VTRS · TickerCove

VTRSViatris Inc.Healthcare · Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Genericas of 2026-09-25

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-25 at $17.83 · now $17.83 (2026-09-25, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-25 close, VTRS has typically landed between $15.55 and $20.82 — a range of −12.8% to +16.8% from the issuance price $17.83.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

4,692 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-26 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Base rate up 53.7% (90% CI 51.5–55.9%, ≈1,391 obs). Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-25 issuance close ($17.83) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-26, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$17.83 · 100% of range

$9.24 low$17.86 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-25 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,391 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

53.7%

90% CI 51.5%–55.9%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

+1.3%

typical move · IQR 13.6%

−12.8%worst (p90)+16.8%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

7 buys · 7 sells · 3 members

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where VTRS has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-25 close of $17.83 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $17.83 (+0.0%)
typical $18.06 (+1.3%)
middle 50% $16.85–$19.27
90% range $15.55–$20.82

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,692 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-25. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2008-09-26	−50.6%	−50.6%	+0.0%
2008-09-25	−47.8%	−47.8%	+0.0%
2008-09-24	−43.6%	−43.6%	+2.2%
3 best
2008-10-27	+55.8%	+0.0%	+71.7%
2008-10-28	+41.8%	+0.0%	+52.1%
2008-10-24	+39.6%	−7.7%	+58.4%

4,692 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-25 · not cherry-picked

Pending catalysts

2026-10-31 — Trial primary completion: Phase 3 primary completion: A Research Study to Evaluate the Effects of a New Oral Medicine Called Cenerimod in Adults With Systemic Lupus Erythematosus (source, as of 2026-08-14)
2026-10-31 — Trial primary completion: Phase 3 primary completion: A Research Study to Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of Cenerimod in Subjects Suffering From Systemic Lupus Erythematosus (source, as of 2026-08-14)
July 2027 — Trial primary completion: Phase 3 primary completion: Selatogrel Outcome Study in Suspected Acute Myocardial Infarction (source, as of 2026-08-14)
2027-10-08 — Trial primary completion: Phase 2 primary completion: A Study to Evaluate the Safety,Tolerability,Pharmacokinetics and Pharmacodynamics of Cenerimod in Adult Chinese Participants With Moderate-to-severe Systemic Lupus Erythematosus (SLE) (source, as of 2026-08-14)
May 2028 — Trial primary completion: Phase 3 primary completion: Long-term Safety and Tolerability of Cenerimod in Adults With Systemic Lupus Erythematosus (source, as of 2026-08-14)
August 2029 — Trial primary completion: Phase 3 primary completion: A Research Trial to Assess if Cenerimod is Efficacious and Safe to Treat Active Lupus Nephritis on Top of Regular Treatment (source, as of 2026-08-14)

Public, scheduled events — dated attention, not a prediction of the outcome. See the FDA catalysts page for the historical base rate.

Fundamentals iiAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.

$20.1B

market cap

$-0.26

EPS (TTM)

—

P/E (TTM)

2026-08-06

next earnings

Revenue$14.3B

'20'25

Net income−$3.5B

'20'25

Free cash flow$1.9B

'20'25

Net margin · by yr-24.6%

'20'25

ROE · by yr-23.9%

'20'25

Debt / equity · by yr1.00

'20'25

Fair value — three views i

iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.

DCF (intrinsic)$21.71
Analyst target · range $12.00–$22.00$19.00
Current price · last close 2026-09-25$17.83

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

61%

+2.8%

n=18

Feb

47%

−1.7%

n=19

Mar

37%

−2.4%

n=19

Apr

37%

+0.9%

n=19

May

53%

+0.1%

n=19

Jun

37%

−1.7%

n=19

Jul

68%

+2.0%

n=19

Aug

47%

−0.5%

n=19

Sep

32%

−4.1%

n=19

Oct

50%

+1.8%

n=18

Nov

78%

+6.4%

n=18

Dec

78%

+4.8%

n=18

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing
2026-06-25	Campbell Paul	officer	Sale	50,076 @ $16.17	$810K	−13.7% of holding	+9.1%	not yet — horizon still open	316,212	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-23	Campbell Paul	officer	Sale	21,350 @ $13.28	$284K	−5.5% of holding	+0.7%	+11.9%	366,288	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-11-03	SIMMONS DAVID S	director	Purchase	213 @ $10.43	$2K	+22.0% of holding	+4.0%	+46.4%	1,183	Form 4 · filed 127 days after the trade
2025-09-11	Le Goff Corinne	director	Sale	7,032 @ $10.25	$72K	−16.6% of holding	−3.8%	+34.2%	35,299	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-08-27	SIMMONS DAVID S	director	Purchase	286 @ $10.42	$3K	+41.8% of holding	−11.2%	+38.3%	970	Form 4 · filed 195 days after the trade
2025-08-12	Smith Scott Andrew	director	Purchase	22,000 @ $9.99	$220K	+7.5% of holding	−0.7%	+54.8%	314,807	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-05-12	Smith Scott Andrew	director	Purchase	60,000 @ $8.94	$536K	+25.8% of holding	−1.6%	−1.2%	292,807	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

