Issued 2026-09-16 at $10.14 · now $10.14 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, VRM has typically landed between $5.78 and $15.03 — a range of −43.0% to +48.2% from the issuance price $10.14.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
1,549 overlapping 1 month windows · 2020-06-09 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($10.14) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where VRM has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $10.14 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $10.14 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $9.21 (-9.1%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $7.71–$10.71
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $5.78–$15.03
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 1,549 windows spanning 2020-06-09 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2024-01-22 | −76.7% | −76.7% | +0.0% |
| 2024-01-19 | −70.7% | −70.7% | +20.3% |
| 2024-01-18 | −69.7% | −69.7% | +21.8% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2025-02-07 | +365.8% | +0.0% | +365.8% |
| 2025-02-10 | +365.0% | +0.0% | +365.8% |
| 2025-02-06 | +350.0% | +0.0% | +350.0% |
1,549 overlapping windows · 2020-06-09 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~7 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
33%
−11.6%
n=6
Feb
33%
+44.8%
n=6
Mar
33%
−11.6%
n=6
Apr
50%
−1.0%
n=6
May
0%
−13.0%
n=6
Jun
33%
+5.8%
n=6
Jul
43%
+9.1%
n=7
Aug
57%
−3.3%
n=7
Sep
29%
−8.5%
n=7
Oct
0%
−15.0%
n=6
Nov
17%
−16.1%
n=6
Dec
33%
−5.6%
n=6
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-13 | Mudrick Capital Management, L.P. | director | Purchase | — | — | ownership Δ n/a | +3.9% | not yet — horizon still open | — | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-13 | Mudrick Capital Management, L.P. | director | Purchase | — | — | ownership Δ n/a | +3.9% | not yet — horizon still open | — | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-13 | Mudrick Capital Management, L.P. | director | Purchase | — | — | ownership Δ n/a | +3.9% | not yet — horizon still open | — | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-13 | Mudrick Capital Management, L.P. | director | Purchase | — | — | ownership Δ n/a | +3.9% | not yet — horizon still open | — | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-13 | Mudrick Capital Management, L.P. | director | Purchase | — | — | ownership Δ n/a | +3.9% | not yet — horizon still open | — | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-13 | Mudrick Capital Management, L.P. | director | Purchase | — | — | ownership Δ n/a | +3.9% | not yet — horizon still open | — | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-13 | Mudrick Capital Management, L.P. | director | Purchase | — | — | ownership Δ n/a | +3.9% | not yet — horizon still open | — | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-13 | Mudrick Capital Management, L.P. | director | Purchase | — | — | ownership Δ n/a | +3.9% | not yet — horizon still open | — | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-13 | Mudrick Capital Management, L.P. | director | Purchase | — | — | ownership Δ n/a | +3.9% | not yet — horizon still open | — | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-13 | Mudrick Capital Management, L.P. | director | Purchase | — | — | ownership Δ n/a | +3.9% | not yet — horizon still open | — | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-13 | Mudrick Capital Management, L.P. | director | Purchase | — | — | ownership Δ n/a | +3.9% | not yet — horizon still open | — | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-13 | Mudrick Capital Management, L.P. | director | Purchase | — | — | ownership Δ n/a | +3.9% | not yet — horizon still open | — | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-13 | Mudrick Capital Management, L.P. | director | Purchase | — | — | ownership Δ n/a | +3.9% | not yet — horizon still open | — | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-13 | Mudrick Capital Management, L.P. | director | Purchase | — | — | ownership Δ n/a | +3.9% | not yet — horizon still open | — | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-13 | Mudrick Capital Management, L.P. | director | Purchase | — | — | ownership Δ n/a | +3.9% | not yet — horizon still open | — | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-13 | Mudrick Capital Management, L.P. | director | Purchase | — | — | ownership Δ n/a | +3.9% | not yet — horizon still open | — | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-13 | Mudrick Capital Management, L.P. | director | Purchase | — | — | ownership Δ n/a | +3.9% | not yet — horizon still open | — | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-13 | Mudrick Capital Management, L.P. | director | Purchase | — | — | ownership Δ n/a | +3.9% | not yet — horizon still open | — | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-13 | Mudrick Capital Management, L.P. | director | Purchase | — | — | ownership Δ n/a | +3.9% | not yet — horizon still open | — | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-13 | Mudrick Capital Management, L.P. | director | Purchase | — | — | ownership Δ n/a | +3.9% | not yet — horizon still open | — | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-13 | Mudrick Capital Management, L.P. | director | Purchase | — | — | ownership Δ n/a | +3.9% | not yet — horizon still open | — | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-13 | Mudrick Capital Management, L.P. | director | Purchase | — | — | ownership Δ n/a | +3.9% | not yet — horizon still open | — | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-13 | Mudrick Capital Management, L.P. | director | Purchase | — | — | ownership Δ n/a | +3.9% | not yet — horizon still open | — | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-13 | Mudrick Capital Management, L.P. | director | Purchase | — | — | ownership Δ n/a | +3.9% | not yet — horizon still open | — | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-13 | Mudrick Capital Management, L.P. | director | Purchase | — | — | ownership Δ n/a | +3.9% | not yet — horizon still open | — | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-13 | Mudrick Capital Management, L.P. | director | Purchase | — | — | ownership Δ n/a | +3.9% | not yet — horizon still open | — | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-13 | Mudrick Capital Management, L.P. | director | Purchase | — | — | ownership Δ n/a | +3.9% | not yet — horizon still open | — | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-13 | Mudrick Capital Management, L.P. | director | Purchase | — | — | ownership Δ n/a | +3.9% | not yet — horizon still open | — | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-13 | Mudrick Capital Management, L.P. | director | Purchase | — | — | ownership Δ n/a | +3.9% | not yet — horizon still open | — | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-13 | Mudrick Capital Management, L.P. | director | Purchase | — | — | ownership Δ n/a | +3.9% | not yet — horizon still open | — | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-13 | Mudrick Capital Management, L.P. | director | Purchase | — | — | ownership Δ n/a | +3.9% | not yet — horizon still open | — | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-13 | Mudrick Capital Management, L.P. | director | Purchase | — | — | ownership Δ n/a | +3.9% | not yet — horizon still open | — | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-15 | Mudrick Capital Management, L.P. | director | Purchase | 15,595 @ $7.22 | $113K | +0.4% of holding | −11.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,982,846 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-15 | Mudrick Capital Management, L.P. | director | Purchase | 15,595 @ $7.22 | $113K | +0.4% of holding | −11.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,982,846 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-15 | MYLOD ROBERT J JR | director | Sale | 13,171 @ $7.22 | $95K | −100.0% of holding | −11.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-15 | MYLOD ROBERT J JR | director | Sale | 2,424 @ $7.22 | $18K | −12.0% of holding | −11.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 17,693 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-15 | Mudrick Capital Management, L.P. | director | Purchase | 15,595 @ $0.01 | $156 | ownership Δ n/a | −11.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 15,595 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-15 | Mudrick Capital Management, L.P. | director | Purchase | 15,595 @ $0.01 | $156 | ownership Δ n/a | −11.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 15,595 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-15 | MYLOD ROBERT J JR | director | Sale | 13,171 @ $0.01 | $132 | −100.0% of holding | −11.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-15 | MYLOD ROBERT J JR | director | Sale | 2,424 @ $0.01 | $24 | −100.0% of holding | −11.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-08 | Corrales Anna-Lisa Christina | officer | Sale | 35 @ $12.20 | $427 | −0.1% of holding | −34.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 31,029 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-20 | Corrales Anna-Lisa Christina | officer | Sale | 18 @ $12.07 | $217 | −0.1% of holding | +33.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 31,064 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-20 | Benzaquen Jacob Shlomo | officer | Sale | 7 @ $12.07 | $84 | −0.1% of holding | +33.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 10,315 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-15 | Benzaquen Jacob Shlomo | officer | Sale | 3 @ $26.07 | $78 | −0.0% of holding | −6.9% | −61.9% | 10,322 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-11 | Mudrick Capital Management, L.P. | director | Purchase | 3,649 @ $28.00 | $102K | +0.1% of holding | −2.5% | −28.4% | 3,967,251 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-06-10 | Mudrick Capital Management, L.P. | director | Purchase | 13 @ $28.00 | $364 | +0.0% of holding | −0.2% | −24.7% | 3,963,602 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-09 | Mudrick Capital Management, L.P. | director | Purchase | 1,790 @ $27.99 | $50K | +0.0% of holding | −0.2% | −35.4% | 3,963,589 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-06-06 | Mudrick Capital Management, L.P. | director | Purchase | 1,781 @ $27.99 | $50K | +0.0% of holding | −3.6% | −43.3% | 3,961,799 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-05 | Mudrick Capital Management, L.P. | director | Purchase | 999 @ $24.48 | $24K | +0.0% of holding | −3.0% | −41.3% | 3,960,018 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-04 | Mudrick Capital Management, L.P. | director | Purchase | 4,788 @ $25.80 | $124K | +0.1% of holding | +3.8% | −37.0% | 3,959,019 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-06-03 | Mudrick Capital Management, L.P. | director | Purchase | 1,000 @ $24.88 | $25K | +0.0% of holding | +9.6% | −38.1% | 3,954,231 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-06-02 | Mudrick Capital Management, L.P. | director | Purchase | 1,000 @ $24.13 | $24K | +0.0% of holding | +12.9% | −35.3% | 3,953,231 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-28 | Corrales Anna-Lisa Christina | officer | Sale | 12 @ $23.65 | $284 | −0.0% of holding | +25.8% | −21.8% | 31,082 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-28 | Benzaquen Jacob Shlomo | officer | Sale | 8 @ $23.65 | $189 | −0.1% of holding | +25.8% | −21.8% | 10,325 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-15 | Zakowicz Agnieszka | officer | Sale | 383 @ $26.88 | $10K | −39.1% of holding | +12.8% | −30.4% | 597 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-15 | Sandison Jonathan | officer | Sale | 90 @ $26.88 | $2K | −0.2% of holding | +12.8% | −30.4% | 41,235 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-15 | Corrales Anna-Lisa Christina | officer | Sale | 40 @ $26.88 | $1K | −0.1% of holding | +12.8% | −30.4% | 31,094 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
