VTRVentas, Inc.Real Estate · REIT - Healthcare Facilitiesas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $88.21 · now $88.21 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, VTR has typically landed between $78.90 and $99.50 — a range of −10.6% to +12.8% from the issuance price $88.21.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

4,685 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-022026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.756.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($88.21) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where VTR has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $88.21 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$78.9worst · -10.6%$99.5best · +12.8%
  • now $88.21 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $89.18 (+1.1%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $84.43$93.93
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $78.9$99.5
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,685 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2020-02-18−71.6%−71.6%+5.5%
2020-02-19−66.2%−71.3%+6.6%
2020-02-20−65.4%−72.8%+1.0%
3 best
2020-03-18+89.6%+0.0%+104.8%
2008-12-01+86.9%+0.0%+86.9%
2020-05-07+68.7%−1.1%+68.7%

4,685 overlapping windows · 2008-01-022026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.

$48.9B
market cap
$0.55
EPS (TTM)
182.8
P/E (TTM)
2026-07-29
next earnings
Revenue$5.8B
'20'25
Net income$251M
'20'25
Free cash flow$1.3B
'20'25
Net margin · by yr4.3%
'20'25
ROE · by yr2.0%
'20'25
Debt / equity · by yr1.06
'20'25

Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.

iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 29 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.
now $88.21$4.84$196.79
  • DCF (intrinsic)$183.55
  • Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 32.9× · n=29$18.08
  • Analyst target · range $88.00$110.00$96.50
  • Current price · last close 2026-09-16$88.21

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
61%
+1.3%
n=18
Feb
47%
−0.9%
n=19
Mar
68%
+0.6%
n=19
Apr
68%
+4.5%
n=19
May
58%
+0.8%
n=19
Jun
63%
+1.9%
n=19
Jul
74%
+4.1%
n=19
Aug
47%
+0.3%
n=19
Sep
42%
−1.2%
n=19
Oct
56%
−0.4%
n=18
Nov
50%
−0.8%
n=18
Dec
72%
+4.5%
n=18

