Issued 2026-09-16 at $12.58 · now $12.58 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, VERX has typically landed between $9.83 and $15.55 — a range of −21.8% to +23.6% from the issuance price $12.58.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
1,520 overlapping 1 month windows · 2020-07-29 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($12.58) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where VERX has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $12.58 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $12.58 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $12.67 (+0.7%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $11.58–$13.76
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $9.83–$15.55
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 1,520 windows spanning 2020-07-29 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2025-02-06 | −46.2% | −46.2% | +0.0% |
| 2025-01-29 | −44.4% | −44.4% | +0.1% |
| 2025-01-31 | −44.2% | −44.4% | +0.7% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2023-03-07 | +47.0% | +0.0% | +47.0% |
| 2023-03-06 | +43.8% | +0.0% | +43.8% |
| 2022-07-14 | +42.0% | +0.0% | +42.0% |
1,520 overlapping windows · 2020-07-29 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~7 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
17%
−5.0%
n=6
Feb
33%
−3.8%
n=6
Mar
50%
−0.1%
n=6
Apr
33%
−0.7%
n=6
May
50%
−0.3%
n=6
Jun
50%
−1.7%
n=6
Jul
50%
+1.4%
n=6
Aug
71%
+4.7%
n=7
Sep
14%
−4.3%
n=7
Oct
83%
+8.4%
n=6
Nov
50%
+3.3%
n=6
Dec
33%
+0.9%
n=6
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-28 | DeStefano David | director | Sale | 6,460 @ $12.75 | $82K | −3.2% of holding | −8.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 197,572 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-09 | ITEM SECOND IRR. TRUST FBO KYLE R. WESTPHAL u/a of JEFFREY R. WESTPHAL dated October 5, 2001 | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 10,000 @ $15.05 | $150K | −0.8% of holding | −22.3% | −27.0% | 1,221,100 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-23 | Young Christopher David | director | Purchase | 60,000 @ $12.18 | $731K | ownership Δ n/a | +3.9% | +1.2% | 60,000 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-20 | ANDERSEN ERIC C. | director | Purchase | 40,000 @ $12.91 | $516K | +36.3% of holding | +7.2% | −5.9% | 150,341 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-17 | Westphal Jeffrey | other | Purchase | 150,000 @ $12.53 | $1.9M | +60.5% of holding | +8.2% | −9.0% | 397,740 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-13 | Westphal Jeffrey | other | Purchase | 247,740 @ $13.08 | $3.2M | ownership Δ n/a | +5.1% | −16.1% | 247,740 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-24 | ITEM SECOND IRR. TRUST FBO ANNE MARIE WESTPHAL u/a of JEFFREY R. WESTPHAL dated October 5, 2001 | other | Sale | 14,425 @ $35.24 | $508K | −7.7% of holding | −6.2% | −56.2% | 173,074 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-06-23 | ITEM SECOND IRR. TRUST FBO ANNE MARIE WESTPHAL u/a of JEFFREY R. WESTPHAL dated October 5, 2001 | other | Sale | 510 @ $35.00 | $18K | −0.3% of holding | −3.0% | −56.8% | 187,499 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-06-20 | ITEM SECOND IRR. TRUST FBO ANNE MARIE WESTPHAL u/a of JEFFREY R. WESTPHAL dated October 5, 2001 | other | Sale | 8,832 @ $35.12 | $310K | −4.5% of holding | −1.8% | −54.9% | 188,009 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-18 | ITEM SECOND IRR. TRUST FBO ANNE MARIE WESTPHAL u/a of JEFFREY R. WESTPHAL dated October 5, 2001 | other | Sale | 157,874 @ $35.93 | $5.7M | −44.5% of holding | −7.4% | −55.4% | 196,841 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-06-17 | ITEM SECOND IRR. TRUST FBO ANNE MARIE WESTPHAL u/a of JEFFREY R. WESTPHAL dated October 5, 2001 | other | Sale | 145,111 @ $37.16 | $5.4M | −29.0% of holding | −10.3% | −58.4% | 354,715 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-06-16 | ITEM SECOND IRR. TRUST FBO ANNE MARIE WESTPHAL