WAFD · TickerCove

WAFDWaFd, Inc.Financial Services · Banks - Regionalas of 2026-09-16

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $32.79 · now $32.79 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, WAFD has typically landed between $29.17 and $37.20 — a range of −11.0% to +13.4% from the issuance price $32.79.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($32.79) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$32.79 · 46% of range

$27.15 low$39.32 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-16 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,408 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

53.9%

90% CI 51.7%–56.1%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

−0.2%

typical move · IQR 11.0%

−11.0%worst (p90)+13.4%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

0 buys · 0 sells · 0 members

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where WAFD has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $32.79 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $32.79 (+0.0%)
typical $32.74 (-0.2%)
middle 50% $30.94–$34.53
90% range $29.17–$37.2

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,003 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2020-02-21	−37.4%	−37.4%	+0.0%
2008-06-13	−35.7%	−35.7%	+2.0%
2008-06-12	−33.4%	−33.4%	+1.4%
3 best
2008-08-19	+39.9%	−5.7%	+39.9%
2009-03-05	+37.3%	+0.0%	+37.6%
2024-06-21	+35.2%	+0.0%	+35.2%

5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

50%

−0.9%

n=20

Feb

55%

+0.6%

n=20

Mar

50%

−0.1%

n=20

Apr

50%

+0.6%

n=20

May

55%

−0.9%

n=20

Jun

65%

+0.9%

n=20

Jul

65%

+3.5%

n=20

Aug

50%

−0.7%

n=20

Sep

45%

−1.2%

n=20

Oct

60%

+2.4%

n=20

Nov

55%

+2.3%

n=20

Dec

55%

+1.2%

n=20

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing
2026-04-24	Robison Kim E	officer	Sale	22,000 @ $35.28	$776K	−15.9% of holding	−2.2%	not yet — horizon still open	116,099	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-02-06	Cooper Cathy E	officer	Sale	5,300 @ $33.77	$179K	−5.3% of holding	−6.0%	+0.0%	94,755	Form 4 · filed same day
2025-12-03	BEARDALL BRENT J	director	Purchase	3,000 @ $16.85	$51K	+100.0% of holding	+0.2%	+4.0%	6,000	Form 4 · filed same day
2025-11-26	BEARDALL BRENT J	director	Purchase	3,000 @ $16.55	$50K	ownership Δ n/a	+0.5%	−2.0%	3,000	Form 4 · filed same day
2025-09-17	Singleton Sean	director	Sale	1,004 @ $31.71	$32K	−9.8% of holding	−11.0%	+0.9%	9,278	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

49 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-02-27	Sanden Blayne	officer	Withheld for tax	46	5,087	Form 4
2026-01-20	Sanden Blayne	officer	Award / grant	750	5,133	Form 4
2026-01-02	BROWER LINDA S	director	Award / grant	3,310	63,758	Form 4
2026-01-02	GRANT DAVID K	director	Award / grant	3,310	67,261	Form 4
2026-01-02	Bice Shawn	director	Award / grant	3,310	12,713	Form 4
2026-01-02	SINGH SUDHIR STEVEN	director	Award / grant	3,310	22,891	Form 4
2026-01-02	SHUSTER BRADLEY M	director	Award / grant	3,310	26,611	Form 4
2026-01-02	YZAGUIRRE MARIO MAX	director	Award / grant	3,310	11,396	Form 4
2026-01-02	GRAHAM STEPHEN	director	Award / grant	3,310	21,828	Form 4
2026-01-02	Hampel Sylvia	director	Award / grant	3,310	16,729	Form 4
2026-01-02	Singleton Sean	director	Award / grant	3,310	12,429	Form 4
2026-01-02	TALBOT RANDALL H	director	Award / grant	3,310	66,511	Form 4
2026-01-02	BROWER LINDA S	director	Withheld for tax	993	62,765	Form 4
2026-01-02	Singleton Sean	director	Withheld for tax	808	11,621	Form 4
2026-01-02	Sanden Blayne	officer	Award / grant	456	456	Form 4
2025-12-29	BEARDALL BRENT J	director	Gift	2,273	366,892	Form 4
2025-11-11	BEARDALL BRENT J	director	Award / grant	83,116	368,124	Form 4
2025-11-11	HOLZ KELLI	officer	Award / grant	21,609	114,027	Form 4
2025-11-11	Cooper Cathy E	officer	Award / grant	21,609	99,752	Form 4
2025-11-11	Mauer Ryan	officer	Award / grant	21,609	126,740	Form 4
2025-11-11	Robison Kim E	officer	Award / grant	21,609	137,126	Form 4
2025-10-31	BEARDALL BRENT J	director	Withheld for tax	9,652	290,212	Form 4
2025-10-31	BEARDALL BRENT J	director	Other acquisition	5,204	285,008	Form 4
2025-10-31	HOLZ KELLI	officer	Withheld for tax	3,090	92,418	Form 4
2025-10-31	Robison Kim E	officer	Withheld for tax	2,982	115,517	Form 4
2025-10-31	Cooper Cathy E	officer	Withheld for tax	2,982	78,143	Form 4
2025-10-31	Mauer Ryan	officer	Withheld for tax	2,982	105,131	Form 4
2025-10-31	Sanden Blayne	officer	Withheld for tax	205	4,383	Form 4
2025-10-31	Robison Kim E	officer	Disposition	11,296	118,499	Form 4
2025-10-31	Mauer Ryan	officer	Disposition	11,296	108,113	Form 4
2025-10-31	Cooper Cathy E	officer	Disposition	11,296	81,125	Form 4
2025-10-31	BEARDALL BRENT J	director	Disposition	50,960	299,864	Form 4
2025-10-31	HOLZ KELLI	officer	Disposition	10,630	95,508	Form 4
2025-09-19	Singleton Sean	director	Gift	160	9,118	Form 4
2025-02-28	Sanden Blayne	officer	Award / grant	750	4,588	Form 4
2025-02-28	Sanden Blayne	officer	Award / grant	497	497	Form 4
2025-01-16	Endrizzi James	officer	Disposition	37,843	95,043	Form 4
2025-01-02	SHUSTER BRADLEY M	director	Award / grant	4,839	23,301	Form 4
2025-01-02	GRANT DAVID K	director	Award / grant	3,288	63,951	Form 4
2025-01-02	BROWER LINDA S	director	Award / grant	3,288	61,435	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Resolves in i

28d remaining

2026-09-173% elapsed2026-10-15

Logged immutably 2026-09-17; scored automatically on 2026-10-15 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Congressional disclosures

Seasonality · by month i