VNOVornado Realty Trustas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $34.82 · now $34.82 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, VNO has typically landed between $29.26 and $41.50 — a range of −16.0% to +19.2% from the issuance price $34.82.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

4,673 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($34.82) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where VNO has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $34.82 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$29.26worst · -16.0%$41.5best · +19.2%
  • now $34.82 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $34.85 (+0.1%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $31.92–$37.78
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $29.26–$41.5
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,673 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2020-02-18−54.1%−54.1%+0.0%
2020-02-20−53.9%−53.9%+0.0%
2020-02-21−52.1%−53.5%+0.0%
3 best
2009-03-30+55.8%+0.0%+56.3%
2009-07-09+49.0%+0.0%+49.0%
2009-04-08+48.1%+0.0%+51.0%

4,673 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
56%
+1.3%
n=18
Feb
37%
−4.6%
n=19
Mar
68%
−1.3%
n=19
Apr
68%
+4.5%
n=19
May
42%
−1.5%
n=19
Jun
53%
+1.6%
n=19
Jul
68%
+3.9%
n=19
Aug
37%
−0.1%
n=19
Sep
47%
−0.5%
n=19
Oct
50%
−1.6%
n=18
Nov
50%
+2.3%
n=18
Dec
72%
+2.0%
n=18

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$42$252026-06-17: 2 insider sales, $4.9M — Fascitelli Michael D …2026-06-08: 4 insider purchases, $68K — WIGHT RUSSELL B JR …2026-03-12: 1 insider purchase, $767K — TISCH DANIEL R2026-03-03: 1 insider purchase, $1.8M — TISCH DANIEL R2026-03-02: 1 insider purchase, $1.1M — TISCH DANIEL R2026-02-27: 1 insider purchase, $1.2M — TISCH DANIEL R2026-02-24: 1 insider purchase, $696K — TISCH DANIEL R2025-09-04: 1 insider sale, $1.2M — Chera Haim2025-09: 1 open-market sale, $1.2M2026-02: 2 open-market purchases, $1.9M2026-03: 3 open-market purchases, $3.7M2026-06: 4 open-market purchases, $68K2026-06: 2 open-market sales, $4.9M↑ buys↓ salesdirector Fascitelli Michael D — Sale on 2026-06-17, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Fascitelli Michael D — Sale on 2026-06-17, filed 1 day after the tradedirector WIGHT RUSSELL B JR — Purchase on 2026-06-08, filed 2 days after the tradedirector WIGHT RUSSELL B JR — Purchase on 2026-06-08, filed 2 days after the tradedirector WIGHT RUSSELL B JR — Purchase on 2026-06-08, filed 2 days after the tradedirector WIGHT RUSSELL B JR — Purchase on 2026-06-08, filed 2 days after the tradedirector TISCH DANIEL R — Purchase on 2026-03-12, filed 4 days after the tradedirector TISCH DANIEL R — Purchase on 2026-03-03, filed same daydirector TISCH DANIEL R — Purchase on 2026-03-02, filed 1 day after the tradedirector TISCH DANIEL R — Purchase on 2026-02-27, filed 4 days after the tradedirector TISCH DANIEL R — Purchase on 2026-02-24, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Chera Haim — Sale on 2025-09-04, filed 4 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-06-17Fascitelli Michael DdirectorSale125,350 @ $36.57$4.6M−20.6% of holding+8.6%not yet — horizon still open483,161Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-06-17Fascitelli Michael DdirectorSale8,000 @ $37.34$299K−1.7% of holding+8.6%not yet — horizon still open475,161Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-06-08WIGHT RUSSELL B JRdirectorPurchase1,000 @ $17.69$18K+100.0% of holding+3.3%not yet — horizon still open2,000Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-06-08WIGHT RUSSELL B JRdirectorPurchase1,000 @ $17.63$18K+10.3% of holding+3.3%not yet — horizon still open10,673Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-06-08WIGHT RUSSELL B JRdirectorPurchase1,000 @ $17.44$17K+8.3% of holding+3.3%not yet — horizon still open13,000Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-06-08WIGHT RUSSELL B JRdirectorPurchase1,000 @ $15.00$15K+33.3% of holding+3.3%not yet — horizon still open4,000Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-03-12TISCH DANIEL RdirectorPurchase30,000 @ $25.55$767K+16.2% of holding+2.5%not yet — horizon still open215,000Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-03-03TISCH DANIEL RdirectorPurchase70,000 @ $26.30$1.8M+60.9% of holding−3.7%not yet — horizon still open185,000Form 4 · filed same day
2026-03-02TISCH DANIEL RdirectorPurchase40,000 @ $27.09$1.1M+53.3% of holding−0.1%not yet — horizon still open115,000Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-27TISCH DANIEL RdirectorPurchase45,000 @ $27.70$1.2M+150.0% of holding−1.1%+15.7%75,000Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-02-24TISCH DANIEL RdirectorPurchase25,000 @ $27.85$696K+500.0% of holding−2.7%+15.2%30,000Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-09-04Chera HaimofficerSale30,000 @ $39.64$1.2M−100.0% of holding−0.6%−35.2%0Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-05-30Chera HaimofficerSale20,000 @ $37.98$760K−40.0% of holding−3.7%−18.9%30,000Form 4 · filed same day
2024-12-10WIGHT RUSSELL B JRdirectorSale2,000 @ $44.86$90K−65.9% of holding−9.7%−8.1%1,034Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

