VNOM · TickerCove

VNOMViper Energy, Inc.Energy · Oil & Gas Midstreamas of 2026-09-16

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $43.19 · now $43.19 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, VNOM has typically landed between $38.32 and $49.96 — a range of −11.3% to +15.7% from the issuance price $43.19.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

3,059 overlapping 1 month windows · 2014-06-18 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($43.19) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$43.19 · 53% of range

$35.16 low$50.23 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-16 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,408 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

53.9%

90% CI 51.7%–56.1%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

+1.4%

typical move · IQR 10.2%

−11.3%worst (p90)+15.7%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

0 buys · 0 sells · 0 members

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where VNOM has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $43.19 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $43.19 (+0.0%)
typical $43.78 (+1.4%)
middle 50% $41.58–$45.98
90% range $38.32–$49.96

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 3,059 windows spanning 2014-06-18 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2020-02-21	−77.2%	−77.2%	+0.0%
2020-02-18	−76.3%	−76.3%	+1.6%
2020-02-20	−74.8%	−76.3%	+0.0%
3 best
2020-11-04	+76.8%	+0.0%	+76.8%
2020-10-28	+71.2%	+0.0%	+71.2%
2020-11-06	+71.0%	+0.0%	+73.5%

3,059 overlapping windows · 2014-06-18 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~13 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

58%

+5.6%

n=12

Feb

67%

+3.8%

n=12

Mar

58%

−3.4%

n=12

Apr

67%

+8.4%

n=12

May

58%

+1.1%

n=12

Jun

33%

−2.0%

n=12

Jul

54%

−0.1%

n=13

Aug

85%

+4.5%

n=13

Sep

38%

−4.0%

n=13

Oct

50%

−0.4%

n=12

Nov

58%

+5.4%

n=12

Dec

58%

−0.6%

n=12

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing
2026-03-19	Diamondback Energy, Inc.	director	Sale	510,071 @ $45.69	$23.3M	−50.0% of holding	−9.6%	not yet — horizon still open	510,071	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-03-04	Diamondback Energy, Inc.	director	Sale	12,391,304 @ $45.69	$566.2M	−50.0% of holding	+8.1%	−9.8%	12,391,304	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

95 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-09-01	Diamondback Energy, Inc.	director	Award / grant	2,808,459	10,874,987	Form 4
2026-09-01	Diamondback Energy, Inc.	director	Award / grant	2,808,459	10,874,987	Form 4
2026-09-01	Diamondback Energy, Inc.	director	Award / grant	2,808,459	10,874,987	Form 4
2026-09-01	Diamondback Energy, Inc.	director	Award / grant	1,007,000	70,633,640	Form 4
2026-09-01	Diamondback Energy, Inc.	director	Award / grant	1,007,000	70,633,640	Form 4
2026-09-01	Diamondback Energy, Inc.	director	Award / grant	2,808,459	10,874,987	Form 4
2026-09-01	Diamondback Energy, Inc.	director	Award / grant	2,808,459	10,874,987	Form 4
2026-09-01	Diamondback Energy, Inc.	director	Award / grant	1,007,000	70,633,640	Form 4
2026-09-01	Diamondback Energy, Inc.	director	Award / grant	1,007,000	70,633,640	Form 4
2026-09-01	Diamondback Energy, Inc.	director	Award / grant	1,007,000	70,633,640	Form 4
2026-09-01	Diamondback Energy, Inc.	director	Award / grant	1,007,000	70,633,640	Form 4
2026-09-01	Diamondback Energy, Inc.	director	Award / grant	2,808,459	10,874,987	Form 4
2026-09-01	Diamondback Energy, Inc.	director	Award / grant	2,808,459	10,874,987	Form 4
2026-09-01	Diamondback Energy, Inc.	director	Award / grant	1,007,000	70,633,640	Form 4
2026-09-01	Diamondback Energy, Inc.	director	Award / grant	1,007,000	70,633,640	Form 4
2026-09-01	Diamondback Energy, Inc.	director	Award / grant	2,808,459	10,874,987	Form 4
2026-05-19	Argo Laurie H	director	Award / grant	3,612	14,203	Form 4
2026-05-19	Armour Spencer D III	director	Award / grant	3,612	50,327	Form 4
2026-05-19	Rubin James L.	director	Award / grant	3,612	16,119	Form 4
2026-05-19	Hu Frank C.	director	Award / grant	3,612	20,110	Form 4
2026-05-19	WEST STEVEN E	director	Award / grant	3,612	22,093	Form 4
2026-05-19	PERRY WILLIAM WESLEY	director	Award / grant	3,612	82,355	Form 4
2026-05-19	Stice Travis D.	director	Award / grant	3,612	109,781	Form 4
2026-03-19	Diamondback Energy, Inc.	director	Conversion	510,071	64,463,550	Form 4
2026-03-19	Diamondback Energy, Inc.	director	Conversion	510,071	64,463,550	Form 4
2026-03-19	Diamondback Energy, Inc.	director	Conversion	510,071	510,071	Form 4
2026-03-19	Diamondback Energy, Inc.	director	Conversion	510,071	64,463,550	Form 4
2026-03-19	Diamondback Energy, Inc.	director	Conversion	510,071	64,463,550	Form 4
2026-03-19	Diamondback Energy, Inc.	director	Conversion	510,071	510,071	Form 4
2026-03-04	Diamondback Energy, Inc.	director	Conversion	12,391,304	12,391,304	Form 4
2026-03-04	Diamondback Energy, Inc.	director	Conversion	12,391,304	64,973,621	Form 4
2026-03-04	Diamondback Energy, Inc.	director	Conversion	12,391,304	64,973,621	Form 4
2026-03-04	Diamondback Energy, Inc.	director	Conversion	12,391,304	12,391,304	Form 4
2026-03-04	Diamondback Energy, Inc.	director	Conversion	12,391,304	64,973,621	Form 4
2026-03-04	Diamondback Energy, Inc.	director	Conversion	12,391,304	64,973,621	Form 4
2026-03-01	Gilfillian Austen	officer	Withheld for tax	2,645	52,303	Form 4
2026-03-01	Gilfillian Austen	officer	Withheld for tax	1,614	49,268	Form 4
2026-03-01	Gilfillian Austen	officer	Withheld for tax	1,421	50,882	Form 4
2026-03-01	Krueger William F	officer	Withheld for tax	1,166	14,999	Form 4
2026-03-01	Krueger William F	officer	Withheld for tax	1,153	13,846	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Resolves in i

28d remaining

2026-09-173% elapsed2026-10-15

Logged immutably 2026-09-17; scored automatically on 2026-10-15 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Congressional disclosures

Seasonality · by month i