Issued 2026-09-16 at $244.30 · now $244.30 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, VMC has typically landed between $218.57 and $275.90 — a range of −10.5% to +12.9% from the issuance price $244.30.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
4,685 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($244.30) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where VMC has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $244.3 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $244.3 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $246.53 (+0.9%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $234.41–$258.65
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $218.57–$275.9
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,685 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2020-02-18 | −44.0% | −44.0% | +0.0% |
| 2008-09-26 | −43.7% | −43.7% | +0.0% |
| 2008-09-25 | −39.3% | −39.3% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2008-11-20 | +66.2% | −1.2% | +82.4% |
| 2008-11-21 | +66.1% | +0.0% | +84.7% |
| 2008-11-19 | +50.5% | −10.2% | +65.8% |
4,685 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.
$36.3B
market cap
$8.41
EPS (TTM)
33.3
P/E (TTM)
2026-07-29
next earnings
Revenue$7.9B
'20'25
Net income$1.1B
'20'25
Free cash flow$1.1B
'20'25
Net margin · by yr13.6%
'20'25
ROE · by yr12.7%
'20'25
Debt / equity · by yr0.63
'20'25
Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.
iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 16 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.- DCF (intrinsic)$231.46
- Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 23.9× · n=16$200.72
- Analyst target · range $283.00–$360.00$325.00
- Current price · last close 2026-09-16$244.30
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
61%
−0.4%
n=18
Feb
47%
+0.4%
n=19
Mar
47%
−0.5%
n=19
Apr
68%
+3.0%
n=19
May
47%
+0.1%
n=19
Jun
47%
−1.1%
n=19
Jul
58%
+1.3%
n=19
Aug
68%
+0.4%
n=19
Sep
47%
+0.1%
n=19
Oct
50%
−0.4%
n=18
Nov
89%
+6.2%
n=18
Dec
56%
+2.8%
n=18
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-21 | Hill J Thomas | director | Sale | 5,696 @ $275.49 | $1.6M | −7.9% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 66,513 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-21 | Hill J Thomas | director | Sale | 4,000 @ $276.70 | $1.1M | −6.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 58,209 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-21 | Hill J Thomas | director | Sale | 3,762 @ $276.51 | $1.0M | −5.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 62,751 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-21 | Hill J Thomas | director | Sale | 542 @ $277.09 | $150K | −0.9% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 62,209 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-07 | Clement David P | officer | Sale | 2,000 @ $285.10 | $570K | −22.9% of holding | −8.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 6,716 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-15 | Clement David P | officer | Sale | 2,212 @ $292.29 | $647K | −20.2% of holding | +0.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 8,716 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-20 | Anderson Melissa H. | director | Sale | 1,137 @ $303.72 | $345K | −100.0% of holding | −8.8% | −20.9% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-11 | BAKER THOMPSON S II | officer | Sale | 7,135 @ $300.81 | $2.1M | −100.0% of holding | +3.0% | −11.9% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-10 | Franklin Denson N. III | officer | Sale | 665 @ $295.00 | $196K | −7.4% of holding | +2.9% | −11.6% | 8,284 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-11-19 | Clement David P | officer | Sale | 1,000 @ $290.00 | $290K | −54.6% of holding | −0.3% | −21.1% | 832 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-19 | Clement David P | officer | Sale | 1,000 @ $287.10 | $287K | −35.3% of holding | −0.3% | −21.1% | 1,832 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-12 | BAKER THOMPSON S II | officer | Sale | 2,800 @ $295.00 | $826K | −6.3% of holding | +0.5% | −17.8% | 41,485 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-12 | BAKER THOMPSON S II | officer | Sale | 2,053 @ $296.50 | $609K | −4.4% of holding | +0.5% | −17.8% | 44,285 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-10 | HALL GRAYSON | director | Sale | 4,578 @ $290.73 | $1.3M | −98.3% of holding | +0.4% | −15.6% | 80 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-10 | BAKER THOMPSON S II | officer | Sale | 4,243 @ $289.76 | $1.2M | −9.3% of holding | +0.4% | −15.6% | 41,485 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-10 | HALL GRAYSON | director | Sale | 80 @ $291.31 | $23K | −100.0% of holding | +0.4% | −15.6% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-07 | Bass Stanley G | officer | Sale | 3,333 @ $288.00 | $960K | −10.8% of holding | −0.3% | −13.1% | 27,620 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-04 | BAKER THOMPSON S II | officer | Sale | 5,818 @ $292.26 | $1.7M | −100.0% of holding | −0.7% | −9.7% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-12 | Clement David P | officer | Sale | 698 @ $298.56 | $208K | −19.8% of holding | +1.5% | −11.9% | 2,832 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-21 | Pigg Randy L. | officer | Sale | 650 @ $286.56 | $186K | −35.7% of holding | −1.5% | +0.0% | 1,173 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-20 | Hill J Thomas | director | Sale | 8,947 @ $273.34 | $2.4M | −54.7% of holding | −6.7% | −8.3% | 7,421 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-20 | Hill J Thomas | director | Sale | 6,885 @ $272.95 | $1.9M | −29.6% of holding | −6.7% | −8.3% | 16,368 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-19 | Hill J Thomas | director | Sale | 35,979 @ $276.01 | $9.9M | −100.0% of holding | −6.7% | −10.6% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-19 | Hill J Thomas | director | Sale | 22,928 @ $275.74 | $6.3M | −41.1% of holding | −6.7% | −10.6% | 32,910 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-19 | Hill J Thomas | director | Sale | 5,254 @ $274.89 | $1.4M | −16.3% of holding | −6.7% | −10.6% | 27,056 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-19 | Hill J Thomas | director | Sale | 3,803 @ $276.17 | $1.1M | −14.1% of holding | −6.7% | −10.6% | 23,253 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-19 | Hill J Thomas | director | Sale | 3,157 @ $273.99 | $865K | −5.4% of holding | −6.7% | −10.6% | 55,838 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-19 | Hill J Thomas | director | Sale | 600 @ $276.59 | $166K | −1.8% of holding | −6.7% | −10.6% | 32,310 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-15 | Clement David P | officer | Sale | 1,500 @ $270.00 | $405K | −34.6% of holding | −5.5% | −9.1% | 2,832 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-02 | Bass Stanley G | officer | Sale | 3,000 @ $265.00 | $795K | −8.8% of holding | −5.8% | −12.3% | 30,953 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
