VSECVSE CorporationIndustrials · Aerospace & Defenseas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $184.81 · now $184.81 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, VSEC has typically landed between $155.71 and $229.11 — a range of −15.7% to +24.0% from the issuance price $184.81.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($184.81) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where VSEC has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $184.81 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$155.71worst · -15.7%$229.11best · +24.0%
  • now $184.81 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $189.72 (+2.7%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $174.98–$204.46
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $155.71–$229.11
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,003 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2020-02-18−53.7%−53.7%+0.8%
2020-02-20−50.6%−54.0%+0.0%
2020-02-19−47.9%−54.1%+0.0%
3 best
2020-05-06+72.8%+0.0%+72.8%
2020-05-07+71.9%+0.0%+71.9%
2015-10-02+69.0%+0.0%+69.0%

5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
45%
−1.7%
n=20
Feb
60%
+2.5%
n=20
Mar
60%
−2.2%
n=20
Apr
40%
+2.7%
n=20
May
55%
+3.9%
n=20
Jun
60%
+4.0%
n=20
Jul
55%
+3.8%
n=20
Aug
60%
+0.5%
n=20
Sep
55%
−0.3%
n=20
Oct
55%
+7.6%
n=20
Nov
60%
+4.3%
n=20
Dec
55%
+1.7%
n=20

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$243$1552026-09-14: 4 insider sales, $294K — CUOMO JOHN A …2026-08-17: 8 insider sales, $4.2M — CUOMO JOHN A …2026-06-12: 1 insider sale, $1.3M — Thomas Benjamin E.2026-06: 1 open-market sale, $1.3M2026-08: 8 open-market sales, $4.2M2026-09: 4 open-market sales, $294K↑ buys↓ salesdirector CUOMO JOHN A — Sale on 2026-09-14, filed 2 days after the tradedirector CUOMO JOHN A — Sale on 2026-09-14, filed 2 days after the tradedirector CUOMO JOHN A — Sale on 2026-09-14, filed 2 days after the tradedirector CUOMO JOHN A — Sale on 2026-09-14, filed 2 days after the tradedirector CUOMO JOHN A — Sale on 2026-08-17, filed 2 days after the tradedirector CUOMO JOHN A — Sale on 2026-08-17, filed 2 days after the tradedirector CUOMO JOHN A — Sale on 2026-08-17, filed 2 days after the tradedirector CUOMO JOHN A — Sale on 2026-08-17, filed 2 days after the tradedirector CUOMO JOHN A — Sale on 2026-08-17, filed 2 days after the tradedirector CUOMO JOHN A — Sale on 2026-08-17, filed 2 days after the tradedirector CUOMO JOHN A — Sale on 2026-08-17, filed 2 days after the tradedirector CUOMO JOHN A — Sale on 2026-08-17, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Thomas Benjamin E. — Sale on 2026-06-12, filed same day
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-09-14CUOMO JOHN AdirectorSale912 @ $187.42$171K−0.5% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open168,391Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-09-14CUOMO JOHN AdirectorSale402 @ $188.22$76K−0.2% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open167,989Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-09-14CUOMO JOHN AdirectorSale234 @ $186.42$44K−0.1% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open169,303Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-09-14CUOMO JOHN AdirectorSale18 @ $188.88$3K−0.0% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open167,971Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-17CUOMO JOHN AdirectorSale5,492 @ $243.37$1.3M−3.1% of holding−21.7%not yet — horizon still open172,332Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-17CUOMO JOHN AdirectorSale4,215 @ $242.62$1.0M−2.3% of holding−21.7%not yet — horizon still open177,824Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-17CUOMO JOHN AdirectorSale2,794 @ $244.42$683K−1.6% of holding−21.7%not yet — horizon still open169,538Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-17CUOMO JOHN AdirectorSale2,147 @ $241.58$519K−1.2% of holding−21.7%not yet — horizon still open182,039Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-17CUOMO JOHN AdirectorSale1,492 @ $238.66$356K−0.8% of holding−21.7%not yet — horizon still open185,545Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-17CUOMO JOHN AdirectorSale905 @ $240.58$218K−0.5% of holding−21.7%not yet — horizon still open184,186Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-17CUOMO JOHN AdirectorSale454 @ $239.40$109K−0.2% of holding−21.7%not yet — horizon still open185,091Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-17CUOMO JOHN AdirectorSale1 @ $245.04$245−0.0% of holding−21.7%not yet — horizon still open169,537Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-06-12Thomas Benjamin E.officerSale6,500 @ $196.82$1.3M−13.2% of holding+2.0%not yet — horizon still open42,839Form 4 · filed same day
2025-05-09BRITT ANITA DdirectorSale2,869 @ $129.38$371K−42.8% of holding−3.6%+17.5%3,837Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

