Issued 2026-09-25 at $4.37 · now $4.37 (2026-09-25, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-25 close, VRCA has typically landed between $2.85 and $6.51 — a range of −34.8% to +48.9% from the issuance price $4.37.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
2,058 overlapping 1 month windows · 2018-06-15 – 2026-08-26 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Base rate up 53.7% (90% CI 51.5–55.9%, ≈1,391 obs). Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-25 issuance close ($4.37) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-26, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where VRCA has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-25 close of $4.37 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $4.37 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $4.1 (-6.2%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $3.53–$4.67
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $2.85–$6.51
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 2,058 windows spanning 2018-06-15 to 2026-09-25. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2022-04-29 | −72.5% | −72.5% | +0.5% |
| 2022-04-26 | −71.3% | −71.3% | +0.0% |
| 2022-04-28 | −70.9% | −70.9% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2025-11-04 | +156.7% | +0.0% | +177.4% |
| 2025-11-05 | +155.4% | +0.0% | +163.8% |
| 2025-10-29 | +152.1% | −9.1% | +152.1% |
2,058 overlapping windows · 2018-06-15 – 2026-09-25 · not cherry-picked
Pending catalysts
- June 2027 — Trial primary completion: Phase 3 primary completion: Cantharidin Application in Patients With Common Warts (Verruca Vulgaris) (COVE-2) (source, as of 2026-08-14)
- 2028-04-30 — Trial primary completion: Phase 3 primary completion: Long-Term Follow-up Study of Cantharidin (YCANTH [VP-102/TO-208]) in Patients With Common Warts (Verruca Vulgaris) (source, as of 2026-08-14)
Public, scheduled events — dated attention, not a prediction of the outcome. See the FDA catalysts page for the historical base rate.
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~9 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
38%
+6.5%
n=8
Feb
50%
+4.3%
n=8
Mar
25%
−5.5%
n=8
Apr
50%
+1.1%
n=8
May
25%
−13.5%
n=8
Jun
63%
+7.4%
n=8
Jul
44%
−0.6%
n=9
Aug
56%
−3.4%
n=9
Sep
22%
−9.4%
n=9
Oct
13%
−8.8%
n=8
Nov
50%
+22.8%
n=8
Dec
38%
+2.1%
n=8
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-18 | Kirby John J. | officer | Purchase | 5,000 @ $4.93 | $25K | +26.4% of holding | +0.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 23,962 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-18 | Rosenberg Noah L. | officer | Purchase | 2,030 @ $4.92 | $10K | +31.0% of holding | +0.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 8,587 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-17 | Zawitz David | officer | Purchase | 6,000 @ $4.98 | $30K | +28.6% of holding | −4.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 27,000 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-17 | Rieger Jayson | director | Purchase | 5,000 @ $4.91 | $25K | +2.5% of holding | −4.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 207,593 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-17 | Rosenberg Noah L. | officer | Purchase | 4,200 @ $4.91 | $21K | +178.2% of holding | −4.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 6,557 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-14 | Rieger Jayson | director | Purchase | 20,000 @ $5.06 | $101K | +11.0% of holding | −5.