Issued 2026-09-16 at $26.59 · now $26.59 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, WAY has typically landed between $22.24 and $31.49 — a range of −16.4% to +18.4% from the issuance price $26.59.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
549 overlapping 1 month windows · 2024-06-07 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($26.59) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where WAY has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $26.59 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $26.59 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $26.94 (+1.3%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $25.05–$28.84
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $22.24–$31.49
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 549 windows spanning 2024-06-07 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2026-01-09 | −31.9% | −32.0% | +0.0% |
| 2026-04-16 | −29.2% | −29.2% | +5.5% |
| 2026-01-08 | −29.1% | −29.1% | +4.3% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2024-08-07 | +26.7% | +0.0% | +26.7% |
| 2024-12-04 | +25.5% | +0.0% | +27.8% |
| 2026-07-30 | +25.3% | +0.0% | +25.3% |
549 overlapping windows · 2024-06-07 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~3 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
50%
−4.7%
n=2
Feb
50%
+2.4%
n=2
Mar
0%
−10.0%
n=2
Apr
0%
−5.9%
n=2
May
50%
+0.3%
n=2
Jun
100%
+2.7%
n=2
Jul
67%
+0.1%
n=3
Aug
100%
+14.9%
n=3
Sep
100%
+1.4%
n=3
Oct
50%
−1.6%
n=2
Nov
100%
+5.6%
n=2
Dec
50%
+3.8%
n=2
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-02 | Hawkins Matthew J. | director | Sale | 82,500 @ $25.97 | $2.1M | −4.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,804,794 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-13 | Hawkins Matthew J. | director | Sale | 60,038 @ $25.01 | $1.5M | −3.2% of holding | +1.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,835,081 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-11 | Hawkins Matthew J. | director | Sale | 22,462 @ $25.04 | $562K | −1.2% of holding | −3.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,835,081 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-16 | Hawkins Matthew J. | director | Sale | 36,901 @ $23.09 | $852K | −3.8% of holding | +3.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 926,816 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-15 | Hawkins Matthew J. | director | Sale | 33,099 @ $23.02 | $762K | −3.4% of holding | +7.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 926,816 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | MILLER HEIDI | director | Purchase | 7,200 @ $26.25 | $189K | ownership Δ n/a | −3.2% | −12.6% | 7,200 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-20 | Sinclair III Eric L. (Ric) | officer | Sale | 40,225 @ $30.08 | $1.2M | −7.8% of holding | −14.3% | −41.0% | 474,826 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-22 | Sinclair III Eric L. (Ric) | officer | Sale | 9,701 @ $32.82 | $318K | −2.0% of holding | −9.5% | −50.2% | 474,826 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-10 | Schremser Christopher L. | officer | Sale | 8,623 @ $30.41 | $262K | −2.0% of holding | +2.5% | −46.8% | 422,371 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-25 | Miller Melissa F. (Missy) | officer | Sale | 3,400 @ $37.00 | $126K | −1.7% of holding | −13.4% | −58.9% | 193,261 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-20 | Sinclair III Eric L. (Ric) | officer | Sale | 9,701 @ $35.27 | $342K | −2.0% of holding | −10.7% | −59.0% | 474,826 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-10 | Schremser Christopher L. | officer | Sale | 8,623 @ $36.12 | $311K | −2.0% of holding | −16.7% | −57.8% | 422,371 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-20 | Sinclair III Eric L. (Ric) | officer | Sale | 9,701 @ $36.94 | $358K | −2.0% of holding | −4.0% | −37.9% | 474,826 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-10-15 | Hawkins Matthew J. | director | Sale | 200 @ $38.00 | $8K | −0.0% of holding | −3.7% | −37.1% | 717,474 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-10 | Schremser Christopher L. | officer | Sale | 8,623 @ $36.21 | $312K | −2.0% of holding | −3.2% | −44.1% | 422,371 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-23 | Hawkins Matthew J. | director | Sale | 12,800 @ $38.08 | $487K | −1.8% of holding | −0.9% | −35.7% | 717,474 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-22 | Hawkins Matthew J. | director | Sale | 12,200 @ $38.08 | $465K | −1.7% of holding | −1.1% | −34.8% | 717,474 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-22 | Sinclair III Eric L. (Ric) | officer | Sale | 9,701 @ $37.63 | $365K | −2.0% of holding | −1.1% | −34.8% | 474,826 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-12 | Derby LuxCo S.a r.l. | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 7,766,088 @ $39.21 | $304.5M | −23.8% of holding | −4.3% | −36.5% | 24,879,437 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-12 | CANADA PENSION PLAN INVESTMENT BOARD | other | Sale | 5,938,773 @ $39.21 | $232.9M | −23.8% of holding | −4.3% | −36.5% | 19,025,452 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-12 | BAIN CAPITAL INVESTORS LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 4,295,139 @ $39.21 | $168.4M | −23.8% of holding | −4.3% | −36.5% | 13,759,910 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-12 | Moskowitz Paul G | director | Sale | 4,295,139 @ $39.21 | $168.4M | −23.8% of holding | −4.3% | −36.5% | 13,759,910 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-10 | Oreskovich Steven M | officer | Sale | 16,666 @ $40.49 | $675K | −4.5% of holding | −10.8% | −41.9% | 354,512 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-10 | Schremser Christopher L. | officer | Sale | 8,623 @ $40.49 | $349K | −2.0% of holding | −10.8% | −41.9% | 422,371 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-08 | Bridge T. Craig | officer | Sale | 85,000 @ $40.06 | $3.4M | −12.7% of holding | −10.6% | −44.2% | 583,355 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-08 | Sinclair III Eric L. (Ric) | officer | Sale | 19,404 @ $40.03 | $777K | −3.9% of holding | −10.6% | −44.2% | 474,826 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-26 | Miller Melissa F. (Missy) | officer | Sale | 3,400 @ $37.01 | $126K | −1.7% of holding | −2.5% | −37.4% | 193,261 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-20 | Sinclair III Eric L. (Ric) | officer | Sale | 9,702 @ $35.11 | $341K | −1.9% of holding | +3.4% | −37.2% | 490,870 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-08-12 | Hawkins Matthew J. | director | Sale | 46,667 @ $34.66 | $1.6M | −5.8% of holding | +8.6% | −39.7% | 764,131 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-08-11 | Schremser Christopher L. | officer | Sale | 8,623 @ $34.49 | $297K | −1.9% of holding | +14.9% | −41.3% | 438,044 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-07-21 | Bridge T. Craig | officer | Sale | 85,000 @ $37.09 | $3.2M | −11.1% of holding | −5.4% | −27.9% | 682,843 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-07-21 | Sinclair III Eric L. (Ric) | officer | Sale | 9,702 @ $37.10 | $360K | −1.9% of holding | −5.4% | −27.9% | 490,870 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-07-15 | Hawkins Matthew J. | director | Sale | 46,667 @ $38.26 | $1.8M | −5.8% of holding | −10.6% | −31.6% | 764,131 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-07-10 | Schremser Christopher L. | officer | Sale | 8,623 @ $37.63 | $324K | −1.9% of holding | −9.9% | −22.9% | 438,044 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-06-25 | Sinclair III Eric L. (Ric) | officer | Sale | 9,702 @ $40.22 | $390K | −1.9% of holding | −13.1% | −29.8% | 490,870 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-06-20 | Sinclair III Eric L. (Ric) | officer | Sale | 9,702 @ $37.79 | $367K | −1.9% of holding | −8.8% | −27.7% | 490,870 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-11 | Oreskovich Steven M | officer | Sale | 16,396 @ $40.71 | $667K | −4.3% of holding | −9.5% | −39.9% | 368,550 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-06-11 | Bridge T. Craig | officer | Sale | 15,946 @ $40.71 | $649K | −2.0% of holding | −9.5% | −39.9% | 767,843 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-06-11 | Miller Melissa F. (Missy) | officer | Sale | 6,072 @ $40.71 | $247K | −3.1% of holding | −9.5% | −39.9% | 192,484 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-06-10 | Schremser Christopher L. | officer | Sale | 8,623 @ $40.58 | $350K | −1.9% of holding | −11.6% | −39.0% | 438,044 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-06-10 | Hawkins Matthew J. | director | Sale | 2,704 @ $40.57 | $110K | −0.4% of holding | −11.6% | −39.0% | 764,131 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-06-05 | Hawkins Matthew J. | director | Sale | 59,836 @ $40.18 | $2.4M | −7.3% of holding | −9.9% | −27.8% | 764,131 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-30 | Sinclair III Eric L. (Ric) | officer | Sale | 9,702 @ $40.00 | $388K | −1.9% of holding | −6.5% | −24.3% | 490,870 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-27 | Hawkins Matthew J. | director | Sale | 140,164 @ $39.03 | $5.5M | −15.5% of holding | −3.4% | −20.5% | 764,131 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-05-23 | Hawkins Matthew J. | director | Sale | 197,847 @ $38.53 | $7.6M | −20.6% of holding | −4.2% | −21.9% | 764,131 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-22 | Hawkins Matthew J. | director | Sale | 2,153 @ $39.15 | $84K | −2.7% of holding | −3.0% | −21.5% | 76,413 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-21 | Sinclair III Eric L. (Ric) | officer | Sale | 9,602 @ $39.16 | $376K | −1.9% of holding | −7.2% | −25.8% | 490,907 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-21 | Sinclair III Eric L. (Ric) | officer | Sale | 100 @ $39.55 | $4K | −0.0% of holding | −7.2% | −25.8% | 490,870 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-20 | Derby LuxCo S.a r.l. | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 806,459 @ $37.39 | $30.2M | −2.4% of holding | −5.5% | −24.0% | 32,645,525 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-05-20 | CANADA PENSION PLAN INVESTMENT BOARD | other | Sale | 616,704 @ $37.39 | $23.1M | −2.4% of holding | −5.5% | −24.0% | 24,964,225 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-05-20 | Moskowitz Paul G | director | Sale | 451,837 @ $37.39 | $16.9M | −2.4% of holding | −5.5% | −24.0% | 18,055,049 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-05-20 | BAIN CAPITAL INVESTORS LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 451,837 @ $37.39 | $16.9M | −2.4% of holding | −5.5% | −24.0% | 18,055,049 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-05-16 | Derby LuxCo S.a r.l. | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 5,376,390 @ $37.39 | $201.0M | −13.8% of holding | −3.1% | −23.9% | 33,451,984 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-16 | CANADA PENSION PLAN INVESTMENT BOARD | other | Sale | 4,111,357 @ $37.39 | $153.7M | −13.8% of holding | −3.1% | −23.9% | 25,580,929 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-16 | Moskowitz Paul G | director | Sale | 3,012,253 @ $37.39 | $112.6M | −13.8% of holding | −3.1% | −23.9% | 18,742,283 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-16 | BAIN CAPITAL INVESTORS LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 3,012,253 @ $37.39 | $112.6M | −13.8% of holding | −3.1% | −23.9% | 18,742,283 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-15 | Miller Melissa F. (Missy) | officer | Sale | 3,300 @ $39.16 | $129K | −1.6% of holding | −3.4% | −23.4% | 198,656 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-15 | Miller Melissa F. (Missy) | officer | Sale | 100 @ $40.06 | $4K | −0.1% of holding | −3.4% | −23.4% | 198,556 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-13 | Hawkins Matthew J. | director | Sale | 43,963 @ $38.94 | $1.7M | −5.4% of holding | −1.7% | −24.9% | 766,835 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-13 | Hawkins Matthew J. | director | Sale | 2,704 @ $39.46 | $107K | −0.4% of holding | −1.7% | −24.9% | 764,131 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