69 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-05-21Beinecke Candace KdirectorAward / grant7,1687,168Form 4
2026-05-21Bassey Beatrice HamzadirectorAward / grant7,1687,168Form 4
2026-05-21Beinecke Candace KdirectorAward / grant7,1687,168Form 4
2026-05-21WIGHT RUSSELL B JRdirectorAward / grant7,1687,168Form 4
2026-05-21TISCH DANIEL RdirectorAward / grant7,1687,168Form 4
2026-05-21Puri MandakinidirectorAward / grant7,1687,168Form 4
2026-05-21MANDELBAUM DAVIDdirectorAward / grant7,1687,168Form 4
2026-05-21McGuire Raymond JdirectorAward / grant7,1687,168Form 4
2026-05-21Puri MandakinidirectorAward / grant7,1687,168Form 4
2026-05-21Bassey Beatrice HamzadirectorAward / grant7,1687,168Form 4
2026-05-21TISCH DANIEL RdirectorAward / grant7,1687,168Form 4
2026-05-21Fascitelli Michael DdirectorAward / grant7,1687,168Form 4
2026-05-21MANDELBAUM DAVIDdirectorAward / grant7,1687,168Form 4
2026-05-21WIGHT RUSSELL B JRdirectorAward / grant7,1687,168Form 4
2026-05-21Helman William WdirectorAward / grant7,1687,168Form 4
2026-05-21Helman William WdirectorAward / grant7,1687,168Form 4
2026-05-21McGuire Raymond JdirectorAward / grant7,1687,168Form 4
2026-05-18ROTH STEVENdirectorGift26,4280Form 4
2026-05-06Chera HaimofficerConversion100,000200,000Form 4
2026-05-06Chera HaimofficerConversion100,000148,913Form 4
2026-05-06Chera HaimofficerConversion100,000148,913Form 4
2026-03-02Maddock Deirdre K.officerAward / grant4,0614,061Form 4
2026-03-02Maddock Deirdre K.officerAward / grant4,0614,061Form 4
2026-02-23Chera HaimofficerConversion100,000100,000Form 4
2026-02-23Chera HaimofficerConversion100,000248,913Form 4
2026-02-23Chera HaimofficerConversion100,000248,913Form 4
2026-02-05Chera HaimofficerAward / grant16,66131,572Form 4
2026-02-05Langer BarryofficerAward / grant41,95879,506Form 4
2026-02-05Franco Michael J.officerAward / grant52,19898,912Form 4
2026-02-05ROTH STEVENdirectorAward / grant172,249326,403Form 4
2026-02-05Weiss Glen J.officerAward / grant48,37491,664Form 4
2025-12-30Beinecke Candace KdirectorAward / grant1563,452Form 4
2025-05-22Beinecke Candace KdirectorAward / grant6,0626,062Form 4
2025-05-22Bassey Beatrice HamzadirectorAward / grant6,0626,062Form 4
2025-05-22WIGHT RUSSELL B JRdirectorAward / grant6,0626,062Form 4
2025-05-22TISCH DANIEL RdirectorAward / grant6,0626,062Form 4
2025-05-22Puri MandakinidirectorAward / grant6,0626,062Form 4
2025-05-22Fascitelli Michael DdirectorAward / grant6,0626,062Form 4
2025-05-22Puri MandakinidirectorAward / grant6,0626,062Form 4
2025-05-22WIGHT RUSSELL B JRdirectorAward / grant6,0626,062Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

'24 Qpurchases ▲ / sales ▼ ($ vol)
MemberChamberTypeFiledTradedSize
Ro KhannaHousesale2024-05-062024-04-26$1–15K
Daniel GoldmanHousepurchase2023-05-192023-04-10$1–15K
Daniel GoldmanHousesale2023-04-172023-03-01$1–15K
Daniel GoldmanHousesale2023-04-172023-03-06$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2023-04-072023-03-14$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2023-03-032023-02-10$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2023-02-072023-01-11$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2023-02-072023-01-09$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2022-12-062022-11-03$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2021-03-122021-02-25$1–15K
Gilbert CisnerosHousesale2020-10-142020-09-16$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2020-06-172020-05-20$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2020-04-202020-03-05$1–15K
Gilbert CisnerosHousepurchase2020-04-162020-03-18$1–15K

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.