VVV · TickerCove

VVVValvoline Inc.Energy · Oil & Gas Refining & Marketingas of 2026-09-16

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $27.13 · now $27.13 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, VVV has typically landed between $23.78 and $30.81 — a range of −12.4% to +13.6% from the issuance price $27.13.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

2,487 overlapping 1 month windows · 2016-09-23 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($27.13) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$27.13 · 0% of range

$27.13 low$40.67 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-16 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,408 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

53.9%

90% CI 51.7%–56.1%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

−0.6%

typical move · IQR 11.3%

−12.4%worst (p90)+13.6%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

0 buys · 0 sells · 0 members

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where VVV has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $27.13 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $27.13 (+0.0%)
typical $26.96 (-0.6%)
middle 50% $25.43–$28.49
90% range $23.78–$30.81

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 2,487 windows spanning 2016-09-23 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2020-02-21	−58.9%	−58.9%	+0.0%
2020-02-18	−53.1%	−53.1%	+1.7%
2020-02-20	−51.9%	−53.9%	+0.0%
3 best
2020-03-23	+51.1%	+0.0%	+56.0%
2020-04-01	+39.9%	+0.0%	+52.1%
2020-03-18	+38.6%	−11.1%	+38.6%

2,487 overlapping windows · 2016-09-23 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~10 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

60%

+3.4%

n=10

Feb

30%

+0.1%

n=10

Mar

30%

−3.9%

n=10

Apr

20%

+2.1%

n=10

May

80%

+3.0%

n=10

Jun

70%

+4.4%

n=10

Jul

60%

+1.5%

n=10

Aug

20%

−3.4%

n=10

Sep

20%

−3.8%

n=10

Oct

40%

−1.3%

n=10

Nov

80%

+5.7%

n=10

Dec

50%

−0.5%

n=10

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing
2026-08-21	O'Daniel Julie Marie	officer	Sale	3,700 @ $33.81	$125K	−20.6% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	14,279	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-08-12	Denny Jordan M.	officer	Purchase	1,506 @ $33.20	$50K	+57.6% of holding	−7.2%	not yet — horizon still open	4,121	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-06-25	Caldwell Jonathan L.	officer	Sale	2,851 @ $40.00	$114K	−12.0% of holding	−1.1%	not yet — horizon still open	20,918	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-15	Slater Jennifer Lynn	director	Purchase	1,000 @ $32.53	$33K	ownership Δ n/a	+15.0%	not yet — horizon still open	1,000	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-05-14	WILLIS J KEVIN	director	Purchase	10,000 @ $31.80	$318K	+44.0% of holding	+16.9%	not yet — horizon still open	32,725	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-14	Freeland Richard Joseph	director	Purchase	3,100 @ $32.37	$100K	+23.8% of holding	+16.9%	not yet — horizon still open	16,112	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-03	Caldwell Jonathan L.	officer	Sale	2,679 @ $37.54	$101K	−10.1% of holding	−5.7%	−27.7%	23,769	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-02	Caldwell Jonathan L.	officer	Sale	983 @ $38.00	$37K	−3.6% of holding	−7.1%	−28.6%	26,448	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-20	O'Daniel Julie Marie	officer	Sale	4,312 @ $38.55	$166K	−19.3% of holding	−8.3%	−24.0%	17,979	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-11-26	O'Daniel Julie Marie	officer	Sale	3,200 @ $31.88	$102K	−15.6% of holding	−7.2%	−5.6%	17,251	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-11-24	Flees Lori Ann	director	Purchase	4,500 @ $30.82	$139K	+6.9% of holding	−3.7%	−1.0%	69,267	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-11-21	WILLIS J KEVIN	director	Purchase	10,000 @ $31.41	$314K	+78.6% of holding	−9.0%	−3.7%	22,725	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-08-14	WILLIS J KEVIN	director	Purchase	9,716 @ $39.42	$383K	+322.9% of holding	−0.5%	−8.5%	12,725	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-08-14	WILLIS J KEVIN	director	Purchase	1,300 @ $39.40	$51K	+80.8% of holding	−0.5%	−8.5%	2,909	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-08-14	WILLIS J KEVIN	director	Purchase	899 @ $39.37	$35K	+126.6% of holding	−0.5%	−8.5%	1,609	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-08-14	WILLIS J KEVIN	director	Purchase	710 @ $39.36	$28K	ownership Δ n/a	−0.5%	−8.5%	710	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-08-14	WILLIS J KEVIN	director	Purchase	100 @ $39.42	$4K	+3.4% of holding	−0.5%	−8.5%	3,009	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-05-27	Flees Lori Ann	director	Purchase	3,000 @ $33.78	$101K	+6.9% of holding	+5.4%	−24.2%	46,614	Form 4 · filed same day
2025-02-25	O'Daniel Julie Marie	officer	Sale	6,000 @ $37.41	$224K	−28.2% of holding	−1.6%	−4.2%	15,305	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-02-24	Kruse Carol H.	director	Sale	3,740 @ $36.59	$137K	−100.0% of holding	−2.1%	−1.6%	0	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2024-12-11	Dobbins Robert Travis	officer	Sale	1,914 @ $40.00	$77K	−11.3% of holding	−5.9%	−8.1%	14,956	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

