Issued 2026-09-16 at $34.47 · now $34.47 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, VIAV has typically landed between $29.36 and $42.44 — a range of −14.8% to +23.1% from the issuance price $34.47.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
4,673 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($34.47) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where VIAV has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $34.47 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $34.47 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $34.75 (+0.8%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $32.08–$37.42
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $29.36–$42.44
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,673 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2008-10-22 | −62.4% | −62.4% | +3.6% |
| 2008-10-23 | −61.5% | −61.5% | +6.1% |
| 2008-10-21 | −58.4% | −58.4% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2008-12-04 | +116.7% | +0.0% | +116.7% |
| 2009-03-09 | +78.6% | +0.0% | +88.1% |
| 2009-03-05 | +73.1% | −6.0% | +76.9% |
4,673 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
56%
+4.7%
n=18
Feb
63%
+9.5%
n=19
Mar
53%
+0.9%
n=19
Apr
42%
+2.1%
n=19
May
47%
−2.2%
n=19
Jun
53%
+0.5%
n=19
Jul
47%
+0.4%
n=19
Aug
32%
−1.4%
n=19
Sep
47%
+0.1%
n=19
Oct
50%
−0.7%
n=18
Nov
56%
−0.1%
n=18
Dec
61%
+6.9%
n=18
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 | McNab Paul | officer | Sale | 7,509 @ $38.96 | $293K | −20.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 29,162 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-09-11 | McNab Paul | officer | Sale | 3,523 @ $38.98 | $137K | −12.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 25,639 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-31 | Daskal Ilan | officer | Sale | 30,257 @ $36.29 | $1.1M | −45.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 36,165 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-31 | Daskal Ilan | officer | Sale | 26,033 @ $36.29 | $945K | −72.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 10,132 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-31 | SCRIVANICH LUKE M | officer | Sale | 23,911 @ $36.37 | $870K | −37.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 39,598 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-17 | Black Laura A. | director | Sale | 71,000 @ $46.12 | $3.3M | −49.8% of holding | −23.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 71,497 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-14 | Solomon Joanne | director | Sale | 10,000 @ $42.92 | $429K | −13.2% of holding | −20.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 65,924 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-10 | McNab Paul | officer | Sale | 1,595 @ $37.37 | $60K | −10.3% of holding | +6.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 13,876 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-08 | KHAYKIN OLEG | director | Sale | 136,547 @ $51.82 | $7.1M | −10.3% of holding | −9.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,188,798 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-07 | KHAYKIN OLEG | director | Sale | 123,333 @ $51.43 | $6.3M | −8.5% of holding | −5.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,325,345 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-06 | KHAYKIN OLEG | director | Sale | 34,024 @ $54.07 | $1.8M | −2.3% of holding | −10.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,448,678 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-06 | SCRIVANICH LUKE M | officer | Sale | 7,258 @ $53.00 | $385K | −14.5% of holding | −10.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 42,722 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-06 | SCRIVANICH LUKE M | officer | Sale | 3,435 @ $53.00 | $182K | −8.0% of holding | −10.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 39,287 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-05 | KHAYKIN OLEG | director | Sale | 104,552 @ $54.61 | $5.7M | −6.6% of holding | −6.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,482,702 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-05 | KHAYKIN OLEG | director | Sale | 20,238 @ $54.77 | $1.1M | −100.0% of holding | −6.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-05 | Gilstrap Doug | director | Sale | 10,000 @ $55.00 | $550K | −15.2% of holding | −6.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 55,766 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-05 | McNab Paul | officer | Sale | 2,727 @ $54.96 | $150K | −15.0% of holding | −6.