Issued 2026-09-16 at $10.03 · now $10.03 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, VITL has typically landed between $7.78 and $12.74 — a range of −22.5% to +27.0% from the issuance price $10.03.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
1,518 overlapping 1 month windows · 2020-07-31 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($10.03) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where VITL has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $10.03 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $10.03 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $9.88 (-1.5%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $8.67–$11.09
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $7.78–$12.74
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 1,518 windows spanning 2020-07-31 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2026-02-20 | −49.6% | −49.6% | +0.0% |
| 2026-02-25 | −47.5% | −47.5% | +0.0% |
| 2026-02-24 | −47.4% | −47.4% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2022-07-14 | +65.2% | +0.0% | +66.0% |
| 2024-04-22 | +61.5% | +0.0% | +61.5% |
| 2022-07-12 | +60.7% | −3.1% | +60.7% |
1,518 overlapping windows · 2020-07-31 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~7 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
33%
+0.7%
n=6
Feb
33%
−6.3%
n=6
Mar
17%
−8.3%
n=6
Apr
50%
+2.1%
n=6
May
33%
+1.2%
n=6
Jun
50%
+2.5%
n=6
Jul
33%
+0.6%
n=6
Aug
71%
+4.7%
n=7
Sep
29%
−3.2%
n=7
Oct
17%
−6.1%
n=6
Nov
50%
+2.0%
n=6
Dec
67%
+4.3%
n=6
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-19 | Van Hoven Reena Chauhan | officer | Purchase | 2,242 @ $8.92 | $20K | +9.5% of holding | +11.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 25,827 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-18 | Flanagan Glenda J | director | Purchase | 6,100 @ $8.33 | $51K | +19.4% of holding | +30.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 37,498 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-15 | Coon Stephanie | officer | Purchase | 5,895 @ $8.42 | $50K | +10.4% of holding | +24.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 62,314 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-15 | Amoo-Gottfried Kofi Owusu | director | Purchase | 2,375 @ $8.45 | $20K | +8.3% of holding | +24.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 31,061 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-14 | Holland Joseph Michael | officer | Purchase | 12,484 @ $8.00 | $100K | +48.6% of holding | +23.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 38,150 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-14 | Cyr William B. | director | Purchase | 6,000 @ $8.52 | $51K | +77.0% of holding | +23.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 13,794 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-14 | Pappas Peter Nicholas | officer | Purchase | 3,500 @ $8.51 | $30K | +4.3% of holding | +23.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 85,169 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-14 | Kennedy Kelly J. | director | Purchase | 2,500 @ $8.40 | $21K | +12.2% of holding | +23.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 22,927 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-14 | McKeon Kathryn | officer | Purchase | 604 @ $8.28 | $5K | +1.2% of holding | +23.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 50,275 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-13 | Ruiz Gisel | director | Purchase | 6,151 @ $8.13 | $50K | +15.2% of holding | +27.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 46,549 | Form 4 · filed 6 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-13 | Post Denny Marie | director | Purchase | 3,000 @ $8.23 | $25K | +18.4% of holding | +27.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 19,312 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-09 | Khoury Karl | director | Purchase | 5,000 @ $18.45 | $92K | +4.4% of holding | −33.1% | −60.8% | 119,789 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | OHAYER MATTHEW | director | Sale | 20,000 @ $20.33 | $407K | −0.3% of holding | −24.8% | −59.3% | 6,321,190 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | Cyr William B. | director | Purchase | 4,750 @ $20.70 | $98K | +156.0% of holding | −24.8% | −59.3% | 7,794 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-02 | OHAYER MATTHEW | director | Sale | 18,400 @ $27.87 | $513K | −0.3% of holding | −25.6% | −67.2% | 6,342,790 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-02 | OHAYER MATTHEW | director | Sale | 1,600 @ $28.33 | $45K | −0.0% of holding | −25.6% | −67.2% | 6,341,190 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-02 | OHAYER MATTHEW | director | Sale | 12,516 @ $31.27 | $391K | −0.2% of holding | −11.3% | −65.9% | 6,361,190 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-02 | OHAYER MATTHEW | director | Sale | 12,484 @ $30.43 | $380K | −0.2% of holding | −11.3% | −65.9% | 6,373,706 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-15 | Diez-Canseco Russell | director | Sale | 16,734 @ $35.05 | $587K | −2.5% of holding | −16.6% | −78.0% | 649,684 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-15 | OHAYER MATTHEW | director | Sale | 5,000 @ $35.25 | $176K | −0.1% of holding | −16.6% | −78.0% | 6,386,190 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-01 | OHAYER MATTHEW | director | Sale | 20,927 @ $33.07 | $692K | −0.3% of holding | −3.5% | −81.5% | 6,395,263 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-01 | OHAYER MATTHEW | director | Sale | 4,073 @ $33.67 | $137K | −0.1% of holding | −3.5% | −81.5% | 6,391,190 