Issued 2026-09-25 at $35.56 · now $35.56 (2026-09-25, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-25 close, VKTX has typically landed between $26.54 and $51.64 — a range of −25.4% to +45.2% from the issuance price $35.56.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
2,844 overlapping 1 month windows · 2015-04-28 – 2026-08-26 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Base rate up 53.7% (90% CI 51.5–55.9%, ≈1,391 obs). Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-25 issuance close ($35.56) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-26, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where VKTX has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-25 close of $35.56 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $35.56 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $35.08 (-1.4%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $30.19–$39.97
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $26.54–$51.64
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2015-11-17 | −58.2% | −58.2% | +0.0% |
| 2015-11-18 | −57.6% | −57.6% | +0.0% |
| 2015-11-16 | −57.4% | −57.4% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2024-01-26 | +342.2% | +0.0% | +342.2% |
| 2024-02-02 | +288.8% | +0.0% | +303.0% |
| 2024-01-31 | +278.4% | −2.9% | +291.5% |
2,844 overlapping windows · 2015-04-28 – 2026-09-25 · not cherry-picked
Pending catalysts
- 2027-07-01 — Trial primary completion: Phase 3 primary completion: VK2735 for Weight Management Phase 3 (source, as of 2026-08-14)
- 2027-07-01 — Trial primary completion: Phase 3 primary completion: VK2735 for Weight Management Type 2 Diabetes Phase 3 (VANQUISH 2) (source, as of 2026-08-14)
Public, scheduled events — dated attention, not a prediction of the outcome. See the FDA catalysts page for the historical base rate.
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~12 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-29 | Lian Brian | director | Sale | 148,517 @ $33.32 | $4.9M | −5.5% of holding | −4.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,572,441 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-07-29 | ZANTE GREG | officer | Sale | 21,217 @ $33.47 | $710K | −9.1% of holding | −4.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 212,204 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-07-29 | Mancini Marianna | officer | Sale | 18,217 @ $33.47 | $610K | −4.1% of holding | −4.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 422,760 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-10 | Aubuchon Neil William | officer | Purchase | 4,475 @ $33.50 | $150K | ownership Δ n/a | +0.2% | −18.8% | 4,475 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-01-05 | Lian Brian | director | Sale | 132,454 @ $32.29 | $4.3M | −4.8% of holding | −7.8% | +15.4% | 2,600,246 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-01-05 | Lian Brian | director | Sale | 53,279 @ $33.38 | $1.8M | −2.0% of holding | −7.8% | +15.4% | 2,546,967 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-01-05 | Lian Brian | director | Sale | 41,276 @ $34.22 | $1.4M | −1.6% of holding | −7.8% | +15.4% | 2,505,691 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-01-05 | ZANTE GREG | officer | Sale | 31,961 @ $32.30 | $1.0M | −12.9% of holding | −7.8% | +15.4% | 215,571 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-01-05 | Mancini Marianna | officer | Sale | 31,961 @ $32.29 | $1.0M | −6.8% of holding | −7.8% | +15.4% | 434,890 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-01-05 | ZANTE GREG | officer | Sale | 13,900 @ $33.38 | $464K | −6.4% of holding | −7.8% | +15.4% | 201,671 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-01-05 | Mancini Marianna | officer | Sale | 13,600 @ $33.37 | $454K | −3.1% of holding | −7.8% | +15.4% | 421,290 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-01-05 | Mancini Marianna | officer | Sale | 10,500 @ $34.22 | $359K | −2.5% of holding | −7.8% | +15.4% | 410,790 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-01-05 | ZANTE GREG | officer | Sale | 10,300 @ $34.24 | $353K | −5.1% of holding | −7.8% | +15.4% | 191,371 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-01-05 | Lian Brian | director | Sale | 6,400 @ $35.07 | $224K | −0.3% of holding | −7.8% | +15.4% | 2,499,291 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-01-05 | Mancini Marianna | officer | Sale | 1,600 @ $35.07 | $56K | −0.4% of holding | −7.8% | +15.4% | 409,190 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-01-05 | ZANTE GREG | officer | Sale | 1,500 @ $32.09 | $48K | −0.8% of holding | −7.8% | +15.4% | 189,891 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-01-02 | FOEHR MATTHEW W | director | Sale | 16,000 @ $35.11 | $562K | −10.8% of holding | −17.9% | +8.9% | 132,036 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-28 | Lian Brian | director | Sale | 38,989 @ $35.01 | $1.4M | −1.6% of holding | +4.9% | −15.9% | 2,419,109 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-10-28 | Mancini Marianna | officer | Sale | 6,185 @ $35.00 | $216K | −1.6% of holding | +4.9% | −15.9% | 382,467 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-10-28 | ZANTE GREG | officer | Sale | 6,185 @ $35.00 | $216K | −3.4% of holding | +4.9% | −15.9% | 173,592 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-10-27 | Rowland Charles A Jr | director | Sale | 60,000 @ $35.57 | $2.1M | −66.7% of holding | +0.2% | −17.2% | 30,000 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-07-03 | Lian Brian | director | Sale | 26,889 @ $27.80 | $748K | −1.1% of holding | +19.6% | +15.8% | 2,388,014 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-07-03 | Mancini Marianna | officer | Sale | 4,266 @ $27.77 | $118K | −1.1% of holding | +19.6% | +15.8% | 377,535 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-07-03 | ZANTE GREG | officer | Sale | 4,266 @ $27.76 | $118K | −2.5% of holding | +19.6% | +15.8% | 168,660 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-03-31 | Rouan Sarah Kathryn | director | Purchase | 1,240 @ $24.15 | $30K | ownership Δ n/a | +20.4% | −11.0% | 1,240 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-01-06 | Lian Brian | director | Sale | 175,490 @ $42.68 | $7.5M | −6.9% of holding | −27.9% | −32.2% | 2,385,570 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-01-06 | Mancini Marianna | officer | Sale | 49,115 @ $42.69 | $2.1M | −11.5% of holding | −27.9% | −32.2% | 379,234 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-01-06 | Lian Brian | director | Sale | 19,000 @ $43.32 | $823K | −0.8% of holding | −27.9% | −32.2% | 2,366,570 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-01-06 | Mancini Marianna | officer | Sale | 5,100 @ $43.32 | $221K | −1.3% of holding | −27.9% | −32.2% | 374,134 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2024-11-08 | MACARTNEY LAWSON | director | Sale | 2,000 @ $68.67 | $137K | −4.0% of holding | −30.9% | −60.1% | 47,965 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2024-10-28 | ZANTE GREG | officer | Sale | 49,672 @ $74.56 | $3.7M | −17.7% of holding | −31.7% | −58.4% | 231,381 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2024-10-28 | ZANTE GREG | officer | Sale | 23,082 @ $77.68 | $1.8M | −11.3% of holding | −31.7% | −58.4% | 180,414 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2024-10-28 | ZANTE GREG | officer | Sale | 18,620 @ $75.79 | $1.4M | −8.0% of holding | −31.7% | −58.4% | 212,761 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2024-10-28 | ZANTE GREG | officer | Sale | 15,825 @ $78.69 | $1.2M | −8.8% of holding | −31.7% | −58.4% | 164,589 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2024-10-28 | ZANTE GREG | officer | Sale | 9,265 @ $76.94 | $713K | −4.4% of holding | −31.7% | −58.4% | 203,496 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2024-10-28 | ZANTE GREG | officer | Sale | 7,967 @ $80.65 | $643K | −5.0% of holding | −31.7% | −58.4% | 150,572 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2024-10-28 | ZANTE GREG | officer | Sale | 6,050 @ $79.78 | $483K | −3.7% of holding | −31.7% | −58.4% | 158,539 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2024-10-28 | ZANTE GREG | officer | Sale | 1,206 @ $81.44 | $98K | −0.8% of holding | −31.7% | −58.4% | 149,366 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2024-10-25 | SINGLETON J MATTHEW | director | Sale | 16,000 @ $79.50 | $1.3M | −62.7% of holding | −36.6% | −59.4% | 9,500 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2024-10-25 | Rouan Sarah Kathryn | director | Sale | 11,000 @ $80.89 | $890K | −100.0% of holding | −36.6% | −59.4% | 0 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2024-09-20 | Lian Brian | director | Sale | 119,874 @ $71.15 | $8.5M | −4.9% of holding | −11.4% | −62.2% | 2,305,127 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2024-09-20 | Lian Brian | director | Sale | 96,056 @ $70.43 | $6.8M | −3.8% of holding | −11.4% | −62.2% | 2,425,001 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2024-09-20 | SINGLETON J MATTHEW | director | Sale | 10,300 @ $69.50 | $716K | −52.0% of holding | −11.4% | −62.2% | 9,500 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2024-09-20 | Lian Brian | director | Sale | 200 @ $71.98 | $14K | −0.0% of holding | −11.4% | −62.2% | 2,304,927 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2024-08-21 | SINGLETON J MATTHEW | director | Sale | 5,700 @ $69.72 | $397K | −37.5% of holding | +7.1% | −62.1% | 9,500 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-08-21 | Lian Brian | director | Sale | 1,000 @ $69.90 | $70K | −0.0% of holding | +7.1% | −62.1% | 2,354,927 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-08-19 | Lian Brian | director | Sale | 70,132 @ $65.33 | $4.6M | −2.8% of holding | −3.6% | −62.3% | 2,397,665 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2024-08-19 | Lian Brian | director | Sale | 31,442 @ $66.37 | $2.1M | −1.3% of holding | −3.6% | −62.3% | 2,366,223 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2024-08-19 | Lian Brian | director | Sale | 11,296 @ $67.12 | $758K | −0.5% of holding | −3.6% | −62.3% | 2,354,927 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2024-08-19 | SINGLETON J MATTHEW | director | Sale | 4,509 @ $61.86 | $279K | −22.6% of holding | −3.6% | −62.3% | 15,444 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2024-08-19 | SINGLETON J MATTHEW | director | Sale | 3,047 @ $61.13 | $186K | −13.2% of holding | −3.6% | −62.3% | 19,953 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2024-08-19 | SINGLETON J MATTHEW | director | Sale | 2,388 @ $64.10 | $153K | −17.8% of holding | −3.6% | −62.3% | 11,001 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2024-08-19 | SINGLETON J MATTHEW | director | Sale | 2,500 @ $60.01 | $150K | −9.8% of holding | −3.6% | −62.3% | 23,000 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2024-08-19 | SINGLETON J MATTHEW | director | Sale | 2,055 @ $63.15 | $130K | −13.3% of holding | −3.6% | −62.3% | 13,389 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2024-08-19 | SINGLETON J MATTHEW | director | Sale | 1,501 @ $64.88 | $97K | −13.6% of holding | −3.6% | −62.3% | 9,500 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2024-08-14 | SINGLETON J MATTHEW | director | Sale | 20,626 @ $57.52 | $1.2M | −68.1% of holding | +11.3% | −60.5% | 9,660 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2024-08-14 | SINGLETON J MATTHEW | director | Sale | 160 @ $58.37 | $9K | −1.7% of holding | +11.3% | −60.5% | 9,500 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2024-07-30 | Lian Brian | director | Sale | 65,941 @ $56.95 | $3.8M | −2.7% of holding | +5.2% | −52.7% | 2,404,845 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-07-30 | Lian Brian | director | Sale | 30,417 @ $58.78 | $1.8M | −1.3% of holding | +5.2% | −52.7% | 2,354,927 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-07-30 | Lian Brian | director | Sale | 19,501 @ $57.81 | $1.1M | −0.8% of holding | +5.2% | −52.7% | 2,385,344 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