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 15,471 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-04 | BELLUZZO RICHARD | director | Sale | 51,110 @ $53.30 | $2.7M | −24.1% of holding | −5.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 160,740 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-04 | Siebert Kevin Christopher | officer | Sale | 8,255 @ $54.02 | $446K | −29.1% of holding | −5.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 20,129 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-02 | Siebert Kevin Christopher | officer | Sale | 7,264 @ $34.78 | $253K | −20.4% of holding | −0.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 28,384 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-02 | McNab Paul | officer | Sale | 3,551 @ $32.89 | $117K | −16.3% of holding | −0.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 18,198 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-26 | COLVIN DONALD A | director | Sale | 25,000 @ $29.23 | $731K | −14.5% of holding | +23.6% | +2.4% | 147,053 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-18 | BELLUZZO RICHARD | director | Sale | 15,775 @ $26.85 | $424K | −6.9% of holding | +33.9% | +19.6% | 211,850 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-17 | BELLUZZO RICHARD | director | Sale | 13,058 @ $26.45 | $345K | −5.4% of holding | +26.5% | +14.0% | 227,625 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-13 | SCRIVANICH LUKE M | officer | Sale | 13,901 @ $26.59 | $370K | −21.8% of holding | +18.9% | +18.4% | 49,980 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-10 | KHAYKIN OLEG | director | Sale | 42,767 @ $27.50 | $1.2M | −2.6% of holding | +12.7% | +22.0% | 1,592,854 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-10 | KHAYKIN OLEG | director | Sale | 20,000 @ $27.51 | $550K | −49.7% of holding | +12.7% | +22.0% | 20,238 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-09 | KHAYKIN OLEG | director | Sale | 73,250 @ $26.25 | $1.9M | −4.3% of holding | +11.5% | +27.5% | 1,635,621 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-06 | KHAYKIN OLEG | director | Sale | 40,679 @ $26.25 | $1.1M | −2.3% of holding | +14.6% | +35.5% | 1,708,871 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-06 | KHAYKIN OLEG | director | Sale | 29,887 @ $26.30 | $786K | −1.7% of holding | +14.6% | +35.5% | 1,749,550 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-05 | KHAYKIN OLEG | director | Sale | 70,000 @ $24.50 | $1.7M | −3.8% of holding | +15.4% | +35.3% | 1,779,437 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-05 | Staley Gary W | officer | Sale | 22,944 @ $23.93 | $549K | −14.4% of holding | +15.4% | +35.3% | 136,267 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-05 | Staley Gary W | officer | Sale | 1,293 @ $23.93 | $31K | −0.8% of holding | +15.4% | +35.3% | 159,211 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-04 | KHAYKIN OLEG | director | Sale | 74,315 @ $26.48 | $2.0M | −3.9% of holding | +15.8% | +39.0% | 1,849,437 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-04 | Staley Gary W | officer | Sale | 18,838 @ $26.14 | $492K | −10.5% of holding | +15.8% | +39.0% | 160,504 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-04 | Staley Gary W | officer | Sale | 3,468 @ $26.14 | $91K | −1.9% of holding | +15.8% | +39.0% | 179,342 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-03 | Staley Gary W | officer | Sale | 20,742 @ $25.92 | $538K | −10.2% of holding | +21.0% | +38.7% | 182,810 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-02 | Staley Gary W | officer | Sale | 17,138 @ $25.82 | $443K | −7.8% of holding | +28.8% | +40.4% | 203,552 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-02 | Siebert Kevin Christopher | officer | Sale | 13,577 @ $25.72 | $349K | −27.6% of holding | +28.8% | +40.4% | 35,648 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-02 | Staley Gary W | officer | Sale | 5,646 @ $25.85 | $146K | −2.5% of holding | +28.8% | +40.4% | 220,690 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-02 | McNab Paul | officer | Sale | 4,638 @ $25.80 | $120K | −17.6% of holding | +28.8% | +40.4% | 21,749 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-10 | Burns Richard John | director | Sale | 3,384 @ $18.76 | $63K | −50.0% of holding | −7.4% | +169.9% | 3,384 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-10 | Corrales Eugenia | director | Sale | 3,384 @ $18.76 | $63K | −50.0% of holding | −7.4% | +169.9% | 3,384 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-08 | Siebert Kevin Christopher | officer | Sale | 24,225 @ $18.26 | $442K | −33.0% of holding | −9.1% | +145.1% | 49,225 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-12-05 | KHAYKIN OLEG | director | Sale | 40,238 @ $17.50 | $704K | −50.0% of holding | +0.3% | +145.3% | 40,238 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-12-04 | KHAYKIN OLEG | director | Sale | 38,438 @ $17.60 | $677K | −32.3% of holding | +4.8% | +169.9% | 80,476 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-12-03 | KHAYKIN OLEG | director | Sale | 35,004 @ $17.10 | $599K | −1.8% of holding | +2.6% | +163.2% | 1,921,191 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-02 | Daskal Ilan | officer | Sale | 105,191 @ $17.43 | $1.8M | −91.2% of holding | +2.8% | +191.3% | 10,132 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-02 | KHAYKIN OLEG | director | Sale | 58,939 @ $17.76 | $1.0M | −2.9% of holding | +2.8% | +191.3% | 1,966,066 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-12-02 | Daskal Ilan | officer | Sale | 39,709 @ $17.42 | $692K | −25.6% of holding | +2.8% | +191.3% | 115,323 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-02 | Daskal Ilan | officer | Sale | 25,100 @ $17.84 | $448K | −13.9% of holding | +2.8% | +191.3% | 155,032 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-02 | KHAYKIN OLEG | director | Sale | 9,871 @ $17.81 | $176K | −0.5% of holding | +2.8% | +191.3% | 1,956,195 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-12-01 | KHAYKIN OLEG | director | Sale | 44,399 @ $17.64 | $783K | −2.1% of holding | +0.7% | +186.2% | 2,066,442 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-01 | KHAYKIN OLEG | director | Sale | 41,437 @ $17.62 | $730K | −2.0% of holding | +0.7% | +186.2% | 2,025,005 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-26 | McNab Paul | officer | Sale | 1,657 @ $18.14 | $30K | −5.9% of holding | −0.7% | +152.2% | 26,387 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-10 | BARNES KEITH | director | Sale | 97,938 @ $18.17 | $1.8M | −78.3% of holding | +4.8% | +185.8% | 27,213 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-10 | BARNES KEITH | director | Sale | 23,529 @ $18.22 | $429K | −15.8% of holding | +4.8% | +185.8% | 125,151 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-04 | COLVIN DONALD A | director | Sale | 23,050 @ $16.98 | $391K | −12.2% of holding | +3.1% | +195.6% | 165,474 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-04 | COLVIN DONALD A | director | Sale | 16,950 @ $17.24 | $292K | −10.2% of holding | +3.1% | +195.6% | 148,524 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-03 | BARNES KEITH | director | Sale | 40,363 @ $17.25 | $696K | −22.5% of holding | −0.3% | +194.2% | 138,721 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
223 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-28 | KHAYKIN OLEG | director | Withheld for tax | 54,413 | 1,324,580 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | KHAYKIN OLEG | director | Withheld for tax | 47,395 | 1,252,009 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | KHAYKIN OLEG | director | Withheld for tax | 45,076 | 1,384,698 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | Daskal Ilan | officer | Withheld for tax | 24,857 | 40,389 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | Daskal Ilan | officer | Withheld for tax | 21,387 | 66,422 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | Staley Gary W | officer | Award / grant | 12,782 | 12,782 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | SCRIVANICH LUKE M | officer | Withheld for tax | 10,096 | 56,041 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | McNab Paul | officer | Withheld for tax | 9,535 | 29,405 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | Staley Gary W | officer | Withheld for tax | 8,676 | 159,024 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | SCRIVANICH LUKE M | officer | Withheld for tax | 7,736 | 63,509 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | McNab Paul | officer | Withheld for tax | 7,527 | 36,671 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | Siebert Kevin Christopher | officer | Withheld for tax | 6,960 | 34,423 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | SCRIVANICH LUKE M | officer | Withheld for tax | 6,938 | 46,296 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | McNab