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$101$652026-06-03: 1 insider purchase, $197K — EMBLER MICHAEL J2026-05-14: 1 insider sale, $104K — RAKOWICH WALTER C2026-02-11: 1 insider sale, $3.0M — Roberts Carey S.2026-02-06: 1 insider sale, $849K — CAFARO DEBRA A2026-02-02: 1 insider sale, $802K — CAFARO DEBRA A2026-01-02: 2 insider sales, $3.1M — Probst Robert F, CAFARO DEBRA A2025-12-01: 1 insider sale, $831K — CAFARO DEBRA A2025-11-19: 1 insider sale, $179K — Bulgarelli Peter J.2025-11-18: 1 insider sale, $222K — Bulgarelli Peter J.2025-11-17: 1 insider sale, $3.3M — CAFARO DEBRA A2025-11-12: 1 insider sale, $2.6M — Probst Robert F2025-11-07: 1 insider sale, $3K — Bulgarelli Peter J.2025-11-06: 2 insider sales, $32K — CAFARO DEBRA A, Bulgarelli Peter J.2025-11-05: 2 insider sales, $1.5M — CAFARO DEBRA A, Bulgarelli Peter J.2025-11-04: 2 insider sales, $1.2M — CAFARO DEBRA A, Bulgarelli Peter J.2025-11-03: 2 insider sales, $1.5M — CAFARO DEBRA A …2025-10-30: 4 insider sales, $23.6M — CAFARO DEBRA A …2025-10-20: 2 insider sales, $15.7M — CAFARO DEBRA A …2025-10-01: 2 insider sales, $904K — CAFARO DEBRA A, Bulgarelli Peter J.2025-09-30: 1 insider sale, $143K — Bulgarelli Peter J.2025-09-15: 1 insider sale, $28K — Bulgarelli Peter J.2025-09-02: 1 insider sale, $700K — CAFARO DEBRA A2025-08: 2 open-market sales, $2.7M2025-09: 3 open-market sales, $871K2025-10: 8 open-market sales, $40.1M2025-11: 13 open-market sales, $10.5M2025-12: 1 open-market sale, $831K2026-01: 2 open-market sales, $3.1M2026-02: 3 open-market sales, $4.7M2026-05: 1 open-market sale, $104K2026-06: 1 open-market purchase, $197K↑ buys↓ salesdirector EMBLER MICHAEL J — Purchase on 2026-06-03, filed 2 days after the tradedirector RAKOWICH WALTER C — Sale on 2026-05-14, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Roberts Carey S. — Sale on 2026-02-11, filed 2 days after the tradedirector CAFARO DEBRA A — Sale on 2026-02-06, filed 4 days after the tradedirector CAFARO DEBRA A — Sale on 2026-02-02, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Probst Robert F — Sale on 2026-01-02, filed 4 days after the tradedirector CAFARO DEBRA A — Sale on 2026-01-02, filed 4 days after the tradedirector CAFARO DEBRA A — Sale on 2025-12-01, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Bulgarelli Peter J. — Sale on 2025-11-19, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Bulgarelli Peter J. — Sale on 2025-11-18, filed 2 days after the tradedirector CAFARO DEBRA A — Sale on 2025-11-17, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Probst Robert F — Sale on 2025-11-12, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Bulgarelli Peter J. — Sale on 2025-11-07, filed 5 days after the tradedirector CAFARO DEBRA A — Sale on 2025-11-06, filed same daydirector Bulgarelli Peter J. — Sale on 2025-11-06, filed same daydirector CAFARO DEBRA A — Sale on 2025-11-05, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Bulgarelli Peter J. — Sale on 2025-11-05, filed 1 day after the tradedirector CAFARO DEBRA A — Sale on 2025-11-04, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Bulgarelli Peter J. — Sale on 2025-11-04, filed 2 days after the tradedirector CAFARO DEBRA A — Sale on 2025-11-03, filed same daydirector CAFARO DEBRA A — Sale on 2025-11-03, filed same daydirector CAFARO DEBRA A — Sale on 2025-10-30, filed 4 days after the tradedirector CAFARO DEBRA A — Sale on 2025-10-30, filed 4 days after the tradedirector CAFARO DEBRA A — Sale on 2025-10-30, filed 4 days after the tradedirector CAFARO DEBRA A — Sale on 2025-10-30, filed 4 days after the tradedirector CAFARO DEBRA A — Sale on 2025-10-20, filed 2 days after the tradedirector CAFARO DEBRA A — Sale on 2025-10-20, filed 2 days after the tradedirector CAFARO DEBRA A — Sale on 2025-10-01, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Bulgarelli Peter J. — Sale on 2025-10-01, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Bulgarelli