293 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-08-15	Enrietti Andrew	officer	Withheld for tax	10,931	233,880	Form 4
2026-08-15	Enrietti Andrew	officer	Withheld for tax	435	234,444	Form 4
2026-08-15	Enrietti Andrew	officer	Option exercise	25,134	244,811	Form 4
2026-08-15	Enrietti Andrew	officer	Option exercise	998	1,997	Form 4
2026-08-15	Enrietti Andrew	officer	Option exercise	25,134	50,267	Form 4
2026-08-15	Enrietti Andrew	officer	Option exercise	999	234,879	Form 4
2026-06-30	Groothuis Leo Frans	director	Award / grant	2,756	2,756	Form 4
2026-06-30	SIMMONS DAVID S	director	Award / grant	2,362	2,362	Form 4
2026-04-15	Le Goff Corinne	director	Withheld for tax	17,450	105,108	Form 4
2026-04-15	Le Goff Corinne	director	Withheld for tax	1,617	107,135	Form 4
2026-04-15	Le Goff Corinne	director	Option exercise	3,644	108,752	Form 4
2026-04-15	Le Goff Corinne	director	Option exercise	39,344	122,558	Form 4
2026-04-15	Le Goff Corinne	director	Option exercise	3,644	0	Form 4
2026-04-15	Le Goff Corinne	director	Option exercise	39,344	0	Form 4
2026-03-06	Smith Scott Andrew	director	Withheld for tax	48,999	1,325,577	Form 4
2026-03-06	Mistras Theodora	officer	Withheld for tax	23,067	69,720	Form 4
2026-03-06	Le Goff Corinne	director	Withheld for tax	19,588	81,994	Form 4
2026-03-06	Campbell Paul	officer	Withheld for tax	12,088	386,868	Form 4
2026-03-06	Enrietti Andrew	officer	Withheld for tax	8,337	219,140	Form 4
2026-03-06	Smith Scott Andrew	director	Withheld for tax	2,433	1,329,326	Form 4
2026-03-06	Groothuis Leo Frans	director	Withheld for tax	1,243	62,324	Form 4
2026-03-06	Mistras Theodora	officer	Withheld for tax	1,146	70,645	Form 4
2026-03-06	Le Goff Corinne	director	Withheld for tax	973	83,214	Form 4
2026-03-06	Campbell Paul	officer	Withheld for tax	601	387,638	Form 4
2026-03-06	Enrietti Andrew	officer	Withheld for tax	415	219,677	Form 4
2026-03-06	Groothuis Leo Frans	director	Withheld for tax	62	63,437	Form 4
2026-03-06	SIMMONS DAVID S	director	Option exercise	22,820	0	Form 4
2026-03-06	PARRISH MARK W	director	Option exercise	23,660	164,055	Form 4
2026-03-06	PARRISH MARK W	director	Option exercise	1,175	165,230	Form 4
2026-03-06	PARRISH MARK W	director	Option exercise	23,660	0	Form 4
2026-03-06	PARRISH MARK W	director	Option exercise	1,174	0	Form 4
2026-03-06	PARRISH MARK W	director	Award / grant	15,890	15,890	Form 4
2026-03-06	Smith Scott Andrew	director	Option exercise	124,519	1,374,576	Form 4
2026-03-06	Smith Scott Andrew	director	Option exercise	6,182	1,331,759	Form 4
2026-03-06	Smith Scott Andrew	director	Option exercise	124,519	249,036	Form 4
2026-03-06	Smith Scott Andrew	director	Option exercise	6,181	12,362	Form 4
2026-03-06	Smith Scott Andrew	director	Award / grant	256,074	256,074	Form 4
2026-03-06	Vivaldi Coelho Rogerio	director	Award / grant	15,890	15,890	Form 4
2026-03-06	CORNWELL W DON	director	Option exercise	23,660	110,869	Form 4
2026-03-06	CORNWELL W DON	director	Option exercise	1,175	112,044	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iiDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-25 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks

Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

Member	Chamber	Type	Filed	Traded	Size
Ro Khanna	House	sale	2026-06-09	2026-05-27	$1–15K
Gilbert Cisneros	House	purchase	2025-12-15	2025-11-18	$1–15K
Ro Khanna	House	purchase	2025-05-12	2025-04-23	$1–15K
Rob Bresnahan	House	sale	2025-05-08	2025-04-08	$1–15K
Gilbert Cisneros	House	sale	2025-04-07	2025-03-31	$1–15K
Rob Bresnahan	House	purchase	2025-03-27	2025-02-25	$1–15K
Ro Khanna	House	sale	2025-03-06	2025-02-25	$1–15K
Ro Khanna	House	sale	2025-03-06	2025-02-19	$1–15K
Ro Khanna	House	purchase	2025-02-06	2025-01-17	$1–15K
Ro Khanna	House	purchase	2024-12-05	2024-11-15	$1–15K
Ro Khanna	House	sale	2024-11-08	2024-10-11	$1–15K
Ro Khanna	House	purchase	2024-09-06	2024-08-02	$1–15K
Ro Khanna	House	purchase	2024-09-06	2024-08-02	$1–15K
Ro Khanna	House	sale	2024-08-07	2024-07-02	$1–15K

Resolves in i

27d remaining

2026-09-2610% elapsed2026-10-26

Logged immutably 2026-09-26; scored automatically on 2026-10-26 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Pending catalysts

Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Fair value — three views i

Seasonality · by month i