce | officer | Sale | 41,784 @ $27.82 | $1.2M | −6.5% of holding | −0.7% | −12.2% | 604,666 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-04 | Campbell Bruce | officer | Sale | 825,222 @ $28.00 | $23.1M | −54.5% of holding | +1.8% | −10.7% | 690,028 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-04 | Zeiler Gerhard | officer | Sale | 600,000 @ $28.02 | $16.8M | −47.1% of holding | +1.8% | −10.7% | 672,649 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-04 | Campbell Bruce | officer | Sale | 285,679 @ $28.00 | $8.0M | −19.0% of holding | +1.8% | −10.7% | 1,215,250 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-04 | Campbell Bruce | officer | Sale | 183,346 @ $28.00 | $5.1M | −13.1% of holding | +1.8% | −10.7% | 1,215,250 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-04 | Campbell Bruce | officer | Sale | 139,323 @ $28.00 | $3.9M | −10.3% of holding | +1.8% | −10.7% | 1,215,250 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-04 | Wiedenfels Gunnar | officer | Sale | 131,127 @ $28.05 | $3.7M | −15.9% of holding | +1.8% | −10.7% | 691,570 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-04 | Campbell Bruce | officer | Sale | 131,313 @ $28.00 | $3.7M | −9.8% of holding | +1.8% | −10.7% | 1,215,250 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-04 | Wiedenfels Gunnar | officer | Sale | 123,588 @ $28.05 | $3.5M | −15.2% of holding | +1.8% | −10.7% | 691,570 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-04 | Wiedenfels Gunnar | officer | Sale | 91,418 @ $28.05 | $2.6M | −11.7% of holding | +1.8% | −10.7% | 691,570 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-04 | Campbell Bruce | officer | Sale | 53,795 @ $28.00 | $1.5M | −100.0% of holding | +1.8% | −10.7% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-04 | Wiedenfels Gunnar | officer | Sale | 28,190 @ $28.05 | $791K | −4.1% of holding | +1.8% | −10.7% | 663,380 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-04 | Campbell Bruce | officer | Sale | 15,448 @ $28.00 | $433K | −1.3% of holding | +1.8% | −10.7% | 1,215,250 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-04 | Campbell Bruce | officer | Sale | 1,323 @ $28.00 | $37K | −100.0% of holding | +1.8% | −10.7% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-03 | Zaslav David | director | Sale | 4,004,149 @ $28.26 | $113.2M | −35.7% of holding | +0.9% | −12.1% | 7,200,627 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-03 | Wiedenfels Gunnar | officer | Sale | 617,580 @ $28.25 | $17.4M | −47.2% of holding | +0.9% | −12.1% | 691,570 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-03 | Aiyar Priya | officer | Sale | 223,512 @ $28.24 | $6.3M | −19.6% of holding | +0.9% | −12.1% | 919,252 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-03 | Girdwood Amy | officer | Sale | 75,030 @ $28.25 | $2.1M | −6.8% of holding | +0.9% | −12.1% | 1,027,283 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-03 | FISHER RICHARD W | director | Sale | 16,345 @ $28.31 | $463K | −18.8% of holding | +0.9% | −12.1% | 70,479 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-10 | Wiedenfels Gunnar | officer | Sale | 150,402 @ $29.50 | $4.4M | −14.1% of holding | −5.2% | −17.1% | 918,940 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-10 | Wiedenfels Gunnar | officer | Sale | 92,592 @ $29.50 | $2.7M | −9.2% of holding | −5.2% | −17.1% | 918,940 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-10 | Locke Lori C. | officer | Sale | 4,122 @ $28.92 | $119K | −3.9% of holding | −5.2% | −17.1% | 100,962 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-12-09 | Locke Lori C. | officer | Sale | 5,000 @ $27.45 | $137K | −4.5% of holding | +0.3% | −13.6% | 105,084 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-08 | Locke Lori C. | officer | Sale | 5,000 @ $27.62 | $138K | −4.3% of holding | +2.8% | −10.4% | 110,084 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-05 | Locke Lori C. | officer | Sale | 5,000 @ $25.42 | $127K | −4.2% of holding | +8.8% | −6.3% | 115,084 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-12-04 | Locke Lori C. | officer | Sale | 5,000 @ $24.14 | $121K | −4.0% of holding | +14.6% | −0.8% | 120,084 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-03 | Locke Lori C. | officer | Sale | 5,000 @ $24.18 | $121K | −3.8% of holding | +15.3% | −1.7% | 125,084 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-12-02 | Locke Lori C. | officer | Sale | 5,000 @ $24.25 | $121K | −3.7% of holding | +15.7% | −1.6% | 130,084 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-01 | Locke Lori C. | officer | Sale | 5,000 @ $23.74 | $119K | −3.6% of holding | +20.2% | +1.6% | 135,084 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-28 | Locke Lori C. | officer | Sale | 5,000 @ $23.83 | $119K | −3.4% of holding | +19.8% | +1.5% | 140,084 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-11-26 | Locke Lori C. | officer | Sale | 5,000 @ $23.25 | $116K | −3.3% of holding | +19.1% | +1.9% | 145,084 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-31 | Wiedenfels Gunnar | officer | Sale | 222,210 @ $22.50 | $5.0M | −19.5% of holding | +9.3% | +14.5% | 918,940 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-15 | Wiedenfels Gunnar | officer | Sale | 222,210 @ $19.50 | $4.3M | −16.3% of holding | −8.1% | +40.0% | 1,141,150 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-15 | Wiedenfels Gunnar | officer | Sale | 177,456 @ $19.50 | $3.5M | −13.5% of holding | −8.1% | +40.0% | 1,141,150 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-15 | Wiedenfels Gunnar | officer | Sale | 131,127 @ $19.50 | $2.6M | −10.3% of holding | −8.1% | +40.0% | 1,141,150 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-12 | Campbell Bruce | officer | Sale | 150,000 @ $18.00 | $2.7M | −37.3% of holding | −6.9% | +43.4% | 252,464 | Form 4 · filed same day |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