Peter J. — Sale on 2025-09-30, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Bulgarelli Peter J. — Sale on 2025-09-15, filed 2 days after the tradedirector CAFARO DEBRA A — Sale on 2025-09-02, filed 2 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-06-03EMBLER MICHAEL JdirectorPurchase2,500 @ $78.81$197K+15.0% of holding+17.5%not yet — horizon still open19,202Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-05-14RAKOWICH WALTER CdirectorSale1,152 @ $90.20$104K−3.9% of holding−8.1%not yet — horizon still open28,349Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-11Roberts Carey S.officerSale35,532 @ $85.00$3.0M−32.8% of holding+5.3%−6.4%72,755Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-06CAFARO DEBRA AdirectorSale10,322 @ $82.23$849K−0.9% of holding+6.2%+0.2%1,114,034Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-02-02CAFARO DEBRA AdirectorSale10,322 @ $77.66$802K−0.9% of holding+13.5%+7.3%1,114,034Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-01-02Probst Robert FofficerSale29,930 @ $77.25$2.3M−17.8% of holding−0.5%+13.1%138,434Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-01-02CAFARO DEBRA AdirectorSale10,322 @ $77.26$797K−0.9% of holding−0.5%+13.1%1,145,695Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-12-01CAFARO DEBRA AdirectorSale10,322 @ $80.55$831K−0.9% of holding−3.7%−11.9%1,145,695Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-11-19Bulgarelli Peter J.directorSale2,229 @ $80.08$179K−2.1% of holding−4.1%−1.6%106,488Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-11-18Bulgarelli Peter J.directorSale2,771 @ $80.01$222K−2.5% of holding−2.4%−1.6%108,717Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-11-17CAFARO DEBRA AdirectorSale41,294 @ $79.01$3.3M−3.5% of holding−1.0%+1.6%1,145,695Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-11-12Probst Robert FofficerSale33,591 @ $76.77$2.6M−16.6% of holding+1.5%+6.4%168,364Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-11-07Bulgarelli Peter J.directorSale40 @ $75.70$3K−0.0% of holding+3.4%+7.2%111,488Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2025-11-06CAFARO DEBRA AdirectorSale264 @ $75.05$20K−0.0% of holding+6.1%+7.5%1,145,695Form 4 · filed same day
2025-11-06Bulgarelli Peter J.directorSale166 @ $75.15$12K−0.1% of holding+6.1%+7.5%111,528Form 4 · filed same day
2025-11-05CAFARO DEBRA AdirectorSale19,250 @ $75.29$1.4M−1.7% of holding+6.3%+8.4%1,145,695Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-11-05Bulgarelli Peter J.directorSale870 @ $75.28$65K−0.8% of holding+6.3%+8.4%111,694Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-11-04CAFARO DEBRA AdirectorSale11,452 @ $75.02$859K−1.0% of holding+6.0%+8.0%1,145,695Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-11-04Bulgarelli Peter J.directorSale3,924 @ $75.00$294K−3.4% of holding+6.0%+8.0%112,564Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-11-03CAFARO DEBRA AdirectorSale10,322 @ $73.98$764K−0.9% of holding+7.8%+10.3%1,145,695Form 4 · filed same day
2025-11-03CAFARO DEBRA AdirectorSale10,322 @ $73.74$761K−0.9% of holding+7.8%+10.3%1,145,695Form 4 · filed same day
2025-10-30CAFARO DEBRA AdirectorSale224,360 @ $74.34$16.7M−16.4% of holding+8.0%+13.3%1,145,695Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-10-30CAFARO DEBRA AdirectorSale41,288 @ $73.64$3.0M−3.5% of holding+8.0%+13.3%1,145,695Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-10-30CAFARO DEBRA AdirectorSale30,966 @ $74.32$2.3M−2.6% of holding+8.0%+13.3%1,145,695Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-10-30CAFARO DEBRA AdirectorSale20,644 @ $74.34$1.5M−1.8% of holding+8.0%+13.3%1,145,695Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-10-20CAFARO DEBRA AdirectorSale185,283 @ $71.32$13.2M−13.9% of holding+13.4%+6.9%1,145,695Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-10-20CAFARO DEBRA AdirectorSale34,232 @ $71.32$2.4M−2.9% of