Issued 2026-09-25 at $10.66 · now $10.66 (2026-09-25, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-25 close, VIR has typically landed between $8.00 and $13.87 — a range of −25.0% to +30.1% from the issuance price $10.66.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
1,724 overlapping 1 month windows · 2019-10-11 – 2026-08-26 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Base rate up 53.7% (90% CI 51.5–55.9%, ≈1,391 obs). Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-25 issuance close ($10.66) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-26, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where VIR has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-25 close of $10.66 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $10.66 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $10.52 (-1.3%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $9.21–$11.83
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $8–$13.87
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 1,724 windows spanning 2019-10-11 to 2026-09-25. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2023-06-20 | −48.8% | −48.8% | +0.6% |
| 2020-08-12 | −46.3% | −46.5% | +1.4% |
| 2020-08-11 | −46.3% | −46.3% | +1.8% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2020-02-13 | +188.3% | −4.7% | +194.6% |
| 2021-01-06 | +183.6% | +0.0% | +213.2% |
| 2021-01-08 | +165.5% | +0.0% | +198.6% |
1,724 overlapping windows · 2019-10-11 – 2026-09-25 · not cherry-picked
Pending catalysts
- November 2026 — Trial primary completion: Phase 2 primary completion: A Study to Evaluate Tobevibart+Elebsiran Versus Bulevirtide in Chronic HDV Infection (source, as of 2026-08-14)
- December 2026 — Trial primary completion: Phase 3 primary completion: A Study to Evaluate Tobevibart+Elebsiran in Participants With Chronic HDV Infection Not Virologically Suppressed With Bulevirtide (source, as of 2026-08-14)
- 2026-12-31 — Trial primary completion: Phase 3 primary completion: A Study to Evaluate Tobevibart + Elebsiran in Chronic HDV Infection (source, as of 2026-08-14)
- 2027-08-16 — Trial primary completion: Phase 1/Phase PHASE2 primary completion: To Access the Safety and Effects of Intravenous Administration of VIR-5818 Alone and in Combination With Pembrolizumab in Adult Participants With Locally Advanced or Metastatic HER2-Expressing Cancers (source, as of 2026-08-14)
- November 2031 — Trial primary completion: Phase 2 primary completion: SOLSTICE: Combination Therapy for the Treatment of Chronic Hepatitis D Infection. (source, as of 2026-08-14)
Public, scheduled events — dated attention, not a prediction of the outcome. See the FDA catalysts page for the historical base rate.
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~7 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
71%
+44.3%
n=7
Feb
43%
+6.4%
n=7
Mar
29%
−10.6%
n=7
Apr
29%
−5.5%
n=7
May
57%
+4.0%
n=7
Jun
57%
+2.7%
n=7
Jul
57%
−6.0%
n=7
Aug
29%
+1.4%
n=7
Sep
14%
−10.3%
n=7
Oct
33%
−3.1%
n=6
Nov
86%
+10.6%
n=7
Dec
29%
−5.8%
n=7
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-01 | Napolitano Janet | director | Sale | 3,200 @ $9.45 | $30K | −13.1% of holding | +7.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 21,216 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-01 | Sabatini Brent | officer | Sale | 379 @ $9.45 | $4K | −0.6% of holding | +7.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 61,902 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-01 | SATO VICKI L | director | Sale | 22,000 @ $10.05 | $221K | −2.0% of holding | −18.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,078,391 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-06 | De Backer Marianne | director | Sale | 72,559 @ $9.16 | $664K | −7.1% of holding | +0.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 948,145 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-01 | SATO VICKI L | director | Sale | 22,000 @ $9.07 | $200K | −2.0% of holding | +0.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,100,391 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-23 | Sabatini Brent | officer | Sale | 7,711 @ $9.12 | $70K | −11.1% of holding | +12.2% | +11.8% | 61,902 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | SATO VICKI L | director | Sale | 21,800 @ $9.50 | $207K | −1.9% of holding | +0.9% | +4.8% | 1,122,591 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | SATO VICKI L | director | Sale | 200 @ $9.98 | $2K | −0.0% of holding | +0.9% | +4.8% | 1,122,391 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-25 | de Verneuil Vanina | officer | Sale | 13,700 @ $9.82 | $135K | −10.8% of holding | −3.7% | −0.3% | 112,982 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-25 | Eisner Mark | director | Sale | 1,889 @ $9.82 | $19K | −1.2% of holding | −3.7% | −0.3% | 154,024 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-24 | SATO VICKI L | director | Sale | 42,177 @ $9.75 | $411K | −3.6% of holding | −1.1% | +0.8% | 1,144,591 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-24 | De Backer Marianne | director | Sale | 14,762 @ $9.53 | $141K | −1.4% of holding | −1.1% | +0.8% | 1,020,704 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-24 | de Verneuil Vanina | officer | Sale | 3,117 @ $9.53 | $30K | −2.4% of holding | −1.1% | +0.8% | 126,682 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-24 | O'Byrne Jason | officer | Sale | 1,634 @ $9.53 | $16K | −1.0% of holding | −1.1% | +0.8% | 162,615 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-24 | Eisner Mark | director | Sale | 1,616 @ $9.53 | $15K | −1.0% of holding | −1.1% | +0.8% | 155,913 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-24 | Sabatini Brent | officer | Sale | 1,430 @ $9.53 | $14K | −2.0% of holding | −1.1% | +0.8% | 69,613 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-24 | SATO VICKI L | director | Sale | 200 @ $10.26 | $2K | −0.0% of holding | −1.1% | +0.8% | 1,144,391 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-23 | De Backer Marianne | director | Sale | 19,039 @ $7.45 | $142K | −1.8% of holding | +19.4% | +20.9% | 1,035,466 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-23 | de Verneuil Vanina | officer | Sale | 4,445 @ $7.45 | $33K | −3.3% of holding | +19.4% | +20.9% | 129,799 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-23 | O'Byrne Jason | officer | Sale | 2,089 @ $7.45 | $16K | −1.3% of holding | +19.4% | +20.9% | 164,249 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-23 | Eisner Mark | director | Sale | 2,089 @ $7.45 | $16K | −1.3% of holding | +19.4% | +20.9% | 157,529 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-23 | Sabatini Brent | officer | Sale | 1,829 @ $7.45 | $14K | −2.5% of holding | +19.4% | +20.9% | 71,043 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-13 | Sabatini Brent | officer | Sale | 1,530 @ $7.79 | $12K | −3.1% of holding | +28.5% | +11.8% | 47,872 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-02 | SATO VICKI L | director | Sale | 22,000 @ $7.71 | $170K | −1.9% of holding | +25.5% | +7.4% | 1,144,391 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-02 | SATO VICKI L | director | Sale | 22,000 @ $5.93 | $130K | −1.9% of holding | +28.4% | +62.5% | 1,166,391 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-01 | SVF Endurance (Cayman) Ltd | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 191,854 @ $5.98 | $1.1M | −1.4% of holding | −1.2% | +33.0% | 13,728,924 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-01 | SATO VICKI L | director | Sale | 22,000 @ $6.00 | $132K | −1.8% of holding | −1.2% | +33.0% | 1,188,391 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-28 | SVF Endurance (Cayman) Ltd | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 61,493 @ $6.44 | $396K | −0.4% of holding | −9.9% | +24.4% | 13,920,778 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-26 | SVF Endurance (Cayman) Ltd | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 127,938 @ $6.39 | $818K | −0.9% of holding | −7.9% | +29.1% | 13,982,271 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-25 | SVF Endurance (Cayman) Ltd | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 235,971 @ $6.38 | $1.5M | −1.6% of holding | −9.4% | +35.4% | 14,110,209 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-24 | SVF Endurance (Cayman) Ltd | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 227,803 @ $6.15 | $1.4M | −1.6% of holding | −3.7% | +42.6% | 14,346,180 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-17 | O'Byrne Jason | officer | Sale | 6,799 @ $5.56 | $38K | −5.8% of holding | +11.0% | +49.8% | 110,701 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-05 | de Verneuil Vanina | officer | Sale | 2,385 @ $5.16 | $12K | −3.0% of holding | +19.2% | +59.4% | 78,210 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-03 | SATO VICKI L | director | Sale | 22,000 @ $5.64 | $124K | −1.8% of holding | +11.9% | +75.8% | 1,210,391 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-03 | de Verneuil Vanina | officer | Sale | 1,365 @ $5.86 | $8K | −1.7% of holding | +11.9% | +75.8% | 80,595 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-10-29 | SVF Endurance (Cayman) Ltd | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 100 @ $6.49 | $649 | −0.0% of holding | +9.2% | +63.8% | 14,573,983 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-10-28 | SVF Endurance (Cayman) Ltd | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 