Issued 2026-09-16 at $10.95 · now $10.95 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, WATT has typically landed between $7.24 and $16.43 — a range of −33.9% to +50.1% from the issuance price $10.95.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
3,110 overlapping 1 month windows · 2014-03-28 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($10.95) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where WATT has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $10.95 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $10.95 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $9.97 (-8.9%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $8.58–$11.36
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $7.24–$16.43
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2023-08-10 | −67.0% | −67.0% | +0.0% |
| 2023-08-08 | −66.3% | −66.3% | +0.0% |
| 2025-01-06 | −65.4% | −65.4% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2017-11-27 | +262.9% | −9.1% | +262.9% |
| 2020-04-02 | +255.6% | −7.6% | +255.6% |
| 2020-04-03 | +252.6% | +0.0% | +284.6% |
3,110 overlapping windows · 2014-03-28 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~13 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-27 | Burak Mallorie Sara | director | Purchase | 1,867 @ $26.47 | $49K | +7.4% of holding | −10.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 26,999 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-21 | Burak Mallorie Sara | director | Purchase | 6,400 @ $7.88 | $50K | +171.5% of holding | −3.2% | +29.8% | 10,132 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
16 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-17 | Burak Mallorie Sara | director | Award / grant | 146,266 | 173,265 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | DODSON J MICHAEL | director | Award / grant | 2,938 | 5,514 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | ROBERSON DAVID EARLE | director | Award / grant | 8,050 | 11,015 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | Patel Rahul G. | director | Award / grant | 3,021 | 5,579 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | Marino Giampaolo | officer | Award / grant | 43,100 | 53,633 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | Weinberg Peter M | officer | Award / grant | 22,667 | 27,500 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | Sadikoff Gregory | officer | Award / grant | 22,567 | 27,500 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-12 | Sadikoff Gregory | officer | Award / grant | 4,000 | 4,933 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-12 | Weinberg Peter M | officer | Award / grant | 4,000 | 4,833 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-12 | Burak Mallorie Sara | director | Award / grant | 15,000 | 25,132 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-12 | DODSON J MICHAEL | director | Award / grant | 2,395 | 2,576 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-12 | Patel Rahul G. | director | Award / grant | 2,395 | 2,558 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-12 | ROBERSON DAVID EARLE | director | Award / grant | 2,750 | 2,965 | Form 4 |
| 2025-01-02 | DODSON J MICHAEL | director | Award / grant | 1,250 | 5,486 | Form 4 |
| 2025-01-02 | Patel Rahul G. | director | Award / grant | 1,250 | 4,909 | Form 4 |
| 2025-01-02 | ROBERSON DAVID EARLE | director | Award / grant | 2,250 | 6,486 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.