270 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-12 | Hill J Thomas | director | Withheld for tax | 18,969 | 124,634 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-12 | Hill J Thomas | director | Withheld for tax | 18,882 | 143,603 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-12 | Hill J Thomas | director | Withheld for tax | 17,962 | 72,209 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-12 | Hill J Thomas | director | Withheld for tax | 17,287 | 107,347 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-12 | Hill J Thomas | director | Withheld for tax | 17,176 | 90,171 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-12 | Hill J Thomas | director | Option exercise | 22,400 | 113,815 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-12 | Hill J Thomas | director | Option exercise | 24,800 | 91,415 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-12 | Hill J Thomas | director | Option exercise | 21,670 | 135,485 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-12 | Hill J Thomas | director | Option exercise | 27,000 | 162,485 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-12 | Hill J Thomas | director | Option exercise | 26,100 | 66,615 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-12 | Hill J Thomas | director | Option exercise | 27,000 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-12 | Hill J Thomas | director | Option exercise | 26,100 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-12 | Hill J Thomas | director | Option exercise | 24,800 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-12 | Hill J Thomas | director | Option exercise | 21,670 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-12 | Hill J Thomas | director | Option exercise | 22,400 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-13 | Carlisle Mary Andrews | officer | Award / grant | 5,243 | 5,243 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-12 | QUIRK KATHLEEN L | director | Award / grant | 320 | 7,197 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-12 | STEINER DAVID P | director | Award / grant | 301 | 7,490 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-12 | FANNING THOMAS A | director | Award / grant | 301 | 9,921 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-12 | STYSLINGER LEE J III | director | Award / grant | 228 | 12,657 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-12 | Anderson Melissa H. | director | Award / grant | 228 | 2,385 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-12 | HALL GRAYSON | director | Option exercise | 655 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-12 | KENNARD LYDIA H | director | Option exercise | 655 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-12 | HALL GRAYSON | director | Option exercise | 655 | 618 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-12 | HALL GRAYSON | director | Option exercise | 655 | 618 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-12 | KENNARD LYDIA H | director | Option exercise | 655 | 2,112 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-12 | KENNARD LYDIA H | director | Option exercise | 655 | 2,112 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-08 | FANNING THOMAS A | director | Award / grant | 617 | 617 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-08 | OBRIEN RICHARD T | director | Award / grant | 617 | 617 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-08 | Hostetler Cynthia Lynn | director | Award / grant | 617 | 617 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-08 | Shah Mitesh Bansilal | officer | Award / grant | 3,607 | 3,607 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-08 | STEINER DAVID P | director | Award / grant | 617 | 617 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-08 | STYSLINGER LEE J III | director | Award / grant | 617 | 617 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-08 | QUIRK KATHLEEN L | director | Award / grant | 617 | 617 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-08 | HALL GRAYSON | director | Award / grant | 617 | 617 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-08 | KENNARD LYDIA H | director | Award / grant | 617 | 617 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-08 | PROKOPANKO JAMES T | director | Award / grant | 617 | 617 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-08 | Anderson Melissa H. | director | Award / grant | 617 | 617 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-08 | Willis George | director | Award / grant | 617 | 617 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-23 | Pruitt Ronnie A | officer | Withheld for tax | 3,792 | 20,281 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.
As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date
Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793
A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).
| Member | Chamber | Type | Filed | Traded | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-07-06 | 2026-06-02 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-06-09 | 2026-05-15 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-06-09 | 2026-05-01 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-05-11 | 2026-04-13 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-05-11 | 2026-04-24 | $1–15K |
| Michael T. McCaul | House | sale | 2026-05-04 | 2026-04-29 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-04-07 | 2026-03-30 | $1–15K |
| Michael T. McCaul | House | sale | 2026-03-10 | 2026-02-23 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-02-06 | 2026-01-29 | $1–15K |
| Michael T. McCaul | House | sale | 2025-11-10 | 2025-10-27 | $1–15K |
| Valerie Hoyle | House | sale | 2025-09-12 | 2025-06-06 | $1–15K |
| Valerie Hoyle | House | purchase | 2025-09-12 | 2024-10-29 | $1–15K |
| Michael T. McCaul | House | sale | 2025-09-11 | 2025-08-21 | $1–15K |
| Michael T. McCaul | House | sale | 2025-09-11 | 2025-08-21 | $1–15K |
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.