167 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-17 | Wiedenfels Gunnar | officer | Award / grant | 71,455 | 691,257 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | Zaslav David | director | Option exercise | 194,999 | 7,002,933 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | Zaslav David | director | Option exercise | 194,999 | 17,935,634 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-13 | Zaslav David | director | Option exercise | 678,267 | 7,486,201 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-13 | Zaslav David | director | Option exercise | 678,267 | 18,130,633 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-11 | Di Piazza Samuel A Jr. | director | Discretionary | 82,415 | 130,661 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-10 | Zeiler Gerhard | officer | Option exercise | 201,656 | 739,092 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-10 | Zeiler Gerhard | officer | Option exercise | 196,691 | 734,127 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-10 | Zeiler Gerhard | officer | Option exercise | 92,691 | 630,127 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-10 | Zeiler Gerhard | officer | Option exercise | 201,656 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-10 | Zeiler Gerhard | officer | Option exercise | 92,691 | 188,193 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-10 | Zeiler Gerhard | officer | Option exercise | 196,691 | 101,326 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-13 | Zaslav David | director | Option exercise | 2,089,876 | 9,087,622 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-13 | Zaslav David | director | Option exercise | 2,089,876 | 18,808,900 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | Noto Anthony | director | Award / grant | 1,079 | 53,444 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-12 | Zaslav David | director | Withheld for tax | 202,881 | 6,997,746 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-09 | Sanchez Daniel E. | director | Award / grant | 9,067 | 53,121 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-09 | Di Piazza Samuel A Jr. | director | Award / grant | 9,067 | 213,076 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-09 | FISHER RICHARD W | director | Award / grant | 9,067 | 79,546 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-09 | GOULD PAUL A | director | Award / grant | 9,067 | 253,424 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-09 | LEE DEBRA L | director | Award / grant | 9,067 | 75,873 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-09 | LEVIN JOSEPH | director | Award / grant | 9,067 | 43,604 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-09 | LEVY ANTON J | director | Award / grant | 9,067 | 958,067 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-09 | LOWE KENNETH W | director | Award / grant | 9,067 | 1,110,108 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-09 | Merchant Fazal F | director | Award / grant | 9,067 | 104,606 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-09 | Noto Anthony | director | Award / grant | 9,067 | 52,365 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-09 | Price Paula A | director | Award / grant | 9,067 | 92,218 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-09 | YANG GEOFFREY Y | director | Award / grant | 9,067 | 127,119 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-04 | Price Paula A | director | Discretionary | 11,046 | 83,151 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-15 | Girdwood Amy | officer | Withheld for tax | 225,624 | 801,659 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-27 | Price Paula A | director | Award / grant | 1,340 | 94,197 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-27 | Noto Anthony | director | Award / grant | 1,063 | 43,298 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-10 | Aiyar Priya | officer | Option exercise | 77,243 | 975,087 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-10 | Aiyar Priya | officer | Option exercise | 77,243 | 156,827 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-10 | LEE DEBRA L | director | Gift | 16,345 | 66,806 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-06 | Wiedenfels Gunnar | officer | Withheld for tax | 43,578 | 619,802 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-06 | Campbell Bruce | officer | Withheld for tax | 43,578 | 646,450 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-06 | Perrette Jean-Briac | officer | Withheld for tax | 43,433 | 1,832,843 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-06 | Zeiler Gerhard | officer | Withheld for tax | 35,213 | 637,436 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-04 | Campbell Bruce | officer | Option exercise | 183,346 | 1,398,596 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.
As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date
A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).
| Member | Chamber | Type | Filed | Traded | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alan Armstrong | Senate | purchase | 2026-07-21 | 2026-03-27 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-07-06 | 2026-06-16 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-05-11 | 2026-04-13 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-04-07 | 2026-03-30 | $1–15K |
| August Lee Pfluger Ii | House | sale | 2026-03-19 | 2026-02-10 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-03-09 | 2026-02-06 | $1–15K |
| Gilbert Cisneros | House | sale | 2026-03-09 | 2026-02-10 | $1–15K |
| Gilbert Cisneros | House | purchase | 2026-02-13 | 2026-01-09 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-02-06 | 2026-01-23 | $1–15K |
| Julia Letlow | House | purchase | 2026-01-13 | 2024-11-01 | $1–15K |
| Julia Letlow | House | sale | 2026-01-13 | 2025-07-25 | $1–15K |
| Julia Letlow | House | sale | 2026-01-13 | 2025-12-08 | $1–15K |
| Gilbert Cisneros | House | purchase | 2025-12-15 | 2025-11-18 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2025-10-03 | 2025-09-29 | $1–15K |
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.