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 202,593 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-25 | Manning Paul B | director | Purchase | 2,750,762 @ $4.24 | $11.7M | +460.3% of holding | +56.8% | −0.2% | 3,348,372 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-11-25 | Manning Paul B | director | Purchase | 1,375,380 @ $4.24 | $5.8M | +53.3% of holding | +56.8% | −0.2% | 3,958,189 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-11-25 | Rieger Jayson | director | Purchase | 94,311 @ $4.24 | $400K | +106.8% of holding | +56.8% | −0.2% | 182,593 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-11-25 | Zawitz David | officer | Purchase | 10,000 @ $4.24 | $42K | +90.9% of holding | +56.8% | −0.2% | 21,000 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-11-25 | Kirby John J. | officer | Purchase | 3,536 @ $4.24 | $15K | +65.2% of holding | +56.8% | −0.2% | 8,962 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-11-25 | Rosenberg Noah L. | officer | Purchase | 2,357 @ $4.24 | $10K | ownership Δ n/a | +56.8% | −0.2% | 2,357 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-11-25 | Kirby John J. | officer | Purchase | 884 | — | ownership Δ n/a | +56.8% | −0.2% | 884 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-11-25 | Manning Paul B | director | Purchase | 343,845 | — | ownership Δ n/a | +56.8% | −0.2% | 343,845 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-11-25 | Manning Paul B | director | Purchase | 687,690 | — | ownership Δ n/a | +56.8% | −0.2% | 687,690 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-11-25 | Kirby John J. | officer | Purchase | 884 | — | ownership Δ n/a | +56.8% | −0.2% | 884 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-11-25 | Manning Paul B | director | Purchase | 343,845 | — | ownership Δ n/a | +56.8% | −0.2% | 343,845 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-11-25 | Manning Paul B | director | Purchase | 687,690 | — | ownership Δ n/a | +56.8% | −0.2% | 687,690 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-11-25 | Rosenberg Noah L. | officer | Purchase | 589 | — | ownership Δ n/a | +56.8% | −0.2% | 589 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-11-25 | Rieger Jayson | director | Purchase | 23,577 | — | ownership Δ n/a | +56.8% | −0.2% | 23,577 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-11-25 | Zawitz David | officer | Purchase | 2,500 | — | ownership Δ n/a | +56.8% | −0.2% | 2,500 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-11-25 | Rosenberg Noah L. | officer | Purchase | 589 | — | ownership Δ n/a | +56.8% | −0.2% | 589 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-11-25 | Rieger Jayson | director | Purchase | 23,577 | — | ownership Δ n/a | +56.8% | −0.2% | 23,577 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-11-25 | Zawitz David | officer | Purchase | 2,500 | — | ownership Δ n/a | +56.8% | −0.2% | 2,500 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-03-17 | Hayes Christopher G. | officer | Sale | 4,315 @ $0.65 | $3K | −2.4% of holding | −19.3% | −49.3% | 176,458 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-11-22 | Manning Paul B | director | Purchase | 2,247,191 | — | ownership Δ n/a | −32.4% | −44.9% | 2,247,191 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2024-11-22 | Stalfort John A III | director | Purchase | 1,123,595 | — | +160.5% of holding | −32.4% | −44.9% | 1,823,800 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2024-11-22 | Stalfort John A III | director | Purchase | 561,797 | — | ownership Δ n/a | −32.4% | −44.9% | 561,797 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2024-11-22 | Stalfort John A III | director | Purchase | 561,797 | — | ownership Δ n/a | −32.4% | −44.9% | 561,797 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2024-11-22 | Manning Paul B | director | Purchase | 18,426,966 | — | +234.7% of holding | −32.4% | −44.9% | 26,278,094 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2024-11-22 | Manning Paul B | director | Purchase | 4,494,382 | — | +303.3% of holding | −32.4% | −44.9% | 5,976,101 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2024-11-22 | Manning Paul B | director | Purchase | 9,213,483 | — | ownership Δ n/a | −32.4% | −44.9% | 9,213,483 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2024-11-22 | Manning Paul B | director | Purchase | 9,213,483 | — | ownership Δ n/a | −32.4% | −44.9% | 9,213,483 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2024-11-22 | Manning Paul B | director | Purchase | 2,247,191 | — | ownership Δ n/a | −32.4% | −44.9% | 2,247,191 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2024-11-22 | Manning Paul B | director | Purchase | 2,247,191 | — | ownership Δ n/a | −32.4% | −44.9% | 2,247,191 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2024-11-22 | Rieger Jayson | director | Purchase | 280,898 | — | +50.9% of holding | −32.4% | −44.9% | 832,826 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2024-11-22 | Rieger Jayson | director | Purchase | 140,449 | — | ownership Δ n/a | −32.4% | −44.9% | 140,449 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2024-11-22 | Rieger Jayson | director | Purchase | 140,449 | — | ownership Δ n/a | −32.4% | −44.9% | 140,449 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2024-11-22 | Stalfort John A III | director | Purchase | 561,797 | — | ownership Δ n/a | −32.4% | −44.9% | 561,797 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2024-11-22 | Stalfort John A III | director | Purchase | 561,797 | — | ownership Δ n/a | −32.4% | −44.9% | 561,797 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2024-11-22 | Rieger Jayson | director | Purchase | 280,898 | — | +50.9% of holding | −32.4% | −44.9% | 832,826 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2024-11-22 | Rieger Jayson | director | Purchase | 140,449 | — | ownership Δ n/a | −32.4% | −44.9% | 140,449 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2024-11-22 | Rieger Jayson | director | Purchase | 140,449 | — | ownership Δ n/a | −32.4% | −44.9% | 140,449 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2024-11-22 | Manning Paul B | director | Purchase | 18,426,966 | — | +234.7% of holding | −32.4% | −44.9% | 26,278,094 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2024-11-22 | Manning Paul B | director | Purchase | 4,494,382 | — | +303.3% of holding | −32.4% | −44.9% | 5,976,101 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2024-11-22 | Manning Paul B | director | Purchase | 9,213,483 | — | ownership Δ n/a | −32.4% | −44.9% | 9,213,483 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2024-11-22 | Manning Paul B | director | Purchase | 9,213,483 | — | ownership Δ n/a | −32.4% | −44.9% | 9,213,483 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2024-11-22 | Manning Paul B | director | Purchase | 2,247,191 | — | ownership Δ n/a | −32.4% | −44.9% | 2,247,191 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2024-11-22 | Stalfort John A III | director | Purchase | 1,123,595 | — | +160.5% of holding | −32.4% | −44.9% | 1,823,800 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2024-08-27 | Hayes Christopher G. | officer | Sale | 9,530 @ $2.46 | $23K | −8.3% of holding | −33.9% | −80.1% | 105,773 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-08-27 | White Ted | director | Sale | 9,021 @ $2.46 | $22K | −4.0% of holding | −33.9% | −80.1% | 215,967 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-08-27 | Bonaccorso Joe | officer | Sale | 8,993 @ $2.46 | $22K | −11.0% of holding | −33.9% | −80.1% | 73,114 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-08-27 | Kohler Terry | officer | Sale | 7,899 @ $2.46 | $19K | −15.0% of holding | −33.9% | −80.1% | 44,697 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-08-27 | Goldenberg Gary | officer | Sale | 3,601 @ $2.46 | $9K | −3.7% of holding | −33.9% | −80.1% | 94,261 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-08-26 | Hayes Christopher G. | officer | Sale | 26,183 @ $2.66 | $70K | −18.5% of holding | −37.4% | −82.0% | 115,303 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-08-26 | White Ted | director | Sale | 24,979 @ $2.66 | $66K | −10.0% of holding | −37.4% | −82.0% | 224,988 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-08-26 | Bonaccorso Joe | officer | Sale | 24,709 @ $2.66 | $66K | −23.1% of holding | −37.4% | −82.0% | 82,107 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-08-26 | Kohler Terry | officer | Sale | 21,820 @ $2.66 | $58K | −29.3% of holding | −37.4% | −82.0% | 52,596 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-08-26 | Goldenberg Gary | officer | Sale | 9,888 @ $2.66 | $26K | −9.2% of holding | −37.4% | −82.0% | 97,862 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-07-23 | White Ted | director | Sale | 154 @ $6.98 | $1K | −0.1% of holding | −62.4% | −101.1% | 249,967 | Form 4 · filed same day |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
