Issued 2026-08-13 at $34.02 · now $32.94 (2026-08-13, −3.2% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-08-13 close, VKTX has typically landed between $25.39 and $49.40 — a range of −25.4% to +45.2% from the issuance price $34.02.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
2,814 overlapping 1 month windows · 2015-04-28 – 2026-07-15 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.8% (90% CI 51.6–56.0%, ≈1,400 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-08-13 issuance close ($34.02) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-09-11, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where VKTX has typically landed a month from the 2026-08-13 close of $34.02 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $32.94 (-3.2%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $33.57 (-1.3%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $28.92–$38.23
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $25.39–$49.4
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2015-11-17 | −58.2% | −58.2% | +0.0% |
| 2015-11-18 | −57.6% | −57.6% | +0.0% |
| 2015-11-16 | −57.4% | −57.4% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2024-01-26 | +342.2% | +0.0% | +342.2% |
| 2024-02-02 | +288.8% | +0.0% | +303.0% |
| 2024-01-31 | +278.4% | −2.9% | +291.5% |
2,814 overlapping windows · 2015-04-28 – 2026-08-13 · not cherry-picked
Pending catalysts
- 2027-07-01 — Trial primary completion: Phase 3 primary completion: VK2735 for Weight Management Phase 3 (source, as of 2026-08-14)
- 2027-07-01 — Trial primary completion: Phase 3 primary completion: VK2735 for Weight Management Type 2 Diabetes Phase 3 (VANQUISH 2) (source, as of 2026-08-14)
Public, scheduled events — dated attention, not a prediction of the outcome. See the FDA catalysts page for the historical base rate.
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~12 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Company insiders iOpen-market share purchases and sales by the company's own officers and directors, by filing date.
Last 90 days · as of 2026-08-13 · point-in-time by filing date
No insider transactions on record in the last 90 days.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. Full terms.