holding+13.4%+6.9%1,145,695Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-10-01CAFARO DEBRA AdirectorSale10,322 @ $70.24$725K−0.9% of holding+4.0%+21.2%1,145,695Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-10-01Bulgarelli Peter J.directorSale2,554 @ $70.26$179K−2.1% of holding+4.0%+21.2%116,488Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-09-30Bulgarelli Peter J.directorSale2,040 @ $69.99$143K−1.7% of holding−3.5%+19.7%119,042Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-09-15Bulgarelli Peter J.directorSale406 @ $70.00$28K−0.3% of holding−2.5%+25.6%121,082Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-09-02CAFARO DEBRA AdirectorSale10,322 @ $67.80$700K−0.9% of holding−0.4%+21.8%1,145,695Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-08-04Probst Robert FofficerSale29,691 @ $68.49$2.0M−15.0% of holding−3.2%+5.4%168,364Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-08-01CAFARO DEBRA AdirectorSale10,322 @ $67.40$696K−0.9% of holding−2.4%+3.7%1,145,695Form 4 · filed same day
2025-07-31Probst Robert FofficerSale3,900 @ $68.45$267K−2.3% of holding−0.7%+7.0%168,364Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-07-21Probst Robert FofficerSale29,493 @ $66.29$2.0M−14.9% of holding+0.5%+10.8%168,364Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-07-18CAFARO DEBRA AdirectorSale4,375 @ $65.82$288K−0.4% of holding−0.4%+9.9%1,145,695Form 4 · filed same day
2025-07-18Probst Robert FofficerSale4,098 @ $66.24$271K−2.4% of holding−0.4%+9.9%168,364Form 4 · filed same day
2025-07-16CAFARO DEBRA AdirectorSale1,224 @ $65.62$80K−0.1% of holding−0.2%+7.8%1,145,695Form 4 · filed same day
2025-07-15CAFARO DEBRA AdirectorSale292 @ $65.65$19K−0.0% of holding+0.7%+7.4%1,145,695Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-07-14Probst Robert FofficerSale168,318 @ $65.36$11.0M−50.0% of holding+1.6%+5.0%168,364Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-07-14CAFARO DEBRA AdirectorSale14,753 @ $65.60$968K−1.3% of holding+1.6%+5.0%1,145,695Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-05-30Roberts Carey S.officerSale23,500 @ $64.23$1.5M−16.8% of holding−6.5%+10.7%116,650Form 4 · filed same day
2025-05-27Probst Robert FofficerSale17,374 @ $65.22$1.1M−9.4% of holding−6.4%+9.2%168,364Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-05-21Probst Robert FofficerSale36,000 @ $64.62$2.3M−17.6% of holding−3.4%+13.3%168,364Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-05-21Probst Robert FofficerSale33,592 @ $64.57$2.2M−16.6% of holding−3.4%+13.3%168,364Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-05-14RAKOWICH WALTER CdirectorSale1,459 @ $63.76$93K−5.0% of holding−1.4%+5.5%27,454Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-05-02CAFARO DEBRA AdirectorSale1,212 @ $66.45$81K−0.1% of holding−10.1%−8.5%1,145,695Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-05-01CAFARO DEBRA AdirectorSale9,110 @ $66.04$602K−0.8% of holding−8.3%−7.3%1,145,695Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-04-03CAFARO DEBRA AdirectorSale37,489 @ $71.06$2.7M−3.2% of holding−9.3%−23.7%1,145,695Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-04-03CAFARO DEBRA AdirectorSale7,062 @ $71.06$502K−0.6% of holding−9.3%−23.7%1,145,695Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-03-04CAFARO DEBRA AdirectorSale1,200 @ $71.04$85K−0.1% of holding+1.9%−14.2%1,128,143Form 4 · filed same day
2025-03-03CAFARO DEBRA AdirectorSale388 @ $71.00$28K−0.0% of holding+2.8%−12.4%1,128,143Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-28CAFARO DEBRA AdirectorSale41,294 @ $69.08$2.9M−3.5% of holding+5.7%−9.3%1,138,143Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-02-25CAFARO DEBRA AdirectorSale214,679 @ $68.22$14.6M−15.9% of holding+4.1%−8.5%1,138,143Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-24CAFARO DEBRA AdirectorSale9,680 @ $68.00$658K−0.8% of holding+3.2%−6.8%1,138,143Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

