VRNSVaronis Systems, Inc.Technology · Software - Infrastructureas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $46.76 · now $46.76 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, VRNS has typically landed between $37.17 and $55.91 — a range of −20.5% to +19.6% from the issuance price $46.76.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

3,135 overlapping 1 month windows · 2014-02-28 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($46.76) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where VRNS has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $46.76 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$37.17worst · -20.5%$55.91best · +19.6%
  • now $46.76 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $47.07 (+0.7%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $43.27–$50.86
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $37.17–$55.91
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 3,135 windows spanning 2014-02-28 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2025-10-23−49.7%−49.7%+1.1%
2025-10-24−49.5%−49.7%+1.1%
2025-10-22−48.7%−48.7%+2.9%
3 best
2014-12-10+50.2%+0.0%+50.2%
2014-12-08+49.3%+0.0%+49.3%
2014-12-11+49.2%+0.0%+50.2%

3,135 overlapping windows · 2014-02-28 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~13 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
67%
+2.3%
n=12
Feb
42%
−0.8%
n=12
Mar
31%
−4.6%
n=13
Apr
62%
+1.8%
n=13
May
54%
+4.9%
n=13
Jun
69%
+6.1%
n=13
Jul
62%
+1.0%
n=13
Aug
85%
+8.4%
n=13
Sep
23%
−4.5%
n=13
Oct
58%
−2.9%
n=12
Nov
58%
+3.1%
n=12
Dec
42%
+5.1%
n=12

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$63$202026-02-09: 2 insider purchases, $669K — Faitelson Yakov, Bass David2026-02-06: 2 insider purchases, $509K — Kess Avrohom J., GAVIN JOHN J JR2025-08-29: 1 insider sale, $89K — Melamed Guy2025-08-28: 1 insider sale, $232K — Melamed Guy2025-08-22: 1 insider sale, $619K — Melamed Guy2025-08-13: 1 insider sale, $2.5M — Melamed Guy2025-08: 6 open-market sales, $6.4M2026-02: 4 open-market purchases, $1.2M↑ buys↓ salesdirector Faitelson Yakov — Purchase on 2026-02-09, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Bass David — Purchase on 2026-02-09, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Kess Avrohom J. — Purchase on 2026-02-06, filed 4 days after the tradedirector GAVIN JOHN J JR — Purchase on 2026-02-06, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Melamed Guy — Sale on 2025-08-29, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Melamed Guy — Sale on 2025-08-28, filed 5 days after the tradeofficer Melamed Guy — Sale on 2025-08-22, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Melamed Guy — Sale on 2025-08-13, filed 2 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-02-09Faitelson YakovdirectorPurchase26,725 @ $22.41$599K+1.2% of holding−3.4%+52.8%2,185,387Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-09Bass DavidofficerPurchase2,980 @ $23.47$70K+0.3% of holding−3.4%+52.8%1,042,924Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-06Kess Avrohom J.directorPurchase17,800 @ $22.29$397K+56.3% of holding+7.7%+74.8%49,403Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-02-06GAVIN JOHN J JRdirectorPurchase5,000 @ $22.54$113K+1.9% of holding+7.7%+74.8%273,666Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-08-29Melamed GuyofficerSale1,500 @ $59.59$89K−0.4% of holding−6.2%−66.2%412,105Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-08-28Melamed GuyofficerSale3,892 @ $59.52$232K−0.9% of holding−2.3%−67.4%413,605Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2025-08-22Melamed GuyofficerSale10,400 @ $59.53$619K−2.4% of holding−4.4%−70.4%417,497Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-08-13Melamed GuyofficerSale42,705 @ $57.72$2.5M−9.1% of holding−5.2%−63.0%427,897Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-08-01Melamed GuyofficerSale51,889 @ $55.10$2.9M−9.9% of holding+0.9%−59.1%470,602Form 4 · filed same day
2025-08-01VAN DEN BOSCH FREDdirectorSale3,000 @ $55.08$165K−2.3% of holding+0.9%−59.1%128,666Form 4 · filed same day
2025-06-04VAN DEN BOSCH FREDdirectorSale6,000 @ $50.00$300K−4.4% of holding−2.2%−52.3%131,666Form 4 · filed same day

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

55 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-05-31Gottlieb DovofficerWithheld for tax9,264265,774Form 4
2026-05-22Melamed GuyofficerWithheld for tax104,440504,662Form 4
2026-04-30COMOLLI KEVIN EdirectorAward / grant7,22446,228Form 4
2026-04-30Segev OferdirectorAward / grant7,22491,247Form 4
2026-04-30Aued CarlosdirectorAward / grant7,22430,247Form 4
2026-04-30VAN DEN BOSCH FREDdirectorAward / grant7,224135,890Form 4
2026-04-30MENDOZA THOMAS FdirectorAward / grant7,22472,425Form 4
2026-04-30Korkus OhaddirectorAward / grant7,224122,984Form 4
2026-04-30Kess Avrohom J.directorAward / grant7,22456,627Form 4
2026-04-30GAVIN JOHN J JRdirectorAward / grant7,224280,890Form 4
2026-04-30Iohan GilidirectorAward / grant7,22434,828Form 4
2026-04-30Prishkolnik RacheldirectorAward / grant7,22432,938Form 4
2026-02-27Faitelson YakovdirectorWithheld for tax369,5761,509,180Form 4
2026-02-27Pomeroy GregofficerWithheld for tax32,581281,313Form 4
2026-02-27Gottlieb DovofficerWithheld for tax20,206275,038Form 4
2026-02-09Faitelson YakovdirectorGift47,00083,869Form 4
2026-02-09Faitelson YakovdirectorGift87,0002,098,387Form 4
2026-02-09Faitelson YakovdirectorGift31,928285,312Form 4
2026-02-09Faitelson YakovdirectorGift31,928285,312Form 4
2026-02-06Bass DavidofficerAward / grant169,0951,039,944Form 4
2026-02-06Gottlieb DovofficerAward / grant66,226294,862Form 4
2026-02-06Faitelson YakovdirectorAward / grant315,6742,158,662Form 4
2026-02-06Melamed GuyofficerAward / grant125,359608,662Form 4
2026-02-06Pomeroy GregofficerAward / grant75,056313,449Form 4
2026-02-02Bass DavidofficerAward / grant63,735870,849Form 4
2026-02-02Gottlieb DovofficerAward / grant12,497228,636Form 4
2026-02-02Melamed GuyofficerAward / grant70,967483,303Form 4
2026-02-02Pomeroy GregofficerAward / grant23,011238,393Form 4
2026-02-02Faitelson YakovdirectorAward / grant162,4601,842,988Form 4
2025-09-11Faitelson YakovdirectorGift54,7351,680,528Form 4
2025-09-11Faitelson YakovdirectorGift31,92836,869Form 4
2025-06-02Gottlieb DovofficerWithheld for tax18,333215,935Form 4
2025-05-08Iohan GilidirectorAward / grant4,17827,604Form 4
2025-05-08Prishkolnik RacheldirectorAward / grant4,17825,714Form 4
2025-05-08Kess Avrohom J.directorAward / grant4,17831,603Form 4
2025-05-08Korkus OhaddirectorAward / grant4,178115,760Form 4
2025-05-08COMOLLI KEVIN EdirectorAward / grant4,17839,004Form 4
2025-05-08Aued CarlosdirectorAward / grant4,17823,023Form 4
2025-05-08Segev OferdirectorAward / grant4,17884,023Form 4
2025-05-08VAN DEN BOSCH FREDdirectorAward / grant4,178137,666Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.