99 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-06 | Benzaquen Jacob Shlomo | officer | Award / grant | 7,500 | 7,500 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-06 | Corrales Anna-Lisa Christina | officer | Award / grant | 22,000 | 22,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-06 | Sandison Jonathan | officer | Award / grant | 30,000 | 30,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-06 | Shortt Thomas H | director | Award / grant | 205,000 | 205,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | Shortt Thomas H | director | Award / grant | 65,382 | 357,972 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | Benzaquen Jacob Shlomo | officer | Award / grant | 6,422 | 16,737 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | Sandison Jonathan | officer | Award / grant | 13,271 | 54,506 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | Corrales Anna-Lisa Christina | officer | Award / grant | 10,431 | 41,460 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-11 | Patel Nikul | director | Award / grant | 9,832 | 16,895 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-11 | Mudrick Capital Management, L.P. | director | Award / grant | 9,832 | 19,018 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-11 | Mudrick Capital Management, L.P. | director | Award / grant | 9,832 | 19,018 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-11 | Crow Timothy M | director | Award / grant | 9,832 | 18,080 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-11 | Krakowiak Robert R. | director | Award / grant | 9,832 | 21,071 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-11 | MYLOD ROBERT J JR | director | Award / grant | 9,832 | 20,117 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-29 | Mudrick Capital Management, L.P. | director | Award / grant | — | — | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-29 | Mudrick Capital Management, L.P. | director | Award / grant | — | — | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-29 | Mudrick Capital Management, L.P. | director | Award / grant | — | — | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-29 | Mudrick Capital Management, L.P. | director | Award / grant | — | — | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-29 | Mudrick Capital Management, L.P. | director | Award / grant | — | — | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-29 | MYLOD ROBERT J JR | director | Award / grant | — | — | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-29 | MYLOD ROBERT J JR | director | Award / grant | — | — | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-29 | MYLOD ROBERT J JR | director | Award / grant | — | — | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-29 | MYLOD ROBERT J JR | director | Award / grant | — | — | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-29 | Mudrick Capital Management, L.P. | director | Award / grant | — | — | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-29 | Mudrick Capital Management, L.P. | director | Award / grant | — | — | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-29 | Mudrick Capital Management, L.P. | director | Award / grant | — | — | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-29 | Mudrick Capital Management, L.P. | director | Award / grant | — | — | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-29 | Mudrick Capital Management, L.P. | director | Award / grant | — | — | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-29 | Mudrick Capital Management, L.P. | director | Award / grant | — | — | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-29 | Mudrick Capital Management, L.P. | director | Award / grant | — | — | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-29 | Mudrick Capital Management, L.P. | director | Award / grant | — | — | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-29 | Mudrick Capital Management, L.P. | director | Award / grant | — | — | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-29 | Mudrick Capital Management, L.P. | director | Award / grant | — | — | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-29 | Mudrick Capital Management, L.P. | director | Award / grant | — | — | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-29 | Mudrick Capital Management, L.P. | director | Award / grant | — | — | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-29 | Mudrick Capital Management, L.P. | director | Award / grant | — | — | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-14 | Mudrick Capital Management, L.P. | director | Award / grant | — | — | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-14 | MYLOD ROBERT J JR | director | Award / grant | — | — | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-14 | MYLOD ROBERT J JR | director | Award / grant | — | — | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-14 | MYLOD ROBERT J JR | director | Award / grant | — | — | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.