Issued 2026-09-16 at $8.62 · now $8.62 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, VNCE has typically landed between $5.94 and $12.99 — a range of −31.1% to +50.7% from the issuance price $8.62.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
3,195 overlapping 1 month windows · 2013-11-22 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($8.62) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where VNCE has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $8.62 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $8.62 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $8.33 (-3.4%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $7.4–$9.25
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $5.94–$12.99
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2017-04-11 | −75.6% | −75.6% | +0.0% |
| 2017-04-12 | −75.4% | −75.4% | +3.8% |
| 2020-02-18 | −74.4% | −74.4% | +1.7% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2023-12-08 | +284.2% | −3.3% | +284.2% |
| 2023-12-07 | +247.1% | −4.1% | +247.1% |
| 2023-12-11 | +214.2% | −3.3% | +284.2% |
3,195 overlapping windows · 2013-11-22 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~13 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-24 | Ulasewicz Eugenia | director | Sale | 11,322 @ $4.34 | $49K | −11.0% of holding | −39.6% | +75.4% | 91,513 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-08 | KROUSE RODGER R | other | Sale | 7,525 @ $1.67 | $13K | −0.6% of holding | −14.8% | +43.3% | 1,247,767 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-08 | LEDER MARC J | other | Sale | 7,525 @ $1.67 | $13K | −0.6% of holding | −14.8% | +43.3% | 1,247,767 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-08 | Sun Cardinal, LLC | other | Sale | 4,721 @ $1.66 | $8K | −0.5% of holding | −14.8% | +43.3% | 925,993 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-08 | SK FINANCIAL SERVICES, LLC | other | Sale | 1,804 @ $1.71 | $3K | −12.6% of holding | −14.8% | +43.3% | 12,535 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-08 | SCSF Cardinal, LLC | other | Sale | 1,000 @ $1.68 | $2K | −0.3% of holding | −14.8% | +43.3% | 309,239 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-07 | SK FINANCIAL SERVICES, LLC | other | Sale | 7,641 @ $1.76 | $13K | −34.8% of holding | −19.2% | +34.9% | 14,339 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-07 | KROUSE RODGER R | other | Sale | 7,641 @ $1.76 | $13K | −0.6% of holding | −19.2% | +34.9% | 1,255,292 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-07 | LEDER MARC J | other | Sale | 7,641 @ $1.76 | $13K | −0.6% of holding | −19.2% | +34.9% | 1,255,292 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-01-22 | KROUSE RODGER R | other | Sale | 7,218,385 @ $2.33 | $16.8M | −85.1% of holding | +15.1% | −40.2% | 1,262,933 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-01-22 | LEDER MARC J | other | Sale | 7,218,385 @ $2.33 | $16.8M | −85.1% of holding | +15.1% | −40.2% | 1,262,933 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-01-22 | Sun Cardinal, LLC | other | Sale | 5,319,565 @ $2.33 | $12.4M | −85.1% of holding | +15.1% | −40.2% | 930,714 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-01-22 | SCSF Cardinal, LLC | other | Sale | 1,773,193 @ $2.33 | $4.1M | −85.1% of holding | +15.1% | −40.2% | 310,239 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-01-22 | SK FINANCIAL SERVICES, LLC | other | Sale | 125,627 @ $2.33 | $293K | −85.1% of holding | +15.1% | −40.2% | 21,980 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
10 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-28 | Okumura Yuji | officer | Withheld for tax | 545 | 13,724 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-23 | Okumura Yuji | officer | Award / grant | 15,000 | 15,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-23 | OKUMA AKIKO | officer | Award / grant | 15,000 | 15,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-23 | Norton Jill | officer | Award / grant | 15,000 | 15,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-28 | Okumura Yuji | officer | Award / grant | 5,000 | 14,269 | Form 4 |
| 2025-01-22 | Szczepanski John | officer | Withheld for tax | 14,727 | 30,364 | Form 4 |
| 2025-01-22 | OKUMA AKIKO | officer | Withheld for tax | 6,875 | 26,837 | Form 4 |
| 2025-01-22 | Fogel Marie | officer | Withheld for tax | 5,271 | 27,872 | Form 4 |
| 2025-01-22 | Meiner Lee | officer | Withheld for tax | 3,368 | 20,208 | Form 4 |
| 2025-01-02 | Szczepanski John | officer | Withheld for tax | 4,909 | 45,091 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.