Issued 2026-09-16 at $276.37 · now $276.37 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, WAB has typically landed between $250.97 and $310.44 — a range of −9.2% to +12.3% from the issuance price $276.37.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
4,685 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($276.37) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where WAB has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $276.37 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $276.37 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $283.35 (+2.5%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $270.51–$296.2
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $250.97–$310.44
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2020-02-18 | −48.7% | −48.7% | +0.0% |
| 2020-02-20 | −48.3% | −48.3% | +0.0% |
| 2020-02-21 | −47.6% | −48.1% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2009-03-30 | +49.1% | +0.0% | +49.1% |
| 2009-03-31 | +44.5% | +0.0% | +47.5% |
| 2009-03-25 | +44.2% | −1.3% | +44.2% |
4,685 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.
Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.
iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 74 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.- DCF (intrinsic)$243.91
- Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 30.7× · n=74$228.06
- Analyst target · range $291.00–$355.00$335.00
- Current price · last close 2026-09-16$276.37
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-02 | Santana Rafael | director | Sale | 370 @ $279.21 | $103K | −0.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 117,959 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-02 | Santana Rafael | director | Sale | 323 @ $280.21 | $91K | −0.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 117,636 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-02 | Santana Rafael | director | Sale | 268 @ $281.10 | $75K | −0.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 117,368 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-02 | Santana Rafael | director | Sale | 126 @ $282.03 | $36K | −0.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 117,242 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-01 | Santana Rafael | director | Sale | 590 @ $279.87 | $165K | −0.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 118,641 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-01 | Santana Rafael | director | Sale | 194 @ $280.86 | $54K | −0.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 118,447 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-01 | Santana Rafael | director | Sale | 194 @ $278.93 | $54K | −0.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 119,231 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-01 | Santana Rafael | director | Sale | 118 @ $281.74 | $33K | −0.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 118,329 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-21 | Mendonca Rogerio | officer | Sale | 2,910 @ $297.05 | $864K | −26.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 7,977 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-21 | Mendonca Rogerio | officer | Sale | 9 @ $296.24 | $3K | −0.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 7,968 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-20 | Fetsko Michael | officer | Sale | 2,962 @ $293.16 | $868K | −7.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 37,668 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-20 | Fetsko Michael | officer | Sale | 288 @ $293.84 | $85K | −0.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 37,380 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-17 | Sbrocco Gregory | officer | Sale | 952 @ $300.00 | $286K | −4.3% of holding | −5.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 21,043 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-05 | Santana Rafael | director | Sale | 518 @ $297.05 | $154K | −0.4% of holding | −5.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 119,673 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-05 | Santana Rafael | director | Sale | 397 @ $296.14 | $118K | −0.3% of holding | −5.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 120,191 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-05 | Santana Rafael | director | Sale | 194 @ $298.26 | $58K | −0.2% of holding | −5.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 119,479 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-05 | Santana Rafael | director | Sale | 54 @ $298.85 | $16K | −0.0% of holding | −5.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 119,425 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-04 | Santana Rafael | director | Sale | 629 @ $299.70 | $189K | −0.5% of holding | −5.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 120,588 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-04 | Santana Rafael | director | Sale | 334 @ $298.90 | $100K | −0.3% of holding | −5.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 121,217 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-04 | Santana Rafael | director | Sale | 120 @ $297.68 | $36K | −0.1% of holding | −5.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 121,551 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-04 | Santana Rafael | director | Sale | 80 @ $296.46 | $24K | −0.1% of holding | −5.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 121,671 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-24 | DeNinno David L | officer | Sale | 3,000 @ $301.31 | $904K | −5.2% of holding | −4.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 55,128 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-24 | Gebhardt Eric | officer | Sale | 2,353 @ $299.69 | $705K | −10.2% of holding | −4.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 20,753 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-24 | Gebhardt Eric | officer | Sale | 2,040 @ $298.86 | $610K | −8.1% of holding | −4.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 23,106 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-24 | Gebhardt Eric | officer | Sale | 1,600 @ $300.49 | $481K | −7.7% of holding | −4.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 19,153 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-24 | Gebhardt Eric | officer | Sale | 1,107 @ $297.39 | $329K | −4.2% of holding | −4.