VFCV.F. Corporationas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $12.73 · now $12.73 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, VFC has typically landed between $10.05 and $15.39 — a range of −21.1% to +20.9% from the issuance price $12.73.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

4,673 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($12.73) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where VFC has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $12.73 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$10.05worst · -21.1%$15.39best · +20.9%
  • now $12.73 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $12.6 (-1.0%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $11.5–$13.7
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $10.05–$15.39
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,673 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2025-03-05−49.9%−49.9%+0.0%
2020-02-21−44.7%−44.7%+0.0%
2025-03-10−44.0%−44.0%+0.0%
3 best
2025-04-16+43.4%+0.0%+45.1%
2008-11-19+41.2%+0.0%+43.0%
2024-07-10+39.6%+0.0%+39.6%

4,673 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
44%
+0.0%
n=18
Feb
53%
+0.0%
n=19
Mar
58%
−2.5%
n=19
Apr
58%
+0.5%
n=19
May
32%
−3.6%
n=19
Jun
53%
+1.1%
n=19
Jul
79%
+5.8%
n=19
Aug
53%
+0.5%
n=19
Sep
58%
−0.2%
n=19
Oct
39%
−2.0%
n=18
Nov
67%
+5.6%
n=18
Dec
67%
+1.1%
n=18

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$21$122026-08-13: 1 insider purchase, $295K — Carucci Richard2026-07-31: 1 insider purchase, $493K — Darrell Bracken2026-06-09: 1 insider purchase, $515K — Carucci Richard2026-02-10: 1 insider sale, $142K — CHUGG JULIANA L2026-02: 1 open-market sale, $142K2026-06: 1 open-market purchase, $515K2026-07: 1 open-market purchase, $493K2026-08: 1 open-market purchase, $295K↑ buys↓ salesdirector Carucci Richard — Purchase on 2026-08-13, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Darrell Bracken — Purchase on 2026-07-31, filed 3 days after the tradedirector Carucci Richard — Purchase on 2026-06-09, filed 1 day after the tradedirector CHUGG JULIANA L — Sale on 2026-02-10, filed 2 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-08-13Carucci RicharddirectorPurchase20,000 @ $14.73$295K+5.9% of holding−9.1%not yet — horizon still open356,215Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-07-31Darrell BrackendirectorPurchase32,894 @ $14.98$493K+2.4% of holding−25.6%not yet — horizon still open1,402,109Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-06-09Carucci RicharddirectorPurchase30,000 @ $17.17$515K+9.8% of holding−3.6%not yet — horizon still open336,043Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-10CHUGG JULIANA LdirectorSale6,678 @ $21.30$142K−99.4% of holding−20.6%−45.7%40Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-05-23Darrell BrackendirectorPurchase85,840 @ $11.73$1.0M+41.0% of holding−9.1%+22.3%295,406Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-05-23Carucci RicharddirectorPurchase50,000 @ $12.05$603K+21.7% of holding−9.1%+22.3%280,282Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-05-23Dalmia AbhishekofficerPurchase50,000 @ $11.78$589K+15.1% of holding−9.1%+22.3%380,614Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

80 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-06-26Carucci RicharddirectorAward / grant4,318100,114Form 4
2026-06-26Shattock Matthew JdirectorAward / grant1,79943,408Form 4
2026-06-26HOPLAMAZIAN MARK SAMUELdirectorAward / grant1,43930,808Form 4
2026-06-04Darrell BrackendirectorWithheld for tax36,4461,363,924Form 4
2026-06-04Hyder BrentofficerWithheld for tax20,405972,778Form 4
2026-06-04Dalmia AbhishekofficerWithheld for tax11,351665,707Form 4
2026-06-04Vogel Paul AaronofficerWithheld for tax10,246385,464Form 4
2026-06-04Sim Jennifer S.officerWithheld for tax4,091191,465Form 4
2026-06-04Phillips Michael EdwardofficerWithheld for tax1,61355,658Form 4
2026-05-28Dalmia AbhishekofficerWithheld for tax36,750677,058Form 4
2026-05-28Phillips Michael EdwardofficerWithheld for tax94157,271Form 4
2026-05-22Darrell BrackendirectorAward / grant395,2101,400,370Form 4
2026-05-22Dalmia AbhishekofficerAward / grant161,677713,808Form 4
2026-05-22Hyder BrentofficerAward / grant143,713993,183Form 4
2026-05-22Vogel Paul AaronofficerAward / grant107,785395,710Form 4
2026-05-22Sim Jennifer S.officerAward / grant71,857195,556Form 4
2026-05-22Phillips Michael EdwardofficerAward / grant20,95958,212Form 4
2026-05-22Lang Laura WdirectorAward / grant11,97753,934Form 4
2026-05-22CHO ALEXdirectorAward / grant11,97740,147Form 4
2026-05-22CHUGG JULIANA LdirectorAward / grant11,977107,379Form 4
2026-05-22Carucci RicharddirectorAward / grant11,977306,043Form 4
2026-05-22EDWARDS TREVOR AdirectorAward / grant11,97735,462Form 4
2026-05-22GROSSMAN MINDY FdirectorAward / grant11,97731,823Form 4
2026-05-22HOPLAMAZIAN MARK SAMUELdirectorAward / grant11,97767,158Form 4
2026-05-22OTIS CLARENCE JRdirectorAward / grant11,97768,283Form 4
2026-05-22Roberts Carol LdirectorAward / grant11,97747,458Form 4
2026-05-22Shattock Matthew JdirectorAward / grant11,97752,325Form 4
2026-05-22Tanner KirkdirectorAward / grant11,97731,823Form 4
2026-05-22Phillips Michael EdwardofficerWithheld for tax32337,253Form 4
2026-05-22Darrell BrackendirectorAward / grant547,306547,306Form 4
2026-05-22Sim Jennifer S.officerAward / grant99,51199,511Form 4
2026-05-22Hyder BrentofficerAward / grant199,021199,021Form 4
2026-05-22Dalmia AbhishekofficerAward / grant223,898223,898Form 4
2026-05-22Vogel Paul AaronofficerAward / grant149,266149,266Form 4
2026-03-27Carucci RicharddirectorAward / grant4,57395,327Form 4
2026-03-27Shattock Matthew JdirectorAward / grant1,90541,403Form 4
2026-03-27HOPLAMAZIAN MARK SAMUELdirectorAward / grant1,52429,225Form 4
2025-12-26Carucci RicharddirectorAward / grant4,05490,288Form 4
2025-12-26HOPLAMAZIAN MARK SAMUELdirectorAward / grant1,68927,559Form 4
2025-12-26Shattock Matthew JdirectorAward / grant1,68939,292Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

'24 Q'25 Qpurchases ▲ / sales ▼ ($ vol)
MemberChamberTypeFiledTradedSize
Dan NewhouseHousesale2025-05-162025-04-11$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2024-05-062024-04-26$1–15K
Dan NewhouseHousepurchase2024-04-252024-04-10$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2024-04-052024-03-25$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2023-09-062023-08-03$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2023-06-122023-05-19$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2023-06-122023-05-23$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2023-06-122023-05-04$1–15K
Dan NewhouseHousepurchase2023-05-262023-04-26$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2023-05-082023-04-25$1–15K
Daniel GoldmanHousesale2023-02-242023-01-31$50–100K
Shelley Moore CapitoSenatesale2023-01-172022-12-15$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2023-01-062022-12-27$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2023-01-062022-12-27$1–15K

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.