112 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-01 | Kelly-Gemmell Dorothy Elizabeth | director | Award / grant | 6,333 | 6,333 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | Kelly-Gemmell Dorothy Elizabeth | director | Award / grant | 40,800 | 40,800 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-28 | Mancini Marianna | officer | Award / grant | 31,667 | 440,977 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-28 | ZANTE GREG | officer | Award / grant | 31,667 | 233,421 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-28 | Lian Brian | director | Award / grant | 221,667 | 2,720,958 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Chen Hubert C | officer | Award / grant | 190,000 | 190,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-12 | Aubuchon Neil William | officer | Award / grant | 180,000 | 180,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-02 | FOEHR MATTHEW W | director | Option exercise | 16,000 | 148,036 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-02 | FOEHR MATTHEW W | director | Award / grant | 20,400 | 20,400 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-02 | FOEHR MATTHEW W | director | Option exercise | 16,000 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-02 | FOEHR MATTHEW W | director | Award / grant | 3,150 | 135,186 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-02 | Lian Brian | director | Award / grant | 176,300 | 176,300 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-02 | Mancini Marianna | officer | Award / grant | 41,000 | 434,802 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-02 | Mancini Marianna | officer | Award / grant | 32,049 | 466,851 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-02 | Lian Brian | director | Award / grant | 78,400 | 2,508,620 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-02 | Rouan Sarah Kathryn | director | Award / grant | 20,400 | 20,400 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-02 | Rouan Sarah Kathryn | director | Award / grant | 3,150 | 4,390 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-02 | Mancini Marianna | officer | Award / grant | 91,000 | 91,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-02 | ZANTE GREG | officer | Award / grant | 41,000 | 215,483 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-02 | ZANTE GREG | officer | Award / grant | 32,049 | 247,532 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-02 | SINGLETON J MATTHEW | director | Award / grant | 20,400 | 20,400 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-02 | SINGLETON J MATTHEW | director | Award / grant | 3,150 | 12,650 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-02 | Rowland Charles A Jr | director | Award / grant | 20,400 | 20,400 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-02 | MACARTNEY LAWSON | director | Award / grant | 3,150 | 51,115 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-02 | MACARTNEY LAWSON | director | Award / grant | 20,400 | 20,400 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-02 | Lian Brian | director | Award / grant | 224,080 | 2,732,700 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-02 | ZANTE GREG | officer | Award / grant | 91,000 | 91,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-02 | Rowland Charles A Jr | director | Award / grant | 3,150 | 33,150 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-27 | Rowland Charles A Jr | director | Award / grant | 22,000 | 68,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-27 | Rowland Charles A Jr | director | Award / grant | 22,000 | 90,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-27 | Rowland Charles A Jr | director | Award / grant | 16,000 | 46,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-27 | Mancini Marianna | officer | Award / grant | 11,117 | 388,652 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-27 | Rowland Charles A Jr | director | Option exercise | 16,000 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-27 | Rowland Charles A Jr | director | Option exercise | 22,000 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-27 | ZANTE GREG | officer | Award / grant | 11,117 | 179,777 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-27 | Lian Brian | director | Award / grant | 70,084 | 2,458,098 | Form 4 |
| 2025-07-02 | Lian Brian | director | Award / grant | 48,333 | 2,414,903 | Form 4 |
| 2025-07-02 | ZANTE GREG | officer | Award / grant | 7,667 | 172,926 | Form 4 |
| 2025-07-02 | Mancini Marianna | officer | Award / grant | 7,667 | 381,801 | Form 4 |
| 2025-04-11 | FOEHR MATTHEW W | director | Option exercise | 20,786 | 132,036 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.