40 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-05 | Corcoran Gavin | director | Award / grant | 16,000 | 16,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-05 | Nguyen Diem | director | Award / grant | 16,000 | 16,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-05 | PRYGOCKI MARK A SR | director | Award / grant | 16,000 | 16,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-05 | Rieger Jayson | director | Award / grant | 512,269 | 512,269 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-05 | Rosenberg Noah L. | officer | Award / grant | 233,840 | 233,840 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-05 | Zawitz David | officer | Award / grant | 171,340 | 171,340 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-05 | Eichenfield Lawrence | director | Award / grant | 16,000 | 16,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-23 | Kirby John J. | officer | Award / grant | 10,000 | 18,962 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-05 | Corcoran Gavin | director | Award / grant | 20,000 | 20,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-05 | PRYGOCKI MARK A SR | director | Award / grant | 20,000 | 20,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-05 | Eichenfield Lawrence | director | Award / grant | 20,000 | 20,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-05 | Nguyen Diem | director | Award / grant | 20,000 | 20,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-31 | Corcoran Gavin | director | Award / grant | 17,502 | 17,502 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-24 | Rosenberg Noah L. | officer | Award / grant | 325,000 | 325,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-14 | Hayes Christopher G. | officer | Award / grant | 250,000 | 250,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-14 | Rieger Jayson | director | Award / grant | 850,000 | 850,000 | Form 4 |
| 2024-12-09 | Zawitz David | officer | Award / grant | 950,000 | 950,000 | Form 4 |
| 2024-11-26 | Rieger Jayson | director | Gift | 50,000 | 882,826 | Form 4 |
| 2024-11-26 | Manning Paul B | director | Gift | 450,000 | 25,828,094 | Form 4 |
| 2024-11-26 | Stalfort John A III | director | Gift | 50,000 | 1,873,800 | Form 4 |
| 2024-11-06 | Rieger Jayson | director | Award / grant | 2,000,000 | 2,000,000 | Form 4 |
| 2024-11-06 | Kirby John J. | officer | Award / grant | 54,267 | 54,267 | Form 4 |
| 2024-10-09 | Hayes Christopher G. | officer | Award / grant | 50,000 | 50,000 | Form 4 |
| 2024-09-19 | Manning Paul B | director | Gift | 891,870 | 891,870 | Form 4 |
| 2024-09-19 | Manning Paul B | director | Gift | 2,675,611 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2024-09-19 | Manning Paul B | director | Gift | 891,870 | 891,870 | Form 4 |
| 2024-06-06 | Nguyen Diem | director | Award / grant | 20,000 | 20,000 | Form 4 |
| 2024-06-06 | Ballaron Craig | director | Award / grant | 20,000 | 20,000 | Form 4 |
| 2024-06-06 | Eichenfield Lawrence | director | Award / grant | 20,000 | 20,000 | Form 4 |
| 2024-06-06 | PRYGOCKI MARK A SR | director | Award / grant | 20,000 | 20,000 | Form 4 |
| 2024-03-15 | Goldenberg Gary | officer | Award / grant | 80,000 | 80,000 | Form 4 |
| 2024-03-15 | Hayes Christopher G. | officer | Award / grant | 40,000 | 163,226 | Form 4 |
| 2024-03-15 | Hayes Christopher G. | officer | Award / grant | 80,000 | 80,000 | Form 4 |
| 2024-03-15 | Kohler Terry | officer | Award / grant | 40,000 | 74,416 | Form 4 |
| 2024-03-15 | White Ted | director | Award / grant | 112,500 | 282,590 | Form 4 |
| 2024-03-15 | White Ted | director | Award / grant | 225,000 | 225,000 | Form 4 |
| 2024-03-15 | Bonaccorso Joe | officer | Award / grant | 40,000 | 132,392 | Form 4 |
| 2024-03-15 | Bonaccorso Joe | officer | Award / grant | 80,000 | 80,000 | Form 4 |
| 2024-03-15 | Kohler Terry | officer | Award / grant | 80,000 | 80,000 | Form 4 |
| 2024-03-15 | Goldenberg Gary | officer | Award / grant | 40,000 | 126,257 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.