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 25,146 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-24 | Gaur Sameer | officer | Sale | 1,000 @ $300.64 | $301K | −8.3% of holding | −4.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 10,985 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-07 | Santana Rafael | director | Sale | 283 @ $258.37 | $73K | −0.2% of holding | +11.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 122,008 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-07 | Santana Rafael | director | Sale | 287 @ $254.34 | $73K | −0.2% of holding | +11.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 122,627 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-07 | Santana Rafael | director | Sale | 257 @ $259.12 | $67K | −0.2% of holding | +11.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 121,751 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-07 | Santana Rafael | director | Sale | 189 @ $256.50 | $48K | −0.2% of holding | +11.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 122,291 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-07 | Santana Rafael | director | Sale | 147 @ $255.60 | $38K | −0.1% of holding | +11.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 122,480 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-06 | Santana Rafael | director | Sale | 815 @ $261.55 | $213K | −0.7% of holding | +11.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 123,262 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-06 | Santana Rafael | director | Sale | 184 @ $263.68 | $49K | −0.1% of holding | +11.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 122,914 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-06 | Santana Rafael | director | Sale | 164 @ $262.81 | $43K | −0.1% of holding | +11.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 123,098 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-12 | Gaur Sameer | officer | Sale | 1,082 @ $263.50 | $285K | −8.3% of holding | −4.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 11,985 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-08 | Santana Rafael | director | Sale | 400 @ $259.66 | $104K | −0.3% of holding | −1.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 124,840 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-08 | Santana Rafael | director | Sale | 299 @ $260.80 | $78K | −0.2% of holding | −1.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 124,541 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-08 | Santana Rafael | director | Sale | 251 @ $262.83 | $66K | −0.2% of holding | −1.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 124,097 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-08 | Santana Rafael | director | Sale | 193 @ $261.81 | $51K | −0.2% of holding | −1.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 124,348 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-08 | Santana Rafael | director | Sale | 20 @ $263.76 | $5K | −0.0% of holding | −1.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 124,077 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-05 | Santana Rafael | director | Sale | 546 @ $260.83 | $142K | −0.4% of holding | −1.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 125,857 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-05 | Santana Rafael | director | Sale | 378 @ $261.85 | $99K | −0.3% of holding | −1.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 125,479 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-05 | Santana Rafael | director | Sale | 160 @ $262.99 | $42K | −0.1% of holding | −1.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 125,319 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-05 | Santana Rafael | director | Sale | 79 @ $263.72 | $21K | −0.1% of holding | −1.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 125,240 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-05 | DeNinno David L | officer | Sale | 2,500 @ $265.48 | $664K | −4.1% of holding | −4.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 58,128 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-05 | Santana Rafael | director | Sale | 344 @ $266.12 | $92K | −0.3% of holding | −4.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 126,403 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-05 | Santana Rafael | director | Sale | 317 @ $264.21 | $84K | −0.2% of holding | −4.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 127,047 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-05 | Santana Rafael | director | Sale | 300 @ $265.27 | $80K | −0.2% of holding | −4.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 126,747 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-05 | Santana Rafael | director | Sale | 202 @ $263.34 | $53K | −0.2% of holding | −4.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 127,364 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-04 | Santana Rafael | director | Sale | 366 @ $262.30 | $96K | −0.3% of holding | −4.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 128,363 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-04 | Santana Rafael | director | Sale | 310 @ $263.47 | $82K | −0.2% of holding | −4.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 128,053 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-04 | Santana Rafael | director | Sale | 242 @ $264.29 | $64K | −0.2% of holding | −4.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 127,811 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-04 | Santana Rafael | director | Sale | 222 @ $265.78 | $59K | −0.2% of holding | −4.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 127,589 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-04 | Santana Rafael | director | Sale | 23 @ $266.51 | $6K | −0.0% of holding | −4.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 127,566 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-14 | Santana Rafael | director | Sale | 36,414 @ $269.13 | $9.8M | −21.7% of holding | −8.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 131,122 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-14 | Santana Rafael | director | Sale | 21,219 @ $268.43 | $5.7M | −11.2% of holding | −8.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 167,536 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-14 | Santana Rafael | director | Sale | 2,393 @ $269.96 | $646K | −1.8% of holding | −8.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 128,729 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-14 | Santana Rafael | director | Sale | 826 @ $267.09 | $221K | −0.4% of holding | −8.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 188,755 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-12 | Trombley Gina | officer | Sale | 4,013 @ $241.87 | $971K | −22.5% of holding | +8.6% | +2.6% | 13,841 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
