Issued 2026-09-16 at $41.33 · now $41.33 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, VTOL has typically landed between $35.11 and $48.55 — a range of −15.0% to +17.5% from the issuance price $41.33.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
3,413 overlapping 1 month windows · 2013-01-22 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($41.33) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where VTOL has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $41.33 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $41.33 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $41.52 (+0.4%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $38.64–$44.39
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $35.11–$48.55
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 3,413 windows spanning 2013-01-22 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2020-02-18 | −63.6% | −63.6% | +0.0% |
| 2020-02-21 | −59.2% | −62.2% | +0.0% |
| 2020-02-13 | −56.1% | −56.1% | +3.9% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2016-11-29 | +62.1% | +0.0% | +62.5% |
| 2016-11-01 | +59.6% | +0.0% | +68.1% |
| 2016-11-02 | +58.2% | +0.0% | +67.1% |
3,413 overlapping windows · 2013-01-22 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~14 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
38%
−0.4%
n=13
Feb
50%
+1.3%
n=14
Mar
43%
−5.0%
n=14
Apr
43%
−1.5%
n=14
May
64%
+1.0%
n=14
Jun
43%
+0.3%
n=14
Jul
64%
+3.6%
n=14
Aug
57%
+1.1%
n=14
Sep
57%
+0.2%
n=14
Oct
38%
+1.9%
n=13
Nov
38%
+0.7%
n=13
Dec
54%
+4.0%
n=13
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-14 | Solus Alternative Asset Management LP | other | Sale | 3,000 @ $43.03 | $129K | −0.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 2,841,710 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-11 | Solus Alternative Asset Management LP | other | Sale | 5,000 @ $43.00 | $215K | −0.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 2,844,710 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-03 | Solus Alternative Asset Management LP | other | Sale | 41 @ $45.75 | $2K | −0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 2,849,710 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-09-02 | Solus Alternative Asset Management LP | other | Sale | 12,045 @ $45.68 | $550K | −0.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 2,849,751 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-01 | Solus Alternative Asset Management LP | other | Sale | 15,000 @ $45.85 | $688K | −0.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 2,861,796 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-01 | Truelove Brian D. | director | Sale | 3,500 @ $45.87 | $161K | −8.9% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 35,728 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-01 | Brass Lorin L. | director | Sale | 350 @ $46.03 | $16K | −1.9% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 18,223 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-25 | Brass Lorin L. | director | Sale | 200 @ $46.55 | $9K | −1.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 18,573 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-20 | Stavley Stuart | officer | Sale | 10,218 @ $46.20 | $472K | −13.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 64,740 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-20 | Brass Lorin L. | director | Sale | 100 @ $47.05 | $5K | −0.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 18,773 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-19 | Brass Lorin L. | director | Sale | 1,890 @ $46.56 | $88K | −9.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 18,873 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-19 | Miller Maryanne | director | Sale | 430 @ $46.05 | $20K | −1.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 23,440 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-18 | Brass Lorin L. | director | Sale | 100 @ $46.55 | $5K | −0.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 20,763 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-17 | Brass Lorin L. | director | Sale | 210 @ $46.78 | $10K | −1.0% of holding | −8.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 20,863 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-24 | Bradshaw Christopher Scott | director | Sale | 29,625 @ $45.47 | $1.3M | −8.9% of holding | −2.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 302,938 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-23 | Brass Lorin L. | director | Sale | 1,000 @ $45.00 | $45K | −5.4% of holding | −6.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 17,455 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-04 | Miller Maryanne | director | Sale | 2,200 @ $44.90 | $99K | −9.8% of holding | +9.6% | −11.0% | 20,252 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | Whalen Jennifer Dawn | officer | Sale | 14,500 @ $46.90 | $680K | −11.8% of holding | +5.1% | −15.1% | 108,741 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | Whalen Jennifer Dawn | officer | Sale | 11,367 @ $46.83 | $532K | −8.4% of holding | +5.1% | −15.1% | 123,541 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | Whalen Jennifer Dawn | officer | Sale | 500 @ $47.83 | $24K | −0.5% of holding | +5.1% | −15.1% | 108,241 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | Whalen Jennifer Dawn | officer | Sale | 300 @ $47.98 | $14K | −0.2% of holding | +5.1% | −15.1% | 123,241 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-27 | Bradshaw Christopher Scott | director | Sale | 68,340 @ $47.51 | $3.2M | −15.5% of holding | +2.5% | −20.5% | 371,948 