Issued 2026-09-25 at $7.74 · now $7.74 (2026-09-25, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-25 close, VSTM has typically landed between $5.19 and $11.19 — a range of −32.9% to +44.6% from the issuance price $7.74.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
3,663 overlapping 1 month windows · 2012-01-27 – 2026-08-26 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Base rate up 53.7% (90% CI 51.5–55.9%, ≈1,391 obs). Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-25 issuance close ($7.74) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-26, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where VSTM has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-25 close of $7.74 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $7.74 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $7.65 (-1.2%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $6.33–$8.96
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $5.19–$11.19
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 3,663 windows spanning 2012-01-27 to 2026-09-25. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2024-05-22 | −75.3% | −75.3% | +2.5% |
| 2024-05-23 | −74.8% | −75.9% | +0.0% |
| 2024-05-21 | −74.3% | −74.3% | +1.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2023-04-27 | +166.7% | +0.0% | +166.7% |
| 2023-04-28 | +161.5% | +0.0% | +166.7% |
| 2023-05-01 | +128.4% | −9.1% | +136.4% |
3,663 overlapping windows · 2012-01-27 – 2026-09-25 · not cherry-picked
Pending catalysts
- June 2027 — Trial primary completion: Phase 2 primary completion: A Phase 2 Study of VS-7375 in Patients With KRAS G12D-Mutated Pancreatic Cancer (source, as of 2026-08-14)
- June 2027 — Trial primary completion: Phase 2 primary completion: A Phase 2 Study of VS-7375 in Patients With KRAS G12D-Mutated Colorectal Cancer (source, as of 2026-08-14)
- June 2027 — Trial primary completion: Phase 2 primary completion: A Phase 2 Study of VS-7375 in Patients With KRAS G12D-Mutated Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer (source, as of 2026-08-14)
- 2028-10-15 — Trial primary completion: Phase 3 primary completion: A Study of Avutometinib (VS-6766) + Defactinib (VS-6063) in Recurrent Low-Grade Serous Ovarian Cancer (source, as of 2026-08-14)
- December 2028 — Trial primary completion: Phase 1/Phase PHASE2 primary completion: A Phase 1/2 Study of VS-7375 in Patients With KRAS G12D-Mutated Solid Tumors (source, as of 2026-08-14)
Public, scheduled events — dated attention, not a prediction of the outcome. See the FDA catalysts page for the historical base rate.
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~15 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
57%
+7.5%
n=14
Feb
40%
−0.7%
n=15
Mar
47%
+8.3%
n=15
Apr
47%
−2.2%
n=15
May
47%
+6.5%
n=15
Jun
33%
−5.0%
n=15
Jul
47%
+10.4%
n=15
Aug
40%
+3.0%
n=15
Sep
33%
−6.3%
n=15
Oct
29%
−10.2%
n=14
Nov
79%
+13.2%
n=14
Dec
29%
−6.5%
n=14
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-21 | Calkins Daniel | officer | Sale | 55 @ $7.70 | $424 | −0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 118,014 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | Paterson Dan | director | Sale | 1,302 @ $5.81 | $8K | −0.2% of holding | +33.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 589,940 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-22 | Paterson Dan | director | Sale | 20,871 @ $4.18 | $87K | −3.4% of holding | +38.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 591,242 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-22 | Calkins Daniel | officer | Sale | 4,032 @ $4.18 | $17K | −3.3% of holding | +38.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 117,295 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-22 | Calkins Daniel | officer | Sale | 57 @ $4.13 | $235 | −0.0% of holding | +38.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 117,238 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-04 | Paterson Dan | director | Sale | 806 @ $5.82 | $5K | −0.1% of holding | −44.