VMIValmont Industries, Inc.Industrials · Conglomeratesas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $475.35 · now $475.35 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, VMI has typically landed between $416.18 and $542.12 — a range of −12.4% to +14.0% from the issuance price $475.35.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($475.35) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where VMI has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $475.35 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$416.18worst · -12.4%$542.12best · +14.0%
  • now $475.35 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $482.34 (+1.5%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $456.58–$508.11
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $416.18–$542.12
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,003 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2008-09-26−51.0%−51.0%+0.0%
2008-09-25−50.7%−50.7%+0.0%
2008-09-24−45.5%−45.5%+1.4%
3 best
2008-11-20+49.7%+0.0%+61.4%
2008-03-17+46.7%+0.0%+46.7%
2008-11-19+45.2%−7.6%+49.2%

5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
45%
−0.3%
n=20
Feb
65%
+2.4%
n=20
Mar
60%
+1.9%
n=20
Apr
75%
+4.6%
n=20
May
55%
+1.6%
n=20
Jun
55%
+0.8%
n=20
Jul
55%
+0.8%
n=20
Aug
40%
+0.4%
n=20
Sep
50%
−1.5%
n=20
Oct
70%
+1.2%
n=20
Nov
80%
+4.5%
n=20
Dec
50%
+0.4%
n=20

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$583$3612026-07-27: 1 insider sale, $396K — Freye Theodor Werner2026-07-23: 1 insider purchase, $101K — Schwietz John L2026-05-06: 1 insider sale, $215K — Campbell Renee L2026-04-24: 5 insider sales, $8.6M — BAY MOGENS C …2025-10-23: 1 insider sale, $154K — Colwell James Christopher2025-08-25: 1 insider sale, $251K — Campbell Renee L2025-08: 2 open-market sales, $1.3M2025-10: 1 open-market sale, $154K2026-04: 5 open-market sales, $8.6M2026-05: 1 open-market sale, $215K2026-07: 1 open-market purchase, $101K2026-07: 1 open-market sale, $396K↑ buys↓ salesdirector Freye Theodor Werner — Sale on 2026-07-27, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Schwietz John L — Purchase on 2026-07-23, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Campbell Renee L — Sale on 2026-05-06, filed 1 day after the tradedirector BAY MOGENS C — Sale on 2026-04-24, filed 4 days after the tradedirector BAY MOGENS C — Sale on 2026-04-24, filed 4 days after the tradedirector BAY MOGENS C — Sale on 2026-04-24, filed 4 days after the tradedirector BAY MOGENS C — Sale on 2026-04-24, filed 4 days after the tradedirector BAY MOGENS C — Sale on 2026-04-24, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Colwell James Christopher — Sale on 2025-10-23, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Campbell Renee L — Sale on 2025-08-25, filed 1 day after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-07-27Freye Theodor WernerdirectorSale800 @ $495.00$396K−22.2% of holding−8.1%not yet — horizon still open2,805Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-07-23Schwietz John LofficerPurchase208 @ $486.14$101K+7.5% of holding−4.3%not yet — horizon still open2,992Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-06Campbell Renee LofficerSale412 @ $522.45$215K−51.4% of holding+1.6%not yet — horizon still open390Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-04-24BAY MOGENS CdirectorSale7,550 @ $491.48$3.7M−6.0% of holding+0.9%not yet — horizon still open117,259Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-04-24BAY MOGENS CdirectorSale5,000 @ $494.07$2.5M−3.9% of holding+0.9%not yet — horizon still open124,809Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-04-24BAY MOGENS CdirectorSale2,000 @ $490.00$980K−1.7% of holding+0.9%not yet — horizon still open115,259Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-04-24BAY MOGENS CdirectorSale1,500 @ $492.45$739K−1.3% of holding+0.9%not yet — horizon still open113,759Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-04-24BAY MOGENS CdirectorSale1,450 @ $493.96$716K−1.3% of holding+0.9%not yet — horizon still open112,309Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-10-23Colwell James ChristopherofficerSale375 @ $410.68$154K−4.9% of holding−2.5%+14.4%7,286Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-08-25Campbell Renee LofficerSale670 @ $374.90$251K−12.9% of holding−4.6%+16.0%4,535Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-08-01Francis Timothy PofficerSale2,867 @ $358.52$1.0M−22.7% of holding−0.8%+14.5%9,746Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-02-25Freye Theodor WernerdirectorSale1,000 @ $348.00$348K−27.1% of holding−9.4%−0.5%2,685Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-19Larkin Diane MofficerSale1,338 @ $373.50$500K−15.1% of holding−3.3%−5.1%7,524Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-02-19Larkin Diane MofficerSale923 @ $374.38$346K−10.7% of holding−3.3%−5.1%7,690Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-02-19Larkin Diane MofficerSale481 @ $371.25$179K−5.9% of holding−3.3%−5.1%7,717Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-02-19Larkin Diane MofficerSale391 @ $373.10$146K−4.8% of holding−3.3%−5.1%7,804Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

