Issued 2026-09-16 at $21.95 · now $21.95 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, VOR has typically landed between $14.20 and $31.97 — a range of −35.3% to +45.7% from the issuance price $21.95.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
1,385 overlapping 1 month windows · 2021-02-05 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($21.95) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where VOR has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $21.95 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $21.95 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $20.91 (-4.7%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $17.7–$24.13
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $14.2–$31.97
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 1,385 windows spanning 2021-02-05 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2025-04-23 | −76.7% | −80.0% | +0.0% |
| 2025-04-24 | −76.2% | −79.2% | +0.0% |
| 2025-04-11 | −75.6% | −78.4% | +8.4% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2025-06-13 | +1114.3% | +0.0% | +1367.0% |
| 2025-06-12 | +1049.8% | −12.1% | +1189.9% |
| 2025-06-02 | +1038.6% | −22.4% | +1038.6% |
1,385 overlapping windows · 2021-02-05 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~6 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
40%
−4.0%
n=5
Feb
60%
+2.0%
n=5
Mar
33%
−9.3%
n=6
Apr
0%
−18.3%
n=6
May
33%
−22.3%
n=6
Jun
50%
+113.2%
n=6
Jul
33%
−1.1%
n=6
Aug
50%
+1.2%
n=6
Sep
33%
−4.9%
n=6
Oct
60%
−4.6%
n=5
Nov
20%
−19.3%
n=5
Dec
100%
+31.5%
n=5
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-16 | RA CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.P. | director | Sale | 213 @ $19.75 | $4K | −0.0% of holding | +29.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 4,501,882 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-22 | RA CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.P. | director | Sale | 165,150 @ $15.77 | $2.6M | −6.4% of holding | −6.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,402,095 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-20 | RA CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.P. | director | Sale | 171,963 @ $15.77 | $2.7M | −6.3% of holding | −13.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,567,245 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-17 | RA CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.P. | director | Sale | 458,411 @ $16.28 | $7.5M | −14.3% of holding | −18.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,739,208 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-15 | RA CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.P. | director | Sale | 53,644 @ $16.01 | $859K | −1.6% of holding | −10.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,197,619 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-04-14 | RA CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.P. | director | Sale | 153,735 @ $15.97 | $2.5M | −4.5% of holding | −6.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,251,263 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-13 | RA CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.P. | director | Sale | 530,610 @ $16.15 | $8.6M | −13.5% of holding | −4.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,404,998 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-10 | RA CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.P. | director | Sale | 828 @ $15.75 | $13K | −0.0% of holding | +2.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,935,608 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-04-09 | RA CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.P. | director | Sale | 135,201 @ $16.59 | $2.2M | −3.3% of holding | +0.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,936,436 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-08 | RA CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.P. | director | Sale | 353,242 @ $16.32 | $5.8M | −7.8% of holding | −6.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 4,202,499 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-08 | RA CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.P. | director | Sale | 130,862 @ $16.91 | $2.2M | −3.1% of holding | −6.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 4,071,637 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-06 | RA CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.P. | director | Sale | 537,754 @ $16.51 | $8.9M | −10.5% of holding | −14.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 4,607,244 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-04-06 | RA CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.P. | director | Sale | 44,728 @ $17.31 | $774K | −1.0% of holding | −14.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 4,562,516 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-04-06 | RA CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.P. | director | Sale | 6,775 @ $18.50 | $125K | −0.1% of holding | −14.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 4,555,741 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-04-02 | RA CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.P. | director | Sale | 258,475 @ $18.23 | $4.7M | −4.8% of holding | −28.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 5,146,523 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-02 | RA CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.P. | director | Sale | 1,525 @ $19.06 | $29K | −0.0% of holding | −28.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 5,144,998 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-30 | RA CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.P. | director | Sale | 24,579 @ $25.12 | $617K | −3.1% of holding | −69.3% | −47.4% | 779,652 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-10-29 | RA CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.P. | director | Sale | 251,518 @ $25.22 | $6.3M | −23.8% of holding | −66.8% | −51.1% | 804,231 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-10-28 | RA CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.P. | director | Sale | 87,828 @ $27.10 | $2.4M | −7.4% of holding | −69.4% | −52.0% | 1,092,232 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-28 | RA CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.P. | director | Sale | 36,483 @ $28.18 | $1.0M | −3.3% of holding | −69.4% | −52.0% | 1,055,749 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-27 | RA CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.P. | director | Sale | 90,941 @ $28.12 | $2.6M | −7.2% of holding | −70.2% | −54.6% | 1,180,060 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-10-24 | RA CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.P. | director | Sale | 53,345 @ $28.01 | $1.5M | −4.0% of holding | −68.0% | −52.8% | 1,271,001 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-23 | RA CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.P. | director | Sale | 76,880 @ $28.01 | $2.2M | −5.5% of holding | −71.3% | −56.2% | 1,324,346 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-21 | RA CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.P. | director | Sale | 25,027 @ $28.11 | $704K | −1.8% of holding | −70.5% | −53.5% | 1,401,226 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-10-21 | Reprogrammed Interchange LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 200 @ $30.07 | $6K | −0.0% of holding | −70.5% | −53.5% | 1,166,909 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-10-20 | RA CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.P. | director | Sale | 70,366 @ $29.63 | $2.1M | −4.7% of holding | −67.3% | −54.5% | 1,432,806 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-20 | RA CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.P. | director | Sale | 13,817 @ $29.63 | $409K | −91.5% of holding | −67.3% | −54.5% | 1,287 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-20 | Reprogrammed Interchange LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 11,616 @ $30.05 | $349K | −1.0% of holding | −67.3% | −54.5% | 1,167,109 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-10-20 | RA CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.P. | director | Sale | 6,553 @ $30.12 | $197K | −0.5% of holding | −67.3% | −54.5% | 1,426,253 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-20 | RA CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.P. | director | Sale | 1,287 @ $30.12 | $39K | −100.0% of holding | −67.3% | −54.5% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-17 | RA CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.P. | director | Sale | 174,594 @ $29.12 | $5.1M | −10.1% of holding | −65.6% | −54.3% | 1,546,621 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-10-17 | RA CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.P. | director | Sale | 34,284 @ $29.12 | $998K | −59.2% of holding | −65.6% | −54.3% | 23,636 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-10-17 | RA CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.P. | director | Sale | 30,758 @ $30.28 | $931K | −2.0% of holding | −65.6% | −54.3% | 1,515,863 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-10-17 | Reprogrammed Interchange LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 24,689 @ $30.22 | $746K | −2.0% of holding | −65.6% | −54.3% | 1,179,753 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-17 | RA CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.P. | director | Sale | 12,691 @ $31.00 | $393K | −0.8% of holding | −65.6% | −54.3% | 1,503,172 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-10-17 | RA CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.P. | director | Sale | 6,040 @ $30.28 | $183K | −25.6% of holding | −65.6% | −54.3% | 17,596 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-10-17 | RA CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.P. | director | Sale | 2,492 @ $31.00 | $77K | −14.2% of holding | −65.6% | −54.3% | 15,104 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-10-17 | Reprogrammed Interchange LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 1,028 @ $31.00 | $32K | −0.1% of holding | −65.6% | −54.3% | 1,178,725 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-16 | RA CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.P. | director | Sale | 111,041 @ $29.32 | $3.3M | −6.0% of holding | −67.3% | −53.8% | 1,737,061 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-10-16 | RA CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.P. | director | Sale | 21,804 @ $29.32 | $639K | −26.3% of holding | −67.3% | −53.8% | 61,032 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-10-16 | RA CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.P. | director | Sale | 15,826 @ $30.36 | $480K | −0.9% of holding | −67.3% | −53.8% | 1,721,235 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-10-16 | RA CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.P. | director | Sale | 3,108 @ $30.36 | $94K | −5.1% of holding | −67.3% | −53.8% | 57,924 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-10-16 | Reprogrammed Interchange LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 2,021 @ $30.45 | $62K | −0.2% of holding | −67.3% | −53.8% | 1,204,442 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-10-16 | RA CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.P. | director | Sale | 20 @ $31.35 | $627 | −0.0% of holding | −67.3% | −53.8% | 1,721,215 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-10-16 | RA CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.P. | director | Sale | 4 @ $31.35 | $125 | −0.0% of holding | −67.3% | −53.8% | 57,920 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-10-15 | Reprogrammed Interchange LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 48,910 @ $32.05 | $1.6M | −3.9% of holding | −68.8% | −52.5% | 1,214,357 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-15 | RA CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.P. | director | Sale | 42,699 @ $30.55 | $1.3M | −2.3% of holding | −68.8% | −52.5% | 1,848,336 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-15 | Reprogrammed Interchange LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 14,851 @ $31.05 | $461K | −1.2% of holding | −68.8% | −52.5% | 1,263,267 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-15 | Reprogrammed Interchange LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 7,894 @ $32.77 | $259K | −0.7% of holding | −68.8% | −52.5% | 1,206,463 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-15 | RA CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.P. | director | Sale | 8,384 @ $30.55 | $256K | −9.2% of holding | −68.8% | −52.5% | 82,882 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-15 | RA CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.P. | director | Sale | 234 @ $31.17 | $7K | −0.0% of holding | −68.8% | −52.5% | 1,848,102 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-15 | RA CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.P. | director | Sale | 46 @ $31.17 | $1K | −0.1% of holding | −68.8% | −52.5% | 82,836 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-14 | Reprogrammed Interchange LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 33,668 @ $30.32 | $1.0M | −2.6% of holding | −70.5% | −58.0% | 1,278,118 