Issued 2026-09-16 at $61.04 · now $62.06 (2026-09-17, +1.7% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, VPG has typically landed between $52.09 and $74.98 — a range of −14.7% to +22.8% from the issuance price $61.04.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
4,062 overlapping 1 month windows · 2010-06-23 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($61.04) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where VPG has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $61.04 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $62.06 (+1.7%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $60.72 (-0.5%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $56.48–$64.95
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $52.09–$74.98
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2020-02-18 | −46.8% | −46.8% | +0.0% |
| 2020-02-13 | −45.1% | −45.1% | +0.0% |
| 2026-07-21 | −43.8% | −43.8% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2026-04-29 | +122.7% | +0.0% | +123.8% |
| 2026-05-01 | +120.7% | −0.3% | +120.7% |
| 2026-04-28 | +118.9% | −1.6% | +120.1% |
4,063 overlapping windows · 2010-06-23 – 2026-09-17 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~17 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-08-07 | Gulati Sejal Shah | director | Sale | 2,932 @ $27.43 | $80K | −30.4% of holding | +7.5% | +96.0% | 6,712 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-02-25 | Gulati Sejal Shah | director | Sale | 814 @ $24.61 | $20K | −11.0% of holding | +0.3% | +7.4% | 6,602 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
28 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-19 | Gulati Sejal Shah | director | Award / grant | 820 | 7,532 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-19 | Reibstein Saul | director | Award / grant | 820 | 27,632 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-19 | LORBER EREZ | director | Award / grant | 820 | 6,127 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-19 | Swersky Sofer Nava | director | Award / grant | 820 | 5,450 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-19 | Altman Yaacov | director | Award / grant | 820 | 3,862 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-26 | Tal Amir | officer | Award / grant | 5,019 | 23,708 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-26 | CLANCY WILLIAM M | director | Award / grant | 5,517 | 55,763 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-26 | Ouzan Rafi | officer | Award / grant | 4,510 | 16,665 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-26 | SHOSHANI ZIV | director | Award / grant | 23,545 | 252,301 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-26 | Alcobi Yair | officer | Award / grant | 5,380 | 5,380 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-01 | SHOSHANI ZIV | director | Withheld for tax | 8,189 | 228,756 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-01 | CLANCY WILLIAM M | director | Withheld for tax | 1,643 | 50,246 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-21 | Swersky Sofer Nava | director | Award / grant | 3,042 | 4,630 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-21 | Altman Yaacov | director | Award / grant | 3,042 | 3,042 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-21 | Reibstein Saul | director | Award / grant | 3,042 | 26,812 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-21 | TALBERT TIMOTHY | director | Award / grant | 3,042 | 28,383 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-21 | Gulati Sejal Shah | director | Award / grant | 3,042 | 9,644 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-21 | LORBER EREZ | director | Award / grant | 3,042 | 5,307 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-24 | CLANCY WILLIAM M | director | Award / grant | 6,723 | 51,889 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-24 | Ouzan Rafi | officer | Award / grant | 1,823 | 12,155 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-24 | SHOSHANI ZIV | director | Award / grant | 27,792 | 236,945 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-24 | Sherman Oded | officer | Award / grant | 1,677 | 4,484 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-24 | Tal Amir | officer | Award / grant | 5,350 | 18,689 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-24 | Hercowitz Amos | officer | Award / grant | 1,442 | 1,442 | Form 4 |
| 2025-01-01 | SHOSHANI ZIV | director | Withheld for tax | 9,273 | 209,153 | Form 4 |
| 2025-01-01 | CLANCY WILLIAM M | director | Withheld for tax | 1,442 | 45,166 | Form 4 |
| 2024-12-04 | Swersky Sofer Nava | director | Award / grant | 1,588 | 1,588 | Form 4 |
| 2024-11-19 | CLARKE JANET M | director | Gift | 150 | 18,450 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.