VRTS · TickerCove

VRTSVirtus Investment Partners, Inc.as of 2026-09-16

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $130.76 · now $130.76 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, VRTS has typically landed between $109.69 and $152.62 — a range of −16.1% to +16.7% from the issuance price $130.76.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

4,420 overlapping 1 month windows · 2009-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($130.76) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$130.76 · 11% of range

$123.33 low$192.48 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-16 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,408 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

53.9%

90% CI 51.7%–56.1%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

−0.4%

typical move · IQR 13.7%

−16.1%worst (p90)+16.7%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

0 buys · 14 sells · 1 member

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where VRTS has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $130.76 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $130.76 (+0.0%)
typical $130.3 (-0.4%)
middle 50% $121.38–$139.23
90% range $109.69–$152.62

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,420 windows spanning 2009-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2020-02-21	−57.4%	−57.4%	+0.0%
2009-01-06	−51.1%	−51.7%	+0.0%
2020-02-20	−50.7%	−50.7%	+0.0%
3 best
2009-04-08	+114.4%	+0.0%	+114.4%
2009-04-14	+96.5%	+0.0%	+101.8%
2009-04-13	+92.0%	−4.9%	+92.0%

4,420 overlapping windows · 2009-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~18 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

53%

−0.4%

n=17

Feb

50%

+1.7%

n=18

Mar

39%

−1.5%

n=18

Apr

61%

+5.3%

n=18

May

61%

+3.5%

n=18

Jun

61%

+1.6%

n=18

Jul

83%

+9.5%

n=18

Aug

50%

−0.9%

n=18

Sep

28%

−4.5%

n=18

Oct

71%

+5.7%

n=17

Nov

76%

+7.4%

n=17

Dec

59%

+1.3%

n=17

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing
2026-09-15	MORRIS W HOWARD	director	Sale	435 @ $138.59	$60K	−100.0% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	0	Form 4 · filed same day
2026-08-03	Angerthal Michael A	officer	Sale	4,568 @ $167.44	$765K	−6.3% of holding	−6.5%	not yet — horizon still open	68,509	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-03	Angerthal Michael A	officer	Sale	2,758 @ $166.53	$459K	−3.6% of holding	−6.5%	not yet — horizon still open	73,077	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-03	Angerthal Michael A	officer	Sale	2,643 @ $168.41	$445K	−3.9% of holding	−6.5%	not yet — horizon still open	65,866	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-03	Angerthal Michael A	officer	Sale	2,285 @ $169.72	$388K	−3.5% of holding	−6.5%	not yet — horizon still open	63,581	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-03	Angerthal Michael A	officer	Sale	1,722 @ $164.47	$283K	−2.2% of holding	−6.5%	not yet — horizon still open	76,714	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-03	Angerthal Michael A	officer	Sale	879 @ $165.21	$145K	−1.1% of holding	−6.5%	not yet — horizon still open	75,835	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-03	Angerthal Michael A	officer	Sale	120 @ $170.29	$20K	−0.2% of holding	−6.5%	not yet — horizon still open	63,461	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-06-16	Mandinach Barry M.	officer	Sale	4,500 @ $144.71	$651K	−28.5% of holding	+15.4%	not yet — horizon still open	11,315	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-06-16	Mandinach Barry M.	officer	Sale	500 @ $145.25	$73K	−4.4% of holding	+15.4%	not yet — horizon still open	10,815	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-12	MORRIS W HOWARD	director	Purchase	2,000 @ $129.35	$259K	ownership Δ n/a	+5.7%	not yet — horizon still open	2,000	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-03-12	MORRIS W HOWARD	director	Purchase	1,900 @ $129.62	$246K	+78.9% of holding	+5.7%	not yet — horizon still open	4,307	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-03-12	MORRIS W HOWARD	director	Purchase	150 @ $129.23	$19K	ownership Δ n/a	+5.7%	not yet — horizon still open	150	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-02-11	Fleming Susan S.	director	Sale	2,151 @ $142.32	$306K	−17.2% of holding	−5.5%	+9.0%	10,355	Form 4 · filed same day
2026-02-11	Fleming Susan S.	director	Sale	1,000 @ $142.22	$142K	−7.3% of holding	−5.5%	+9.0%	12,677	Form 4 · filed same day
2026-02-11	Fleming Susan S.	director	Sale	171 @ $142.75	$24K	−1.3% of holding	−5.5%	+9.0%	12,506	Form 4 · filed same day
2025-12-11	Fleming Susan S.	director	Sale	1,819 @ $168.49	$306K	−10.9% of holding	−0.6%	−22.0%	14,817	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-12-11	Fleming Susan S.	director	Sale	1,140 @ $167.98	$191K	−7.7% of holding	−0.6%	−22.0%	13,677	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

