Issued 2026-09-16 at $1.34 · now $1.34 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, VGAS has typically landed between $0.95 and $1.81 — a range of −29.5% to +34.7% from the issuance price $1.34.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
1,222 overlapping 1 month windows · 2021-10-04 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($1.34) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where VGAS has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $1.34 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $1.34 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $1.34 (+0.0%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $1.24–$1.44
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $0.945–$1.81
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2023-02-23 | −57.8% | −59.3% | +0.0% |
| 2023-06-12 | −56.6% | −56.6% | +2.2% |
| 2023-06-13 | −56.5% | −57.5% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2024-01-18 | +154.8% | +0.0% | +154.8% |
| 2023-05-10 | +154.2% | −5.5% | +168.6% |
| 2024-01-19 | +150.2% | +0.0% | +153.6% |
1,222 overlapping windows · 2021-10-04 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~5 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-29 | Diamondback Energy, Inc. | director | Purchase | 12,500,000 @ $4.00 | $50.0M | +625.0% of holding | +14.1% | −25.3% | 14,500,000 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
17 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-13 | Burdette George W. III | officer | Award / grant | 347,826 | 347,826 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-13 | DOYLE JOHN R. | officer | Award / grant | 347,826 | 347,826 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-13 | HEBERT CURTIS L JR | director | Award / grant | 137,855 | 156,187 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-13 | Hulme Ron | director | Award / grant | 176,986 | 202,817 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-13 | Palmer Duncan | director | Award / grant | 155,246 | 176,911 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-13 | Siegler Jonathan A | director | Award / grant | 137,855 | 158,687 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-13 | vant Hoff Graham | director | Award / grant | 150,899 | 169,231 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-02 | HEBERT CURTIS L JR | director | Award / grant | 71,655 | 71,655 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-02 | vant Hoff Graham | director | Award / grant | 81,426 | 81,426 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-02 | Burdette George W. III | officer | Award / grant | 390,845 | 390,845 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-02 | ST. CLAIRE DAIL | director | Award / grant | 71,655 | 71,655 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-02 | Palmer Duncan | director | Award / grant | 84,683 | 84,683 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-02 | MILLER ERNEST B. | officer | Award / grant | 579,102 | 579,102 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-02 | Siegler Jonathan A | director | Award / grant | 71,655 | 71,655 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-02 | DEKKER MARTIJN | director | Award / grant | 71,655 | 71,655 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-02 | DOYLE JOHN R. | officer | Award / grant | 390,845 | 390,845 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-02 | Hulme Ron | director | Award / grant | 100,968 | 100,968 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.