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 612,113 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-04 | Paterson Dan | director | Sale | 970 @ $6.69 | $6K | −0.2% of holding | −4.0% | −25.6% | 612,919 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-12 | Paterson Dan | director | Sale | 10,321 @ $7.16 | $74K | −2.5% of holding | −10.4% | −28.6% | 400,104 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-12 | Calkins Daniel | officer | Sale | 5,039 @ $7.16 | $36K | −4.6% of holding | −10.4% | −28.6% | 104,719 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-24 | Calkins Daniel | officer | Sale | 80 @ $7.86 | $629 | −0.1% of holding | −18.1% | −59.4% | 109,758 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-16 | Stuglik Brian M | director | Sale | 592 @ $9.14 | $5K | −0.6% of holding | −24.9% | −63.2% | 101,147 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-16 | Paterson Dan | director | Sale | 393 @ $9.14 | $4K | −0.1% of holding | −24.9% | −63.2% | 410,425 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-16 | Gagnon Robert E. | director | Sale | 283 @ $9.14 | $3K | −0.7% of holding | −24.9% | −63.2% | 41,678 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-11 | Paterson Dan | director | Sale | 2,000 @ $10.00 | $20K | −0.5% of holding | −24.6% | −67.7% | 410,818 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-10 | Paterson Dan | director | Sale | 2,000 @ $10.07 | $20K | −0.5% of holding | −30.4% | −67.5% | 412,818 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-09 | Paterson Dan | director | Sale | 2,000 @ $10.25 | $21K | −0.5% of holding | −24.9% | −69.7% | 414,818 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-12-08 | Paterson Dan | director | Sale | 2,000 @ $10.50 | $21K | −0.5% of holding | −24.4% | −70.0% | 416,818 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-05 | Paterson Dan | director | Sale | 2,000 @ $10.61 | $21K | −0.5% of holding | −27.1% | −71.2% | 418,818 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-04 | Paterson Dan | director | Sale | 2,000 @ $10.00 | $20K | −0.5% of holding | −36.5% | −74.0% | 420,818 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-12-03 | Paterson Dan | director | Sale | 2,000 @ $10.00 | $20K | −0.5% of holding | −32.6% | −71.6% | 422,818 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-02 | Paterson Dan | director | Sale | 2,000 @ $10.32 | $21K | −0.5% of holding | −26.6% | −72.3% | 424,818 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-01 | Paterson Dan | director | Sale | 2,000 @ $10.39 | $21K | −0.5% of holding | −25.9% | −76.5% | 426,818 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-11-28 | Paterson Dan | director | Sale | 2,000 @ $10.79 | $22K | −0.5% of holding | −30.0% | −76.0% | 428,818 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-26 | Paterson Dan | director | Sale | 2,000 @ $10.32 | $21K | −0.5% of holding | −28.5% | −72.8% | 430,818 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-25 | Paterson Dan | director | Sale | 2,000 @ $10.00 | $20K | −0.5% of holding | −23.9% | −70.5% | 432,818 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-11-24 | Paterson Dan | director | Sale | 2,000 @ $10.00 | $20K | −0.5% of holding | −23.6% | −69.9% | 434,818 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-21 | Kauffman Michael | director | Sale | 8,550 @ $10.00 | $86K | −49.7% of holding | −25.4% | −72.0% | 8,666 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-21 | Bunn Paul A. | director | Sale | 6,250 @ $10.00 | $63K | −75.0% of holding | −25.4% | −72.0% | 2,083 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-21 | Paterson Dan | director | Sale | 2,000 @ $10.00 | $20K | −0.5% of holding | −25.4% | −72.0% | 436,818 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-03 | Paterson Dan | director | Sale | 2,000 @ $10.00 | $20K | −0.5% of holding | +1.5% | −47.3% | 438,818 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-03 | Paterson Dan | director | Sale | 1,299 @ $9.35 | $12K | −0.3% of holding | +1.5% | −47.3% | 440,818 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-09 | Bunn Paul A. | director | Sale | 8,333 @ $9.06 | $75K | −50.0% of holding | −12.6% | −41.6% | 8,333 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-24 | Calkins Daniel | officer | Sale | 25 @ $9.23 | $231 | −0.0% of holding | −10.9% | −36.7% | 109,838 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-09-22 | Calkins Daniel | officer | Sale | 57 @ $9.08 | $518 | −0.1% of holding | −13.2% | −44.5% | 109,863 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-16 | Stuglik Brian M | director | Sale | 587 @ $9.99 | $6K | −0.6% of holding | +1.9% | −39.9% | 101,739 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-16 | Paterson Dan | director | Sale | 390 @ $9.99 | $4K | −0.1% of holding | +1.9% | −39.9% | 442,117 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-16 | Gagnon Robert E. | director | Sale | 281 @ $9.99 | $3K | −0.7% of holding | +1.9% | −39.9% | 41,961 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-06 | Paterson Dan | director | Sale | 1,332 @ $5.81 | $8K | −0.3% of holding | +86.0% | +2.1% | 442,507 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-06-23 | Calkins Daniel | officer | Sale | 25 @ $4.71 | $118 | −0.0% of holding | +10.1% | +53.9% | 109,920 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-06-20 | Paterson Dan | director | Sale | 17,808 @ $5.13 | $91K | −3.9% of holding | +1.1% | +43.1% | 443,839 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-20 | Calkins Daniel | officer | Sale | 4,110 @ $5.13 | $21K | −3.6% of holding | +1.1% | +43.1% | 109,945 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-16 | Stuglik Brian M | director | Sale | 594 @ $5.65 | $3K | −0.6% of holding | −13.9% | +50.8% | 102,326 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-16 | Paterson Dan | director | Sale | 335 @ $5.65 | $2K | −0.1% of holding | −13.9% | +50.8% | 461,647 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-16 | Gagnon Robert E. | director | Sale | 284 @ $5.65 | $2K | −0.7% of holding | −13.9% | +50.8% | 42,242 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-20 | Paterson Dan | director | Sale | 58,677 @ $8.13 | $477K | −11.3% of holding | −39.1% | +3.5% | 461,982 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-05-20 | Calkins Daniel | officer | Sale | 11,143 @ $8.13 | $91K | −8.9% of holding | −39.1% | +3.5% | 114,055 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-05-05 | Paterson Dan | director | Sale | 820 @ $7.30 | $6K | −0.2% of holding | −17.7% | +19.3% | 345,659 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-24 | Calkins Daniel | officer | Sale | 26 @ $7.04 | $183 | −0.0% of holding | +10.2% | +17.4% | 86,348 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-03-20 | Calkins Daniel | officer | Sale | 65 @ $6.89 | $448 | −0.1% of holding | −0.1% | +14.3% | 86,374 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-17 | Stuglik Brian M | director | Sale | 593 @ $6.95 | $4K | −0.6% of holding | −28.5% | +9.2% | 94,587 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-17 | Gagnon Robert E. | director | Sale | 284 @ $6.95 | $2K | −0.8% of holding | −28.5% | +9.2% | 34,193 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-17 | Paterson Dan | director | Sale | 244 @ $6.95 | $2K | −0.1% of holding | −28.5% | +9.2% | 346,479 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-04 | Paterson Dan | director | Sale | 858 @ $5.70 | $5K | −0.2% of holding | +23.4% | −8.3% | 346,723 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-01-13 | Paterson Dan | director | Sale | 8,568 @ $5.24 | $45K | −2.4% of holding | +10.1% | −9.7% | 347,581 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-01-06 | Calkins Daniel | officer | Sale | 6 @ $6.94 | $42 | −0.0% of holding | −11.2% | −35.2% | 47,639 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-12-24 | Calkins Daniel | officer | Sale | 28 @ $3.91 | $109 | −0.1% of holding | +48.7% | +3.0% | 47,368 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-12-20 | Calkins Daniel | officer | Sale | 65 @ $4.34 | $282 | −0.1% of holding | +38.4% | −4.8% | 47,396 | Form 4 · filed 6 days after the trade |
| 2024-12-19 | Stuglik Brian M | director | Sale | 334 @ $4.37 | $1K | −0.3% of holding | +21.5% | −7.7% | 95,180 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-12-19 | Paterson Dan | director | Sale | 183 @ $4.37 | $800 | −0.1% of holding | +21.5% | −7.7% | 231,149 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-12-19 | Gagnon Robert E. | director | Sale | 130 @ $4.37 | $568 | −0.4% of holding | +21.5% | −7.7% | 34,477 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
