Issued 2026-09-16 at $103.24 · now $103.24 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, W has typically landed between $72.50 and $142.24 — a range of −29.8% to +37.8% from the issuance price $103.24.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
2,985 overlapping 1 month windows · 2014-10-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($103.24) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where W has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $103.24 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $103.24 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $101.76 (-1.4%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $85.07–$118.44
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $72.5–$142.24
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 2,985 windows spanning 2014-10-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2020-02-19 | −70.8% | −70.8% | +2.1% |
| 2020-02-18 | −69.4% | −69.4% | +1.0% |
| 2020-02-20 | −66.9% | −71.4% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2020-03-19 | +329.1% | +0.0% | +329.1% |
| 2020-03-18 | +261.5% | −5.6% | +261.5% |
| 2020-03-20 | +251.8% | +0.0% | +270.5% |
2,985 overlapping windows · 2014-10-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~12 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
67%
+11.0%
n=12
Feb
33%
−5.2%
n=12
Mar
42%
−1.4%
n=12
Apr
33%
+4.3%
n=12
May
75%
+15.0%
n=12
Jun
75%
+13.8%
n=12
Jul
50%
+5.8%
n=12
Aug
42%
+1.2%
n=12
Sep
42%
−0.5%
n=12
Oct
36%
−7.4%
n=11
Nov
58%
+3.3%
n=12
Dec
33%
−3.2%
n=12
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-14 | Shah Niraj | director | Sale | 19,374 @ $104.41 | $2.0M | −5.9% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 311,514 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-14 | Conine Steven | director | Sale | 19,159 @ $104.42 | $2.0M | −5.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 311,419 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-14 | Shah Niraj | director | Sale | 12,943 @ $105.41 | $1.4M | −4.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 298,571 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-14 | Conine Steven | director | Sale | 12,808 @ $105.40 | $1.3M | −4.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 298,611 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-14 | Conine Steven | director | Sale | 7,538 @ $106.09 | $800K | −2.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 291,073 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-14 | Conine Steven | director | Sale | 7,654 @ $103.39 | $791K | −2.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 330,578 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-14 | Shah Niraj | director | Sale | 7,434 @ $106.09 | $789K | −2.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 291,137 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-14 | Shah Niraj | director | Sale | 7,258 @ $103.37 | $750K | −2.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 330,888 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-14 | Conine Steven | director | Sale | 4,896 @ $99.42 | $487K | −1.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 350,660 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-14 | Conine Steven | director | Sale | 4,801 @ $100.39 | $482K | −1.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 345,859 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-14 | Shah Niraj | director | Sale | 4,732 @ $100.31 | $475K | −1.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 346,362 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-14 | Shah Niraj | director | Sale | 4,437 @ $102.36 | $454K | −1.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 338,146 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-14 | Shah Niraj | director | Sale | 4,558 @ $99.34 | $453K | −1.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 351,094 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-14 | Conine Steven | director | Sale | 4,517 @ $98.32 | $444K | −1.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 355,556 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-14 | Shah Niraj | director | Sale | 4,485 @ $98.27 | $441K | −1.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 355,652 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-14 | Conine Steven | director | Sale | 4,102 @ $102.40 | $420K | −1.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 338,232 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-14 | Shah Niraj | director | Sale | 3,779 @ $101.33 | $383K | −1.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 342,583 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-14 | Conine Steven | director | Sale | 3,525 @ $101.43 | $358K | −1.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 342,334 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-08 | Blotner Jon | officer | Sale | 6,968 @ $100.22 | $698K | −5.9% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 110,376 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-12 | Shah Niraj | director | Sale | 25,137 @ $103.71 | $2.6M | −6.3% of holding | −3.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 371,716 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-12 | Conine Steven | director | Sale | 25,249 @ $102.89 | $2.6M | −6.0% of holding | −3.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 395,100 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-12 | Conine Steven | director | Sale | 23,604 @ $103.72 | $2.4M | −6.0% of holding | −3.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 371,496 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-12 | Shah Niraj | director | Sale | 23,259 @ $102.87 | $2.4M | −5.5% of holding | −3.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 396,853 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-12 | Shah Niraj | director | Sale | 11,524 @ $104.68 | $1.2M | −3.1% of holding | −3.