244 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-08-01Wattula AndyofficerAward / grant10,69410,694Form 4
2026-08-01Wattula AndyofficerAward / grant4,31415,008Form 4
2026-07-16LUSTIG MATTHEW JdirectorAward / grant21095,663Form 4
2026-07-16Martino Roxanne MdirectorAward / grant17466,846Form 4
2026-07-16NADER MARGUERITE MdirectorAward / grant7223,544Form 4
2026-07-16Smith Maurice SdirectorAward / grant7231,311Form 4
2026-07-16Barnes Melody CdirectorAward / grant7235,379Form 4
2026-07-16EMBLER MICHAEL JdirectorAward / grant7219,274Form 4
2026-07-16LUSTIG MATTHEW JdirectorAward / grant7295,735Form 4
2026-07-16Roy SumitdirectorAward / grant7224,872Form 4
2026-07-16Smith Maurice SdirectorAward / grant5631,240Form 4
2026-07-16Rodriguez Joe Vasquez Jr.directorAward / grant499,943Form 4
2026-07-16Roy SumitdirectorAward / grant4724,800Form 4
2026-07-01Martino Roxanne MdirectorAward / grant54466,672Form 4
2026-07-01Smith Maurice SdirectorAward / grant46131,184Form 4
2026-07-01LUSTIG MATTHEW JdirectorAward / grant44895,453Form 4
2026-07-01Roy SumitdirectorAward / grant34924,753Form 4
2026-05-13Martino Roxanne MdirectorAward / grant2,04766,128Form 4
2026-05-13Rodriguez Joe Vasquez Jr.directorAward / grant2,0479,895Form 4
2026-05-13LUSTIG MATTHEW JdirectorAward / grant2,04795,006Form 4
2026-05-13Roy SumitdirectorAward / grant2,04724,404Form 4
2026-05-13EMBLER MICHAEL JdirectorAward / grant2,04716,702Form 4
2026-05-13BIGMAN THEODOREdirectorAward / grant2,04710,640Form 4
2026-05-13RAKOWICH WALTER CdirectorAward / grant2,04729,501Form 4
2026-05-13Smith Maurice SdirectorAward / grant2,04730,723Form 4
2026-05-13NADER MARGUERITE MdirectorAward / grant2,04723,472Form 4
2026-05-13Nolan Sean P.directorAward / grant2,04726,181Form 4
2026-05-13Barnes Melody CdirectorAward / grant2,04735,307Form 4
2026-05-01Bulgarelli Peter J.directorWithheld for tax2,372122,050Form 4
2026-05-01Bulgarelli Peter J.directorWithheld for tax2,346124,422Form 4
2026-05-01Bulgarelli Peter J.directorWithheld for tax1,496120,554Form 4
2026-04-16LUSTIG MATTHEW JdirectorAward / grant22992,892Form 4
2026-04-16Martino Roxanne MdirectorAward / grant18864,081Form 4
2026-04-16Barnes Melody CdirectorAward / grant6733,260Form 4
2026-04-16NADER MARGUERITE MdirectorAward / grant6721,425Form 4
2026-04-16Smith Maurice SdirectorAward / grant6728,676Form 4
2026-04-16LUSTIG MATTHEW JdirectorAward / grant6792,959Form 4
2026-04-16EMBLER MICHAEL JdirectorAward / grant6714,655Form 4
2026-04-16Roy SumitdirectorAward / grant6722,357Form 4
2026-04-16Smith Maurice SdirectorAward / grant5928,609Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

'24 Q'24 Q'24 Q'25 Q'25 Q'26 Q'26 Qpurchases ▲ / sales ▼ ($ vol)
MemberChamberTypeFiledTradedSize
Alan ArmstrongSenatepurchase2026-07-212026-03-27$1–15K
Gilbert CisnerosHousesale2026-02-132026-01-09$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-02-062026-01-29$1–15K
Gilbert CisnerosHousepurchase2025-12-152025-11-12$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2025-12-082025-11-03$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2025-10-032025-09-05$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2025-09-092025-08-04$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2025-09-092025-08-04$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2025-08-072025-07-01$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2025-08-072025-07-01$1–15K
Earl BlumenauerHousesale2024-10-082024-09-19$15–50K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2024-06-052024-05-28$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2024-02-052024-01-10$1–15K
Daniel GoldmanHousesale2023-08-132023-07-14$1–15K

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.