Issued 2026-09-25 at $253.28 · now $253.28 (2026-09-25, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-25 close, VRT has typically landed between $198.39 and $338.60 — a range of −21.7% to +33.7% from the issuance price $253.28.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
2,030 overlapping 1 month windows · 2018-07-30 – 2026-08-26 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Base rate up 53.7% (90% CI 51.5–55.9%, ≈1,391 obs). Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-25 issuance close ($253.28) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-26, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where VRT has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-25 close of $253.28 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $253.28 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $267.08 (+5.4%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $236.21–$297.94
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $198.39–$338.6
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2020-02-18 | −58.3% | −58.3% | +0.9% |
| 2022-02-04 | −52.2% | −52.9% | +7.0% |
| 2022-02-03 | −52.0% | −52.0% | +9.1% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2020-03-18 | +84.7% | +0.0% | +84.7% |
| 2022-07-14 | +60.4% | +0.0% | +60.4% |
| 2025-04-21 | +57.5% | +0.0% | +62.0% |
2,030 overlapping windows · 2018-07-30 – 2026-09-25 · not cherry-picked
Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.
Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.
iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 74 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.- DCF (intrinsic)$18.13
- Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 30.7× · n=74$122.00
- Analyst target · range $277.00–$500.00$360.00
- Current price · last close 2026-09-25$253.28
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~9 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-01 | MONSER EDWARD L | director | Sale | 3,520 @ $255.58 | $900K | −15.9% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 18,587 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-01 | MONSER EDWARD L | director | Sale | 3,040 @ $254.63 | $774K | −12.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 22,107 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-01 | MONSER EDWARD L | director | Sale | 2,280 @ $252.53 | $576K | −8.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 26,147 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-01 | MONSER EDWARD L | director | Sale | 2,087 @ $256.36 | $535K | −11.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 16,500 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-01 | MONSER EDWARD L | director | Sale | 1,440 @ $251.56 | $362K | −4.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 28,427 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-01 | MONSER EDWARD L | director | Sale | 1,040 @ $250.58 | $261K | −3.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 29,867 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-01 | MONSER EDWARD L | director | Sale | 1,000 @ $253.37 | $253K | −3.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 25,147 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-01 | MONSER EDWARD L | director | Sale | 880 @ $249.43 | $219K | −2.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 30,907 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-06 | MONSER EDWARD L | director | Sale | 13,306 @ $246.60 | $3.3M | −23.3% of holding | +10.2% | +0.9% | 43,811 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-06 | MONSER EDWARD L | director | Sale | 12,758 @ $248.56 | $3.2M | −37.9% of holding | +10.2% | +0.9% | 20,891 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-06 | MONSER EDWARD L | director | Sale | 12,127 @ $241.62 | $2.9M | −13.7% of holding | +10.2% | +0.9% | 76,367 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-06 | MONSER EDWARD L | director | Sale | 10,269 @ $245.65 | $2.5M | −15.2% of holding | +10.2% | +0.9% | 57,117 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-06 | MONSER EDWARD L | director | Sale | 10,162 @ $247.64 | $2.5M | −23.2% of holding | +10.2% | +0.9% | 33,649 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-06 | MONSER EDWARD L | director | Sale | 4,714 @ $242.20 | $1.1M | −6.2% of holding | +10.2% | +0.9% | 71,653 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-06 | MONSER EDWARD L | director | Sale | 3,600 @ $240.47 | $866K | −3.9% of holding | +10.2% | +0.9% | 88,494 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-06 | MONSER EDWARD L | director | Sale | 2,491 @ $249.58 | $622K | −11.9% of holding | +10.2% | +0.9% | 18,400 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-06 | MONSER EDWARD L | director | Sale | 2,200 @ $243.56 | $536K | −3.1% of holding | +10.2% | +0.9% | 69,453 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-06 | MONSER EDWARD L | director | Sale | 2,067 @ $244.56 | $506K | −3.0% of holding | +10.2% | +0.9% | 67,386 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-06 | MONSER EDWARD L | director | Sale | 1,900 @ $250.46 | $476K | −10.3% of holding | +10.2% | +0.9% | 16,500 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-06 | MONSER EDWARD L | director | Sale | 1,700 @ $239.34 | $407K | −1.8% of holding | +10.2% | +0.9% | 92,094 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-27 | FRADIN ROGER | director | Sale | 20,909 @ $251.62 | $5.3M | −38.3% of holding | −0.5% | −11.8% | 33,674 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-27 | FRADIN ROGER | director | Sale | 20,808 @ $251.61 | $5.2M | −28.9% of holding | −0.5% | −11.8% | 51,275 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-27 | FRADIN ROGER | director | Sale | 17,293 @ $252.29 | $4.4M | −51.4% of holding | −0.5% | −11.8% | 16,381 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-27 | FRADIN ROGER | director | Sale | 16,275 @ $252.26 | $4.1M | −31.7% of holding | −0.5% | −11.8% | 35,000 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-27 | FRADIN ROGER | director | Sale | 16,181 @ $253.49 | $4.1M | −98.8% of holding | −0.5% | −11.8% | 200 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-27 | FRADIN ROGER | director | Sale | 9,470 @ $251.53 | $2.4M | −23.7% of holding | −0.5% | −11.8% | 30,530 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-27 | FRADIN ROGER | director | Sale | 530 @ $252.02 | $134K | −1.7% of holding | −0.5% | −11.8% | 30,000 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-27 | FRADIN ROGER | director | Sale | 200 @ $254.09 | $51K | −100.0% of holding | −0.5% | −11.8% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-26 | FRADIN ROGER | director | Sale | 27,354 @ $252.61 | $6.9M | −25.1% of holding | +4.6% | −8.5% | 81,812 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-26 | DOKKUM JAN VAN | director | Sale | 22,989 @ $254.49 | $5.9M | −36.1% of holding | +4.6% | −8.5% | 40,658 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-26 | REINEMUND STEVEN | director | Sale | 19,207 @ $250.14 | $4.8M | −14.4% of holding | +4.6% | −8.5% | 114,126 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-26 | FRADIN ROGER | director | Sale | 18,561 @ $252.61 | $4.7M | −17.0% of holding | +4.6% | −8.5% | 90,606 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-26 | DOKKUM JAN VAN | director | Sale | 15,658 @ $255.42 | $4.0M | −38.5% of holding | +4.6% | −8.5% | 25,000 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-26 | FRADIN ROGER | director | Sale | 13,287 @ $253.67 | $3.4M | −16.2% of holding | +4.6% | −8.5% | 68,525 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-26 | FRADIN ROGER | director | Sale | 12,098 @ $254.70 | $3.1M | −17.7% of holding | +4.6% | −8.5% | 56,427 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-26 | REINEMUND STEVEN | director | Sale | 10,802 @ $252.42 | $2.7M | −9.6% of holding | +4.6% | −8.5% | 101,951 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-26 | REINEMUND STEVEN | director | Sale | 10,342 @ $250.14 | $2.6M | −29.5% of holding | +4.6% | −8.5% | 24,658 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-26 | REINEMUND STEVEN | director | Sale | 9,927 @ $259.09 | $2.6M | −12.7% of holding | +4.6% | −8.5% | 68,333 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-26 | Karlborg Anders | officer | Sale | 10,290 @ $245.17 | $2.5M | −15.8% of holding | +4.6% | −8.5% | 54,943 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-26 | Karlborg Anders | officer | Sale | 9,347 @ $248.89 | $2.3M | −21.2% of holding | +4.6% | −8.5% | 34,746 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-26 | FRADIN ROGER | director | Sale | 9,056 @ $253.67 | $2.3M | −10.0% of holding | +4.6% | −8.5% | 81,550 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-26 | COTE DAVID M | director | Sale | 8,437 @ $256.42 | $2.2M | −19.6% of holding | +4.6% | −8.5% | 34,709 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-26 | FRADIN ROGER | director | Sale | 8,216 @ $254.70 | $2.1M | −10.1% of holding | +4.6% | −8.5% | 73,334 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-26 | REINEMUND STEVEN | director | Sale | 7,775 @ $253.51 | $2.0M | −7.6% of holding | +4.6% | −8.5% | 94,176 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-26 | COTE DAVID M | director | Sale | 7,518 @ $257.45 | $1.9M | −21.7% of holding | +4.6% | −8.5% | 27,191 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-26 | Karlborg Anders | officer | Sale | 7,500 @ $246.54 | $1.8M | −13.7% of holding | +4.6% | −8.5% | 47,443 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-26 | REINEMUND STEVEN | director | Sale | 6,882 @ $257.52 | $1.8M | −8.1% of holding | +4.6% | −8.5% | 78,260 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-26 | REINEMUND STEVEN | director | Sale | 6,475 @ $256.57 | $1.7M | −7.1% of holding | +4.6% | −8.5% | 85,143 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-26 | REINEMUND STEVEN | director | Sale | 5,816 @ $252.42 | $1.5M | −24.3% of holding | +4.6% | −8.5% | 18,102 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-26 | COTE DAVID M | director | Sale | 5,732 @ $253.38 | $1.5M | −10.4% of holding | +4.6% | −8.5% | 49,280 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-26 | REINEMUND STEVEN | director | Sale | 5,346 @ $259.09 | $1.4M | −100.0% of holding | +4.6% | −8.5% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-26 | COTE DAVID M | director | Sale | 5,122 @ $252.19 | $1.3M | −8.5% of holding | +4.6% | −8.5% | 55,012 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-26 | COTE DAVID M | director | Sale | 4,933 @ $258.26 | $1.3M | −18.1% of holding | +4.6% | −8.5% | 22,258 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-26 | FRADIN ROGER | director | Sale | 5,003 @ $252.61 | $1.3M | −10.0% of holding | +4.6% | −8.5% | 44,997 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-26 | REINEMUND STEVEN | director | Sale | 4,187 @ $253.51 | $1.1M | −23.1% of holding | +4.6% | −8.5% | 13,915 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-26 | REINEMUND STEVEN | director | Sale | 3,706 @ $257.52 | $954K | −40.9% of holding | +4.6% | −8.5% | 5,346 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-26 | REINEMUND STEVEN | director | Sale | 3,486 @ $256.57 | $894K | −27.8% of holding | +4.6% | −8.5% | 9,051 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-26 | COTE DAVID M | director | Sale | 3,301 @ $254.39 | $840K | −6.7% of holding | +4.6% | −8.5% | 45,979 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-26 | Karlborg Anders | officer | Sale | 3,350 @ $247.66 | $830K | −7.1% of holding | +4.6% | −8.5% | 44,083 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-26 | COTE DAVID M | director | Sale | 2,833 @ $255.33 | $723K | −6.2% of holding | +4.6% | −8.5% | 43,146 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
