Issued 2026-09-16 at $16.48 · now $16.48 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, VHI has typically landed between $13.29 and $20.85 — a range of −19.4% to +26.5% from the issuance price $16.48.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($16.48) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where VHI has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $16.48 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $16.48 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $16.32 (-1.0%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $14.73–$17.9
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $13.29–$20.85
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2008-09-29 | −58.7% | −58.7% | +9.2% |
| 2008-09-30 | −57.5% | −62.2% | +0.0% |
| 2008-09-26 | −57.4% | −57.4% | +2.9% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2008-10-28 | +97.2% | +0.0% | +119.7% |
| 2009-07-06 | +95.5% | −4.3% | +104.5% |
| 2018-12-19 | +87.8% | −2.8% | +94.4% |
5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-11 | Hanley Bryan A. | officer | Purchase | 250 @ $17.50 | $4K | +10.0% of holding | −5.3% | −25.3% | 2,750 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
12 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-21 | Feehan Loretta J. | director | Award / grant | 3,150 | 10,641 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-21 | Norris Gina A. | director | Award / grant | 3,150 | 5,450 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-21 | BARRY THOMAS E | director | Award / grant | 3,150 | 14,682 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-21 | Tidlund Mary A. | director | Award / grant | 3,150 | 10,391 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-21 | Herrington Terri | director | Award / grant | 3,150 | 10,058 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-21 | Hill Randy L | director | Award / grant | 3,150 | 3,150 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-22 | Feehan Loretta J. | director | Award / grant | 1,250 | 7,491 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-22 | Tidlund Mary A. | director | Award / grant | 1,250 | 7,241 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-22 | Norris Gina A. | director | Award / grant | 1,250 | 2,300 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-22 | BARRY THOMAS E | director | Award / grant | 1,250 | 11,532 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-22 | Herrington Terri | director | Award / grant | 1,250 | 6,908 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-22 | MCILROY W HAYDEN | director | Award / grant | 1,250 | 9,283 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.