Issued 2026-09-16 at $5.00 · now $5.00 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, VNDA has typically landed between $4.01 and $6.06 — a range of −19.9% to +21.1% from the issuance price $5.00.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
4,999 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($5.00) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where VNDA has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $5 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $5 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $4.9 (-2.1%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $4.5–$5.29
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $4.01–$6.06
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2008-06-26 | −78.1% | −78.1% | +0.0% |
| 2008-06-27 | −75.1% | −75.4% | +3.7% |
| 2008-07-08 | −72.3% | −73.7% | +10.9% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2009-04-28 | +1393.9% | +0.0% | +1393.9% |
| 2009-04-24 | +1373.4% | +0.0% | +1373.4% |
| 2009-04-29 | +1296.0% | +0.0% | +1349.5% |
4,999 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-02 | Polymeropoulos Mihael Hristos | director | Sale | 156,235 @ $8.17 | $1.3M | −5.5% of holding | −10.4% | −46.3% | 2,704,496 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | Moran Kevin Patrick | officer | Sale | 42,442 @ $8.27 | $351K | −9.4% of holding | −10.4% | −46.3% | 411,380 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | Williams Timothy | officer | Sale | 42,434 @ $8.27 | $351K | −10.1% of holding | −10.4% | −46.3% | 377,450 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | Birznieks Gunther | officer | Sale | 42,431 @ $8.27 | $351K | −7.9% of holding | −10.4% | −46.3% | 494,197 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | Wijkstrom Joakim | officer | Sale | 30,800 @ $8.27 | $255K | −8.5% of holding | −10.4% | −46.3% | 333,469 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-23 | Honore Tage | director | Sale | 30,000 @ $8.03 | $241K | −24.3% of holding | −12.3% | −47.1% | 93,469 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-07 | Polymeropoulos Mihael Hristos | director | Purchase | 10,000 @ $4.15 | $42K | +0.4% of holding | +5.7% | +70.4% | 2,335,731 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-06-13 | Mitchell Stephen Ray | director | Sale | 7,000 @ $4.59 | $32K | −6.7% of holding | +1.8% | +23.3% | 97,082 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-21 | Polymeropoulos Mihael Hristos | director | Purchase | 9,519 @ $4.40 | $42K | +0.4% of holding | +0.2% | +4.6% | 2,325,250 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-05-21 | Polymeropoulos Mihael Hristos | director | Purchase | 481 @ $4.39 | $2K | +0.0% of holding | +0.2% | +4.6% | 2,325,731 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-05-16 | Polymeropoulos Mihael Hristos | director | Purchase | 20,000 @ $4.22 | $84K | +0.9% of holding | +7.4% | −9.2% | 2,315,731 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-06 | Polymeropoulos Mihael Hristos | director | Purchase | 5,000 @ $5.02 | $25K | +0.2% of holding | −4.2% | −19.8% | 2,290,731 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-03-06 | Polymeropoulos Mihael Hristos | director | Purchase | 5,000 @ $5.01 | $25K | +0.2% of holding | −4.2% | −19.8% | 2,295,731 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-03-05 | Polymeropoulos Mihael Hristos | director | Purchase | 5,000 @ $5.03 | $25K | +0.2% of holding | −7.1% | −21.5% | 2,285,731 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-03-05 | Polymeropoulos Mihael Hristos | director | Purchase | 5,000 @ $5.01 | $25K | +0.2% of holding | −7.1% | −21.5% | 2,280,731 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-03-03 | Polymeropoulos Mihael Hristos | director | Purchase | 10,000 @ $4.71 | $47K | +0.4% of holding | −1.0% | −10.5% | 2,275,731 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-02-28 | Polymeropoulos Mihael Hristos | director | Purchase | 10,000 @ $4.76 | $48K | +0.4% of holding | +2.0% | −9.8% | 2,361,730 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-02-27 | Polymeropoulos Mihael Hristos | director | Purchase | 10,000 @ $4.76 | $48K | +0.4% of holding | +4.5% | −11.6% | 2,351,730 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-02-26 | Polymeropoulos Mihael Hristos | director | Purchase | 5,000 @ $4.78 | $24K | +0.2% of holding | +2.0% | −11.3% | 2,341,730 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-02-26 | Polymeropoulos Mihael Hristos | director | Purchase | 5,000 @ $4.75 | $24K | +0.2% of holding | +2.0% | −11.3% | 2,336,730 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-02-25 | Polymeropoulos Mihael Hristos | director | Purchase | 10,000 @ $4.46 | $45K | +0.4% of holding | +11.0% | −4.5% | 2,331,730 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-02-21 | Moran Kevin Patrick | officer | Purchase | 2,000 @ $4.39 | $9K | +0.6% of holding | +12.8% | −1.0% | 355,763 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
29 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-04 | Duncan Charles Cliff | director | Award / grant | 41,600 | 98,701 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-04 | McGuire Daniel Patrick | officer | Award / grant | 80,000 | 109,982 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-04 | Chrousos Phaedra | director | Award / grant | 41,600 | 164,950 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-04 | Honore Tage | director | Award / grant | 41,600 | 135,069 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-04 | DUGAN RICHARD W | director | Award / grant | 41,600 | 219,054 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-04 | Mitchell Stephen Ray | director | Award / grant | 41,600 | 112,846 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-04 | Ward Anne Sempowski | director | Award / grant | 41,600 | 160,667 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-18 | Mitchell Stephen Ray | director | Gift | 25,836 | 71,246 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-22 | Duncan Charles Cliff | director | Award / grant | 57,101 | 57,101 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-18 | Wijkstrom Joakim | officer | Award / grant | 125,000 | 364,269 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-18 | Birznieks Gunther | officer | Award / grant | 125,000 | 536,628 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-18 | Williams Timothy | officer | Award / grant | 125,000 | 419,884 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-18 | Moran Kevin Patrick | officer | Award / grant | 125,000 | 453,822 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-18 | Polymeropoulos Mihael Hristos | director | Award / grant | 525,000 | 2,860,731 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-05 | Chrousos Phaedra | director | Award / grant | 59,225 | 123,350 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-05 | Ward Anne Sempowski | director | Award / grant | 59,225 | 119,067 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-05 | DUGAN RICHARD W | director | Award / grant | 59,225 | 177,454 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-05 | Mitchell Stephen Ray | director | Award / grant | 59,225 | 104,082 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-05 | Honore Tage | director | Award / grant | 59,225 | 123,469 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-01 | Polymeropoulos Mihael Hristos | director | Withheld for tax | 95,999 | 2,265,731 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-01 | Moran Kevin Patrick | officer | Withheld for tax | 26,941 | 328,822 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-01 | Williams Timothy | officer | Withheld for tax | 26,941 | 294,884 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-01 | Birznieks Gunther | officer | Withheld for tax | 26,941 | 411,628 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-01 | Wijkstrom Joakim | officer | Withheld for tax | 15,520 | 239,269 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-18 | Williams Timothy | officer | Award / grant | 125,000 | 321,825 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-18 | Birznieks Gunther | officer | Award / grant | 125,000 | 438,569 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-18 | Moran Kevin Patrick | officer | Award / grant | 125,000 | 353,763 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-18 | Wijkstrom Joakim | officer | Award / grant | 125,000 | 254,789 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-18 | Polymeropoulos Mihael Hristos | director | Award / grant | 450,000 | 2,321,730 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.