Issued 2026-08-13 at $8.96 · now $9.00 (2026-08-13, +0.4% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-08-13 close, VIR has typically landed between $6.68 and $11.61 — a range of −25.4% to +29.6% from the issuance price $8.96.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
1,694 overlapping 1 month windows · 2019-10-11 – 2026-07-15 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.8% (90% CI 51.6–56.0%, ≈1,400 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-08-13 issuance close ($8.96) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-09-11, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where VIR has typically landed a month from the 2026-08-13 close of $8.96 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $9 (+0.4%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $8.76 (-2.2%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $7.69–$9.83
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $6.68–$11.61
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2023-06-20 | −48.8% | −48.8% | +0.6% |
| 2020-08-12 | −46.3% | −46.5% | +1.4% |
| 2020-08-11 | −46.3% | −46.3% | +1.8% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2020-02-13 | +188.3% | −4.7% | +194.6% |
| 2021-01-06 | +183.6% | +0.0% | +213.2% |
| 2021-01-08 | +165.5% | +0.0% | +198.6% |
1,694 overlapping windows · 2019-10-11 – 2026-08-13 · not cherry-picked
Pending catalysts
- November 2026 — Trial primary completion: Phase 2 primary completion: A Study to Evaluate Tobevibart+Elebsiran Versus Bulevirtide in Chronic HDV Infection (source, as of 2026-08-14)
- December 2026 — Trial primary completion: Phase 3 primary completion: A Study to Evaluate Tobevibart+Elebsiran in Participants With Chronic HDV Infection Not Virologically Suppressed With Bulevirtide (source, as of 2026-08-14)
- 2026-12-31 — Trial primary completion: Phase 3 primary completion: A Study to Evaluate Tobevibart + Elebsiran in Chronic HDV Infection (source, as of 2026-08-14)
- 2027-08-16 — Trial primary completion: Phase 1/Phase PHASE2 primary completion: To Access the Safety and Effects of Intravenous Administration of VIR-5818 Alone and in Combination With Pembrolizumab in Adult Participants With Locally Advanced or Metastatic HER2-Expressing Cancers (source, as of 2026-08-14)
- November 2031 — Trial primary completion: Phase 2 primary completion: SOLSTICE: Combination Therapy for the Treatment of Chronic Hepatitis D Infection. (source, as of 2026-08-14)
Public, scheduled events — dated attention, not a prediction of the outcome. See the FDA catalysts page for the historical base rate.
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~7 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Company insiders iOpen-market share purchases and sales by the company's own officers and directors, by filing date.
Last 90 days · as of 2026-08-13 · point-in-time by filing date
No insider transactions on record in the last 90 days.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. Full terms.