VRA · TickerCove

VRAVera Bradley, Inc.Consumer Cyclical · Apparel - Footwear & Accessoriesas of 2026-09-16

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $4.02 · now $4.02 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, VRA has typically landed between $3.05 and $5.03 — a range of −24.2% to +25.0% from the issuance price $4.02.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

3,978 overlapping 1 month windows · 2010-10-21 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($4.02) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$4.02 · 90% of range

$1.8 low$4.26 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-16 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,408 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

53.9%

90% CI 51.7%–56.1%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

−0.5%

typical move · IQR 19.4%

−24.2%worst (p90)+25.0%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

0 buys · 0 sells · 0 members

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where VRA has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $4.02 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $4.02 (+0.0%)
typical $4 (-0.5%)
middle 50% $3.61–$4.39
90% range $3.05–$5.03

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 3,978 windows spanning 2010-10-21 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2020-02-18	−62.7%	−62.7%	+0.0%
2020-03-04	−61.0%	−61.0%	+0.0%
2020-02-20	−60.9%	−62.4%	+0.0%
3 best
2020-08-14	+78.0%	−9.4%	+78.0%
2020-08-06	+77.8%	−0.7%	+77.8%
2020-08-13	+76.1%	−6.2%	+76.1%

3,978 overlapping windows · 2010-10-21 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~16 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

38%

−0.6%

n=16

Feb

56%

+0.9%

n=16

Mar

56%

−1.0%

n=16

Apr

38%

−0.0%

n=16

May

50%

−1.9%

n=16

Jun

44%

−3.1%

n=16

Jul

38%

−1.6%

n=16

Aug

44%

−1.0%

n=16

Sep

56%

+0.6%

n=16

Oct

67%

+4.4%

n=15

Nov

69%

+7.0%

n=16

Dec

38%

−2.9%

n=16

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing
2026-06-12	Bickley Ian	director	Purchase	28,901 @ $3.87	$112K	+27.1% of holding	+3.8%	not yet — horizon still open	135,623	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-06-12	Meslow Andrew	director	Purchase	24,926 @ $3.73	$93K	+4.0% of holding	+3.8%	not yet — horizon still open	650,000	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-12-15	Meslow Andrew	director	Purchase	50,000 @ $1.93	$96K	+9.1% of holding	+53.2%	+96.5%	600,000	Form 4 · filed same day
2025-12-12	Meslow Andrew	director	Purchase	250,000 @ $1.98	$494K	+83.3% of holding	+48.2%	+73.4%	550,000	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-12-12	Bickley Ian	director	Purchase	53,000 @ $1.94	$103K	+6.7% of holding	+48.2%	+73.4%	841,629	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-06-12	Meslow Andrew	director	Purchase	253,094 @ $1.88	$475K	+539.6% of holding	+6.8%	−18.5%	300,000	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-06-12	Bickley Ian	director	Purchase	53,722 @ $1.86	$100K	+134.6% of holding	+6.8%	−18.5%	93,628	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

77 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-07-03	Bickley Ian	director	Withheld for tax	30,273	1,058,337	Form 4
2026-06-24	Dely Mark C	officer	Withheld for tax	13,709	343,362	Form 4
2026-06-12	Layding Martin	officer	Withheld for tax	29,376	459,570	Form 4
2026-06-12	Layding Martin	officer	Withheld for tax	13,989	488,946	Form 4
2026-06-08	Dely Mark C	officer	Withheld for tax	2,911	357,071	Form 4
2026-06-08	Dely Mark C	officer	Withheld for tax	1,008	350,872	Form 4
2026-06-08	Dely Mark C	officer	Award / grant	9,110	359,982	Form 4
2026-04-05	Dely Mark C	officer	Withheld for tax	4,174	351,880	Form 4
2026-04-04	Bickley Ian	director	Withheld for tax	15,465	1,195,332	Form 4
2026-04-04	Dely Mark C	officer	Withheld for tax	9,845	356,054	Form 4
2026-04-03	Paraie Melinda	officer	Award / grant	73,746	342,977	Form 4
2026-04-03	Hall Robert J	director	Award / grant	25,074	210,463	Form 4
2026-04-03	CASHMAN KRISTINA K	director	Award / grant	25,074	111,537	Form 4
2026-04-03	Brockman Ivan	director	Award / grant	25,074	25,074	Form 4
2026-04-03	Meslow Andrew	director	Award / grant	25,074	625,074	Form 4
2026-04-03	Layding Martin	officer	Award / grant	88,496	502,935	Form 4
2026-04-03	Tharp Carrie	director	Award / grant	25,074	111,537	Form 4
2026-04-03	Rodriguez Jessica	director	Award / grant	25,074	77,667	Form 4
2026-04-03	Bickley Ian	director	Award / grant	221,239	1,210,797	Form 4
2026-03-31	Dely Mark C	officer	Withheld for tax	9,223	365,899	Form 4
2026-03-31	Dely Mark C	officer	Withheld for tax	3,483	353,010	Form 4
2026-03-31	Dely Mark C	officer	Award / grant	22,112	375,122	Form 4
2026-03-12	Bickley Ian	director	Award / grant	147,929	989,558	Form 4
2025-12-12	Bickley Ian	director	Award / grant	461,538	788,629	Form 4
2025-12-12	Paraie Melinda	officer	Award / grant	269,231	269,231	Form 4
2025-12-09	Dely Mark C	officer	Withheld for tax	7,453	356,493	Form 4
2025-07-03	Bickley Ian	director	Award / grant	233,463	327,091	Form 4
2025-06-24	Dely Mark C	officer	Award / grant	128,755	363,946	Form 4
2025-06-18	Ray Michael C.	other	Award / grant	23,674	2,369,380	Form 4
2025-06-18	Hall Robert J	director	Award / grant	23,674	2,369,380	Form 4
2025-06-18	Hall Joan B.	other	Award / grant	23,674	2,369,380	Form 4
2025-06-18	Barbara B. Baekgaard 2009 Grantor Retained Annuity Trust	other	Award / grant	23,674	2,369,380	Form 4
2025-06-18	Byrne Thomas Farrell II	other	Award / grant	23,674	2,369,380	Form 4
2025-06-18	Ray Anne Marie	other	Award / grant	23,674	2,369,380	Form 4
2025-06-18	Byrne James Bradley	other	Award / grant	23,674	2,369,380	Form 4
2025-06-17	Byrne Thomas Farrell II	other	Award / grant	30,993	2,345,706	Form 4
2025-06-17	Ray Michael C.	other	Award / grant	30,993	2,345,706	Form 4
2025-06-17	Hall Joan B.	other	Award / grant	30,993	2,345,706	Form 4
2025-06-17	Barbara B. Baekgaard 2009 Grantor Retained Annuity Trust	other	Award / grant	30,993	2,345,706	Form 4
2025-06-17	Ray Anne Marie	other	Award / grant	30,993	2,345,706	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Resolves in i

28d remaining

2026-09-173% elapsed2026-10-15

Logged immutably 2026-09-17; scored automatically on 2026-10-15 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Congressional disclosures

Seasonality · by month i