24,453 @ $6.50 | $159K | −0.2% of holding | +0.5% | +53.7% | 14,574,083 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-27 | SVF Endurance (Cayman) Ltd | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 66,403 @ $6.05 | $402K | −0.5% of holding | +5.5% | +58.4% | 14,598,536 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-10-24 | SVF Endurance (Cayman) Ltd | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 46,696 @ $5.96 | $278K | −0.3% of holding | +3.6% | +66.2% | 14,664,939 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-23 | SVF Endurance (Cayman) Ltd | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 154,383 @ $5.99 | $925K | −1.0% of holding | +0.2% | +77.0% | 14,711,635 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-10-22 | SVF Endurance (Cayman) Ltd | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 144,266 @ $6.15 | $888K | −1.0% of holding | −6.9% | +61.9% | 14,866,018 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-21 | SVF Endurance (Cayman) Ltd | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 109,675 @ $6.30 | $691K | −0.7% of holding | −11.9% | +58.9% | 15,010,284 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-10-20 | SVF Endurance (Cayman) Ltd | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 220,535 @ $6.20 | $1.4M | −1.4% of holding | −10.6% | +63.6% | 15,119,959 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-16 | SVF Endurance (Cayman) Ltd | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 12,844 @ $6.10 | $78K | −0.1% of holding | −4.6% | +83.3% | 15,340,494 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-10-15 | SVF Endurance (Cayman) Ltd | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 16,671 @ $6.07 | $101K | −0.1% of holding | −10.9% | +69.7% | 15,353,338 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-10 | SVF Endurance (Cayman) Ltd | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 2,300 @ $6.08 | $14K | −0.0% of holding | −11.8% | +66.3% | 15,370,009 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-09 | SVF Endurance (Cayman) Ltd | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 249,060 @ $6.14 | $1.5M | −1.6% of holding | −15.0% | +51.3% | 15,372,309 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-08 | SVF Endurance (Cayman) Ltd | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 466,242 @ $6.05 | $2.8M | −2.9% of holding | −15.0% | +55.5% | 15,621,369 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-10-07 | SVF Endurance (Cayman) Ltd | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 72,133 @ $5.60 | $404K | −0.4% of holding | −5.9% | +71.5% | 16,087,611 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-06 | SVF Endurance (Cayman) Ltd | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 73,955 @ $5.69 | $421K | −0.5% of holding | −6.6% | +69.1% | 16,159,744 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-10-03 | SVF Endurance (Cayman) Ltd | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 450,342 @ $5.56 | $2.5M | −2.7% of holding | −4.4% | +61.0% | 16,233,699 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-01 | SATO VICKI L | director | Sale | 22,000 @ $5.84 | $128K | −1.8% of holding | +2.3% | +60.3% | 1,232,391 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-02 | SATO VICKI L | director | Sale | 22,000 @ $4.99 | $110K | −1.7% of holding | +9.3% | +83.6% | 1,254,391 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-01 | SATO VICKI L | director | Sale | 22,000 @ $4.99 | $110K | −1.7% of holding | −3.6% | +40.8% | 1,276,391 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-17 | Eisner Mark | director | Sale | 3,586 @ $5.47 | $20K | −3.3% of holding | −20.1% | +2.1% | 104,618 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-07-15 | Eisner Mark | director | Sale | 6,796 @ $5.47 | $37K | −5.9% of holding | −17.4% | +6.9% | 108,204 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-01 | SATO VICKI L | director | Sale | 22,000 @ $5.10 | $112K | −1.7% of holding | −3.1% | +2.4% | 1,298,391 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-06-02 | Napolitano Janet | director | Sale | 3,200 @ $5.05 | $16K | −16.3% of holding | +2.1% | +4.3% | 16,416 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-04-03 | De Backer Marianne | director | Sale | 79,712 @ $5.95 | $474K | −9.4% of holding | −1.8% | −29.3% | 769,505 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-02-26 | de Verneuil Vanina | officer | Sale | 7,373 @ $9.14 | $67K | −8.5% of holding | −23.2% | −52.6% | 79,460 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
