Issued 2026-09-16 at $6.50 · now $6.50 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, WB has typically landed between $5.06 and $7.86 — a range of −22.1% to +21.0% from the issuance price $6.50.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
3,089 overlapping 1 month windows · 2014-04-17 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($6.50) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where WB has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $6.5 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $6.5 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $6.3 (-3.1%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $5.77–$6.83
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $5.06–$7.86
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2019-05-01 | −38.9% | −38.9% | +1.2% |
| 2019-05-02 | −38.8% | −38.8% | +2.5% |
| 2022-09-23 | −38.7% | −38.7% | +0.9% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2024-09-06 | +60.7% | −2.1% | +60.7% |
| 2024-09-05 | +57.8% | −3.4% | +57.8% |
| 2017-04-19 | +56.3% | +0.0% | +56.3% |
3,089 overlapping windows · 2014-04-17 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~13 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
13 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-26 | WANG YAN | director | Disposition | 31,200 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | Du Hong | director | Withheld for tax | 3,105 | 107,870 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-16 | Du Hong | director | Option exercise | 6,250 | 110,975 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-16 | Du Hong | director | Conversion | 6,250 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-16 | WANG YAN | director | Option exercise | 6,250 | 31,200 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-16 | WANG YAN | director | Conversion | 6,250 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-05 | Wang Gaofei | director | Other acquisition | 374,791 | 374,791 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-05 | Wang Gaofei | director | Other acquisition | 374,791 | 731,836 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-23 | Wang Gaofei | director | Other acquisition | 374,791 | 1,106,627 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-16 | Lu Pochin Christopher | director | Option exercise | 6,250 | 51,950 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-16 | Lu Pochin Christopher | director | Option exercise | 6,250 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-16 | CHEN PEHONG | director | Option exercise | 6,250 | 31,250 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-16 | CHEN PEHONG | director | Option exercise | 6,250 | 0 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.
As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date
A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).
| Member | Chamber | Type | Filed | Traded | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donna Shalala | House | sale | 2020-04-27 | 2019-01-15 | $1–15K |
| Donna Shalala | House | sale | 2020-04-27 | 2019-01-14 | $1–15K |
| Donna Shalala | House | sale | 2020-04-27 | 2019-01-11 | $1–15K |
| Greg Gianforte | Senate | sale | 2019-03-06 | 2019-01-18 | $100–250K |
| Greg Gianforte | Senate | purchase | 2019-01-23 | 2018-12-21 | $100–250K |
| Josh Gottheimer | House | sale | 2019-01-04 | 2018-12-18 | $1–15K |
| Greg Gianforte | Senate | sale | 2018-12-11 | 2018-11-20 | $100–250K |
| Greg Gianforte | Senate | purchase | 2018-10-09 | 2018-10-03 | $15–50K |
| Josh Gottheimer | House | purchase | 2018-08-13 | 2017-09-26 | $1–15K |
| Greg Gianforte | Senate | purchase | 2017-12-07 | 2017-12-01 | $50–100K |
| Greg Gianforte | Senate | purchase | 2017-10-09 | 2017-09-26 | $100–250K |
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.