WAL · TickerCove

WALWestern Alliance BancorporationFinancial Services · Banks - Regionalas of 2026-09-16

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $77.80 · now $77.80 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, WAL has typically landed between $63.36 and $94.65 — a range of −18.6% to +21.7% from the issuance price $77.80.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

5,002 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($77.80) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$77.8 · 40% of range

$66.33 low$95.1 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-16 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,408 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

53.9%

90% CI 51.7%–56.1%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

+0.7%

typical move · IQR 15.8%

−18.6%worst (p90)+21.7%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

0 buys · 0 sells · 0 members

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where WAL has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $77.8 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $77.8 (+0.0%)
typical $78.33 (+0.7%)
middle 50% $72.18–$84.49
90% range $63.36–$94.65

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,002 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2023-02-09	−65.5%	−65.5%	+0.1%
2020-02-18	−61.2%	−61.2%	+1.8%
2023-02-16	−60.5%	−64.7%	+2.3%
3 best
2009-04-08	+114.7%	+0.0%	+114.7%
2008-07-14	+111.2%	−1.0%	+111.2%
2008-07-15	+110.8%	+0.0%	+113.2%

5,002 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

55%

+3.6%

n=20

Feb

45%

−1.1%

n=20

Mar

45%

−5.1%

n=20

Apr

70%

+7.6%

n=20

May

40%

−1.4%

n=20

Jun

45%

−1.3%

n=20

Jul

60%

+5.7%

n=20

Aug

55%

+0.5%

n=20

Sep

50%

+0.7%

n=20

Oct

55%

+1.2%

n=20

Nov

60%

+4.0%

n=20

Dec

45%

+0.6%

n=20

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

300 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-08-15	Vecchione Kenneth	director	Disposition	595	463,178	Form 4
2026-08-15	Vecchione Kenneth	director	Disposition	539	463,178	Form 4
2026-08-15	Vecchione Kenneth	director	Disposition	437	463,178	Form 4
2026-08-15	GIBBONS DALE	officer	Disposition	285	267,093	Form 4
2026-08-15	GIBBONS DALE	officer	Disposition	229	267,093	Form 4
2026-08-15	GIBBONS DALE	officer	Disposition	212	267,093	Form 4
2026-08-15	Bruckner Tim R	officer	Disposition	158	29,068	Form 4
2026-08-15	Bruckner Tim R	officer	Disposition	142	29,068	Form 4
2026-08-15	Idnani Vishal	officer	Disposition	123	11,468	Form 4
2026-08-15	Bruckner Tim R	officer	Disposition	115	29,068	Form 4
2026-08-15	Kennedy Barbara	officer	Disposition	101	10,332	Form 4
2026-08-15	Boothe Timothy W	officer	Disposition	97	65,417	Form 4
2026-08-15	Kennedy Barbara	officer	Disposition	82	10,332	Form 4
2026-08-15	Kennedy Barbara	officer	Disposition	74	10,332	Form 4
2026-08-15	Nachlas Emily	officer	Disposition	72	16,575	Form 4
2026-08-15	Boothe Timothy W	officer	Disposition	69	65,417	Form 4
2026-08-15	Jarvi Jessica H	officer	Disposition	64	13,707	Form 4
2026-08-15	Nachlas Emily	officer	Disposition	64	16,575	Form 4
2026-08-15	Jarvi Jessica H	officer	Disposition	58	13,707	Form 4
2026-08-15	Nachlas Emily	officer	Disposition	53	16,575	Form 4
2026-08-15	Jarvi Jessica H	officer	Disposition	46	13,707	Form 4
2026-08-15	Herndon Lynne	officer	Disposition	35	1,880	Form 4
2026-08-15	Herndon Lynne	officer	Disposition	27	1,880	Form 4
2026-08-15	Herndon Lynne	officer	Disposition	22	1,880	Form 4
2026-08-15	GIBBONS DALE	officer	Option exercise	229	267,322	Form 4
2026-08-15	Vecchione Kenneth	director	Option exercise	437	463,615	Form 4
2026-08-15	Kennedy Barbara	officer	Option exercise	101	10,433	Form 4
2026-08-15	Kennedy Barbara	officer	Option exercise	82	10,414	Form 4
2026-08-15	Nachlas Emily	officer	Option exercise	53	16,628	Form 4
2026-08-15	GIBBONS DALE	officer	Option exercise	212	267,305	Form 4
2026-08-15	Bruckner Tim R	officer	Option exercise	115	29,183	Form 4
2026-08-15	Jarvi Jessica H	officer	Option exercise	64	13,771	Form 4
2026-08-15	Herndon Lynne	officer	Option exercise	22	1,902	Form 4
2026-08-15	Jarvi Jessica H	officer	Option exercise	46	13,753	Form 4
2026-08-15	Herndon Lynne	officer	Option exercise	27	1,907	Form 4
2026-08-15	Jarvi Jessica H	officer	Option exercise	58	13,765	Form 4
2026-08-15	GIBBONS DALE	officer	Option exercise	285	267,378	Form 4
2026-08-15	Bruckner Tim R	officer	Option exercise	142	29,210	Form 4
2026-08-15	Vecchione Kenneth	director	Option exercise	539	463,717	Form 4
2026-08-15	Kennedy Barbara	officer	Option exercise	74	10,406	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Resolves in i

28d remaining

2026-09-173% elapsed2026-10-15

Logged immutably 2026-09-17; scored automatically on 2026-10-15 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Congressional disclosures

Seasonality · by month i