Issued 2026-09-16 at $88.21 · now $88.21 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, VTR has typically landed between $78.90 and $99.50 — a range of −10.6% to +12.8% from the issuance price $88.21.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
4,685 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($88.21) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where VTR has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $88.21 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $88.21 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $89.18 (+1.1%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $84.43–$93.93
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $78.9–$99.5
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2020-02-18 | −71.6% | −71.6% | +5.5% |
| 2020-02-19 | −66.2% | −71.3% | +6.6% |
| 2020-02-20 | −65.4% | −72.8% | +1.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2020-03-18 | +89.6% | +0.0% | +104.8% |
| 2008-12-01 | +86.9% | +0.0% | +86.9% |
| 2020-05-07 | +68.7% | −1.1% | +68.7% |
4,685 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.
Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.
iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 29 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.- DCF (intrinsic)$183.55
- Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 32.9× · n=29$18.08
- Analyst target · range $88.00–$110.00$96.50
- Current price · last close 2026-09-16$88.21
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-03 | EMBLER MICHAEL J | director | Purchase | 2,500 @ $78.81 | $197K | +15.0% of holding | +17.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 19,202 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-14 | RAKOWICH WALTER C | director | Sale | 1,152 @ $90.20 | $104K | −3.9% of holding | −8.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 28,349 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-11 | Roberts Carey S. | officer | Sale | 35,532 @ $85.00 | $3.0M | −32.8% of holding | +5.3% | −6.4% | 72,755 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-06 | CAFARO DEBRA A | director | Sale | 10,322 @ $82.23 | $849K | −0.9% of holding | +6.2% | +0.2% | 1,114,034 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-02 | CAFARO DEBRA A | director | Sale | 10,322 @ $77.66 | $802K | −0.9% of holding | +13.5% | +7.3% | 1,114,034 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-02 | Probst Robert F | officer | Sale | 29,930 @ $77.25 | $2.3M | −17.8% of holding | −0.5% | +13.1% | 138,434 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-02 | CAFARO DEBRA A | director | Sale | 10,322 @ $77.26 | $797K | −0.9% of holding | −0.5% | +13.1% | 1,145,695 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-01 | CAFARO DEBRA A | director | Sale | 10,322 @ $80.55 | $831K | −0.9% of holding | −3.7% | −11.9% | 1,145,695 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-19 | Bulgarelli Peter J. | director | Sale | 2,229 @ $80.08 | $179K | −2.1% of holding | −4.1% | −1.6% | 106,488 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-18 | Bulgarelli Peter J. | director | Sale | 2,771 @ $80.01 | $222K | −2.5% of holding | −2.4% | −1.6% | 108,717 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-17 | CAFARO DEBRA A | director | Sale | 41,294 @ $79.01 | $3.3M | −3.5% of holding | −1.0% | +1.6% | 1,145,695 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-12 | Probst Robert F | officer | Sale | 33,591 @ $76.77 | $2.6M | −16.6% of holding | +1.5% | +6.4% | 168,364 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-07 | Bulgarelli Peter J. | director | Sale | 40 @ $75.70 | $3K | −0.0% of holding | +3.4% | +7.2% | 111,488 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-06 | CAFARO DEBRA A | director | Sale | 264 @ $75.05 | $20K | −0.0% of holding | +6.1% | +7.5% | 1,145,695 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-11-06 | Bulgarelli Peter J. | director | Sale | 166 @ $75.15 | $12K | −0.1% of holding | +6.1% | +7.5% | 111,528 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-11-05 | CAFARO DEBRA A | director | Sale | 19,250 @ $75.29 | $1.4M | −1.7% of holding | +6.3% | +8.4% | 1,145,695 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-05 | Bulgarelli Peter J. | director | Sale | 870 @ $75.28 | $65K | −0.8% of holding | +6.3% | +8.4% | 111,694 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-04 | CAFARO DEBRA A | director | Sale | 11,452 @ $75.02 | $859K | −1.0% of holding | +6.0% | +8.0% | 1,145,695 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-04 | Bulgarelli Peter J. | director | Sale | 3,924 @ $75.00 | $294K | −3.4% of holding | +6.0% | +8.0% | 112,564 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-03 | CAFARO DEBRA A | director | Sale | 10,322 @ $73.98 | $764K | −0.9% of holding | +7.8% | +10.3% | 1,145,695 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-11-03 | CAFARO DEBRA A | director | Sale | 10,322 @ $73.74 | $761K | −0.9% of holding | +7.8% | +10.3% | 1,145,695 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-10-30 | CAFARO DEBRA A | director | Sale | 224,360 @ $74.34 | $16.7M | −16.4% of holding | +8.0% | +13.3% | 1,145,695 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-30 | CAFARO DEBRA A | director | Sale | 41,288 @ $73.64 | $3.0M | −3.5% of holding | +8.0% | +13.3% | 1,145,695 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-30 | CAFARO DEBRA A | director | Sale | 30,966 @ $74.32 | $2.3M | −2.6% of holding | +8.0% | +13.3% | 1,145,695 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-30 | CAFARO DEBRA A | director | Sale | 20,644 @ $74.34 | $1.5M | −1.8% of holding | +8.0% | +13.3% | 1,145,695 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-20 | CAFARO DEBRA A | director | Sale | 185,283 @ $71.32 | $13.2M | −13.9% of holding | +13.4% | +6.9% | 1,145,695 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-20 | CAFARO DEBRA A | director | Sale | 34,232 @ $71.32 | $2.4M | −2.9% of holding | +13.4% | +6.9% | 1,145,695 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-01 | CAFARO DEBRA A | director | Sale | 10,322 @ $70.24 | $725K | −0.9% of holding | +4.0% | +21.2% | 1,145,695 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-10-01 | Bulgarelli Peter J. | director | Sale | 2,554 @ $70.26 | $179K | −2.1% of holding | +4.0% | +21.2% | 116,488 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-30 | Bulgarelli Peter J. | director | Sale | 2,040 @ $69.99 | $143K | −1.7% of holding | −3.5% | +19.7% | 119,042 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-15 | Bulgarelli Peter J. | director | Sale | 406 @ $70.00 | $28K | −0.3% of holding | −2.5% | +25.6% | 121,082 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-02 | CAFARO DEBRA A | director | Sale | 10,322 @ $67.80 | $700K | −0.9% of holding | −0.4% | +21.8% | 1,145,695 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-04 | Probst Robert F | officer | Sale | 29,691 @ $68.49 | $2.0M | −15.0% of holding | −3.2% | +5.4% | 168,364 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-01 | CAFARO DEBRA A | director | Sale | 10,322 @ $67.40 | $696K | −0.9% of holding | −2.4% | +3.7% | 1,145,695 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-07-31 | Probst Robert F | officer | Sale | 3,900 @ $68.45 | $267K | −2.3% of holding | −0.7% | +7.0% | 168,364 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-07-21 | Probst Robert F | officer | Sale | 29,493 @ $66.29 | $2.0M | −14.9% of holding | +0.5% | +10.8% | 168,364 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-18 | CAFARO DEBRA A | director | Sale | 4,375 @ $65.82 | $288K | −0.4% of holding | −0.4% | +9.9% | 1,145,695 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-07-18 | Probst Robert F | officer | Sale | 4,098 @ $66.24 | $271K | −2.4% of holding | −0.4% | +9.9% | 168,364 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-07-16 | CAFARO DEBRA A | director | Sale | 1,224 @ $65.62 | $80K | −0.1% of holding | −0.2% | +7.8% | 1,145,695 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-07-15 | CAFARO DEBRA A | director | Sale | 292 @ $65.65 | $19K | −0.0% of holding | +0.7% | +7.4% | 1,145,695 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-07-14 | Probst Robert F | officer | Sale | 168,318 @ $65.36 | $11.0M | −50.0% of holding | +1.6% | +5.0% | 168,364 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-14 | CAFARO DEBRA A | director | Sale | 14,753 @ $65.60 | $968K | −1.3% of holding | +1.6% | +5.0% | 1,145,695 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-30 | Roberts Carey S. | officer | Sale | 23,500 @ $64.23 | $1.5M | −16.8% of holding | −6.5% | +10.7% | 116,650 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-05-27 | Probst Robert F | officer | Sale | 17,374 @ $65.22 | $1.1M | −9.4% of holding | −6.4% | +9.2% | 168,364 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-21 | Probst Robert F | officer | Sale | 36,000 @ $64.62 | $2.3M | −17.6% of holding | −3.4% | +13.3% | 168,364 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-21 | Probst Robert F | officer | Sale | 33,592 @ $64.57 | $2.2M | −16.6% of holding | −3.4% | +13.3% | 168,364 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-14 | RAKOWICH WALTER C | director | Sale | 1,459 @ $63.76 | $93K | −5.0% of holding | −1.4% | +5.5% | 27,454 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-02 | CAFARO DEBRA A | director | Sale | 1,212 @ $66.45 | $81K | −0.1% of holding | −10.1% | −8.5% | 1,145,695 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-01 | CAFARO DEBRA A | director | Sale | 9,110 @ $66.04 | $602K | −0.8% of holding | −8.3% | −7.3% | 1,145,695 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-04-03 | CAFARO DEBRA A | director | Sale | 37,489 @ $71.06 | $2.7M | −3.2% of holding | −9.3% | −23.7% | 1,145,695 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-04-03 | CAFARO DEBRA A | director | Sale | 7,062 @ $71.06 | $502K | −0.6% of holding | −9.3% | −23.7% | 1,145,695 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-04 | CAFARO DEBRA A | director | Sale | 1,200 @ $71.04 | $85K | −0.1% of holding | +1.9% | −14.2% | 1,128,143 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-03-03 | CAFARO DEBRA A | director | Sale | 388 @ $71.00 | $28K | −0.0% of holding | +2.8% | −12.4% | 1,128,143 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-02-28 | CAFARO DEBRA A | director | Sale | 41,294 @ $69.08 | $2.9M | −3.5% of holding | +5.7% | −9.3% | 1,138,143 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-25 | CAFARO DEBRA A | director | Sale | 214,679 @ $68.22 | $14.6M | −15.9% of holding | +4.1% | −8.5% | 1,138,143 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-02-24 | CAFARO DEBRA A | director | Sale | 9,680 @ $68.00 | $658K | −0.8% of holding | +3.2% | −6.8% | 1,138,143 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