191 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-02 | Hawkins Matthew J. | director | Option exercise | 82,500 | 1,887,294 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-02 | Hawkins Matthew J. | director | Option exercise | 82,500 | 1,510,098 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Bridge T. Craig | officer | Withheld for tax | 30,792 | 833,234 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Hawkins Matthew J. | director | Withheld for tax | 30,287 | 1,804,794 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | PACKER GREGORY R | officer | Withheld for tax | 6,754 | 418,255 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | Khanna Amit | officer | Award / grant | 390,625 | 390,625 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-13 | Hawkins Matthew J. | director | Option exercise | 60,038 | 1,895,119 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-13 | Hawkins Matthew J. | director | Option exercise | 60,038 | 1,315,837 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-11 | Hawkins Matthew J. | director | Option exercise | 22,462 | 1,857,543 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-11 | Hawkins Matthew J. | director | Option exercise | 22,462 | 1,375,875 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | Woods Todd Charles | officer | Award / grant | 90,827 | 220,506 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | Bridge T. Craig | officer | Award / grant | 205,470 | 864,026 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | PACKER GREGORY R | officer | Award / grant | 232,061 | 425,009 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | Hawkins Matthew J. | director | Award / grant | 908,265 | 1,835,081 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-24 | Wegner Alpana | officer | Award / grant | 162,112 | 162,112 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-16 | Hawkins Matthew J. | director | Option exercise | 36,901 | 963,717 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-16 | Hawkins Matthew J. | director | Option exercise | 36,901 | 1,398,337 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-15 | Hawkins Matthew J. | director | Option exercise | 33,099 | 959,915 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-15 | Hawkins Matthew J. | director | Option exercise | 33,099 | 1,435,238 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-09 | Hawkins Matthew J. | director | Withheld for tax | 47,754 | 926,816 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-09 | Schremser Christopher L. | officer | Withheld for tax | 14,751 | 495,033 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-09 | Oreskovich Steven M | officer | Withheld for tax | 12,583 | 424,200 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-09 | Bridge T. Craig | officer | Withheld for tax | 12,212 | 658,556 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-09 | Miller Melissa F. (Missy) | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,887 | 252,077 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-09 | Wittman Kimberly S. | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,731 | 270,233 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-03 | Gupta Aashima | director | Award / grant | 9,303 | 14,437 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-03 | DRISCOLL JOHN PATRICK | director | Award / grant | 9,303 | 100,060 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-03 | DeMichiei Robert | director | Award / grant | 9,303 | 46,199 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-03 | Hung Priscilla | director | Award / grant | 9,303 | 23,132 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-03 | MILLER HEIDI | director | Award / grant | 9,303 | 40,917 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-03 | Riefberg Vivian E. | director | Award / grant | 9,303 | 23,132 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-03 | Roman Michael F | director | Award / grant | 9,303 | 14,437 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-06 | PACKER GREGORY R | officer | Withheld for tax | 4,016 | 192,948 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-09 | Miller Melissa F. (Missy) | officer | Award / grant | 61,703 | 254,964 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-09 | Oreskovich Steven M | officer | Award / grant | 82,271 | 436,783 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-09 | PACKER GREGORY R | officer | Award / grant | 65,817 | 196,964 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-09 | Schremser Christopher L. | officer | Award / grant | 87,413 | 509,784 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-09 | Wittman Kimberly S. | officer | Award / grant | 61,703 | 272,964 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-09 | Hawkins Matthew J. | director | Award / grant | 257,096 | 974,570 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-09 | Chan William | officer | Award / grant | 82,271 | 1,580,812 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.