VIST · TickerCove

VISTVista Energy, S.A.B. de C.V.Energy · Oil & Gas Exploration & Productionas of 2026-09-16

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $74.26 · now $74.26 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, VIST has typically landed between $62.26 and $94.15 — a range of −16.2% to +26.8% from the issuance price $74.26.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

1,773 overlapping 1 month windows · 2019-07-29 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($74.26) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$74.26 · 89% of range

$33.7 low$79.25 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-16 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,408 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

53.9%

90% CI 51.7%–56.1%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

+4.6%

typical move · IQR 17.0%

−16.2%worst (p90)+26.8%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

0 buys · 0 sells · 0 members

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where VIST has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $74.26 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $74.26 (+0.0%)
typical $77.67 (+4.6%)
middle 50% $71.34–$84
90% range $62.26–$94.15

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 1,773 windows spanning 2019-07-29 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2020-02-21	−71.4%	−71.4%	+0.0%
2020-03-03	−70.8%	−70.8%	+0.0%
2020-02-19	−70.0%	−70.0%	+0.0%
3 best
2021-09-21	+66.2%	+0.0%	+66.2%
2020-04-20	+63.0%	−2.4%	+64.9%
2020-04-21	+60.2%	−3.8%	+62.6%

1,773 overlapping windows · 2019-07-29 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~8 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

57%

+6.0%

n=7

Feb

57%

+6.1%

n=7

Mar

57%

−2.6%

n=7

Apr

57%

+6.5%

n=7

May

71%

+9.4%

n=7

Jun

43%

−1.1%

n=7

Jul

71%

+8.8%

n=7

Aug

50%

−7.8%

n=8

Sep

50%

+0.3%

n=8

Oct

57%

+13.4%

n=7

Nov

86%

+8.4%

n=7

Dec

57%

+6.4%

n=7

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

27 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-07-13	Galuccio Miguel Matias	director	Disposition	281,186	0	Form 4
2026-07-13	VERA PINTO PABLO MANUEL	officer	Disposition	61,861	0	Form 4
2026-07-13	GAROBY JUAN MARIA	officer	Disposition	61,861	0	Form 4
2026-07-13	CHERNACOV ALEJANDRO	officer	Disposition	56,238	0	Form 4
2026-06-11	Losada German Nicanor	director	Other acquisition	3,900	255,304	Form 4
2026-06-11	Losada German Nicanor	director	Other acquisition	3,900	255,304	Form 4
2026-06-11	Losada German Nicanor	director	Other acquisition	3,900	3,900	Form 4
2026-06-11	Losada German Nicanor	director	Other acquisition	3,900	3,900	Form 4
2026-04-09	Doehner Cobian Mauricio	director	Withheld for tax	2,100	57,528	Form 4
2026-04-09	Losada German Nicanor	director	Withheld for tax	2,100	259,204	Form 4
2026-04-09	Martellozo Gerard	director	Withheld for tax	1,500	37,000	Form 4
2026-04-09	Sivignon Pierre Jean	director	Withheld for tax	1,500	109,500	Form 4
2026-04-09	Sivignon Pierre Jean	director	Option exercise	6,000	0	Form 4
2026-04-09	Losada German Nicanor	director	Option exercise	6,000	0	Form 4
2026-04-09	Doehner Cobian Mauricio	director	Option exercise	6,000	0	Form 4
2026-04-09	Martellozo Gerard	director	Option exercise	6,000	0	Form 4
2026-04-09	SEGAL SUSAN	director	Option exercise	6,000	0	Form 4
2026-04-09	Martellozo Gerard	director	Option exercise	6,000	38,500	Form 4
2026-04-09	Doehner Cobian Mauricio	director	Option exercise	6,000	59,628	Form 4
2026-04-09	SEGAL SUSAN	director	Option exercise	6,000	178,983	Form 4
2026-04-09	Sivignon Pierre Jean	director	Option exercise	6,000	111,000	Form 4
2026-04-09	Doehner Cobian Mauricio	director	Option exercise	6,000	59,628	Form 4
2026-04-09	SEGAL SUSAN	director	Option exercise	6,000	178,983	Form 4
2026-04-09	Martellozo Gerard	director	Option exercise	6,000	38,500	Form 4
2026-04-09	Sivignon Pierre Jean	director	Option exercise	6,000	111,000	Form 4
2026-04-09	Losada German Nicanor	director	Option exercise	6,000	261,304	Form 4
2026-04-09	Losada German Nicanor	director	Option exercise	6,000	261,304	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Resolves in i

27d remaining

2026-09-174% elapsed2026-10-15

Logged immutably 2026-09-17; scored automatically on 2026-10-15 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Congressional disclosures

Seasonality · by month i