177 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-09-15FERGUSON III MARK EdirectorAward / grant148148Form 4
2026-09-15EBERHART RALPH EdirectorAward / grant6747,514Form 4
2026-09-11Cohn Adam RobertofficerWithheld for tax2,62415,192Form 4
2026-09-11Cohn Adam RobertofficerOption exercise5,99811,996Form 4
2026-09-11Cohn Adam RobertofficerOption exercise5,99817,816Form 4
2026-09-11Cohn Adam RobertofficerOption exercise5,99817,816Form 4
2026-09-11Cohn Adam RobertofficerOption exercise5,99817,816Form 4
2026-09-11Cohn Adam RobertofficerOption exercise5,99817,816Form 4
2026-08-11FERGUSON III MARK EdirectorGift350350Form 4
2026-08-11FERGUSON III MARK EdirectorGift35017,205Form 4
2026-07-20FERGUSON III MARK EdirectorGift13317,555Form 4
2026-07-20FERGUSON III MARK EdirectorGift1330Form 4
2026-06-30Thomas Benjamin E.officerAward / grant6942,908Form 4
2026-06-15FERGUSON III MARK EdirectorAward / grant133133Form 4
2026-06-15EBERHART RALPH EdirectorAward / grant6047,447Form 4
2026-05-20FERGUSON III MARK EdirectorGift1360Form 4
2026-05-20FERGUSON III MARK EdirectorGift13617,422Form 4
2026-03-16FERGUSON III MARK EdirectorAward / grant136136Form 4
2026-03-16EBERHART RALPH EdirectorAward / grant6247,387Form 4
2026-03-10CUOMO JOHN AdirectorWithheld for tax10,536187,037Form 4
2026-03-10Thomas Benjamin E.officerWithheld for tax1,94849,339Form 4
2026-03-10Thomas Benjamin E.officerAward / grant3,64051,287Form 4
2026-03-10Thomas Benjamin E.officerOption exercise1,3110Form 4
2026-03-10CUOMO JOHN AdirectorOption exercise6,6940Form 4
2026-03-10CUOMO JOHN AdirectorAward / grant20,081197,573Form 4
2026-03-10CUOMO JOHN AdirectorOption exercise6,694177,492Form 4
2026-03-10Thomas Benjamin E.officerOption exercise1,31147,647Form 4
2026-03-10CUOMO JOHN AdirectorOption exercise6,694177,492Form 4
2026-03-10Thomas Benjamin E.officerOption exercise1,31147,647Form 4
2026-03-09CUOMO JOHN AdirectorWithheld for tax7,469170,798Form 4
2026-03-09Cohn Adam RobertofficerWithheld for tax2,23711,818Form 4
2026-03-09Thomas Benjamin E.officerWithheld for tax1,51846,336Form 4
2026-03-08Thomas Benjamin E.officerOption exercise978978Form 4
2026-03-08Thomas Benjamin E.officerAward / grant2,87947,854Form 4
2026-03-08CUOMO JOHN AdirectorOption exercise4,6924,693Form 4
2026-03-08Cohn Adam RobertofficerOption exercise1,3201,320Form 4
2026-03-08CUOMO JOHN AdirectorAward / grant14,289178,267Form 4
2026-03-08Cohn Adam RobertofficerAward / grant3,79514,055Form 4
2026-03-08Thomas Benjamin E.officerOption exercise97844,975Form 4
2026-03-08CUOMO JOHN AdirectorOption exercise4,692163,978Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.