VIRT · TickerCove

VIRTVirtu Financial, Inc.Financial Services · Financial - Capital Marketsas of 2026-09-16

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $57.25 · now $57.25 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, VIRT has typically landed between $50.33 and $67.48 — a range of −12.1% to +17.9% from the issuance price $57.25.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

2,851 overlapping 1 month windows · 2015-04-16 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($57.25) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$57.25 · 70% of range

$31.83 low$67.93 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-16 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,408 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

53.9%

90% CI 51.7%–56.1%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

+2.2%

typical move · IQR 12.4%

−12.1%worst (p90)+17.9%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

0 buys · 0 sells · 0 members

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where VIRT has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $57.25 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $57.25 (+0.0%)
typical $58.51 (+2.2%)
middle 50% $54.96–$62.07
90% range $50.33–$67.48

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 2,851 windows spanning 2015-04-16 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2022-04-11	−29.8%	−29.8%	+0.2%
2022-04-14	−29.3%	−30.1%	+0.0%
2022-04-12	−28.8%	−28.8%	+1.9%
3 best
2018-02-05	+68.8%	+0.0%	+68.8%
2018-02-07	+66.9%	+0.0%	+66.9%
2018-02-02	+65.5%	+0.0%	+66.5%

2,851 overlapping windows · 2015-04-16 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~12 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

73%

+4.6%

n=11

Feb

55%

+7.3%

n=11

Mar

73%

+5.5%

n=11

Apr

64%

+0.9%

n=11

May

58%

−2.4%

n=12

Jun

50%

+0.5%

n=12

Jul

33%

−0.8%

n=12

Aug

58%

+2.3%

n=12

Sep

−8.1%

n=12

Oct

64%

+0.7%

n=11

Nov

73%

+6.5%

n=11

Dec

64%

+3.2%

n=11

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing
2026-08-19	GRANO JOSEPH J JR	director	Sale	8,400 @ $60.94	$512K	−19.9% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	33,814	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-18	Gambale Virginia	director	Sale	6,460 @ $62.00	$401K	−27.6% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	16,910	Form 4 · filed same day
2026-08-17	Nixon John	director	Sale	9,094 @ $60.13	$547K	−22.7% of holding	−1.4%	not yet — horizon still open	30,902	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-08	Fairclough Brett	officer	Sale	15,368 @ $50.29	$773K	−26.6% of holding	+6.9%	not yet — horizon still open	42,473	Form 4 · filed same day
2026-05-08	Fairclough Brett	officer	Sale	14,632 @ $49.82	$729K	−20.2% of holding	+6.9%	not yet — horizon still open	57,841	Form 4 · filed same day
2026-05-05	Gambale Virginia	director	Sale	4,000 @ $50.00	$200K	−16.7% of holding	−2.4%	not yet — horizon still open	19,978	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-19	Molluso Joseph	officer	Sale	200,000 @ $38.88	$7.8M	−38.0% of holding	+11.3%	+45.1%	326,585	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-17	Cavoli Stephen	officer	Sale	28,370 @ $38.94	$1.1M	−19.6% of holding	+5.8%	+44.9%	116,191	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-13	Cavoli Stephen	officer	Sale	15,470 @ $38.47	$595K	−9.7% of holding	+6.1%	+42.9%	144,561	Form 4 · filed same day
2026-02-13	Cavoli Stephen	officer	Sale	14,530 @ $38.23	$556K	−8.3% of holding	+6.1%	+42.9%	160,031	Form 4 · filed same day
2026-02-12	Cavoli Stephen	officer	Sale	15,097 @ $37.81	$571K	−8.0% of holding	+5.8%	+46.8%	174,561	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-12	Cavoli Stephen	officer	Sale	14,903 @ $37.41	$557K	−7.3% of holding	+5.8%	+46.8%	189,658	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-11	Cavoli Stephen	officer	Sale	7,057 @ $38.34	$271K	−3.3% of holding	+7.9%	+39.4%	204,561	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-11	Cavoli Stephen	officer	Sale	4,573 @ $39.14	$179K	−2.1% of holding	+7.9%	+39.4%	211,618	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-05	Gambale Virginia	director	Sale	2,950 @ $37.50	$111K	−11.0% of holding	+10.3%	+33.0%	23,978	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-02	Cavoli Stephen	officer	Sale	5,263	—	−2.6% of holding	+5.9%	+34.2%	199,461	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-02	Cavoli Stephen	officer	Sale	5,263	—	−2.6% of holding	+5.9%	+34.2%	199,461	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-01-31	Cavoli Stephen	officer	Sale	19,144	—	−9.8% of holding	+2.6%	+33.3%	176,059	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-01-31	Cavoli Stephen	officer	Sale	19,144	—	−9.0% of holding	+2.6%	+33.3%	194,415	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-01-31	Cavoli Stephen	officer	Sale	19,144	—	−9.8% of holding	+2.6%	+33.3%	176,059	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-01-31	Cavoli Stephen	officer	Sale	19,144	—	−9.0% of holding	+2.6%	+33.3%	194,415	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-11-04	Gambale Virginia	director	Sale	3,875 @ $34.57	$134K	−12.6% of holding	+1.4%	+35.4%	26,928	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-08-07	Fairclough Brett	officer	Sale	90,701 @ $42.40	$3.8M	−100.0% of holding	−11.4%	−18.0%	0	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-05-13	Nixon John	director	Sale	6,965 @ $42.82	$298K	−17.0% of holding	−5.2%	−32.0%	33,923	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-04-28	Cifu Douglas A	director	Sale	89,754 @ $39.13	$3.5M	−28.0% of holding	−2.2%	−37.7%	231,306	Form 4 · filed same day
2025-04-28	Cifu Douglas A	director	Sale	87,807 @ $38.63	$3.4M	−21.5% of holding	−2.2%	−37.7%	321,060	Form 4 · filed same day
2025-04-25	Cifu Douglas A	director	Sale	93,708 @ $38.40	$3.6M	−16.0% of holding	+0.3%	−35.2%	493,479	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-04-25	Cifu Douglas A	director	Sale	84,612 @ $38.76	$3.3M	−17.1% of holding	+0.3%	−35.2%	408,867	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-02-18	Cavoli Stephen	officer	Sale	34,000 @ $37.41	$1.3M	−17.7% of holding	+6.7%	+5.3%	157,703	Form 4 · filed same day
2025-02-14	Cavoli Stephen	officer	Sale	34,000 @ $36.88	$1.3M	−15.1% of holding	+7.4%	+8.0%	191,703	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-02-12	Fairclough Brett	officer	Sale	72,967 @ $36.84	$2.7M	−44.6% of holding	+4.4%	+7.5%	90,749	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

