Issued 2026-09-16 at $95.75 · now $95.75 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, VLTO has typically landed between $87.01 and $105.93 — a range of −9.1% to +10.6% from the issuance price $95.75.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
724 overlapping 1 month windows · 2023-09-27 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($95.75) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where VLTO has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $95.75 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $95.75 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $96.23 (+0.5%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $92.48–$99.98
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $87.01–$105.93
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 724 windows spanning 2023-09-27 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2023-09-28 | −19.7% | −19.7% | +0.6% |
| 2023-09-29 | −19.2% | −19.6% | +0.7% |
| 2023-10-02 | −18.9% | −20.1% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2023-11-17 | +17.5% | −0.3% | +17.5% |
| 2024-02-05 | +17.3% | +0.0% | +17.3% |
| 2025-04-21 | +17.0% | +0.0% | +17.2% |
724 overlapping windows · 2023-09-27 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.
$22.6B
market cap
$3.87
EPS (TTM)
23.8
P/E (TTM)
2026-07-28
next earnings
Revenue$5.5B
'20'25
Net income$940M
'20'25
Free cash flow$1.0B
'20'25
Net margin · by yr17.1%
'20'25
ROE · by yr30.3%
'20'25
Debt / equity · by yr0.86
'20'25
Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.
iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 74 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.- DCF (intrinsic)$75.64
- Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 30.7× · n=74$118.63
- Analyst target · range $102.00–$113.00$108.00
- Current price · last close 2026-09-16$95.75
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~3 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
33%
−2.0%
n=3
Feb
33%
+2.5%
n=3
Mar
33%
−2.9%
n=3
Apr
33%
+1.3%
n=3
May
67%
+1.3%
n=3
Jun
67%
+1.7%
n=3
Jul
100%
+7.2%
n=3
Aug
100%
+3.8%
n=3
Sep
33%
−0.9%
n=3
Oct
0%
−11.5%
n=3
Nov
100%
+6.8%
n=3
Dec
33%
−0.2%
n=3
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-17 | Trivedi Surekha | officer | Sale | 986 @ $97.05 | $96K | −10.3% of holding | +1.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 8,565 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-29 | Honeycutt Jennifer | director | Sale | 7,097 @ $101.52 | $720K | −5.4% of holding | −6.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 124,085 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-17 | Honeycutt Jennifer | director | Sale | 7,097 @ $95.00 | $674K | −5.4% of holding | −0.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 124,085 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-01 | Skeete Bernard M | officer | Sale | 300 @ $88.21 | $26K | −5.9% of holding | −11.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 4,760 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-27 | Kapity Melissa | officer | Sale | 7,105 @ $96.60 | $686K | −41.0% of holding | −4.1% | −11.3% | 10,224 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-27 | Kapity Melissa | officer | Sale | 5,096 @ $96.60 | $492K | −33.3% of holding | −4.1% | −11.3% | 10,224 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-27 | Kapity Melissa | officer | Sale | 2,639 @ $96.60 | $255K | −20.5% of holding | −4.1% | −11.3% | 10,224 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-01 | Bystrom Mattias | officer | Sale | 1,000 @ $101.73 | $102K | −3.1% of holding | −1.6% | −27.4% | 31,430 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-29 | Honeycutt Jennifer | director | Sale | 10,646 @ $106.26 | $1.1M | −9.1% of holding | −3.1% | −15.8% | 106,219 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-02 | Trivedi Surekha | officer | Sale | 848 @ $100.55 | $85K | −9.1% of holding | −2.3% | −14.5% | 8,433 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-15 | Beneteau Lesley | officer | Sale | 458 @ $100.84 | $46K | −3.3% of holding | −5.2% | −16.6% | 13,571 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-12 | Bystrom Mattias | officer | Sale | 1,355 @ $99.96 | $135K | −3.9% of holding | −5.3% | −19.4% | 33,007 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-12 | Bystrom Mattias | officer | Sale | 568 @ $99.95 | $57K | −1.6% of holding | −5.3% | −19.4% | 34,362 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-12 | Bystrom Mattias | officer | Sale | 381 @ $99.99 | $38K | −1.2% of holding | −5.3% | −19.4% | 32,430 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-12 | Bystrom Mattias | officer | Sale | 100 @ $99.96 | $10K | −0.3% of holding | −5.3% | −19.4% | 32,907 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-12 | Bystrom Mattias | officer | Sale | 56 @ $99.97 | $6K | −0.2% of holding | −5.3% | −19.4% | 32,811 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-12 | Bystrom Mattias | officer | Sale | 40 @ $99.96 | $4K | −0.1% of holding | −5.3% | −19.4% | 32,867 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-01 | Kapity Melissa | officer | Sale | 10,782 @ $93.58 | $1.0M | −30.3% of holding | +0.3% | −15.6% | 24,760 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-01 | Kapity Melissa | officer | Sale | 5,277 @ $93.82 | $495K | −23.2% of holding | +0.3% | −15.6% | 17,434 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-01 | Kapity Melissa | officer | Sale | 5,061 @ $93.83 | $475K | −22.5% of holding | +0.3% | −15.6% | 17,434 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-01 | Kapity Melissa | officer | Sale | 3,623 @ $93.62 | $339K | −14.9% of holding | +0.3% | −15.6% | 20,712 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-01 | Kapity Melissa | officer | Sale | 1,842 @ $93.62 | $172K | −8.9% of holding | +0.3% | −15.6% | 18,770 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-01 | Kapity Melissa | officer | Sale | 1,051 @ $93.55 | $98K | −2.7% of holding | +0.3% | −15.6% | 37,178 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-01 | Kapity Melissa | officer | Sale | 831 @ $93.56 | $78K | −2.2% of holding | +0.3% | −15.6% | 36,347 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-01 | Kapity Melissa | officer | Sale | 805 @ $93.57 | $75K | −2.2% of holding | +0.3% | −15.6% | 35,542 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-01 | Kapity Melissa | officer | Sale | 627 @ $93.64 | $59K | −3.4% of holding | +0.3% | −15.6% | 18,059 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-01 | Trivedi Surekha | officer | Sale | 590 @ $96.54 | $57K | −5.9% of holding | +0.3% | −15.6% | 9,421 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-01 | Kapity Melissa | officer | Sale | 515 @ $93.54 | $48K | −1.3% of holding | +0.3% | −15.6% | 38,229 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-01 | Skeete Bernard M | officer | Sale | 450 @ $94.40 | $42K | −9.9% of holding | +0.3% | −15.6% | 4,087 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-01 | Kapity Melissa | officer | Sale | 234 @ $93.68 | $22K | −1.3% of holding | +0.3% | −15.6% | 17,564 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-01 | Kapity Melissa | officer | Sale | 193 @ $93.61 | $18K | −0.8% of holding | +0.3% | −15.6% | 24,335 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-01 | Kapity Melissa | officer | Sale | 130 @ $93.69 | $12K | −0.7% of holding | +0.3% | −15.6% | 17,434 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-01 | Kapity Melissa | officer | Sale | 120 @ $93.59 | $11K | −0.5% of holding | +0.3% | −15.6% | 24,640 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-01 | Kapity Melissa | officer | Sale | 112 @ $93.60 | $10K | −0.5% of holding | +0.3% | −15.6% | 24,528 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-01 | Kapity Melissa | officer | Sale | 100 @ $93.65 | $9K | −0.6% of holding | +0.3% | −15.6% | 17,959 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-01 | Kapity Melissa | officer | Sale | 100 @ $93.62 | $9K | −0.5% of holding | +0.3% | −15.6% | 20,612 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-01 | Kapity Melissa | officer | Sale | 84 @ $93.67 | $8K | −0.5% of holding | +0.3% | −15.6% | 17,798 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-01 | Kapity Melissa | officer | Sale | 84 @ $93.63 | $8K | −0.4% of holding | +0.3% | −15.6% | 18,686 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-01 | Kapity Melissa | officer | Sale | 52 @ $93.66 | $5K | −0.3% of holding | +0.3% | −15.6% | 17,907 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-01 | Kapity Melissa | officer | Sale | 41 @ $93.60 | $4K | −0.2% of holding | +0.3% | −15.6% | 22,495 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-01 | Kapity Melissa | officer | Sale | 25 @ $93.67 | $2K | −0.1% of holding | +0.3% | −15.6% | 17,882 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-04-30 | Honeycutt Jennifer | director | Sale | 10,418 @ $95.00 | $990K | −8.9% of holding | −0.9% | −20.7% | 106,219 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-04-01 | Trivedi Surekha | officer | Sale | 590 @ $97.05 | $57K | −5.6% of holding | −3.1% | −11.0% | 10,011 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-24 | Honeycutt Jennifer | director | Sale | 10,414 @ $98.56 | $1.0M | −8.2% of holding | −1.0% | −8.7% | 116,637 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-02-25 | Honeycutt Jennifer | director | Sale | 10,414 @ $100.35 | $1.0M | −9.1% of holding | +1.1% | −2.6% | 104,496 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-02-25 | Trivedi Surekha | officer | Sale | 590 @ $100.35 | $59K | −6.5% of holding | +1.1% | −2.6% | 8,470 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-02-11 | Kapity Melissa | officer | Sale | 463 @ $99.60 | $46K | −2.2% of holding | +4.8% | +3.0% | 20,761 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