96 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-11 | MORE ROBERT J | director | Other acquisition | 8,000 | 517,917 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-11 | MORE ROBERT J | director | Other acquisition | 8,000 | 40,656 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-09 | Coughlin Timothy | director | Award / grant | 16,000 | 16,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-09 | Coughlin Timothy | director | Award / grant | 8,000 | 16,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-09 | Coughlin Timothy | director | Award / grant | 8,000 | 8,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-27 | MORE ROBERT J | director | Award / grant | 16,000 | 16,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-27 | Napolitano Janet | director | Award / grant | 8,000 | 24,416 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-27 | Napolitano Janet | director | Award / grant | 16,000 | 16,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-27 | Sigal Charles Elliott | director | Award / grant | 8,000 | 39,806 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-27 | Sigal Charles Elliott | director | Award / grant | 16,000 | 16,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-27 | BISCHOFBERGER NORBERT W | director | Award / grant | 8,000 | 21,333 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-27 | BISCHOFBERGER NORBERT W | director | Award / grant | 16,000 | 16,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-27 | Farid Ramy | director | Award / grant | 8,000 | 32,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-27 | Farid Ramy | director | Award / grant | 16,000 | 16,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-27 | Hatfield Jeffrey S. | director | Award / grant | 8,000 | 39,806 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-27 | Hatfield Jeffrey S. | director | Award / grant | 16,000 | 16,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-27 | MORE ROBERT J | director | Award / grant | 8,000 | 48,656 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-29 | De Backer Marianne | director | Other acquisition | 233,532 | 714,613 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-29 | De Backer Marianne | director | Other acquisition | 233,532 | 286,650 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-20 | O'Byrne Jason | officer | Other acquisition | 2,500 | 160,115 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-20 | O'Byrne Jason | officer | Other acquisition | 2,500 | 2,500 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-24 | SATO VICKI L | director | Option exercise | 42,377 | 1,186,768 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-24 | SATO VICKI L | director | Option exercise | 42,377 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-22 | De Backer Marianne | director | Award / grant | 570,000 | 570,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-22 | de Verneuil Vanina | officer | Award / grant | 55,000 | 134,244 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-22 | de Verneuil Vanina | officer | Award / grant | 110,000 | 110,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-22 | De Backer Marianne | director | Award / grant | 285,000 | 1,054,505 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-22 | Sabatini Brent | officer | Award / grant | 25,000 | 72,872 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-22 | Sabatini Brent | officer | Award / grant | 50,000 | 50,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-22 | Eisner Mark | director | Award / grant | 110,000 | 110,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-22 | O'Byrne Jason | officer | Award / grant | 55,000 | 166,338 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-22 | O'Byrne Jason | officer | Award / grant | 110,000 | 110,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-22 | Eisner Mark | director | Award / grant | 55,000 | 159,618 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-09 | MORE ROBERT J | director | Other acquisition | 14,027 | 509,917 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-09 | MORE ROBERT J | director | Other acquisition | 14,027 | 40,656 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-06 | BISCHOFBERGER NORBERT W | director | Other acquisition | 10,667 | 10,667 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-06 | BISCHOFBERGER NORBERT W | director | Other acquisition | 10,667 | 13,333 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-30 | Napolitano Janet | director | Award / grant | 8,000 | 19,616 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-30 | Napolitano Janet | director | Award / grant | 16,000 | 16,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-30 | BISCHOFBERGER NORBERT W | director | Award / grant | 8,000 | 24,000 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.