269 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-08-28	Finigan Barbara	director	Award / grant	2,160	2,160	Form 4
2026-08-20	Virtu Employee Holdco LLC	director	Option exercise	200,000	2,690,834	Form 4
2026-08-20	Simons Aaron Wyatt	director	Other acquisition	200,000	200,000	Form 4
2026-08-20	Simons Aaron Wyatt	director	Other acquisition	200,000	200,000	Form 4
2026-08-20	Virtu Employee Holdco LLC	director	Option exercise	200,000	2,690,834	Form 4
2026-08-20	Simons Aaron Wyatt	director	Other acquisition	200,000	200,000	Form 4
2026-08-20	Virtu Employee Holdco LLC	director	Disposition	200,000	2,690,834	Form 4
2026-08-20	Virtu Employee Holdco LLC	director	Disposition	200,000	2,690,834	Form 4
2026-08-20	Simons Aaron Wyatt	director	Other acquisition	200,000	200,000	Form 4
2026-08-19	Nixon John	director	Gift	1,312	29,590	Form 4
2026-08-03	Virtu Employee Holdco LLC	director	Disposition	210,440	2,890,834	Form 4
2026-08-03	Virtu Employee Holdco LLC	director	Disposition	210,440	2,890,834	Form 4
2026-08-03	Virtu Employee Holdco LLC	director	Disposition	210,440	2,890,834	Form 4
2026-08-03	Virtu Employee Holdco LLC	director	Disposition	210,440	2,890,834	Form 4
2026-08-01	Lee Cindy	officer	Option exercise	11,667	82,540	Form 4
2026-08-01	Lee Cindy	officer	Option exercise	11,667	43,304	Form 4
2026-08-01	Lee Cindy	officer	Option exercise	11,667	43,304	Form 4
2026-08-01	Lee Cindy	officer	Withheld for tax	6,452	36,852	Form 4
2026-08-01	Lee Cindy	officer	Withheld for tax	6,452	36,852	Form 4
2026-07-01	Quick Christopher C	director	Option exercise	3,392	0	Form 4
2026-07-01	GRANO JOSEPH J JR	director	Award / grant	2,504	2,504	Form 4
2026-07-01	GRANO JOSEPH J JR	director	Option exercise	3,392	0	Form 4
2026-07-01	Cruger William Frank Jr.	director	Award / grant	2,504	2,504	Form 4
2026-07-01	Cruger William Frank Jr.	director	Option exercise	3,392	0	Form 4
2026-07-01	Gambale Virginia	director	Option exercise	3,392	0	Form 4
2026-07-01	Gambale Virginia	director	Award / grant	2,504	2,504	Form 4
2026-07-01	Nixon John	director	Option exercise	3,392	0	Form 4
2026-07-01	Nixon John	director	Award / grant	2,504	2,504	Form 4
2026-07-01	Minieri Joanne	director	Option exercise	3,392	0	Form 4
2026-07-01	Minieri Joanne	director	Award / grant	2,504	2,504	Form 4
2026-07-01	Quick Christopher C	director	Award / grant	2,504	2,504	Form 4
2026-07-01	Urban David	director	Option exercise	3,392	0	Form 4
2026-07-01	Urban David	director	Award / grant	2,504	2,504	Form 4
2026-07-01	Viola Michael T	director	Option exercise	3,392	0	Form 4
2026-07-01	Viola Michael T	director	Award / grant	2,504	2,504	Form 4
2026-07-01	Molluso Joseph	officer	Option exercise	7,531	0	Form 4
2026-07-01	Gambale Virginia	director	Option exercise	3,392	23,370	Form 4
2026-07-01	GRANO JOSEPH J JR	director	Option exercise	3,392	42,214	Form 4
2026-07-01	Quick Christopher C	director	Option exercise	3,392	61,196	Form 4
2026-07-01	Viola Michael T	director	Option exercise	3,392	124,501	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Resolves in i

28d remaining

2026-09-173% elapsed2026-10-15

Logged immutably 2026-09-17; scored automatically on 2026-10-15 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Congressional disclosures

Seasonality · by month i