Issued 2026-08-13 at $16.04 · now $16.04 (2026-08-13, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-08-13 close, VTRS has typically landed between $13.98 and $18.73 — a range of −12.8% to +16.8% from the issuance price $16.04.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
4,662 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-07-15 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.8% (90% CI 51.6–56.0%, ≈1,400 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-08-13 issuance close ($16.04) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-09-11, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where VTRS has typically landed a month from the 2026-08-13 close of $16.04 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $16.04 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $16.21 (+1.0%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $15.1–$17.31
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $13.98–$18.73
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2008-09-26 | −50.6% | −50.6% | +0.0% |
| 2008-09-25 | −47.8% | −47.8% | +0.0% |
| 2008-09-24 | −43.6% | −43.6% | +2.2% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2008-10-27 | +55.8% | +0.0% | +71.7% |
| 2008-10-28 | +41.8% | +0.0% | +52.1% |
| 2008-10-24 | +39.6% | −7.7% | +58.4% |
4,662 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-13 · not cherry-picked
Pending catalysts
- 2026-10-31 — Trial primary completion: Phase 3 primary completion: A Research Study to Evaluate the Effects of a New Oral Medicine Called Cenerimod in Adults With Systemic Lupus Erythematosus (source, as of 2026-08-14)
- 2026-10-31 — Trial primary completion: Phase 3 primary completion: A Research Study to Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of Cenerimod in Subjects Suffering From Systemic Lupus Erythematosus (source, as of 2026-08-14)
- July 2027 — Trial primary completion: Phase 3 primary completion: Selatogrel Outcome Study in Suspected Acute Myocardial Infarction (source, as of 2026-08-14)
- 2027-10-08 — Trial primary completion: Phase 2 primary completion: A Study to Evaluate the Safety,Tolerability,Pharmacokinetics and Pharmacodynamics of Cenerimod in Adult Chinese Participants With Moderate-to-severe Systemic Lupus Erythematosus (SLE) (source, as of 2026-08-14)
- May 2028 — Trial primary completion: Phase 3 primary completion: Long-term Safety and Tolerability of Cenerimod in Adults With Systemic Lupus Erythematosus (source, as of 2026-08-14)
- August 2029 — Trial primary completion: Phase 3 primary completion: A Research Trial to Assess if Cenerimod is Efficacious and Safe to Treat Active Lupus Nephritis on Top of Regular Treatment (source, as of 2026-08-14)
Public, scheduled events — dated attention, not a prediction of the outcome. See the FDA catalysts page for the historical base rate.
Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.
Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.
iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.- DCF (intrinsic)$21.71
- Analyst target · range $12.00–$22.00$19.00
- Current price · last close 2026-08-13$16.04
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Company insiders iOpen-market share purchases and sales by the company's own officers and directors, by filing date.
Last 90 days · as of 2026-08-13 · point-in-time by filing date
What was excluded from the conviction count, and why
2 award/RSU grants excluded — these carry no conviction information.
Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.
As of 2026-08-13 · point-in-time by filed date
A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +28 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27).
| Member | Chamber | Type | Filed | Traded | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-06-09 | 2026-05-27 | $1–15K |
| Gilbert Cisneros | House | purchase | 2025-12-15 | 2025-11-18 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2025-05-12 | 2025-04-23 | $1–15K |
| Rob Bresnahan | House | sale | 2025-05-08 | 2025-04-08 | $1–15K |
| Gilbert Cisneros | House | sale | 2025-04-07 | 2025-03-31 | $1–15K |
| Rob Bresnahan | House | purchase | 2025-03-27 | 2025-02-25 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2025-03-06 | 2025-02-25 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2025-03-06 | 2025-02-19 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2025-02-06 | 2025-01-17 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2024-12-05 | 2024-11-15 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2024-11-08 | 2024-10-11 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2024-09-06 | 2024-08-02 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2024-09-06 | 2024-08-02 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2024-08-07 | 2024-07-02 | $1–15K |
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. Full terms.