216 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-24 | Shen Wei | officer | Award / grant | 1 | 3,320 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-24 | Ryan Paul | officer | Award / grant | 3 | 18,635 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-24 | Albertazzi Giordano | director | Award / grant | 13 | 47,600 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-24 | Armul Scott | officer | Award / grant | 6 | 32,043 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-24 | Chamberlin Craig | officer | Award / grant | 1 | 5,599 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-24 | Gill Stephanie L | officer | Award / grant | 6 | 34,435 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-24 | Karlborg Anders | officer | Award / grant | 5 | 34,615 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-24 | Poncheri Frank | officer | Award / grant | 4 | 14,311 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-24 | Johnson Eric M. | officer | Award / grant | 1 | 1,942 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-24 | Sanghi Anand | officer | Award / grant | 4 | 36,373 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-15 | Poncheri Frank | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,352 | 14,308 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-08 | Albertazzi Giordano | director | Gift | 118,523 | 47,588 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | MONSER EDWARD L | director | Option exercise | 15,287 | 31,787 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | MONSER EDWARD L | director | Option exercise | 15,287 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-25 | Poncheri Frank | officer | Award / grant | 3 | 16,660 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-25 | Armul Scott | officer | Award / grant | 5 | 32,037 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-25 | Ryan Paul | officer | Award / grant | 2 | 18,632 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-25 | Karlborg Anders | officer | Award / grant | 4 | 34,610 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-25 | Albertazzi Giordano | director | Award / grant | 10 | 166,111 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-25 | Sanghi Anand | officer | Award / grant | 3 | 36,368 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-25 | Shen Wei | officer | Award / grant | 0 | 3,320 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-25 | Johnson Eric M. | officer | Award / grant | 0 | 1,942 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-25 | Gill Stephanie L | officer | Award / grant | 5 | 34,429 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-25 | Chamberlin Craig | officer | Award / grant | 1 | 5,597 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-17 | Mikkilineni Krishna | director | Award / grant | 3,076 | 3,076 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-05 | He Ying Frieda | officer | Award / grant | 3,941 | 3,941 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-04 | Ryan Paul | officer | Withheld for tax | 735 | 18,629 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-04 | Armul Scott | officer | Withheld for tax | 511 | 32,032 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-04 | Karlborg Anders | officer | Withheld for tax | 144 | 34,607 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-26 | Shen Wei | officer | Award / grant | 0 | 3,319 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-26 | Sanghi Anand | officer | Award / grant | 4 | 36,365 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-26 | Chamberlin Craig | officer | Award / grant | 1 | 5,596 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-26 | Gill Stephanie L | officer | Award / grant | 5 | 34,424 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-26 | Poncheri Frank | officer | Award / grant | 3 | 16,657 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-26 | Armul Scott | officer | Award / grant | 6 | 32,543 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-26 | Karlborg Anders | officer | Award / grant | 4 | 34,751 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-26 | Ryan Paul | officer | Award / grant | 3 | 19,364 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-26 | Johnson Eric M. | officer | Award / grant | 0 | 1,941 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-26 | Albertazzi Giordano | director | Award / grant | 11 | 166,101 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-15 | Shen Wei | officer | Withheld for tax | 930 | 3,319 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.
As of 2026-09-25 · point-in-time by filed date
A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).
| Member | Chamber | Type | Filed | Traded | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alan Armstrong | Senate | purchase | 2026-07-21 | 2026-03-27 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-07-06 | 2026-06-30 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-06-09 | 2026-05-27 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-05-11 | 2026-04-13 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-05-11 | 2026-04-24 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-04-07 | 2026-03-30 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-04-07 | 2026-03-30 | $1–15K |
| Gilbert Cisneros | House | purchase | 2026-02-13 | 2026-01-30 | $1–15K |
| Gilbert Cisneros | House | sale | 2026-01-12 | 2025-12-24 | $1–15K |
| Gilbert Cisneros | House | purchase | 2025-12-15 | 2025-11-18 | $1–15K |
| Lisa Mcclain | House | purchase | 2025-11-21 | 2025-10-30 | $1–15K |
| Lisa Mcclain | House | sale | 2025-11-21 | 2025-10-30 | $1–15K |
| Lisa Mcclain | House | sale | 2025-11-21 | 2025-10-31 | $1–15K |
| Gilbert Cisneros | House | purchase | 2025-11-18 | 2025-10-17 | $1–15K |
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.