34 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-05-20	HOLT TIMOTHY A	director	Award / grant	1,377	33,178	Form 4
2026-05-20	Greig Paul G	director	Award / grant	833	4,993	Form 4
2026-05-20	BAIN PETER L	director	Award / grant	806	4,819	Form 4
2026-05-20	Weisenseel John C	director	Award / grant	779	1,388	Form 4
2026-05-20	MORRIS W HOWARD	director	Award / grant	779	5,086	Form 4
2026-03-13	AYLWARD GEORGE R	director	Award / grant	12,688	291,377	Form 4
2026-03-13	Smirl Richard W	officer	Award / grant	5,155	17,298	Form 4
2026-03-13	Angerthal Michael A	officer	Award / grant	5,155	78,436	Form 4
2026-03-13	AYLWARD GEORGE R	director	Withheld for tax	3,940	278,689	Form 4
2026-03-13	Mandinach Barry M.	officer	Award / grant	3,093	15,815	Form 4
2026-03-13	Purkalitis Andra C	officer	Award / grant	2,578	5,430	Form 4
2026-03-13	Lieberman Elizabeth A	officer	Award / grant	2,448	5,389	Form 4
2026-03-13	Smirl Richard W	officer	Withheld for tax	1,121	12,026	Form 4
2026-03-13	Angerthal Michael A	officer	Withheld for tax	772	73,281	Form 4
2026-03-13	Mandinach Barry M.	officer	Withheld for tax	741	12,722	Form 4
2026-03-13	Purkalitis Andra C	officer	Withheld for tax	390	2,840	Form 4
2026-03-13	Lieberman Elizabeth A	officer	Withheld for tax	143	2,941	Form 4
2025-05-14	HOLT TIMOTHY A	director	Award / grant	1,056	31,801	Form 4
2025-05-14	JONES MELODY L	director	Award / grant	659	8,872	Form 4
2025-05-14	Fleming Susan S.	director	Award / grant	652	16,636	Form 4
2025-05-14	Greig Paul G	director	Award / grant	652	4,160	Form 4
2025-05-14	BAIN PETER L	director	Award / grant	609	4,013	Form 4
2025-05-14	MORRIS W HOWARD	director	Award / grant	609	2,407	Form 4
2025-05-14	Weisenseel John C	director	Award / grant	609	609	Form 4
2025-05-02	Smirl Richard W	officer	Withheld for tax	435	13,147	Form 4
2025-03-14	AYLWARD GEORGE R	director	Withheld for tax	3,648	273,397	Form 4
2025-03-14	Smirl Richard W	officer	Withheld for tax	1,121	10,563	Form 4
2025-03-14	Mandinach Barry M.	officer	Withheld for tax	686	11,732	Form 4
2025-03-14	Purkalitis Andra C	officer	Award / grant	1,442	3,230	Form 4
2025-03-14	Lieberman Elizabeth A	officer	Award / grant	1,370	3,084	Form 4
2025-03-14	AYLWARD GEORGE R	director	Award / grant	9,232	282,629	Form 4
2025-03-14	Mandinach Barry M.	officer	Award / grant	1,731	13,463	Form 4
2025-03-14	Angerthal Michael A	officer	Award / grant	2,668	74,053	Form 4
2025-03-14	Smirl Richard W	officer	Award / grant	2,885	13,557	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iiDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks

Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

Member	Chamber	Type	Filed	Traded	Size
Michael T. McCaul	House	sale	2020-05-06	2020-02-25	$1–15K
Michael T. McCaul	House	sale	2020-05-06	2020-03-03	$1–15K
Michael T. McCaul	House	sale	2020-05-06	2020-03-31	$15–50K
Michael T. McCaul	House	sale	2020-05-06	2020-03-03	$1–15K
Michael T. McCaul	House	sale	2020-05-06	2020-03-31	$50–100K
Michael T. McCaul	House	sale	2020-05-06	2020-03-04	$1–15K
Michael T. McCaul	House	sale	2020-05-06	2020-03-04	$1–15K
Michael T. McCaul	House	sale	2020-05-06	2020-02-26	$1–15K
Michael T. McCaul	House	sale	2020-05-06	2020-02-26	$1–15K
Michael T. McCaul	House	sale	2020-05-06	2020-02-25	$1–15K
Michael T. McCaul	House	sale	2020-04-20	2020-02-25	$1–15K
Michael T. McCaul	House	sale	2020-04-20	2020-02-25	$1–15K
Michael T. McCaul	House	sale	2020-04-20	2020-02-26	$1–15K
Michael T. McCaul	House	sale	2020-04-20	2020-02-26	$1–15K

Resolves in i

28d remaining

2026-09-174% elapsed2026-10-15

Logged immutably 2026-09-17; scored automatically on 2026-10-15 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Seasonality · by month i