Paul | officer | Withheld for tax | 6,553 | 20,201 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | Staley Gary W | officer | Withheld for tax | 6,468 | 168,993 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | Staley Gary W | officer | Withheld for tax | 5,962 | 145,654 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | Siebert Kevin Christopher | officer | Withheld for tax | 5,190 | 40,739 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | Siebert Kevin Christopher | officer | Withheld for tax | 4,784 | 25,951 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | Petrucci Anthony Michael | officer | Withheld for tax | 3,002 | 21,671 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | KHAYKIN OLEG | director | Award / grant | 92,963 | 92,963 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | KHAYKIN OLEG | director | Award / grant | 139,444 | 139,444 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | KHAYKIN OLEG | director | Option exercise | 126,984 | 1,378,993 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | KHAYKIN OLEG | director | Option exercise | 110,606 | 1,299,404 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | McNab Paul | officer | Option exercise | 12,878 | 26,754 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | McNab Paul | officer | Option exercise | 18,739 | 38,940 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | McNab Paul | officer | Option exercise | 14,793 | 44,198 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | McNab Paul | officer | Option exercise | 12,878 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | McNab Paul | officer | Option exercise | 18,739 | 18,738 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | McNab Paul | officer | Option exercise | 14,793 | 29,585 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | McNab Paul | officer | Award / grant | 11,039 | 11,039 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | Petrucci Anthony Michael | officer | Option exercise | 12,328 | 24,654 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | Petrucci Anthony Michael | officer | Award / grant | 11,039 | 11,039 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | Petrucci Anthony Michael | officer | Option exercise | 12,328 | 24,673 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | SCRIVANICH LUKE M | officer | Option exercise | 15,204 | 71,245 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | SCRIVANICH LUKE M | officer | Option exercise | 15,204 | 30,407 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | SCRIVANICH LUKE M | officer | Award / grant | 11,039 | 11,039 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | SCRIVANICH LUKE M | officer | Option exercise | 13,636 | 53,234 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | SCRIVANICH LUKE M | officer | Option exercise | 19,841 | 66,137 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | SCRIVANICH LUKE M | officer | Option exercise | 13,636 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | SCRIVANICH LUKE M | officer | Option exercise | 19,841 | 19,841 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.
As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date
Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793
A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).
| Member | Chamber | Type | Filed | Traded | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gilbert Cisneros | House | sale | 2026-06-08 | 2026-05-04 | $1–15K |
| Gilbert Cisneros | House | sale | 2026-04-07 | 2026-03-27 | $1–15K |
| Gilbert Cisneros | House | sale | 2026-04-07 | 2026-03-09 | $1–15K |
| Gilbert Cisneros | House | sale | 2025-12-15 | 2025-11-13 | $1–15K |
| Josh Gottheimer | House | purchase | 2024-08-15 | 2024-07-19 | $1–15K |
| Josh Gottheimer | House | sale | 2024-07-09 | 2024-06-18 | $1–15K |
| Josh Gottheimer | House | purchase | 2023-11-11 | 2023-10-16 | $1–15K |
| Josh Gottheimer | House | sale | 2023-10-15 | 2023-09-15 | $1–15K |
| Thomas R. Carper | Senate | sale | 2021-02-01 | 2021-01-25 | $1–15K |
| Thomas R. Carper | Senate | purchase | 2020-12-02 | 2020-11-20 | $1–15K |
| Gilbert Cisneros | House | purchase | 2020-11-05 | 2020-10-29 | $1–15K |
| Gilbert Cisneros | House | purchase | 2020-09-14 | 2020-08-12 | $1–15K |
| Gilbert Cisneros | House | purchase | 2020-06-16 | 2020-05-15 | $1–15K |
| Gilbert Cisneros | House | purchase | 2020-06-16 | 2020-05-11 | $1–15K |
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.