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-10-13 | Reprogrammed Interchange LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 19,672 @ $32.36 | $637K | −1.5% of holding | −72.5% | −57.9% | 1,314,120 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-13 | Reprogrammed Interchange LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 2,334 @ $33.09 | $77K | −0.2% of holding | −72.5% | −57.9% | 1,311,786 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-10 | Reprogrammed Interchange LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 40,983 @ $30.97 | $1.3M | −3.0% of holding | −44.2% | −56.1% | 1,333,792 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-09 | Reprogrammed Interchange LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 33,842 @ $31.92 | $1.1M | −2.4% of holding | −41.0% | −52.5% | 1,389,817 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-10-09 | Reprogrammed Interchange LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 15,042 @ $32.41 | $487K | −1.1% of holding | −41.0% | −52.5% | 1,374,775 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-10-08 | Reprogrammed Interchange LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 60,926 @ $33.75 | $2.1M | −4.1% of holding | −42.8% | −55.2% | 1,437,995 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-08 | Reprogrammed Interchange LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 14,336 @ $34.34 | $492K | −1.0% of holding | −42.8% | −55.2% | 1,423,659 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
110 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-24 | RA CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.P. | director | Option exercise | 1,500 | 1,500 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-24 | RA CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.P. | director | Option exercise | 1,500 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-16 | RA CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.P. | director | Exercise | 2,100,000 | 7,900,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-16 | RA CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.P. | director | Exercise | 2,100,000 | 4,502,095 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-07 | ZACCARDELLI DAVID | director | Award / grant | 42,658 | 42,658 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-11 | Detheux Michel | director | Award / grant | 57,162 | 57,162 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-11 | Joustra Wouter | director | Award / grant | 57,162 | 57,162 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-11 | Kalir Erez | director | Award / grant | 57,162 | 57,162 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-11 | Beckman Daniella | director | Award / grant | 53,283 | 53,283 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-11 | Levin Andrew David | director | Award / grant | 57,162 | 57,162 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-11 | Namouni Fouad | director | Award / grant | 56,549 | 56,549 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-11 | RA CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.P. | director | Award / grant | 57,162 | 57,162 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-11 | Cumbo Alexander | director | Award / grant | 56,345 | 56,345 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-18 | RA CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.P. | director | Award / grant | 4,625,346 | 5,404,998 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-18 | Joustra Wouter | director | Award / grant | 3,000 | 3,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-18 | Levin Andrew David | director | Award / grant | 3,000 | 3,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-18 | RA CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.P. | director | Award / grant | 3,000 | 3,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-05 | Mahatme Sandesh | director | Disposition | 694,137 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-05 | Mahatme Sandesh | director | Award / grant | 1,388,274 | 1,388,274 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-05 | Zuraw Qing Che | officer | Disposition | 218,652 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-05 | Zuraw Qing Che | officer | Award / grant | 218,652 | 218,652 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-05 | Kress Jean-Paul | director | Disposition | 4,164,831 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-05 | Kress Jean-Paul | director | Award / grant | 4,164,831 | 4,164,831 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-18 | RA CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.P. | director | Award / grant | 10,000,000 | 10,000,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-08 | Reed Sarah Burgess | director | Award / grant | 60,000 | 60,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-08 | RA CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.P. | director | Award / grant | 60,000 | 60,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-07-17 | Zuraw Qing Che | officer | Award / grant | 4,373,040 | 4,373,040 | Form 4 |
| 2025-07-17 | Zuraw Qing Che | officer | Award / grant | 937,080 | 937,080 | Form 4 |
| 2025-07-16 | Cumbo Alexander | director | Award / grant | 60,000 | 60,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-07-16 | Detheux Michel | director | Award / grant | 60,000 | 60,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-07-09 | Mahatme Sandesh | director | Award / grant | 13,882,750 | 13,882,750 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-26 | Kress Jean-Paul | director | Award / grant | 83,296,638 | 83,296,638 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-22 | Patterson Matthew R | director | Award / grant | 30,000 | 30,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-22 | Kalir Erez | director | Award / grant | 30,000 | 30,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-22 | Lubner David Charles | director | Award / grant | 30,000 | 30,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-22 | Namouni Fouad | director | Award / grant | 30,000 | 30,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-22 | Resnick Joshua | director | Award / grant | 30,000 | 30,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-22 | Beckman Daniella | director | Award / grant | 30,000 | 30,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-22 | RA CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.P. | director | Award / grant | 30,000 | 30,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-22 | Lundberg Sven Ante | director | Award / grant | 30,000 | 30,000 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.