97 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-21 | ROBERTSON MICHELLE | director | Award / grant | 36,000 | 52,666 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-21 | Rowinsky Eric K | director | Award / grant | 36,000 | 52,666 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-21 | Stuglik Brian M | director | Award / grant | 36,000 | 137,147 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-21 | Tollefson Karin Anna | director | Award / grant | 36,000 | 52,666 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-21 | BAILEY MICHAEL P | director | Award / grant | 108,000 | 108,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-21 | Bunn Paul A. | director | Award / grant | 36,000 | 44,333 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-21 | JOHNSON JOHN | director | Award / grant | 36,000 | 52,666 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-21 | Kapur Anil | director | Award / grant | 36,000 | 52,666 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-20 | Calkins Daniel | officer | Award / grant | 57 | 121,327 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-21 | Calkins Daniel | officer | Award / grant | 16,665 | 121,384 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-21 | Paterson Dan | director | Award / grant | 213,785 | 613,889 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-06 | Kauffman Michael | director | Award / grant | 200,000 | 200,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-21 | Bunn Paul A. | director | Option exercise | 6,250 | 8,333 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-21 | Bunn Paul A. | director | Option exercise | 6,250 | 6,250 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-22 | Stuglik Brian M | director | Award / grant | 8,333 | 102,920 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-22 | Bunn Paul A. | director | Award / grant | 8,333 | 16,666 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-22 | Bunn Paul A. | director | Award / grant | 12,500 | 12,500 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-22 | Gagnon Robert E. | director | Award / grant | 8,333 | 42,526 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-22 | Gagnon Robert E. | director | Award / grant | 12,500 | 12,500 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-22 | JOHNSON JOHN | director | Award / grant | 8,333 | 16,666 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-22 | JOHNSON JOHN | director | Award / grant | 12,500 | 12,500 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-22 | ROBERTSON MICHELLE | director | Award / grant | 8,333 | 16,666 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-22 | ROBERTSON MICHELLE | director | Award / grant | 12,500 | 12,500 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-22 | Kapur Anil | director | Award / grant | 12,500 | 12,500 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-22 | Kapur Anil | director | Award / grant | 8,333 | 16,666 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-22 | Rowinsky Eric K | director | Award / grant | 8,333 | 16,666 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-22 | Rowinsky Eric K | director | Award / grant | 12,500 | 12,500 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-22 | Kauffman Michael | director | Award / grant | 8,333 | 17,216 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-22 | Kauffman Michael | director | Award / grant | 12,500 | 12,500 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-22 | Stuglik Brian M | director | Award / grant | 12,500 | 12,500 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-22 | Tollefson Karin Anna | director | Award / grant | 8,333 | 16,666 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-22 | Tollefson Karin Anna | director | Award / grant | 12,500 | 12,500 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-16 | Calkins Daniel | officer | Award / grant | 38,850 | 125,198 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-16 | Paterson Dan | director | Award / grant | 25,000 | 370,659 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-16 | Paterson Dan | director | Award / grant | 150,000 | 520,659 | Form 4 |
| 2025-04-01 | Ros Matthew | director | Award / grant | 50,000 | 50,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-01-10 | Paterson Dan | director | Award / grant | 100,000 | 331,149 | Form 4 |
| 2025-01-10 | Calkins Daniel | officer | Award / grant | 38,800 | 86,439 | Form 4 |
| 2025-01-10 | Paterson Dan | director | Award / grant | 25,000 | 356,149 | Form 4 |
| 2024-06-18 | Rowinsky Eric K | director | Award / grant | 8,333 | 8,333 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.