174 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-09-08Hickey ToniofficerAward / grant310310Form 4
2026-08-17Campbell Renee LofficerWithheld for tax6015,081Form 4
2026-08-17Campbell Renee LofficerOption exercise8385,682Form 4
2026-08-17Campbell Renee LofficerOption exercise8380Form 4
2026-07-31Applbaum Avner MdirectorWithheld for tax16226,031Form 4
2026-07-29Schwietz John LofficerWithheld for tax242,968Form 4
2026-04-27Maass Paul TdirectorAward / grant341341Form 4
2026-04-27Favre RitudirectorAward / grant3413,009Form 4
2026-04-27Freye Theodor WernerdirectorAward / grant3413,605Form 4
2026-04-27Caplan Deborah HdirectorAward / grant341920Form 4
2026-04-27Neary Daniel PdirectorAward / grant34117,643Form 4
2026-04-27Milliken James B.directorAward / grant3418,902Form 4
2026-04-27BAY MOGENS CdirectorAward / grant341112,650Form 4
2026-04-27PAGLIA CATHERINE JAMESdirectorAward / grant34110,836Form 4
2026-04-27Lanoha Richard AndrewdirectorAward / grant3413,676Form 4
2026-04-27Robinson-Berry JoandirectorAward / grant3412,828Form 4
2026-02-23Applbaum Avner MdirectorWithheld for tax1,59426,193Form 4
2026-02-23Colwell James ChristopherofficerWithheld for tax3997,929Form 4
2026-02-23MASSEY R ANDREWofficerWithheld for tax33110,827Form 4
2026-02-23Liguori ThomasofficerWithheld for tax3112,432Form 4
2026-02-23MATTHEWS DARRYL RofficerWithheld for tax2411,404Form 4
2026-02-23Campbell Renee LofficerDisposition1944,844Form 4
2026-02-23Turi Gregory RichardofficerWithheld for tax1345,100Form 4
2026-02-23Paisley JenniferofficerWithheld for tax932,998Form 4
2026-02-23Campbell Renee LofficerAward / grant4215,038Form 4
2026-02-23Colwell James ChristopherofficerAward / grant9138,328Form 4
2026-02-23MASSEY R ANDREWofficerAward / grant74611,158Form 4
2026-02-23MATTHEWS DARRYL RofficerAward / grant5411,645Form 4
2026-02-23Liguori ThomasofficerAward / grant7142,743Form 4
2026-02-23Turi Gregory RichardofficerAward / grant2895,234Form 4
2026-02-23Applbaum Avner MdirectorAward / grant3,71727,787Form 4
2026-02-23Paisley JenniferofficerAward / grant1923,091Form 4
2025-12-16Applbaum Avner MdirectorWithheld for tax55824,606Form 4
2025-12-16Colwell James ChristopherofficerWithheld for tax1567,415Form 4
2025-12-16Liguori ThomasofficerWithheld for tax1352,029Form 4
2025-12-16MATTHEWS DARRYL RofficerWithheld for tax971,104Form 4
2025-12-16Turi Gregory RichardofficerWithheld for tax804,945Form 4
2025-12-16MASSEY R ANDREWofficerWithheld for tax5810,412Form 4
2025-12-16Paisley JenniferofficerWithheld for tax552,899Form 4
2025-12-16Campbell Renee LofficerWithheld for tax334,617Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.