104 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-01 | Theophilus Nicole B | director | Award / grant | 2,192 | 23,599 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-13 | BANKS LEE C | director | Award / grant | 765 | 13,598 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-13 | Klee Ann R. | director | Award / grant | 765 | 12,574 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-13 | Perez Juan R. | director | Award / grant | 765 | 2,011 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-13 | Hehir Brian | director | Award / grant | 765 | 21,406 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-13 | Harty Linda S | director | Award / grant | 765 | 12,482 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-13 | Babcock Beverley A | director | Award / grant | 765 | 4,740 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-13 | Foster Byron S. | director | Award / grant | 765 | 8,219 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-05 | Sbrocco Gregory | officer | Other acquisition | 3,727 | 21,995 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-05 | Sbrocco Gregory | officer | Exercise | 3,727 | 25,722 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-05 | Sbrocco Gregory | officer | Exercise | 3,727 | 4,555 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-05 | Sbrocco Gregory | officer | Exercise | 3,727 | 4,555 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-05 | Sbrocco Gregory | officer | Exercise | 3,727 | 25,722 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-05 | Gaur Sameer | officer | Award / grant | 1,447 | 13,067 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-05 | Trombley Gina | officer | Award / grant | 1,843 | 17,854 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-05 | Jain Nalin | director | Award / grant | 1,756 | 7,019 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-05 | Fetsko Michael | officer | Award / grant | 1,989 | 40,630 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-05 | Gebhardt Eric | officer | Award / grant | 2,685 | 26,253 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-05 | Olin John A | director | Award / grant | 5,917 | 61,893 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-05 | DeNinno David L | officer | Award / grant | 3,763 | 60,628 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-05 | Santana Rafael | director | Award / grant | 32,398 | 191,907 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-05 | Theophilus Nicole B | director | Award / grant | 2,605 | 21,407 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-05 | Sbrocco Gregory | officer | Award / grant | 2,063 | 21,995 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-05 | Mendonca Rogerio | officer | Award / grant | 1,902 | 10,878 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-05 | Schweitzer Pascal | officer | Award / grant | 3,515 | 3,515 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-05 | Yates Kyra | officer | Award / grant | 383 | 3,334 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-05 | Mastalerz John A Jr | officer | Award / grant | 519 | 7,593 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | Santana Rafael | director | Withheld for tax | 19,802 | 159,509 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | Schweitzer Pascal | officer | Disposition | 4,678 | 19,941 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | Olin John A | director | Withheld for tax | 4,511 | 55,976 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | DeNinno David L | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,243 | 56,865 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | Schweitzer Pascal | officer | Option exercise | 1,575 | 1,575 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | Schweitzer Pascal | officer | Option exercise | 1,566 | 3,130 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | Schweitzer Pascal | officer | Option exercise | 1,537 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | Gebhardt Eric | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,445 | 23,568 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | Trombley Gina | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,248 | 16,011 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | Sbrocco Gregory | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,227 | 19,932 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | Fetsko Michael | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,127 | 38,641 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | Mendonca Rogerio | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,125 | 8,976 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | Jain Nalin | director | Withheld for tax | 1,101 | 5,263 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.
As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date
A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).
| Member | Chamber | Type | Filed | Traded | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alan Armstrong | Senate | purchase | 2026-07-21 | 2026-03-27 | $1–15K |
| Tommy Tuberville | Senate | sale | 2026-07-16 | 2026-06-09 | $1–15K |
| April Mcclain Delaney | House | sale | 2026-07-07 | 2026-06-15 | $1–15K |
| April Mcclain Delaney | House | sale | 2026-07-07 | 2026-06-04 | $1–15K |
| April Mcclain Delaney | House | sale | 2026-07-07 | 2026-06-12 | $1–15K |
| April Mcclain Delaney | House | sale | 2026-07-07 | 2026-06-10 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-06-09 | 2026-05-01 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-05-11 | 2026-04-24 | $15–50K |
| Rick Larsen | House | purchase | 2026-04-15 | 2026-04-07 | $1–15K |
| April Mcclain Delaney | House | sale | 2026-02-02 | 2026-01-30 | $1–15K |
| April Mcclain Delaney | House | sale | 2026-02-02 | 2026-01-14 | $1–15K |
| April Mcclain Delaney | House | sale | 2026-02-02 | 2026-01-22 | $1–15K |
| Valerie Hoyle | House | sale | 2025-10-10 | 2025-09-23 | $1–15K |
| Markwayne Mullin | Senate | sale | 2025-10-01 | 2025-09-23 | $15–50K |
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.