VICIVICI Properties Inc.Real Estate · REIT - Diversifiedas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $24.53 · now $24.53 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, VICI has typically landed between $22.43 and $26.69 — a range of −8.6% to +8.8% from the issuance price $24.53.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

2,219 overlapping 1 month windows · 2017-10-17 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($24.53) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where VICI has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $24.53 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$22.43worst · -8.6%$26.69best · +8.8%
  • now $24.53 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $24.47 (-0.2%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $23.61–$25.34
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $22.43–$26.69
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 2,219 windows spanning 2017-10-17 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2020-02-18−59.8%−59.8%+1.0%
2020-02-21−58.3%−60.2%+0.0%
2020-02-19−58.2%−59.3%+2.4%
3 best
2020-05-14+50.2%+0.0%+51.3%
2020-05-13+49.9%+0.0%+54.6%
2020-03-18+46.4%+0.0%+56.2%

2,219 overlapping windows · 2017-10-17 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.

$28.6B
market cap
$2.92
EPS (TTM)
9.2
P/E (TTM)
2026-07-29
next earnings
Revenue$4.0B
'20'25
Net income$2.8B
'20'25
Free cash flow$2.5B
'20'25
Net margin · by yr69.3%
'20'25
ROE · by yr10.0%
'20'25
Debt / equity · by yr0.64
'20'25

Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.

iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 29 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.
now $24.53$15.49$146.63
  • DCF (intrinsic)$137.59
  • Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 32.9× · n=29$95.99
  • Analyst target · range $27.00–$34.00$31.00
  • Current price · last close 2026-09-16$24.53

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~9 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
56%
+2.5%
n=9
Feb
33%
+0.7%
n=9
Mar
56%
−4.1%
n=9
Apr
67%
+3.3%
n=9
May
44%
+0.6%
n=9
Jun
78%
+1.7%
n=9
Jul
56%
+3.0%
n=9
Aug
56%
+1.2%
n=9
Sep
44%
−1.2%
n=9
Oct
38%
−0.5%
n=8
Nov
78%
+3.1%
n=9
Dec
56%
+0.5%
n=9

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$32$25↑ buys↓ sales
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

98 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-07-01Douglas Monica HowarddirectorAward / grant15447,780Form 4
2026-07-01Cantor Diana FdirectorAward / grant49066,634Form 4
2026-07-01ABRAHAMSON JAMES RdirectorAward / grant933173,098Form 4
2026-07-01Holland Elizabeth IdirectorAward / grant25266,324Form 4
2026-07-01MACNAB CRAIGdirectorAward / grant50082,164Form 4
2026-07-01Rumbolz Michael DdirectorAward / grant32778,647Form 4
2026-06-01Pitoniak Edward BaltazardirectorGift20,0001,291,210Form 4
2026-04-28Cantor Diana FdirectorAward / grant7,54666,144Form 4
2026-04-28ABRAHAMSON JAMES RdirectorAward / grant7,546172,165Form 4
2026-04-28Douglas Monica HowarddirectorAward / grant7,54647,626Form 4
2026-04-28Holland Elizabeth IdirectorAward / grant7,54666,072Form 4
2026-04-28MACNAB CRAIGdirectorAward / grant7,54681,664Form 4
2026-04-28Rumbolz Michael DdirectorAward / grant7,54678,320Form 4
2026-04-01Holland Elizabeth IdirectorAward / grant24758,526Form 4
2026-04-01ABRAHAMSON JAMES RdirectorAward / grant914164,619Form 4
2026-04-01MACNAB CRAIGdirectorAward / grant41274,118Form 4
2026-04-01Rumbolz Michael DdirectorAward / grant32070,774Form 4
2026-04-01Douglas Monica HowarddirectorAward / grant15140,080Form 4
2026-04-01Cantor Diana FdirectorAward / grant48058,598Form 4
2026-02-24Wasserman GabrielofficerAward / grant5,07141,838Form 4
2026-02-24Payne John W RofficerAward / grant31,724474,365Form 4
2026-02-24Gallagher Samantha SacksofficerAward / grant30,309368,018Form 4
2026-02-24Pitoniak Edward BaltazardirectorAward / grant105,0681,311,210Form 4
2026-02-24KIESKE DAVID ANDREWdirectorAward / grant38,150417,500Form 4
2026-02-23Pitoniak Edward BaltazardirectorWithheld for tax26,9011,206,142Form 4
2026-02-23KIESKE DAVID ANDREWdirectorWithheld for tax6,797379,350Form 4
2026-02-23Gallagher Samantha SacksofficerWithheld for tax4,671337,709Form 4
2026-02-23Payne John W RofficerWithheld for tax4,577442,641Form 4
2026-02-23Wasserman GabrielofficerWithheld for tax1,10536,767Form 4
2026-02-20Pitoniak Edward BaltazardirectorWithheld for tax10,6401,233,043Form 4
2026-02-20KIESKE DAVID ANDREWdirectorWithheld for tax4,488386,147Form 4
2026-02-20Gallagher Samantha SacksofficerWithheld for tax3,554342,380Form 4
2026-02-20Payne John W RofficerWithheld for tax2,827447,218Form 4
2026-02-20Wasserman GabrielofficerWithheld for tax62537,872Form 4
2026-01-02ABRAHAMSON JAMES RdirectorAward / grant893165,318Form 4
2026-01-02MACNAB CRAIGdirectorAward / grant40273,706Form 4
2026-01-02Douglas Monica HowarddirectorAward / grant14839,929Form 4
2026-01-02Cantor Diana FdirectorAward / grant46958,118Form 4
2026-01-02Holland Elizabeth IdirectorAward / grant24158,279Form 4
2026-01-02Rumbolz Michael DdirectorAward / grant31370,454Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

'23 Q'24 Q'24 Q'24 Q'24 Q'25 Q'25 Q'25 Q'25 Q'26 Q'26 Q'26 Qpurchases ▲ / sales ▼ ($ vol)
MemberChamberTypeFiledTradedSize
Alan ArmstrongSenatepurchase2026-07-212026-03-27$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-07-062026-06-02$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-06-092026-05-01$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-06-092026-05-15$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-05-112026-04-13$1–15K
Gilbert CisnerosHousesale2026-04-072026-03-13$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-04-072026-03-23$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-03-092026-02-24$1–15K
Gilbert CisnerosHousepurchase2026-02-132026-01-09$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-02-062026-01-29$1–15K
Gilbert CisnerosHousepurchase2026-01-122025-12-19$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2025-11-062025-10-07$1–15K
Ritchie John TorresHousesale2025-08-202025-07-11$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2025-08-072025-07-01$1–15K

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.