VRTXVertex Pharmaceuticals IncorporatedHealthcare · Biotechnologyas of 2026-08-13
Horizon

Issued 2026-08-13 at $516.44 · now $516.44 (2026-08-13, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-08-13 close, VRTX has typically landed between $468.69 and $581.57 — a range of −9.2% to +12.6% from the issuance price $516.44.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

4,662 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-07-15 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.8% (90% CI 51.6–56.0%, ≈1,400 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-08-13 issuance close ($516.44) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-09-11, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where VRTX has typically landed a month from the 2026-08-13 close of $516.44 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$468.69worst · -9.2%$581.57best · +12.6%
  • now $516.44 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $525.61 (+1.8%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $502.75–$548.48
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $468.69–$581.57
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,662 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-08-13. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2011-10-26−38.0%−38.0%+0.0%
2011-10-25−37.8%−37.8%+0.0%
2008-09-26−37.4%−38.1%+0.0%
3 best
2008-03-10+81.6%+0.0%+81.6%
2012-04-13+78.9%−1.9%+78.9%
2012-04-16+78.6%+0.0%+82.3%

4,662 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-13 · not cherry-picked

Pending catalysts

  • 2026-09-17 — Trial primary completion: Phase 3 primary completion: An Efficacy, Safety, and Tolerability Study of VX-880 in Participants With Type 1 Diabetes With a Kidney Transplant (source, as of 2026-08-14)
  • 2026-10-30 — Trial primary completion: Phase 3 primary completion: A Study Evaluating the Long-term Safety and Efficacy of VX-121 Combination Therapy (source, as of 2026-08-14)
  • 2026-12-30 — Trial primary completion: Phase 2 primary completion: Inaxaplin in Participants With Proteinuric APOL1 Mediated Kidney Disease With or Without Comorbidities (source, as of 2026-08-14)
  • 2027-01-25 — Trial primary completion: Phase 3 primary completion: Evaluation of the Long-term Safety and Effectiveness of Suzetrigine (SUZ) in Participants With Painful Diabetic Peripheral Neuropathy (DPN) (source, as of 2026-08-14)
  • 2027-02-02 — Trial primary completion: Phase 1/Phase PHASE2 primary completion: A Phase 1/2 Study of VX-670 in Adult Participants With Myotonic Dystrophy 1 (DM1) (source, as of 2026-08-14)
  • 2027-03-12 — Trial primary completion: Phase 1/Phase PHASE2 primary completion: A Safety, Tolerability, and Efficacy Study of VX-264 in Participants With Type 1 Diabetes (source, as of 2026-08-14)
  • 2027-03-25 — Trial primary completion: Phase 2 primary completion: Evaluation of Efficacy and Safety of VX-993 for Pain Associated With Diabetic Peripheral Neuropathy (source, as of 2026-08-14)
  • 2027-04-06 — Trial primary completion: Phase 3 primary completion: Study to Evaluate Elexacaftor/Tezacaftor/Ivacaftor (ELX/TEZ/IVA) Long-term Safety and Efficacy in Subjects Without F508del (source, as of 2026-08-14)
  • 2027-04-06 — Trial primary completion: Phase 3 primary completion: Evaluation of Efficacy and Safety of Suzetrigine (SUZ) for Pain Associated With Diabetic Peripheral Neuropathy (source, as of 2026-08-14)
  • 2027-05-31 — Trial primary completion: Phase 3 primary completion: Evaluation of Efficacy and Safety of Suzetrigine for Pain Associated With Diabetic Peripheral Neuropathy (source, as of 2026-08-14)
  • 2027-06-06 — Trial primary completion: Phase 3 primary completion: Evaluation of Safety and Efficacy of CTX001 in Pediatric Participants With Severe Sickle Cell Disease (SCD) (source, as of 2026-08-14)
  • 2027-06-09 — Trial primary completion: Phase 3 primary completion: Evaluation of Efficacy and Safety of a Single Dose of CTX001 in Participants With Transfusion-Dependent β-Thalassemia and Severe Sickle Cell Disease (source, as of 2026-08-14)

Public, scheduled events — dated attention, not a prediction of the outcome. See the FDA catalysts page for the historical base rate.

Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.

$121.2B
market cap
$16.86
EPS (TTM)
28.3
P/E (TTM)
2026-08-03
next earnings
Revenue$12.1B
'20'25
Net income$4.0B
'20'25
Free cash flow$3.2B
'20'25
Net margin · by yr32.7%
'20'25
ROE · by yr21.2%
'20'25
Debt / equity · by yr0.21
'20'25

Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.

iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 54 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.
now $516.44$328.72$637.28
  • DCF (intrinsic)$392.63
  • Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 27.4× · n=54$462.65
  • Analyst target · range $350.00–$616.00$576.00
  • Current price · last close 2026-08-13$516.44

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
78%
+5.0%
n=18
Feb
47%
+0.2%
n=19
Mar
58%
+3.9%
n=19
Apr
63%
+3.8%
n=19
May
58%
+4.9%
n=19
Jun
63%
+4.9%
n=19
Jul
53%
+0.9%
n=19
Aug
53%
−0.9%
n=19
Sep
50%
+0.3%
n=18
Oct
50%
−2.5%
n=18
Nov
56%
−0.4%
n=18
Dec
67%
+3.7%
n=18

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Company insiders iOpen-market share purchases and sales by the company's own officers and directors, by filing date.

Last 90 days · as of 2026-08-13 · point-in-time by filing date

Conviction purchases
none
0
Insider open-market sales
10 · $6.9M

Open-market common only — counts and totals, not a signal.

What was excluded from the conviction count, and why

2 award/RSU grants excluded — these carry no conviction information.

Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-08-13 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+28 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 53.7% vs 53.2% · n=26,833

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +28 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27).

'23 Q'24 Q'25 Q'25 Q'25 Q'26 Q'26 Qpurchases ▲ / sales ▼ ($ vol)
MemberChamberTypeFiledTradedSize
Alan ArmstrongSenatepurchase2026-07-212026-03-27$1–15K
David J. TaylorHousesale2026-02-022026-01-29$1–15K
Julia LetlowHousepurchase2026-01-132024-10-23$1–15K
David J. TaylorHousepurchase2025-09-022025-08-07$1–15K
Lisa McclainHousesale2025-08-132025-06-11$1–15K
Lisa McclainHousepurchase2025-08-132024-12-11$1–15K
Lisa McclainHousesale2025-08-132025-06-10$1–15K
Jefferson ShreveHousesale2025-06-222025-05-12$15–50K
Byron DonaldsHousesale2025-04-142025-03-20$1–15K
Byron DonaldsHousesale2025-04-142025-03-20$1–15K
Jefferson ShreveHousepurchase2025-04-112025-03-13$15–50K
Jefferson ShreveHousepurchase2025-03-092025-02-24$15–50K
Tommy TubervilleSenatesale2024-06-142024-05-03$1–15K
HON. GREG STANTONHousesale2023-11-092023-10-24$1–15K

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. Full terms.