VRDN · TickerCove

VRDNViridian Therapeutics, Inc.Healthcare · Biotechnologyas of 2026-09-16

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $22.44 · now $22.44 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, VRDN has typically landed between $17.10 and $29.85 — a range of −23.8% to +33.0% from the issuance price $22.44.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

3,055 overlapping 1 month windows · 2014-06-18 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($22.44) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$22.44 · 45% of range

$13.3 low$33.78 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-16 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,408 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

53.9%

90% CI 51.7%–56.1%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

+0.2%

typical move · IQR 24.9%

−23.8%worst (p90)+33.0%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

0 buys · 0 sells · 0 members

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where VRDN has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $22.44 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $22.44 (+0.0%)
typical $22.48 (+0.2%)
middle 50% $19.69–$25.26
90% range $17.1–$29.85

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 3,055 windows spanning 2014-06-18 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2019-07-16	−64.0%	−64.0%	+0.0%
2019-07-17	−63.2%	−63.2%	+3.1%
2020-01-30	−62.7%	−67.4%	+0.0%
3 best
2019-12-30	+328.6%	+0.0%	+328.6%
2019-12-31	+264.6%	+0.0%	+325.0%
2019-12-27	+232.7%	−6.3%	+232.7%

3,055 overlapping windows · 2014-06-18 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~13 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

67%

+26.9%

n=12

Feb

17%

−8.3%

n=12

Mar

25%

−10.1%

n=12

Apr

58%

+0.0%

n=12

May

33%

+0.8%

n=12

Jun

58%

+0.9%

n=12

Jul

54%

+1.2%

n=13

Aug

23%

−5.9%

n=13

Sep

38%

−1.4%

n=13

Oct

25%

−4.1%

n=12

Nov

58%

+15.7%

n=12

Dec

33%

−7.0%

n=12

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing
2026-08-19	Tousignant Jennifer	officer	Sale	10,000 @ $24.50	$245K	−100.0% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	0	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-19	Tousignant Jennifer	officer	Sale	4,212 @ $24.50	$103K	−100.0% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	0	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-11	Fairmount Funds Management LLC	director	Purchase	1,176,470 @ $17.00	$20.0M	+30.1% of holding	−6.4%	not yet — horizon still open	5,090,928	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-12-31	Tousignant Jennifer	officer	Sale	2,272 @ $31.16	$71K	−100.0% of holding	+4.7%	−49.7%	0	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-10-23	Fairmount Funds Management LLC	director	Purchase	454,545 @ $22.00	$10.0M	+13.1% of holding	+39.4%	−45.9%	3,914,458	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

57 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-08-19	Tousignant Jennifer	officer	Option exercise	10,000	10,000	Form 4
2026-08-19	Tousignant Jennifer	officer	Option exercise	10,000	114,072	Form 4
2026-08-14	Tripuraneni Radhika	director	Option exercise	40,000	40,000	Form 4
2026-08-14	Tripuraneni Radhika	director	Option exercise	40,000	0	Form 4
2026-07-01	Morris Arlene	director	Award / grant	32,341	32,341	Form 4
2026-07-01	Ajer Jeffrey Robert	director	Award / grant	32,341	32,341	Form 4
2026-07-01	CAIN CHRISTOPHER W.	director	Award / grant	32,341	32,341	Form 4
2026-07-01	Gheuens Sarah	director	Award / grant	32,341	32,341	Form 4
2026-07-01	Kiselak Tomas	director	Award / grant	32,341	32,341	Form 4
2026-07-01	Moses Jennifer K.	director	Award / grant	32,341	32,341	Form 4
2026-03-03	Mahoney Stephen F.	director	Withheld for tax	7,627	33,130	Form 4
2026-03-03	Beetham Thomas W.	officer	Withheld for tax	3,138	13,271	Form 4
2026-03-03	Harmon Seth	officer	Withheld for tax	2,091	7,790	Form 4
2026-03-03	Tousignant Jennifer	officer	Withheld for tax	1,724	3,445	Form 4
2026-03-03	Harmon Seth	officer	Option exercise	6,267	18,801	Form 4
2026-03-03	Mahoney Stephen F.	director	Option exercise	18,357	55,071	Form 4
2026-03-03	Tousignant Jennifer	officer	Option exercise	5,169	15,510	Form 4
2026-03-03	Beetham Thomas W.	officer	Option exercise	9,409	28,227	Form 4
2026-03-03	Harmon Seth	officer	Option exercise	6,267	9,881	Form 4
2026-03-03	Beetham Thomas W.	officer	Option exercise	9,409	16,409	Form 4
2026-03-03	Harmon Seth	officer	Option exercise	6,267	9,881	Form 4
2026-03-03	Mahoney Stephen F.	director	Option exercise	18,357	40,757	Form 4
2026-03-03	Beetham Thomas W.	officer	Option exercise	9,409	16,409	Form 4
2026-03-03	Tousignant Jennifer	officer	Option exercise	5,169	5,169	Form 4
2026-03-03	Mahoney Stephen F.	director	Option exercise	18,357	40,757	Form 4
2026-03-03	Tousignant Jennifer	officer	Option exercise	5,169	5,169	Form 4
2026-03-02	Harmon Seth	officer	Award / grant	20,550	20,550	Form 4
2026-03-02	Tripuraneni Radhika	director	Award / grant	19,150	19,150	Form 4
2026-03-02	Tripuraneni Radhika	director	Award / grant	95,800	95,800	Form 4
2026-03-02	Tousignant Jennifer	officer	Award / grant	119,300	119,300	Form 4
2026-03-02	Tousignant Jennifer	officer	Award / grant	23,850	23,850	Form 4
2026-03-02	Beetham Thomas W.	officer	Award / grant	35,300	35,300	Form 4
2026-03-02	Beetham Thomas W.	officer	Award / grant	176,550	176,550	Form 4
2026-03-02	Mahoney Stephen F.	director	Award / grant	111,900	111,900	Form 4
2026-03-02	Mahoney Stephen F.	director	Award / grant	559,600	559,600	Form 4
2026-03-02	Harmon Seth	officer	Award / grant	102,850	102,850	Form 4
2025-07-01	Kiselak Tomas	director	Award / grant	21,000	21,000	Form 4
2025-07-01	Gheuens Sarah	director	Award / grant	21,000	21,000	Form 4
2025-07-01	Ajer Jeffrey Robert	director	Award / grant	21,000	21,000	Form 4
2025-07-01	CAIN CHRISTOPHER W.	director	Award / grant	21,000	21,000	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Resolves in i

28d remaining

2026-09-173% elapsed2026-10-15

Logged immutably 2026-09-17; scored automatically on 2026-10-15 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Congressional disclosures

Seasonality · by month i