Issued 2026-09-16 at $181.75 · now $181.75 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, VRSK has typically landed between $160.44 and $201.18 — a range of −11.7% to +10.7% from the issuance price $181.75.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
4,240 overlapping 1 month windows · 2009-10-07 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($181.75) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where VRSK has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $181.75 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $181.75 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $182.4 (+0.4%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $174.39–$190.4
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $160.44–$201.18
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2020-02-21 | −28.0% | −28.0% | +0.3% |
| 2020-02-20 | −26.5% | −26.5% | +0.0% |
| 2026-01-09 | −24.6% | −24.6% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2020-03-23 | +24.8% | +0.0% | +26.9% |
| 2022-02-28 | +21.3% | +0.0% | +21.3% |
| 2022-03-01 | +21.2% | +0.0% | +21.2% |
4,240 overlapping windows · 2009-10-07 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.
Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.
iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 74 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.- DCF (intrinsic)$280.18
- Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 30.7× · n=74$201.39
- Analyst target · range $185.00–$260.00$227.00
- Current price · last close 2026-09-16$181.75
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~17 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-15 | Mann Elizabeth | director | Sale | 400 @ $184.91 | $74K | −2.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 17,984 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-01 | Shavel Lee | director | Sale | 3,535 @ $193.43 | $684K | −3.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 98,490 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-17 | Mann Elizabeth | director | Sale | 400 @ $179.95 | $72K | −2.1% of holding | +5.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 18,384 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-03 | Shavel Lee | director | Sale | 3,535 @ $196.94 | $696K | −3.5% of holding | +0.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 98,490 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-07-31 | Beckles Kathy Card | officer | Sale | 2,020 @ $195.49 | $395K | −14.9% of holding | −3.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 11,516 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-07-29 | Shavel Lee | director | Sale | 2,500 @ $220.00 | $550K | −2.5% of holding | −16.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 98,490 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-15 | Mann Elizabeth | director | Sale | 400 @ $192.11 | $77K | −2.1% of holding | −6.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 18,784 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-15 | Mann Elizabeth | director | Sale | 400 @ $179.54 | $72K | −2.0% of holding | +11.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 19,184 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-05 | LISS SAMUEL G | director | Sale | 4,671 @ $182.21 | $851K | −6.3% of holding | +3.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 69,098 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-02 | LISS SAMUEL G | director | Sale | 6,765 @ $177.63 | $1.2M | −8.9% of holding | +7.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 69,098 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-01 | Hansen Bruce Edward | director | Sale | 2,336 @ $174.99 | $409K | −12.8% of holding | +1.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 15,868 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-22 | Hansen Bruce Edward | director | Sale | 2,335 @ $171.51 | $400K | −12.8% of holding | +6.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 15,868 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-15 | Mann Elizabeth | director | Sale | 400 @ $159.22 | $64K | −2.0% of holding | +9.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 19,584 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-04-15 | Mann Elizabeth | director | Sale | 400 @ $171.57 | $69K | −2.0% of holding | −18.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 19,984 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-17 | Mann Elizabeth | director | Sale | 400 @ $204.71 | $82K | −1.9% of holding | −17.4% | −23.6% | 20,384 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-20 | PERRY CHRISTOPHER JOHN | director | Purchase | 1,000 @ $180.00 | $180K | +50.2% of holding | +14.5% | −8.4% | 2,994 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-20 | Stevenson Kimberly S | director | Purchase | 1,000 @ $179.20 | $179K | +29.3% of holding | +14.5% | −8.4% | 4,415 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-20 | Hendrick Gregory | director | Purchase | 500 @ $180.16 | $90K | +19.2% of holding | +14.5% | −8.4% | 3,106 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-16 | Mann Elizabeth | director | Sale | 300 @ $219.54 | $66K | −2.1% of holding | −0.9% | −30.6% | 14,265 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-11-18 | Shavel Lee | director | Sale | 1,100 @ $220.07 | $242K | −1.4% of holding | −4.2% | −35.8% | 76,707 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-11-17 | Shavel Lee | director | Sale | 1,100 @ $216.99 | $239K | −1.4% of holding | −0.6% | −33.7% | 77,807 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-17 | Mann Elizabeth | director | Sale | 300 @ $216.99 | $65K | −2.0% of