140 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-29 | Honeycutt Jennifer | director | Option exercise | 7,097 | 131,182 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-29 | Honeycutt Jennifer | director | Option exercise | 7,097 | 7,098 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-24 | Williams Thomas | director | Award / grant | 183 | 183 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-24 | MITTS HEATH A | director | Award / grant | 154 | 154 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-24 | Wallis-Lage Cindy L. | director | Award / grant | 38 | 38 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-17 | Honeycutt Jennifer | director | Option exercise | 7,097 | 131,182 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-17 | Honeycutt Jennifer | director | Option exercise | 7,097 | 14,195 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-15 | Ralhan Sameer | officer | Withheld for tax | 3,305 | 53,694 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-15 | Kambeyanda Shyam | director | Award / grant | 3,553 | 9,413 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-15 | LOHR WALTER G | director | Award / grant | 1,009 | 3,380 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-15 | LOHR WALTER G | director | Award / grant | 3,553 | 9,413 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-15 | MITTS HEATH A | director | Award / grant | 1,009 | 3,500 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-15 | MITTS HEATH A | director | Award / grant | 3,553 | 9,413 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-15 | SCHWIETERS JOHN T | director | Award / grant | 1,009 | 6,498 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-15 | SCHWIETERS JOHN T | director | Award / grant | 3,553 | 9,413 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-15 | Sankaran Vijay P. | director | Award / grant | 1,009 | 2,669 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-15 | Sankaran Vijay P. | director | Award / grant | 3,553 | 7,823 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-15 | Wallis-Lage Cindy L. | director | Award / grant | 1,009 | 3,380 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-15 | Wallis-Lage Cindy L. | director | Award / grant | 3,553 | 9,413 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-15 | Williams Thomas | director | Award / grant | 1,009 | 3,380 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-15 | Williams Thomas | director | Award / grant | 3,553 | 9,413 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-15 | KING WILLIAM | director | Award / grant | 1,009 | 9,557 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-15 | COMAS DANIEL L | director | Award / grant | 1,099 | 18,509 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-15 | COMAS DANIEL L | director | Award / grant | 3,553 | 9,413 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-15 | Colpron Francoise | director | Award / grant | 1,099 | 3,470 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-15 | Colpron Francoise | director | Award / grant | 3,553 | 9,413 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-15 | FILLER LINDA | director | Award / grant | 1,009 | 12,719 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-15 | FILLER LINDA | director | Award / grant | 825 | 13,544 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-15 | FILLER LINDA | director | Award / grant | 3,553 | 14,905 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-15 | FILLER LINDA | director | Award / grant | 2,665 | 17,570 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-15 | KING WILLIAM | director | Award / grant | 3,553 | 9,413 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-15 | Kambeyanda Shyam | director | Award / grant | 1,099 | 3,470 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Beneteau Lesley | officer | Withheld for tax | 423 | 19,846 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-01 | Chainey Kimberly | director | Award / grant | 2,566 | 38,490 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-01 | Ralhan Sameer | officer | Award / grant | 7,313 | 56,999 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-01 | Ralhan Sameer | officer | Award / grant | 24,774 | 24,774 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-01 | Skeete Bernard M | officer | Award / grant | 1,369 | 5,060 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-01 | Skeete Bernard M | officer | Award / grant | 4,637 | 4,637 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-01 | Chainey Kimberly | director | Award / grant | 20,528 | 20,528 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-01 | Chainey Kimberly | director | Award / grant | 15,396 | 35,924 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.
As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date
Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793
A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).
| Member | Chamber | Type | Filed | Traded | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-07-06 | 2026-06-16 | $1–15K |
| Gilbert Cisneros | House | purchase | 2026-07-02 | 2026-06-24 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-06-09 | 2026-05-27 | $1–15K |
| Gilbert Cisneros | House | purchase | 2026-06-08 | 2026-05-11 | $1–15K |
| Gilbert Cisneros | House | purchase | 2026-05-08 | 2026-04-06 | $1–15K |
| Gilbert Cisneros | House | purchase | 2026-05-08 | 2026-05-01 | $1–15K |
| Gilbert Cisneros | House | purchase | 2026-05-08 | 2026-04-13 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-03-09 | 2026-02-24 | $1–15K |
| Gilbert Cisneros | House | sale | 2026-02-13 | 2026-01-28 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-02-06 | 2026-01-29 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2025-07-09 | 2025-06-23 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2025-06-10 | 2025-05-28 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2025-06-10 | 2025-05-19 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2025-05-12 | 2025-04-23 | $1–15K |
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.