VNTVontier Corporationas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $31.53 · now $31.53 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, VNT has typically landed between $26.66 and $36.39 — a range of −15.4% to +15.4% from the issuance price $31.53.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

1,468 overlapping 1 month windows · 2020-09-24 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($31.53) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where VNT has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $31.53 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$26.66worst · -15.4%$36.39best · +15.4%
  • now $31.53 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $31.83 (+0.9%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $30.01–$33.64
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $26.66–$36.39
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 1,468 windows spanning 2020-09-24 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2022-08-25−27.7%−27.7%+0.0%
2026-04-20−25.6%−25.6%+0.0%
2026-04-17−25.0%−25.0%+0.1%
3 best
2025-04-21+25.0%+0.0%+26.9%
2024-01-31+24.7%+0.0%+24.7%
2025-04-08+24.4%+0.0%+24.4%

1,468 overlapping windows · 2020-09-24 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~6 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
67%
+2.4%
n=6
Feb
50%
+4.5%
n=6
Mar
50%
−2.4%
n=6
Apr
50%
−1.5%
n=6
May
67%
+2.6%
n=6
Jun
50%
−1.9%
n=6
Jul
67%
+4.5%
n=6
Aug
67%
−0.2%
n=6
Sep
0%
−6.8%
n=6
Oct
50%
+0.8%
n=6
Nov
67%
+4.3%
n=6
Dec
50%
−0.9%
n=6

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$44$282026-03-02: 1 insider sale, $220K — Aga Anshooman2026-02-17: 1 insider sale, $468K — Rowen Kathryn K.2026-02: 1 open-market sale, $468K2026-03: 1 open-market sale, $220K↑ buys↓ salesofficer Aga Anshooman — Sale on 2026-03-02, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Rowen Kathryn K. — Sale on 2026-02-17, filed 1 day after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-03-02Aga AnshoomanofficerSale5,489 @ $40.16$220K−4.0% of holding−8.7%not yet — horizon still open133,341Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-17Rowen Kathryn K.officerSale11,264 @ $41.54$468K−10.3% of holding−9.3%−32.4%98,174Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-05-12Rowen Kathryn K.officerSale7,344 @ $36.34$267K−7.7% of holding−2.8%−14.0%88,248Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

70 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-06-26Eatroff Robert LdirectorAward / grant1,16058,386Form 4
2026-06-25Eatroff Robert LdirectorAward / grant157,226Form 4
2026-06-04Francis Karen CdirectorAward / grant9,25574,100Form 4
2026-06-04Boyland Gloria R.directorAward / grant6,05539,210Form 4
2026-06-04Sylvester MaryrosedirectorAward / grant6,05529,051Form 4
2026-06-04Thomas James DarrelldirectorAward / grant6,05516,425Form 4
2026-06-04Eatroff Robert LdirectorAward / grant6,05557,224Form 4
2026-06-04FOULKES DAVID MdirectorAward / grant6,05523,470Form 4
2026-03-27Eatroff Robert LdirectorAward / grant90551,169Form 4
2026-03-26Eatroff Robert LdirectorAward / grant150,264Form 4
2026-03-24Morelli Mark DdirectorAward / grant4,65433,622Form 4
2026-03-24Aga AnshoomanofficerAward / grant2,17710,267Form 4
2026-03-24Rowen Kathryn K.officerAward / grant1,89511,902Form 4
2026-03-24Shimp Paul V.officerAward / grant1,0226,944Form 4
2026-02-27Morelli Mark DdirectorWithheld for tax14,998546,214Form 4
2026-02-27Aga AnshoomanofficerWithheld for tax4,439138,830Form 4
2026-02-27Rowen Kathryn K.officerWithheld for tax2,96093,056Form 4
2026-02-27Shimp Paul V.officerWithheld for tax1,18427,849Form 4
2026-02-19Morelli Mark DdirectorWithheld for tax10,181561,212Form 4
2026-02-19Aga AnshoomanofficerWithheld for tax3,563143,269Form 4
2026-02-19Rowen Kathryn K.officerWithheld for tax2,15896,016Form 4
2026-02-19Shimp Paul V.officerWithheld for tax1,08829,033Form 4
2026-02-16Morelli Mark DdirectorAward / grant62,50062,500Form 4
2026-02-16Aga AnshoomanofficerAward / grant25,605135,442Form 4
2026-02-16Aga AnshoomanofficerAward / grant11,390146,832Form 4
2026-02-16Aga AnshoomanofficerAward / grant25,00025,000Form 4
2026-02-16Morelli Mark DdirectorAward / grant61,960530,770Form 4
2026-02-16Morelli Mark DdirectorAward / grant40,623571,393Form 4
2026-02-16Rowen Kathryn K.officerAward / grant7,593109,438Form 4
2026-02-16Rowen Kathryn K.officerAward / grant25,00025,000Form 4
2026-02-16Rowen Kathryn K.officerAward / grant16,645101,845Form 4
2026-02-16Shimp Paul V.officerAward / grant4,10030,121Form 4
2026-02-13Morelli Mark DdirectorWithheld for tax8,679468,810Form 4
2026-02-13Aga AnshoomanofficerWithheld for tax3,592109,837Form 4
2026-02-13Rowen Kathryn K.officerWithheld for tax2,38185,200Form 4
2026-02-13Shimp Paul V.officerWithheld for tax63226,021Form 4
2025-12-31Eatroff Robert LdirectorAward / grant91050,263Form 4
2025-12-11Eatroff Robert LdirectorAward / grant149,353Form 4
2025-11-14Boyland Gloria R.directorGift5,34033,155Form 4
2025-09-26Eatroff Robert LdirectorAward / grant79049,352Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

'23 Q'25 Qpurchases ▲ / sales ▼ ($ vol)
MemberChamberTypeFiledTradedSize
Lisa McclainHousesale2025-08-132025-06-10$1–15K
Lisa McclainHousepurchase2025-08-132025-06-09$1–15K
Lois FrankelHousesale2023-10-102023-09-08$1–15K
Lois FrankelHousesale2023-05-192023-04-24$1–15K
Lois FrankelHousepurchase2022-10-242022-09-23$1–15K
Lois FrankelHousepurchase2022-06-092022-04-25$1–15K
Susie LeeHousesale2021-07-132021-06-23$1–15K
Susie LeeHousesale2021-07-132021-06-21$1–15K
Susie LeeHousepurchase2021-02-102021-01-15$1–15K
Susie LeeHousepurchase2021-02-102021-01-13$1–15K
Susie LeeHousepurchase2021-01-112020-12-11$1–15K
Susie LeeHousepurchase2020-12-082020-10-19$1–15K

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.