VLRS · TickerCove

VLRSControladora Vuela Compañía de Aviación, S.A.B. de C.V.Industrials · Airlines, Airports & Air Servicesas of 2026-09-16

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $6.32 · now $6.32 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, VLRS has typically landed between $4.77 and $7.76 — a range of −24.4% to +22.7% from the issuance price $6.32.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

3,247 overlapping 1 month windows · 2013-09-18 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($6.32) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$6.32 · 4% of range

$6.15 low$10.63 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-16 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,408 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

53.9%

90% CI 51.7%–56.1%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

−1.2%

typical move · IQR 24.1%

−24.4%worst (p90)+22.7%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

0 buys · 0 sells · 0 members

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where VLRS has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $6.32 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $6.32 (+0.0%)
typical $6.25 (-1.2%)
middle 50% $5.49–$7.01
90% range $4.77–$7.76

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 3,247 windows spanning 2013-09-18 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2020-02-18	−75.9%	−75.9%	+0.2%
2020-02-13	−74.6%	−74.6%	+0.2%
2020-02-21	−74.4%	−75.6%	+0.0%
3 best
2020-07-27	+58.9%	+0.0%	+62.0%
2020-04-01	+57.1%	+0.0%	+69.3%
2020-07-24	+52.8%	−5.7%	+52.8%

3,247 overlapping windows · 2013-09-18 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~13 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

54%

+6.0%

n=13

Feb

54%

−0.6%

n=13

Mar

38%

−6.7%

n=13

Apr

46%

−0.5%

n=13

May

54%

+3.5%

n=13

Jun

69%

+0.3%

n=13

Jul

46%

+4.3%

n=13

Aug

23%

−2.2%

n=13

Sep

46%

−1.0%

n=13

Oct

46%

−0.5%

n=13

Nov

62%

+4.7%

n=13

Dec

46%

+2.9%

n=13

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing
2026-05-28	Donovan William Dean	director	Sale	50,000 @ $7.67	$384K	−1.7% of holding	+21.6%	not yet — horizon still open	2,946,050	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-05-27	Donovan William Dean	director	Sale	50,000 @ $7.54	$377K	−1.6% of holding	+27.1%	not yet — horizon still open	2,996,050	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-05-12	Donovan William Dean	director	Sale	50,000 @ $7.33	$367K	−1.6% of holding	+4.6%	not yet — horizon still open	3,046,050	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

60 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-04-28	Palomo Deneke Joaquin Alberto	director	Option exercise	120,850	0	Form 4
2026-04-28	Aspe Bernal Monica	director	Option exercise	106,461	0	Form 4
2026-04-28	Broderick Andrew S.	director	Option exercise	55,780	0	Form 4
2026-04-28	PHILLIPS MARGAIN Guadalupe	director	Option exercise	98,405	0	Form 4
2026-04-28	Donovan William Dean	director	Option exercise	120,850	0	Form 4
2026-04-28	Donovan William Dean	director	Option exercise	111,550	0	Form 4
2026-04-28	Fernandez Fernandez Jose Luis	director	Option exercise	146,742	0	Form 4
2026-04-28	Fernandez Fernandez Jose Luis	director	Option exercise	106,461	0	Form 4
2026-04-28	Maldonado Yanez Ricardo	director	Option exercise	122,573	0	Form 4
2026-04-28	Pace Stan L	director	Option exercise	120,850	0	Form 4
2026-04-28	Franke Brian H.	director	Option exercise	278,870	0	Form 4
2026-04-28	Slowik John	director	Option exercise	120,850	0	Form 4
2026-04-28	Maldonado Yanez Ricardo	director	Option exercise	106,461	0	Form 4
2026-04-28	PHILLIPS MARGAIN Guadalupe	director	Option exercise	106,461	0	Form 4
2026-04-28	Yanez Ricardo Maldonado	director	Option exercise	106,461	0	Form 4
2026-04-28	Yanez Ricardo Maldonado	director	Option exercise	122,573	0	Form 4
2026-04-28	Beltranena Mejicano Enrique Javier	director	Option exercise	98,405	0	Form 4
2026-04-28	Yanez Ricardo Maldonado	director	Option exercise	229,034	405,712	Form 4
2026-04-28	Maldonado Yanez Ricardo	director	Option exercise	229,034	405,712	Form 4
2026-04-28	Fernandez Fernandez Jose Luis	director	Option exercise	253,203	446,927	Form 4
2026-04-28	Franke Brian H.	director	Option exercise	278,870	3,496,120	Form 4
2026-04-28	Slowik John	director	Option exercise	120,850	312,710	Form 4
2026-04-28	Beltranena Mejicano Enrique Javier	director	Option exercise	98,405	13,965,052	Form 4
2026-04-28	Broderick Andrew S.	director	Option exercise	55,780	97,700	Form 4
2026-04-28	Aspe Bernal Monica	director	Option exercise	106,461	196,414	Form 4
2026-04-28	Broderick Andrew S.	director	Option exercise	55,780	97,700	Form 4
2026-04-28	Pace Stan L	director	Option exercise	120,850	349,240	Form 4
2026-04-28	Franke Brian H.	director	Option exercise	278,870	3,496,120	Form 4
2026-04-28	Donovan William Dean	director	Option exercise	232,400	3,096,050	Form 4
2026-04-28	Beltranena Mejicano Enrique Javier	director	Option exercise	98,405	13,965,052	Form 4
2026-04-28	Palomo Deneke Joaquin Alberto	director	Option exercise	120,850	222,710	Form 4
2026-04-28	Slowik John	director	Option exercise	120,850	312,710	Form 4
2026-04-28	Fernandez Fernandez Jose Luis	director	Option exercise	253,203	446,927	Form 4
2026-04-28	Aspe Bernal Monica	director	Option exercise	106,461	196,414	Form 4
2026-04-28	Yanez Ricardo Maldonado	director	Option exercise	229,034	405,712	Form 4
2026-04-28	PHILLIPS MARGAIN Guadalupe	director	Option exercise	204,866	363,379	Form 4
2026-04-28	Donovan William Dean	director	Option exercise	232,400	3,096,050	Form 4
2026-04-28	PHILLIPS MARGAIN Guadalupe	director	Option exercise	204,866	363,379	Form 4
2026-04-28	Palomo Deneke Joaquin Alberto	director	Option exercise	120,850	222,710	Form 4
2026-04-28	Pace Stan L	director	Option exercise	120,850	349,240	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Resolves in i

28d remaining

2026-09-174% elapsed2026-10-15

Logged immutably 2026-09-17; scored automatically on 2026-10-15 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Congressional disclosures

Seasonality · by month i