Issued 2026-08-13 at $5.09 · now $4.86 (2026-08-13, −4.5% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-08-13 close, VRCA has typically landed between $3.32 and $7.58 — a range of −34.8% to +48.9% from the issuance price $5.09.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
2,028 overlapping 1 month windows · 2018-06-15 – 2026-07-15 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.8% (90% CI 51.6–56.0%, ≈1,400 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-08-13 issuance close ($5.09) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-09-11, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where VRCA has typically landed a month from the 2026-08-13 close of $5.09 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $4.86 (-4.5%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $4.79 (-5.8%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $4.11–$5.48
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $3.32–$7.58
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2022-04-29 | −72.5% | −72.5% | +0.5% |
| 2022-04-26 | −71.3% | −71.3% | +0.0% |
| 2022-04-28 | −70.9% | −70.9% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2025-11-04 | +156.7% | +0.0% | +177.4% |
| 2025-11-05 | +155.4% | +0.0% | +163.8% |
| 2025-10-29 | +152.1% | −9.1% | +152.1% |
2,028 overlapping windows · 2018-06-15 – 2026-08-13 · not cherry-picked
Pending catalysts
- June 2027 — Trial primary completion: Phase 3 primary completion: Cantharidin Application in Patients With Common Warts (Verruca Vulgaris) (COVE-2) (source, as of 2026-08-14)
- 2028-04-30 — Trial primary completion: Phase 3 primary completion: Long-Term Follow-up Study of Cantharidin (YCANTH [VP-102/TO-208]) in Patients With Common Warts (Verruca Vulgaris) (source, as of 2026-08-14)
Public, scheduled events — dated attention, not a prediction of the outcome. See the FDA catalysts page for the historical base rate.
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~9 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Company insiders iOpen-market share purchases and sales by the company's own officers and directors, by filing date.
Last 90 days · as of 2026-08-13 · point-in-time by filing date
No insider transactions on record in the last 90 days.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. Full terms.