Issued 2026-09-16 at $73.96 · now $73.96 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, VSXY has typically landed between $53.91 and $98.91 — a range of −27.1% to +33.7% from the issuance price $73.96.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
1,274 overlapping 1 month windows · 2021-07-21 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($73.96) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where VSXY has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $73.96 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $73.96 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $75.57 (+2.2%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $65.11–$86.02
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $53.91–$98.91
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2025-02-06 | −50.1% | −50.1% | +0.0% |
| 2025-02-07 | −49.4% | −49.4% | +2.1% |
| 2025-02-10 | −47.6% | −50.5% | +0.1% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2026-05-19 | +81.4% | +0.0% | +81.4% |
| 2026-05-18 | +75.2% | +0.0% | +78.6% |
| 2026-05-13 | +74.6% | −0.8% | +77.2% |
1,274 overlapping windows · 2021-07-21 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~6 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-28 | BBRC INTERNATIONAL PTE LTD | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 718,007 @ $89.08 | $64.0M | −8.3% of holding | −1.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 7,891,544 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-28 | BBRC INTERNATIONAL PTE LTD | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 79,122 @ $89.76 | $7.1M | −1.0% of holding | −1.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 7,812,422 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-28 | BBRC INTERNATIONAL PTE LTD | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 1,791 @ $90.60 | $162K | −0.0% of holding | −1.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 7,810,631 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-22 | BBRC INTERNATIONAL PTE LTD | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 289,479 @ $88.89 | $25.7M | −3.3% of holding | −2.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 8,609,551 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
10 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-02 | Sekella Scott | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,519 | 59,830 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-11 | Davis Sarah R. | director | Award / grant | 1,706 | 28,322 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-11 | Hernandez Jacqueline | director | Award / grant | 1,706 | 28,322 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-11 | JAMES DONNA | director | Award / grant | 2,690 | 65,787 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-11 | LITTLE ROD R | director | Award / grant | 1,579 | 23,151 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-11 | Britt Irene Chang | director | Award / grant | 1,738 | 28,849 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-11 | PETERS LAUREN B | director | Award / grant | 1,706 | 28,817 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-11 | Sheehan Anne | director | Award / grant | 1,706 | 31,758 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-11 | McCreight David W. | director | Award / grant | 1,706 | 12,256 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-02 | Preis Elizabeth | officer | Withheld for tax | 5,614 | 54,011 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.