VRRMVerra Mobility CorporationTechnology · Information Technology Servicesas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $3.54 · now $3.54 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, VRRM has typically landed between $2.98 and $4.01 — a range of −15.7% to +13.4% from the issuance price $3.54.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

2,361 overlapping 1 month windows · 2017-03-24 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($3.54) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where VRRM has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $3.54 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$2.98worst · -15.7%$4.01best · +13.4%
  • now $3.54 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $3.56 (+0.5%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $3.35–$3.76
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $2.98–$4.01
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 2,361 windows spanning 2017-03-24 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2026-04-27−72.6%−72.6%+1.3%
2026-05-01−72.3%−72.3%+0.0%
2026-04-30−71.9%−72.2%+0.4%
3 best
2020-04-21+49.6%+0.0%+49.6%
2020-05-06+48.3%+0.0%+51.4%
2020-04-22+45.8%+0.0%+47.1%

2,361 overlapping windows · 2017-03-24 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~10 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
67%
+3.3%
n=9
Feb
56%
−1.2%
n=9
Mar
33%
−5.6%
n=9
Apr
50%
+2.0%
n=10
May
70%
−0.1%
n=10
Jun
60%
+1.3%
n=10
Jul
70%
+5.3%
n=10
Aug
40%
−4.0%
n=10
Sep
50%
−2.4%
n=10
Oct
22%
−1.0%
n=9
Nov
44%
+1.5%
n=9
Dec
67%
+1.7%
n=9

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$26$4↑ buys↓ sales
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2025-05-21HUERTA MICHAEL PdirectorSale6,000 @ $24.30$146K−24.7% of holding−1.1%−22.5%18,254Form 4 · filed same day
2025-05-13Baldwin JonathanofficerSale5,858 @ $24.04$141K−23.7% of holding+0.6%−19.4%18,814Form 4 · filed same day
2025-05-09Keyser JonathanofficerSale18,719 @ $24.28$455K−94.1% of holding−5.8%−25.3%1,179Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-03-04Baldwin JonathanofficerSale5,293 @ $22.87$121K−22.0% of holding+5.1%−3.7%18,814Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

192 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-08-09Patel Hiten MofficerWithheld for tax1,3475,319Form 4
2026-08-09Patel Hiten MofficerWithheld for tax4255,900Form 4
2026-08-09Patel Hiten MofficerOption exercise1,0066,325Form 4
2026-08-09Patel Hiten MofficerOption exercise1,0062,013Form 4
2026-08-09Patel Hiten MofficerOption exercise3,1846,666Form 4
2026-08-09Patel Hiten MofficerOption exercise3,1840Form 4
2026-08-07Moser StaceyofficerWithheld for tax4,8448,658Form 4
2026-08-07Moser StaceyofficerOption exercise13,50213,502Form 4
2026-06-16Patel Hiten MofficerAward / grant29,88029,880Form 4
2026-06-16Moser StaceyofficerAward / grant24,90024,900Form 4
2026-06-13Moser StaceyofficerAward / grant80,29980,299Form 4
2026-06-01Keyser JonathanofficerAward / grant460,122460,122Form 4
2026-05-29Conti Craig CofficerAward / grant388,026388,026Form 4
2026-05-19Ratnakar RajdirectorAward / grant14,68314,683Form 4
2026-05-19HUERTA MICHAEL PdirectorAward / grant14,68314,683Form 4
2026-05-19RUSSO CYNTHIA AdirectorAward / grant14,68314,683Form 4
2026-05-19DAVIS DOUGLAS LEEdirectorAward / grant14,68314,683Form 4
2026-05-19REXFORD JOHN HdirectorAward / grant14,68314,683Form 4
2026-05-19Byrne Patrick JdirectorAward / grant14,68314,683Form 4
2026-05-18RUSSO CYNTHIA AdirectorOption exercise7,94956,064Form 4
2026-05-18Ratnakar RajdirectorOption exercise7,94916,152Form 4
2026-05-18Ratnakar RajdirectorOption exercise7,9490Form 4
2026-05-18Byrne Patrick JdirectorOption exercise7,94946,362Form 4
2026-05-18Byrne Patrick JdirectorOption exercise7,9490Form 4
2026-05-18DAVIS DOUGLAS LEEdirectorOption exercise7,94956,064Form 4
2026-05-18DAVIS DOUGLAS LEEdirectorOption exercise7,9490Form 4
2026-05-18HUERTA MICHAEL PdirectorOption exercise7,94926,203Form 4
2026-05-18HUERTA MICHAEL PdirectorOption exercise7,9490Form 4
2026-05-18REXFORD JOHN HdirectorOption exercise7,94955,453Form 4
2026-05-18REXFORD JOHN HdirectorOption exercise7,9490Form 4
2026-05-18RUSSO CYNTHIA AdirectorOption exercise7,9490Form 4
2026-05-11Baldwin JonathanofficerWithheld for tax5,05843,746Form 4
2026-05-11Conti Craig CofficerWithheld for tax2,272105,506Form 4
2026-05-11Baldwin JonathanofficerOption exercise10,91748,804Form 4
2026-05-11Conti Craig CofficerOption exercise5,3690Form 4
2026-05-11Conti Craig CofficerOption exercise5,369107,778Form 4
2026-05-11Baldwin JonathanofficerOption exercise10,9170Form 4
2026-03-16ROBERTS DAVID MARTINdirectorWithheld for tax39,520842,569Form 4
2026-03-16Conti Craig CofficerWithheld for tax11,742102,409Form 4
2026-03-16Baldwin JonathanofficerWithheld for tax9,88837,887Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.