VLOValero Energy CorporationEnergy · Oil & Gas Refining & Marketingas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $403.28 · now $403.28 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, VLO has typically landed between $351.56 and $480.71 — a range of −12.8% to +19.2% from the issuance price $403.28.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

4,685 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($403.28) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where VLO has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $403.28 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$351.56worst · -12.8%$480.71best · +19.2%
  • now $403.28 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $417.31 (+3.5%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $387.96–$446.66
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $351.56–$480.71
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,685 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2020-02-21−60.7%−60.7%+0.0%
2020-02-18−57.6%−57.6%+2.0%
2008-09-26−55.8%−55.8%+0.0%
3 best
2020-11-04+60.0%−2.1%+60.0%
2020-10-28+59.2%+0.0%+64.5%
2020-11-06+57.3%+0.0%+63.4%

4,685 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.

$89.8B
market cap
$13.77
EPS (TTM)
22.0
P/E (TTM)
2026-07-30
next earnings
Revenue$122.7B
'20'25
Net income$2.3B
'20'25
Free cash flow$5.0B
'20'25
Net margin · by yr1.9%
'20'25
ROE · by yr9.9%
'20'25
Debt / equity · by yr0.49
'20'25

Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.

iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 22 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.
now $403.28$186.98$419.30
  • DCF (intrinsic)$351.50
  • Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 20.3× · n=22$279.14
  • Analyst target · range $203.00–$357.00$280.00
  • Current price · last close 2026-09-16$403.28

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
78%
+7.5%
n=18
Feb
47%
+0.8%
n=19
Mar
68%
+3.0%
n=19
Apr
47%
+1.4%
n=19
May
47%
+1.1%
n=19
Jun
37%
−2.9%
n=19
Jul
68%
+2.0%
n=19
Aug
58%
+1.2%
n=19
Sep
53%
−0.6%
n=19
Oct
56%
+2.3%
n=18
Nov
56%
+3.3%
n=18
Dec
61%
+3.3%
n=18

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$403$1312026-06-29: 1 insider sale, $2.0M — Fisher Eric A2026-06-18: 1 insider sale, $1.8M — Fisher Eric A2026-05-18: 1 insider sale, $1.9M — Fisher Eric A2026-03-12: 2 insider sales, $95K — Fisher Eric A …2026-03-11: 1 insider sale, $1.9M — Fisher Eric A2025-11-21: 1 insider sale, $1.7M — Fraser Jason W.2025-11: 1 open-market sale, $1.7M2026-03: 3 open-market sales, $2.0M2026-05: 1 open-market sale, $1.9M2026-06: 2 open-market sales, $3.8M↑ buys↓ salesofficer Fisher Eric A — Sale on 2026-06-29, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Fisher Eric A — Sale on 2026-06-18, filed same dayofficer Fisher Eric A — Sale on 2026-05-18, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Fisher Eric A — Sale on 2026-03-12, filed same dayofficer Fisher Eric A — Sale on 2026-03-12, filed same dayofficer Fisher Eric A — Sale on 2026-03-11, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Fraser Jason W. — Sale on 2025-11-21, filed 3 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-06-29Fisher Eric AofficerSale7,500 @ $268.17$2.0M−27.5% of holding+14.3%not yet — horizon still open19,742Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-06-18Fisher Eric AofficerSale7,500 @ $236.90$1.8M−21.6% of holding+33.0%not yet — horizon still open27,242Form 4 · filed same day
2026-05-18Fisher Eric AofficerSale7,500 @ $251.61$1.9M−17.8% of holding−7.1%not yet — horizon still open34,742Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-03-12Fisher Eric AofficerSale200 @ $238.73$48K−100.0% of holding−0.6%+51.0%0Form 4 · filed same day
2026-03-12Fisher Eric AofficerSale200 @ $238.47$48K−100.0% of holding−0.6%+51.0%0Form 4 · filed same day
2026-03-11Fisher Eric AofficerSale8,311 @ $227.69$1.9M−16.4% of holding+2.6%+55.0%42,242Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-11-21Fraser Jason W.officerSale9,933 @ $174.02$1.7M−6.9% of holding−9.7%+25.6%134,196Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