holding | −0.6% | −33.7% | 14,565 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-10-31 | DAILEY JEFFREY J | director | Purchase | 500 @ $217.03 | $109K | +14.4% of holding | +2.9% | −23.8% | 3,962 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-31 | Hendrick Gregory | director | Purchase | 500 @ $216.14 | $108K | +24.6% of holding | +2.9% | −23.8% | 2,536 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-31 | Purtill Sabra R. | director | Purchase | 450 @ $217.95 | $98K | +51.3% of holding | +2.9% | −23.8% | 1,327 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-15 | Mann Elizabeth | director | Sale | 300 @ $242.23 | $73K | −2.0% of holding | −11.8% | −34.0% | 14,865 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-09-16 | Mann Elizabeth | director | Sale | 300 @ $254.72 | $76K | −1.9% of holding | −4.2% | −19.3% | 15,165 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-09-03 | Daffan Nicholas | officer | Sale | 5,420 @ $265.00 | $1.4M | −9.1% of holding | −11.9% | −27.5% | 54,337 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-08-18 | Shavel Lee | director | Sale | 1,100 @ $268.01 | $295K | −1.4% of holding | −8.3% | −37.8% | 78,907 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-08-15 | Shavel Lee | director | Sale | 1,100 @ $268.00 | $295K | −1.4% of holding | −8.4% | −40.3% | 80,007 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-15 | Mann Elizabeth | director | Sale | 300 @ $268.00 | $80K | −1.9% of holding | −8.4% | −40.3% | 15,465 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-13 | PERRY CHRISTOPHER JOHN | director | Purchase | 1,000 @ $259.80 | $260K | +129.4% of holding | −2.7% | −38.2% | 1,773 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-04 | Daffan Nicholas | officer | Sale | 5,420 @ $272.03 | $1.5M | −9.0% of holding | −1.8% | −37.8% | 55,125 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-07-15 | Mann Elizabeth | director | Sale | 300 @ $303.88 | $91K | −1.9% of holding | −15.6% | −37.9% | 15,765 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-07-03 | Daffan Nicholas | officer | Sale | 5,419 @ $300.86 | $1.6M | −8.8% of holding | −12.8% | −36.9% | 55,913 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-03 | Beckles Kathy Card | officer | Sale | 326 @ $300.86 | $98K | −3.4% of holding | −12.8% | −36.9% | 9,319 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-17 | Mann Elizabeth | director | Sale | 300 @ $308.90 | $93K | −1.8% of holding | −7.1% | −43.2% | 16,065 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-06-13 | LISS SAMUEL G | director | Sale | 10,503 @ $312.98 | $3.3M | −13.3% of holding | −7.7% | −44.8% | 68,397 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-06-13 | LISS SAMUEL G | director | Sale | 1,153 @ $313.76 | $362K | −1.7% of holding | −7.7% | −44.8% | 67,244 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-06-04 | Daffan Nicholas | officer | Sale | 5,419 @ $318.10 | $1.7M | −8.7% of holding | −8.4% | −45.3% | 56,701 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-16 | Shavel Lee | director | Sale | 1,100 @ $307.88 | $339K | −1.8% of holding | −1.2% | −43.8% | 60,218 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-15 | Shavel Lee | director | Sale | 1,100 @ $302.17 | $332K | −1.8% of holding | −1.2% | −43.4% | 61,318 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-15 | Mann Elizabeth | director | Sale | 300 @ $302.17 | $91K | −1.8% of holding | −1.2% | −43.4% | 16,365 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-09 | Grover David J. | officer | Sale | 5,705 @ $307.68 | $1.8M | −30.6% of holding | −6.0% | −50.0% | 12,937 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-04-15 | Mann Elizabeth | director | Sale | 300 @ $295.38 | $89K | −1.8% of holding | −5.7% | −41.5% | 16,665 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-04-07 | Hansen Bruce Edward | director | Sale | 1,179 @ $285.86 | $337K | −7.9% of holding | +0.2% | −44.6% | 13,786 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-18 | Shavel Lee | director | Sale | 1,100 @ $289.16 | $318K | −1.7% of holding | +7.2% | −31.5% | 62,418 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-03-17 | Shavel Lee | director | Sale | 1,100 @ $287.83 | $317K | −1.7% of holding | +6.3% | −30.3% | 63,518 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-17 | Mann Elizabeth | director | Sale | 300 @ $287.83 | $86K | −1.7% of holding | +6.3% | −30.3% | 16,965 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-07 | Hansen Bruce Edward | director | Sale | 1,179 @ $295.36 | $348K | −7.9% of holding | +4.8% | −22.2% | 13,786 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-07 | Hansen Bruce Edward | director | Sale | 1,179 @ $294.95 | $348K | −7.9% of holding | +6.4% | −15.2% | 13,786 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-01-17 | Beckles Kathy Card | officer | Sale | 2,111 @ $282.06 | $595K | −18.9% of holding | +3.6% | +1.5% | 9,066 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-01-07 | Hansen Bruce Edward | director | Sale | 1,179 @ $272.81 | $322K | −7.9% of holding | +5.3% | +3.6% | 13,786 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-12-16 | Mann Elizabeth | director | Sale | 200 @ $283.75 | $57K | −1.3% of holding | +0.2% | +10.2% | 15,408 | Form 4 · filed same day |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