193 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-09-03	Flees Lori Ann	director	Award / grant	30	15,714	Form 4
2026-09-02	Worsham Adam C.	officer	Withheld for tax	788	8,550	Form 4
2026-09-02	Worsham Adam C.	officer	Option exercise	2,573	9,338	Form 4
2026-09-02	Worsham Adam C.	officer	Option exercise	2,573	5,147	Form 4
2026-08-20	Flees Lori Ann	director	Award / grant	28	15,683	Form 4
2026-08-06	Flees Lori Ann	director	Award / grant	27	15,655	Form 4
2026-07-23	Flees Lori Ann	director	Award / grant	25	15,628	Form 4
2026-07-22	Mezvinsky Scott	director	Award / grant	1,810	1,810	Form 4
2026-07-22	Fogertey Katherine Irene	director	Award / grant	1,810	1,810	Form 4
2026-07-09	Flees Lori Ann	director	Award / grant	25	15,602	Form 4
2026-06-25	Flees Lori Ann	director	Award / grant	24	15,577	Form 4
2026-06-11	Flees Lori Ann	director	Award / grant	25	15,553	Form 4
2026-06-02	WILLIS J KEVIN	director	Option exercise	3,876	36,601	Form 4
2026-06-02	WILLIS J KEVIN	director	Withheld for tax	1,768	34,833	Form 4
2026-06-02	WILLIS J KEVIN	director	Option exercise	3,876	7,754	Form 4
2026-05-28	Flees Lori Ann	director	Award / grant	28	15,528	Form 4
2026-05-14	Flees Lori Ann	director	Award / grant	30	15,500	Form 4
2026-04-30	Flees Lori Ann	director	Award / grant	58	15,470	Form 4
2026-04-02	Flees Lori Ann	director	Award / grant	29	15,412	Form 4
2026-04-01	Denny Jordan M.	officer	Withheld for tax	1,195	2,615	Form 4
2026-04-01	Denny Jordan M.	officer	Option exercise	3,543	7,087	Form 4
2026-04-01	Denny Jordan M.	officer	Option exercise	3,543	3,810	Form 4
2026-04-01	Denny Jordan M.	officer	Option exercise	3,543	3,810	Form 4
2026-03-19	Flees Lori Ann	director	Award / grant	29	15,383	Form 4
2026-03-05	Flees Lori Ann	director	Award / grant	27	15,354	Form 4
2026-03-02	Caldwell Jonathan L.	officer	Withheld for tax	6,198	27,431	Form 4
2026-03-02	Caldwell Jonathan L.	officer	Option exercise	8,877	33,629	Form 4
2026-03-02	Caldwell Jonathan L.	officer	Option exercise	8,877	0	Form 4
2026-02-27	Sturgeon Dione	officer	Option exercise	287	6,970	Form 4
2026-02-27	Sturgeon Dione	officer	Withheld for tax	104	6,866	Form 4
2026-02-27	Sturgeon Dione	officer	Option exercise	287	0	Form 4
2026-02-20	O'Daniel Julie Marie	officer	Withheld for tax	11,498	22,291	Form 4
2026-02-20	O'Daniel Julie Marie	officer	Option exercise	15,810	33,789	Form 4
2026-02-20	O'Daniel Julie Marie	officer	Option exercise	15,810	0	Form 4
2026-02-19	Flees Lori Ann	director	Award / grant	25	15,327	Form 4
2026-02-05	Flees Lori Ann	director	Award / grant	26	15,302	Form 4
2026-01-28	Pacious Patrick	director	Option exercise	3,750	9,490	Form 4
2026-01-28	Manager Vada O	director	Option exercise	3,750	8,870	Form 4
2026-01-28	Kruse Carol H.	director	Award / grant	4,300	4,300	Form 4
2026-01-28	Carr Chris	director	Award / grant	4,300	4,300	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Resolves in i

28d remaining

2026-09-173% elapsed2026-10-15

Logged immutably 2026-09-17; scored automatically on 2026-10-15 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Congressional disclosures

Seasonality · by month i