244 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-01 | Wattula Andy | officer | Award / grant | 10,694 | 10,694 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | Wattula Andy | officer | Award / grant | 4,314 | 15,008 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-16 | LUSTIG MATTHEW J | director | Award / grant | 210 | 95,663 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-16 | Martino Roxanne M | director | Award / grant | 174 | 66,846 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-16 | NADER MARGUERITE M | director | Award / grant | 72 | 23,544 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-16 | Smith Maurice S | director | Award / grant | 72 | 31,311 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-16 | Barnes Melody C | director | Award / grant | 72 | 35,379 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-16 | EMBLER MICHAEL J | director | Award / grant | 72 | 19,274 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-16 | LUSTIG MATTHEW J | director | Award / grant | 72 | 95,735 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-16 | Roy Sumit | director | Award / grant | 72 | 24,872 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-16 | Smith Maurice S | director | Award / grant | 56 | 31,240 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-16 | Rodriguez Joe Vasquez Jr. | director | Award / grant | 49 | 9,943 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-16 | Roy Sumit | director | Award / grant | 47 | 24,800 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Martino Roxanne M | director | Award / grant | 544 | 66,672 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Smith Maurice S | director | Award / grant | 461 | 31,184 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | LUSTIG MATTHEW J | director | Award / grant | 448 | 95,453 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Roy Sumit | director | Award / grant | 349 | 24,753 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-13 | Martino Roxanne M | director | Award / grant | 2,047 | 66,128 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-13 | Rodriguez Joe Vasquez Jr. | director | Award / grant | 2,047 | 9,895 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-13 | LUSTIG MATTHEW J | director | Award / grant | 2,047 | 95,006 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-13 | Roy Sumit | director | Award / grant | 2,047 | 24,404 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-13 | EMBLER MICHAEL J | director | Award / grant | 2,047 | 16,702 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-13 | BIGMAN THEODORE | director | Award / grant | 2,047 | 10,640 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-13 | RAKOWICH WALTER C | director | Award / grant | 2,047 | 29,501 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-13 | Smith Maurice S | director | Award / grant | 2,047 | 30,723 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-13 | NADER MARGUERITE M | director | Award / grant | 2,047 | 23,472 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-13 | Nolan Sean P. | director | Award / grant | 2,047 | 26,181 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-13 | Barnes Melody C | director | Award / grant | 2,047 | 35,307 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | Bulgarelli Peter J. | director | Withheld for tax | 2,372 | 122,050 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | Bulgarelli Peter J. | director | Withheld for tax | 2,346 | 124,422 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | Bulgarelli Peter J. | director | Withheld for tax | 1,496 | 120,554 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-16 | LUSTIG MATTHEW J | director | Award / grant | 229 | 92,892 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-16 | Martino Roxanne M | director | Award / grant | 188 | 64,081 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-16 | Barnes Melody C | director | Award / grant | 67 | 33,260 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-16 | NADER MARGUERITE M | director | Award / grant | 67 | 21,425 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-16 | Smith Maurice S | director | Award / grant | 67 | 28,676 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-16 | LUSTIG MATTHEW J | director | Award / grant | 67 | 92,959 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-16 | EMBLER MICHAEL J | director | Award / grant | 67 | 14,655 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-16 | Roy Sumit | director | Award / grant | 67 | 22,357 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-16 | Smith Maurice S | director | Award / grant | 59 | 28,609 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.
As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date
A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).
| Member | Chamber | Type | Filed | Traded | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alan Armstrong | Senate | purchase | 2026-07-21 | 2026-03-27 | $1–15K |
| Gilbert Cisneros | House | sale | 2026-02-13 | 2026-01-09 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-02-06 | 2026-01-29 | $1–15K |
| Gilbert Cisneros | House | purchase | 2025-12-15 | 2025-11-12 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2025-12-08 | 2025-11-03 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2025-10-03 | 2025-09-05 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2025-09-09 | 2025-08-04 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2025-09-09 | 2025-08-04 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2025-08-07 | 2025-07-01 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2025-08-07 | 2025-07-01 | $1–15K |
| Earl Blumenauer | House | sale | 2024-10-08 | 2024-09-19 | $15–50K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2024-06-05 | 2024-05-28 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2024-02-05 | 2024-01-10 | $1–15K |
| Daniel Goldman | House | sale | 2023-08-13 | 2023-07-14 | $1–15K |
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.