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-04 | OHAYER MATTHEW | director | Sale | 5,000 @ $37.78 | $189K | −0.1% of holding | −17.2% | −83.5% | 6,417,070 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-03 | OHAYER MATTHEW | director | Sale | 21,408 @ $31.85 | $682K | −0.3% of holding | −5.2% | −70.7% | 6,425,662 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-03 | OHAYER MATTHEW | director | Sale | 3,592 @ $32.35 | $116K | −0.1% of holding | −5.2% | −70.7% | 6,422,070 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-08 | Diez-Canseco Russell | director | Sale | 5,263 @ $44.11 | $232K | −0.8% of holding | −20.0% | −72.3% | 670,513 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-08 | Diez-Canseco Russell | director | Sale | 4,404 @ $44.72 | $197K | −0.7% of holding | −20.0% | −72.3% | 666,109 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-01 | OHAYER MATTHEW | director | Sale | 23,536 @ $39.98 | $941K | −0.4% of holding | −19.8% | −67.7% | 6,457,934 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-01 | OHAYER MATTHEW | director | Sale | 10,864 @ $40.63 | $441K | −0.2% of holding | −19.8% | −67.7% | 6,447,070 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-01 | OHAYER MATTHEW | director | Sale | 600 @ $38.17 | $23K | −0.0% of holding | −19.8% | −67.7% | 6,481,470 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-10 | Diez-Canseco Russell | director | Sale | 15,757 @ $47.29 | $745K | −2.2% of holding | −10.5% | −65.6% | 686,719 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-10 | Diez-Canseco Russell | director | Sale | 943 @ $47.84 | $45K | −0.1% of holding | −10.5% | −65.6% | 685,776 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-04 | OHAYER MATTHEW | director | Sale | 100,000 @ $50.96 | $5.1M | −1.5% of holding | −21.9% | −65.6% | 6,482,070 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-02 | OHAYER MATTHEW | director | Sale | 100,000 @ $51.98 | $5.2M | −1.5% of holding | −26.3% | −69.1% | 6,627,070 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-02 | OHAYER MATTHEW | director | Sale | 24,441 @ $52.39 | $1.3M | −0.4% of holding | −26.3% | −69.1% | 6,582,070 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-02 | OHAYER MATTHEW | director | Sale | 20,559 @ $51.52 | $1.1M | −0.3% of holding | −26.3% | −69.1% | 6,606,511 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-29 | OHAYER MATTHEW | director | Sale | 100,000 @ $51.13 | $5.1M | −1.5% of holding | −23.0% | −66.3% | 6,727,070 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-22 | Bal Joanne | officer | Sale | 4,796 @ $50.95 | $244K | −10.0% of holding | −17.6% | −56.6% | 43,332 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-21 | OHAYER MATTHEW | director | Sale | 4,200 @ $50.25 | $211K | −0.1% of holding | −16.9% | −57.0% | 6,827,070 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-19 | OHAYER MATTHEW | director | Sale | 800 @ $50.31 | $40K | −0.0% of holding | −8.5% | −50.9% | 6,831,270 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-18 | McKeon Kathryn | officer | Sale | 21,442 @ $49.08 | $1.1M | −36.4% of holding | −11.8% | −51.7% | 37,513 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-15 | McKeon Kathryn | officer | Sale | 12,005 @ $47.59 | $571K | −24.2% of holding | −4.0% | −47.6% | 37,513 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-15 | Bal Joanne | officer | Sale | 9,999 @ $47.70 | $477K | −17.2% of holding | −4.0% | −47.6% | 48,128 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-14 | Post Denny Marie | director | Sale | 6,086 @ $47.75 | $291K | −27.2% of holding | −3.9% | −46.8% | 16,312 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-14 | Wrede Thilo | officer | Sale | 2,793 @ $47.70 | $133K | −4.5% of holding | −3.9% | −46.8% | 58,783 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-14 | Wrede Thilo | officer | Sale | 600 @ $47.06 | $28K | −1.0% of holding | −3.9% | −46.8% | 61,576 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-13 | Khoury Karl | director | Sale | 20,000 @ $47.63 | $953K | −14.8% of holding | −0.2% | −48.2% | 114,789 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-12 | Diez-Canseco Russell | director | Sale | 16,700 @ $46.11 | $770K | −2.3% of holding | +2.6% | −52.5% | 702,476 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-12 | Coon Stephanie | officer | Sale | 10,005 @ $46.15 | $462K | −17.9% of holding | +2.6% | −52.5% | 45,779 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-11 | Pappas Peter Nicholas | officer | Sale | 2,811 @ $45.35 | $127K | −4.1% of holding | −0.5% | −52.8% | 65,430 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-11 | Wrede Thilo | officer | Sale | 1,200 @ $45.56 | $55K | −2.1% of holding | −0.5% | −52.8% | 54,987 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-08 | OHAYER MATTHEW | director | Sale | 5,000 @ $45.25 | $226K | −0.1% of holding | +2.2% | −52.1% | 6,832,070 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-07 | OHAYER MATTHEW | director | Sale | 5,000 @ $40.31 | $202K | −0.1% of holding | +5.1% | −48.6% | 6,837,070 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-01 | OHAYER MATTHEW | director | Sale | 19,957 @ $35.53 | $709K | −0.3% of holding | +44.2% | −34.7% | 6,852,113 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-01 | OHAYER MATTHEW | director | Sale | 10,043 @ $36.42 | $366K | −0.1% of holding | +44.2% | −34.7% | 6,842,070 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-23 | OHAYER MATTHEW | director | Sale | 5,000 @ $40.34 | $202K | −0.1% of holding | +26.8% | −33.1% | 6,872,070 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-11 | Wrede Thilo | officer | Sale | 1,200 @ $38.97 | $47K | −2.1% of holding | +18.9% | −31.0% | 56,187 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-01 | OHAYER MATTHEW | director | Sale | 20,286 @ $39.32 | $798K | −0.3% of holding | −8.0% | −28.2% | 6,858,890 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-01 | OHAYER MATTHEW | director | Sale | 9,714 @ $38.85 | $377K | −0.1% of holding | −8.0% | −28.2% | 6,879,176 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-17 | OHAYER MATTHEW | director | Sale | 5,000 @ $32.25 | $161K | −0.1% of holding | +3.6% | −20.4% | 6,888,890 | Form 4 · filed same day |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