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-27 | Stavley Stuart | officer | Sale | 7,132 @ $47.22 | $337K | −7.5% of holding | +2.5% | −20.5% | 87,990 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-27 | Stavley Stuart | officer | Sale | 5,576 @ $46.52 | $259K | −5.5% of holding | +2.5% | −20.5% | 95,122 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-27 | Stavley Stuart | officer | Sale | 4,800 @ $46.46 | $223K | −4.3% of holding | +2.5% | −20.5% | 105,898 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-27 | Stavley Stuart | officer | Sale | 4,700 @ $47.20 | $222K | −4.4% of holding | +2.5% | −20.5% | 101,198 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-27 | Brass Lorin L. | director | Sale | 3,250 @ $49.04 | $159K | −15.0% of holding | +2.5% | −20.5% | 18,455 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-27 | Kern Wesley E. | director | Sale | 3,079 @ $46.83 | $144K | −8.8% of holding | +2.5% | −20.5% | 32,000 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-27 | Stavley Stuart | officer | Sale | 2,200 @ $48.14 | $106K | −2.5% of holding | +2.5% | −20.5% | 85,790 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-27 | Stavley Stuart | officer | Sale | 500 @ $48.32 | $24K | −0.5% of holding | +2.5% | −20.5% | 100,698 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-11-26 | Brass Lorin L. | director | Sale | 2,500 @ $38.00 | $95K | −10.3% of holding | −4.0% | +0.3% | 21,705 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-11-17 | Mickelson George Mark | director | Sale | 6,000 @ $38.37 | $230K | −8.5% of holding | −2.6% | +5.1% | 64,265 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-17 | Mickelson George Mark | director | Sale | 4,000 @ $38.45 | $154K | −6.2% of holding | −2.6% | +5.1% | 60,265 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-14 | Solus Alternative Asset Management LP | other | Sale | 200,000 @ $38.05 | $7.6M | −6.5% of holding | −7.6% | −1.0% | 2,876,796 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-14 | Brass Lorin L. | director | Sale | 1,250 @ $38.76 | $48K | −4.9% of holding | −7.6% | −1.0% | 24,205 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-14 | Brass Lorin L. | director | Sale | 1,250 @ $38.25 | $48K | −4.7% of holding | −7.6% | −1.0% | 25,455 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-11 | MANZO ROBERT | director | Sale | 6,000 @ $38.75 | $233K | −15.6% of holding | −3.8% | +0.9% | 32,583 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-13 | Miller Maryanne | director | Sale | 1,800 @ $38.37 | $69K | −7.4% of holding | −3.5% | +9.3% | 22,452 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-11 | Brass Lorin L. | director | Sale | 5,250 @ $37.47 | $197K | −16.4% of holding | −2.9% | +9.5% | 26,705 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-08-08 | Kern Wesley E. | director | Sale | 2,531 @ $37.72 | $95K | −6.7% of holding | −2.8% | +8.9% | 35,079 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-07 | Bradshaw Christopher Scott | director | Sale | 74,758 @ $37.06 | $2.8M | −15.4% of holding | −3.7% | +7.2% | 411,527 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-07 | Bradshaw Christopher Scott | director | Sale | 57,500 @ $37.10 | $2.1M | −14.3% of holding | −3.7% | +7.2% | 345,452 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-07 | Bradshaw Christopher Scott | director | Sale | 10,054 @ $38.38 | $386K | −2.9% of holding | −3.7% | +7.2% | 335,398 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-07 | Stavley Stuart | officer | Sale | 10,000 @ $37.10 | $371K | −11.2% of holding | −3.7% | +7.2% | 78,947 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-07 | MANZO ROBERT | director | Sale | 9,700 @ $37.07 | $360K | −20.0% of holding | −3.7% | +7.2% | 38,883 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-07 | Bradshaw Christopher Scott | director | Sale | 8,575 @ $38.17 | $327K | −2.1% of holding | −3.7% | +7.2% | 402,952 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-07 | Whalen Jennifer Dawn | officer | Sale | 5,000 @ $37.55 | $188K | −5.0% of holding | −3.7% | +7.2% | 94,203 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-07 | MANZO ROBERT | director | Sale | 300 @ $38.35 | $12K | −0.8% of holding | −3.7% | +7.2% | 38,583 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-06-12 | Solus Alternative Asset Management LP | other | Sale | 25,857 @ $33.54 | $867K | −0.8% of holding | −0.4% | −3.9% | 3,076,796 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-12 | Solus Alternative Asset Management LP | other | Sale | 20,000 @ $33.42 | $669K | −0.6% of holding | −0.4% | −3.9% | 3,102,653 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-24 | Solus Alternative Asset Management LP | other | Sale | 40,000 @ $32.29 | $1.3M | −1.3% of holding | −4.3% | −0.3% | 3,122,653 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-20 | Solus Alternative Asset Management LP | other | Sale | 4,168 @ $32.15 | $134K | −0.1% of holding | −2.8% | −2.9% | 3,162,653 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-19 | Solus Alternative Asset Management LP | other | Sale | 9,875 @ $32.08 | $317K | −0.3% of holding | −2.3% | +2.6% | 3,166,821 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-19 | Miller Maryanne | director | Sale | 2,200 @ $32.15 | $71K | −10.3% of holding | −2.3% | +2.6% | 19,173 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-12 | Solus Alternative Asset Management LP | other | Sale | 100 @ $32.00 | $3K | −0.0% of holding | −10.8% | +2.9% | 3,176,696 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-07 | Solus Alternative Asset Management LP | other | Sale | 11,829 @ $32.71 | $387K | −0.4% of holding | −5.7% | +3.4% | 3,176,796 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-03-05 | Solus Alternative Asset Management LP | other | Sale | 8,323 @ $32.71 | $272K | −0.3% of holding | −1.0% | +2.2% | 3,188,625 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-28 | Brass Lorin L. | director | Sale | 2,700 @ $37.00 | $100K | −8.8% of holding | −9.1% | −5.2% | 28,104 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2024-12-10 | Truelove Brian D. | director | Sale | 2,973 @ $35.49 | $106K | −8.9% of holding | −0.8% | −5.0% | 30,531 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