224 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-08-21Walsh Richard JoeofficerGift3,10497,091Form 4
2026-05-07Majoras Deborah PdirectorAward / grant939939Form 4
2026-05-07WEISENBURGER RANDALL JdirectorAward / grant939939Form 4
2026-05-07Majoras Deborah PdirectorAward / grant939939Form 4
2026-05-07Greene Kimberly S,directorAward / grant939939Form 4
2026-05-07WILKINS RAYFORD JRdirectorAward / grant939939Form 4
2026-05-07Mullins Eric D.directorAward / grant939939Form 4
2026-05-07EBERHART PAULETTdirectorAward / grant939939Form 4
2026-05-07Diaz Fred MdirectorAward / grant939939Form 4
2026-05-07Ffolkes Marie AdirectorAward / grant939939Form 4
2026-05-07Reymond Robert LdirectorAward / grant939939Form 4
2026-05-07Reymond Robert LdirectorAward / grant939939Form 4
2026-05-07Diaz Fred MdirectorAward / grant939939Form 4
2026-05-07Greene Kimberly S,directorAward / grant939939Form 4
2026-05-07Mullins Eric D.directorAward / grant939939Form 4
2026-05-07Ffolkes Marie AdirectorAward / grant939939Form 4
2026-05-06Majoras Deborah PdirectorDisposition51130,091Form 4
2026-05-06Ffolkes Marie AdirectorDisposition5112,814Form 4
2026-05-06Greene Kimberly S,directorDisposition51115,469Form 4
2026-05-06EBERHART PAULETTdirectorDisposition51115,664Form 4
2026-05-06Diaz Fred MdirectorDisposition5114,652Form 4
2026-05-06WILKINS RAYFORD JRdirectorDisposition30443,079Form 4
2026-05-06WEISENBURGER RANDALL JdirectorDisposition304112,835Form 4
2026-05-06Greene Kimberly S,directorOption exercise1,38115,980Form 4
2026-05-06Greene Kimberly S,directorOption exercise1,3810Form 4
2026-05-06Majoras Deborah PdirectorOption exercise1,38130,602Form 4
2026-05-06Diaz Fred MdirectorOption exercise1,3815,163Form 4
2026-05-06Diaz Fred MdirectorOption exercise1,3810Form 4
2026-05-06EBERHART PAULETTdirectorOption exercise1,38116,175Form 4
2026-05-06EBERHART PAULETTdirectorOption exercise1,3810Form 4
2026-05-06Ffolkes Marie AdirectorOption exercise1,3813,325Form 4
2026-05-06Ffolkes Marie AdirectorOption exercise1,3810Form 4
2026-05-06WEISENBURGER RANDALL JdirectorOption exercise1,381113,139Form 4
2026-05-06Majoras Deborah PdirectorOption exercise1,3810Form 4
2026-05-06Mullins Eric D.directorOption exercise1,38111,671Form 4
2026-05-06Mullins Eric D.directorOption exercise1,3810Form 4
2026-05-06Diaz Fred MdirectorOption exercise1,3815,163Form 4
2026-05-06Greene Kimberly S,directorOption exercise1,3810Form 4
2026-05-06Ffolkes Marie AdirectorOption exercise1,3810Form 4
2026-05-06WEISENBURGER RANDALL JdirectorOption exercise1,3810Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

'23 Q'24 Q'24 Q'24 Q'25 Q'25 Q'26 Qpurchases ▲ / sales ▼ ($ vol)
MemberChamberTypeFiledTradedSize
Gilbert CisnerosHousesale2026-02-132026-01-09$1–15K
Gilbert CisnerosHousesale2025-09-122025-08-06$1–15K
John BoozmanSenatesale2025-06-142025-05-13$1–15K
Markwayne MullinSenatepurchase2025-06-112025-05-13$50–100K
Rob BresnahanHousepurchase2025-06-092025-05-15$1–15K
Markwayne MullinSenatesale2025-05-122025-04-08$50–100K
Jefferson ShreveHousesale2025-05-082025-04-07$15–50K
Rob BresnahanHousesale2025-04-282025-04-08$1–15K
Jefferson ShreveHousepurchase2025-04-112025-03-13$15–50K
John JamesHousesale2024-09-062024-09-04$1–15K
John JamesHousepurchase2024-09-022023-11-10$1–15K
Thomas R. CarperSenatesale2024-04-302024-04-11$1–15K
Michael C. BurgessHousesale2024-02-052024-01-12$15–50K
Thomas R. CarperSenatepurchase2024-02-022024-01-17$1–15K

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.