119 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-02 | Holland Joseph Michael | officer | Withheld for tax | 412 | 37,738 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | Kennedy Kelly J. | director | Award / grant | 10,436 | 33,363 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | Ruiz Gisel | director | Award / grant | 10,436 | 56,985 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | Post Denny Marie | director | Award / grant | 10,436 | 29,748 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | Amoo-Gottfried Kofi Owusu | director | Award / grant | 10,436 | 41,497 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | Cyr William B. | director | Award / grant | 10,436 | 24,230 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | Flanagan Glenda J | director | Award / grant | 10,436 | 47,934 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | Khoury Karl | director | Award / grant | 10,436 | 130,225 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Bal Joanne | officer | Award / grant | 500 | 55,843 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Wrede Thilo | officer | Award / grant | 500 | 75,977 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Coon Stephanie | officer | Award / grant | 500 | 62,814 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Diez-Canseco Russell | director | Award / grant | 500 | 706,060 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Pappas Peter Nicholas | officer | Award / grant | 395 | 85,564 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-18 | Wrede Thilo | officer | Withheld for tax | 3,192 | 75,477 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-16 | Diez-Canseco Russell | director | Withheld for tax | 4,798 | 705,560 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-16 | Bal Joanne | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,061 | 55,343 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-16 | Pappas Peter Nicholas | officer | Withheld for tax | 928 | 81,669 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-16 | Coon Stephanie | officer | Withheld for tax | 928 | 56,419 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-16 | McKeon Kathryn | officer | Withheld for tax | 928 | 49,671 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-12 | Diez-Canseco Russell | director | Withheld for tax | 11,886 | 710,358 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-12 | Wrede Thilo | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,240 | 78,669 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-12 | McKeon Kathryn | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,683 | 50,599 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-12 | Coon Stephanie | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,625 | 57,347 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-12 | Bal Joanne | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,586 | 56,404 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-12 | Pappas Peter Nicholas | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,402 | 82,597 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-05 | Bal Joanne | officer | Award / grant | 15,184 | 57,990 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-05 | McKeon Kathryn | officer | Award / grant | 15,184 | 52,282 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-05 | Wrede Thilo | officer | Award / grant | 25,138 | 80,909 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-05 | Holland Joseph Michael | officer | Award / grant | 15,184 | 25,666 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-05 | OHAYER MATTHEW | director | Award / grant | 5,530 | 6,326,720 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-05 | Pappas Peter Nicholas | officer | Award / grant | 19,558 | 83,999 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-05 | Van Hoven Reena Chauhan | officer | Award / grant | 13,675 | 23,585 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-05 | Coon Stephanie | officer | Award / grant | 13,675 | 58,972 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-05 | Diez-Canseco Russell | director | Award / grant | 75,415 | 722,244 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-04 | Diez-Canseco Russell | director | Withheld for tax | 2,855 | 646,829 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-04 | Wrede Thilo | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,769 | 55,771 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-04 | Pappas Peter Nicholas | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,019 | 64,441 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-04 | Holland Joseph Michael | officer | Withheld for tax | 969 | 10,482 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-04 | Van Hoven Reena Chauhan | officer | Withheld for tax | 855 | 9,910 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-04 | Bal Joanne | officer | Withheld for tax | 784 | 42,806 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.