102 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-03 | Miller Maryanne | director | Award / grant | 3,618 | 23,870 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-03 | Truelove Brian D. | director | Award / grant | 3,618 | 39,228 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-03 | Brass Lorin L. | director | Award / grant | 3,618 | 21,073 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-03 | MANZO ROBERT | director | Award / grant | 3,618 | 36,201 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-03 | Mickelson George Mark | director | Award / grant | 3,618 | 53,883 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-03 | Shah Shefali A | director | Award / grant | 3,618 | 13,113 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-03 | Kern Wesley E. | director | Award / grant | 3,618 | 35,618 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-10 | Bradshaw Christopher Scott | director | Withheld for tax | 24,227 | 344,676 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-10 | Bradshaw Christopher Scott | director | Withheld for tax | 17,564 | 368,903 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-10 | Bradshaw Christopher Scott | director | Withheld for tax | 12,113 | 332,563 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-10 | Whalen Jennifer Dawn | officer | Withheld for tax | 6,625 | 103,347 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-10 | Stavley Stuart | officer | Withheld for tax | 6,421 | 78,168 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-10 | CORBETT ALAN | officer | Withheld for tax | 6,306 | 86,893 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-10 | Whalen Jennifer Dawn | officer | Withheld for tax | 4,803 | 109,972 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-10 | Stavley Stuart | officer | Withheld for tax | 4,654 | 84,589 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-10 | CORBETT ALAN | officer | Withheld for tax | 4,571 | 93,199 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-10 | Whalen Jennifer Dawn | officer | Withheld for tax | 3,313 | 100,034 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-10 | Stavley Stuart | officer | Withheld for tax | 3,210 | 74,958 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-10 | CORBETT ALAN | officer | Withheld for tax | 3,153 | 83,740 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-08 | Bradshaw Christopher Scott | director | Withheld for tax | 6,550 | 386,467 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-08 | CORBETT ALAN | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,633 | 97,770 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-08 | Stavley Stuart | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,562 | 89,243 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-08 | Whalen Jennifer Dawn | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,330 | 114,775 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-08 | Anderson Donna L | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,018 | 26,919 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-03 | Bradshaw Christopher Scott | director | Withheld for tax | 4,909 | 393,017 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-03 | CORBETT ALAN | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,207 | 99,403 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-03 | Stavley Stuart | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,171 | 90,805 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-03 | Whalen Jennifer Dawn | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,068 | 116,105 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-03 | Anderson Donna L | officer | Withheld for tax | 960 | 27,937 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-03 | Bradshaw Christopher Scott | director | Gift | 2,130 | 369,818 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | Whalen Jennifer Dawn | officer | Option exercise | 11,667 | 134,908 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | Whalen Jennifer Dawn | officer | Option exercise | 11,667 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | Bradshaw Christopher Scott | director | Award / grant | 28,108 | 397,926 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | CORBETT ALAN | officer | Award / grant | 5,552 | 100,610 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | Stavley Stuart | officer | Award / grant | 6,186 | 91,976 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | Anderson Donna L | officer | Award / grant | 7,528 | 28,897 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | Whalen Jennifer Dawn | officer | Award / grant | 9,582 | 117,173 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | Whalen Jennifer Dawn | officer | Gift | 650 | 107,591 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-27 | Stavley Stuart | officer | Option exercise | 10,000 | 110,698 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-27 | Stavley Stuart | officer | Option exercise | 10,000 | 0 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.