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 360,192 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-12 | Conine Steven | director | Sale | 11,248 @ $104.69 | $1.2M | −3.0% of holding | −3.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 360,248 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-12 | Shah Niraj | director | Sale | 9,025 @ $101.98 | $920K | −2.1% of holding | −3.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 420,112 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-12 | Conine Steven | director | Sale | 8,724 @ $101.98 | $890K | −2.0% of holding | −3.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 420,349 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-12 | Conine Steven | director | Sale | 175 @ $105.42 | $18K | −0.0% of holding | −3.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 360,073 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-12 | Shah Niraj | director | Sale | 55 @ $105.43 | $6K | −0.0% of holding | −3.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 360,137 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-02 | Blotner Jon | officer | Sale | 5,925 @ $96.29 | $571K | −4.8% of holding | −7.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 117,344 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-24 | Conine Steven | director | Sale | 5,839 @ $78.57 | $459K | −1.3% of holding | −13.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 429,773 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-24 | Shah Niraj | director | Sale | 5,137 @ $78.66 | $404K | −1.2% of holding | −13.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 429,537 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-24 | Conine Steven | director | Sale | 700 @ $79.26 | $55K | −0.2% of holding | −13.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 429,073 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-24 | Shah Niraj | director | Sale | 600 @ $77.69 | $47K | −0.1% of holding | −13.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 434,674 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-24 | Conine Steven | director | Sale | 600 @ $77.54 | $47K | −0.1% of holding | −13.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 435,612 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-24 | Shah Niraj | director | Sale | 400 @ $79.47 | $32K | −0.1% of holding | −13.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 429,137 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-23 | Shah Niraj | director | Sale | 53,136 @ $77.24 | $4.1M | −10.0% of holding | −18.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 479,285 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-23 | Conine Steven | director | Sale | 52,639 @ $77.25 | $4.1M | −9.9% of holding | −18.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 479,713 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-23 | Shah Niraj | director | Sale | 39,477 @ $78.10 | $3.1M | −8.2% of holding | −18.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 439,808 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-23 | Conine Steven | director | Sale | 38,510 @ $78.11 | $3.0M | −8.0% of holding | −18.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 441,203 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-23 | Conine Steven | director | Sale | 16,721 @ $76.37 | $1.3M | −3.0% of holding | −18.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 532,352 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-23 | Shah Niraj | director | Sale | 16,716 @ $76.37 | $1.3M | −3.0% of holding | −18.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 532,421 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-23 | Conine Steven | director | Sale | 4,240 @ $79.06 | $335K | −1.0% of holding | −18.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 436,963 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-23 | Shah Niraj | director | Sale | 3,785 @ $79.08 | $299K | −0.9% of holding | −18.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 436,023 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-23 | Conine Steven | director | Sale | 751 @ $79.85 | $60K | −0.2% of holding | −18.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 436,212 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-23 | Shah Niraj | director | Sale | 749 @ $79.85 | $60K | −0.2% of holding | −18.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 435,274 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-02 | Blotner Jon | officer | Sale | 4,790 @ $72.19 | $346K | −4.1% of holding | −20.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 111,158 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-25 | Conine Steven | director | Sale | 5,078 @ $79.34 | $403K | −9.4% of holding | −9.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 49,073 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-25 | Shah Niraj | director | Sale | 5,068 @ $79.38 | $402K | −9.3% of holding | −9.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 49,137 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-25 | Shah Niraj | director | Sale | 3,012 @ $77.64 | $234K | −5.0% of holding | −9.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 56,736 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-25 | Conine Steven | director | Sale | 2,900 @ $77.62 | $225K | −4.9% of holding | −9.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 56,567 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-25 | Shah Niraj | director | Sale | 2,531 @ $78.54 | $199K | −4.5% of holding | −9.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 54,205 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-25 | Conine Steven | director | Sale | 2,416 @ $78.48 | $190K | −4.3% of holding | −9.