150 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-01 | Shavel Lee | director | Option exercise | 3,535 | 102,025 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Shavel Lee | director | Option exercise | 3,535 | 10,604 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | Shavel Lee | director | Option exercise | 3,535 | 102,025 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | Shavel Lee | director | Option exercise | 3,535 | 14,139 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | Patiath Pradip | director | Award / grant | 69 | 1,421 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | Hendrick Gregory | director | Award / grant | 146 | 4,737 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | LISS SAMUEL G | director | Award / grant | 167 | 69,265 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | PERRY CHRISTOPHER JOHN | director | Award / grant | 146 | 4,625 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | Purtill Sabra R. | director | Award / grant | 163 | 3,092 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-05 | LISS SAMUEL G | director | Option exercise | 4,671 | 73,769 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-05 | LISS SAMUEL G | director | Option exercise | 4,671 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-02 | LISS SAMUEL G | director | Option exercise | 6,765 | 75,863 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-02 | LISS SAMUEL G | director | Option exercise | 6,765 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Hansen Bruce Edward | director | Option exercise | 2,336 | 18,204 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Hansen Bruce Edward | director | Option exercise | 2,336 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-22 | Hansen Bruce Edward | director | Option exercise | 2,335 | 18,203 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-22 | Hansen Bruce Edward | director | Option exercise | 2,335 | 2,336 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-19 | LISS SAMUEL G | director | Award / grant | 1,347 | 69,098 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-19 | DAILEY JEFFREY J | director | Award / grant | 1,347 | 5,309 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-19 | PERRY CHRISTOPHER JOHN | director | Award / grant | 1,347 | 4,479 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-19 | Patiath Pradip | director | Award / grant | 1,347 | 1,352 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-19 | Purtill Sabra R. | director | Award / grant | 1,347 | 2,929 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-19 | Soroye Olumide | director | Award / grant | 1,347 | 5,185 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-19 | Stevenson Kimberly S | director | Award / grant | 1,347 | 5,762 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-19 | Vaughan Therese M | director | Award / grant | 1,347 | 23,608 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-19 | Hendrick Gregory | director | Award / grant | 1,347 | 4,591 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-19 | Hansen Bruce Edward | director | Award / grant | 1,347 | 15,868 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | PERRY CHRISTOPHER JOHN | director | Award / grant | 138 | 3,132 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | Hendrick Gregory | director | Award / grant | 138 | 3,244 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | LISS SAMUEL G | director | Award / grant | 158 | 67,751 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | Purtill Sabra R. | director | Award / grant | 138 | 1,582 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-15 | Shavel Lee | director | Withheld for tax | 2,476 | 100,990 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-15 | Mann Elizabeth | director | Withheld for tax | 714 | 20,784 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-15 | Beckles Kathy Card | officer | Award / grant | 576 | 13,536 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-15 | Daffan Nicholas | officer | Withheld for tax | 567 | 59,674 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-15 | Holzer Sunita | officer | Withheld for tax | 408 | 16,158 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-15 | Grover David J. | officer | Withheld for tax | 84 | 13,774 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-15 | Holzer Sunita | officer | Award / grant | 5,782 | 5,782 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-15 | Grover David J. | officer | Award / grant | 252 | 13,858 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-15 | Grover David J. | officer | Award / grant | 1,160 | 1,160 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.
As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date
A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).
| Member | Chamber | Type | Filed | Traded | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alan Armstrong | Senate | purchase | 2026-07-21 | 2026-03-27 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-07-06 | 2026-06-16 | $1–15K |
| Gilbert Cisneros | House | purchase | 2026-07-02 | 2026-06-16 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-06-09 | 2026-05-15 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-06-09 | 2026-05-27 | $1–15K |
| Gilbert Cisneros | House | purchase | 2026-06-08 | 2026-05-15 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-05-11 | 2026-04-24 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-05-11 | 2026-04-13 | $1–15K |
| Gilbert Cisneros | House | sale | 2026-05-08 | 2026-04-14 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-04-07 | 2026-03-23 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-03-09 | 2026-02-05 | $15–50K |
| Gilbert Cisneros | House | purchase | 2026-03-09 | 2026-02-10 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-03-09 | 2026-02-17 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-03-09 | 2026-02-24 | $1–15K |
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.