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 54,151 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-24 | Conine Steven | director | Sale | 1,687 @ $77.14 | $130K | −2.8% of holding | −6.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 59,467 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-24 | Shah Niraj | director | Sale | 1,571 @ $77.18 | $121K | −2.6% of holding | −6.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 59,748 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-23 | Shah Niraj | director | Sale | 50,198 @ $76.53 | $3.8M | −30.0% of holding | −3.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 116,945 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-23 | Conine Steven | director | Sale | 49,748 @ $76.53 | $3.8M | −29.8% of holding | −3.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 117,163 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-23 | Shah Niraj | director | Sale | 32,087 @ $77.43 | $2.5M | −27.4% of holding | −3.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 84,858 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-23 | Conine Steven | director | Sale | 32,045 @ $77.42 | $2.5M | −27.4% of holding | −3.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 85,118 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-23 | Conine Steven | director | Sale | 23,964 @ $78.43 | $1.9M | −28.2% of holding | −3.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 61,154 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
132 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-12 | JUNG ANDREA | director | Award / grant | 2,422 | 7,154 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-12 | King Jeremy | director | Award / grant | 2,422 | 19,965 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Tan Fiona | director | Withheld for tax | 14,357 | 25,280 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Gulliver Kate | director | Withheld for tax | 11,347 | 171,190 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Blotner Jon | officer | Withheld for tax | 11,339 | 123,269 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Gulliver Kate | director | Option exercise | 428 | 1,284 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Gulliver Kate | director | Option exercise | 22,428 | 67,286 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Tan Fiona | director | Option exercise | 1,198 | 12,564 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Tan Fiona | director | Option exercise | 27,073 | 39,637 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Gulliver Kate | director | Option exercise | 392 | 159,463 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Blotner Jon | officer | Option exercise | 326 | 111,484 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Blotner Jon | officer | Option exercise | 182 | 111,666 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Blotner Jon | officer | Option exercise | 22,942 | 134,608 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Blotner Jon | officer | Option exercise | 326 | 327 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Blotner Jon | officer | Option exercise | 182 | 547 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Blotner Jon | officer | Option exercise | 22,942 | 68,826 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Gulliver Kate | director | Option exercise | 218 | 159,681 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Gulliver Kate | director | Option exercise | 428 | 160,109 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Gulliver Kate | director | Option exercise | 22,428 | 182,537 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Gulliver Kate | director | Option exercise | 392 | 392 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Gulliver Kate | director | Option exercise | 218 | 657 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Tan Fiona | director | Option exercise | 1,198 | 3,597 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Tan Fiona | director | Option exercise | 27,073 | 81,219 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | Blotner Jon | officer | Award / grant | 91,768 | 91,768 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | Tan Fiona | director | Award / grant | 108,292 | 108,292 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | Gulliver Kate | director | Award / grant | 89,714 | 89,714 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-20 | Shah Niraj | director | Conversion | 500,000 | 549,137 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-20 | Conine Steven | director | Conversion | 500,000 | 549,073 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-20 | Conine Steven | director | Conversion | 500,000 | 8,633,304 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-20 | Shah Niraj | director | Conversion | 500,000 | 8,634,496 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Tan Fiona | director | Withheld for tax | 11,727 | 11,366 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Blotner Jon | officer | Withheld for tax | 9,216 | 115,948 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Gulliver Kate | director | Withheld for tax | 9,208 | 159,071 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Blotner Jon | officer | Option exercise | 181 | 729 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Tan Fiona | director | Option exercise | 21,457 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Tan Fiona | director | Option exercise | 1,636 | 4,795 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Tan Fiona | director | Option exercise | 21,457 | 23,093 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Tan Fiona | director | Option exercise | 1,636 | 1,636 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Gulliver Kate | director | Option exercise | 17,848 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Gulliver Kate | director | Option exercise | 584 | 1,712 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.