u/a of JEFFREY R. WESTPHAL dated October 5, 2001 | other | Sale | 78,248 @ $36.87 | $2.9M | −13.5% of holding | −8.7% | −61.0% | 499,826 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-09 | Westphal Jeffrey | other | Sale | 1,514,000 @ $38.45 | $58.2M | −100.0% of holding | −16.5% | −67.1% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-09 | Westphal Jeffrey | other | Sale | 1,153,756 @ $38.45 | $44.4M | −100.0% of holding | −16.5% | −67.1% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-09 | Westphal Jeffrey | other | Sale | 332,244 @ $38.45 | $12.8M | −100.0% of holding | −16.5% | −67.1% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-13 | DeStefano David | director | Sale | 58,844 @ $38.06 | $2.2M | −5.2% of holding | −5.9% | −65.2% | 1,066,587 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-13 | DeStefano David | director | Sale | 50,571 @ $37.27 | $1.9M | −4.3% of holding | −5.9% | −65.2% | 1,125,431 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-13 | Leib Ryan J | officer | Sale | 5,755 @ $38.00 | $219K | −100.0% of holding | −5.9% | −65.2% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-12 | DeStefano David | director | Sale | 290,797 @ $37.18 | $10.8M | −21.5% of holding | −2.8% | −66.3% | 1,061,730 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-12 | DeStefano David | director | Sale | 64,018 @ $37.82 | $2.4M | −6.0% of holding | −2.8% | −66.3% | 997,712 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-12 | DeStefano David | director | Sale | 8,301 @ $38.65 | $321K | −0.8% of holding | −2.8% | −66.3% | 989,411 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-19 | Rowland Bryan T.R. | officer | Sale | 24,246 @ $36.22 | $878K | −99.5% of holding | +14.6% | −47.1% | 132 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-19 | Rowland Bryan T.R. | officer | Sale | 18,982 @ $35.68 | $677K | −43.8% of holding | +14.6% | −47.1% | 24,378 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-04 | Gayton Bradley M | director | Purchase | 9,350 @ $31.85 | $298K | +24.5% of holding | +16.8% | −37.0% | 47,535 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-03-04 | Gayton Bradley M | director | Purchase | 50 @ $31.82 | $2K | +0.1% of holding | +16.8% | −37.0% | 38,185 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-01-23 | ITEM SECOND IRR. TRUST FBO KYLE R. WESTPHAL u/a of JEFFREY R. WESTPHAL dated October 5, 2001 | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 18,157 @ $56.52 | $1.0M | −1.5% of holding | −21.4% | −45.1% | 1,211,100 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-01-22 | ITEM SECOND IRR. TRUST FBO KYLE R. WESTPHAL u/a of JEFFREY R. WESTPHAL dated October 5, 2001 | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 53,843 @ $56.48 | $3.0M | −4.2% of holding | −20.9% | −43.8% | 1,229,257 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-12-17 | SCHWAB JOHN R | officer | Sale | 20,000 @ $53.05 | $1.1M | −27.4% of holding | +6.5% | −34.8% | 53,104 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-12-12 | Westphal Jeffrey | other | Sale | 575,000 @ $53.01 | $30.5M | −100.0% of holding | +3.1% | −32.1% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2024-12-11 | DeStefano David | director | Sale | 216,268 @ $55.04 | $11.9M | −42.4% of holding | +0.2% | −32.4% | 293,345 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-12-10 | DeStefano David | director | Sale | 164,432 @ $55.03 | $9.0M | −35.9% of holding | −0.8% | −32.1% | 293,745 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-12-10 | ITEM SECOND IRR. TRUST FBO KYLE R. WESTPHAL u/a of JEFFREY R. WESTPHAL dated October 5, 2001 | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 61,654 @ $54.98 | $3.4M | −4.6% of holding | −0.8% | −32.1% | 1,283,100 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-12-10 | DeStefano David | director | Sale | 400 @ $55.52 | $22K | −0.1% of holding | −0.8% | −32.1% | 293,345 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-12-09 | ITEM SECOND IRR. TRUST FBO KYLE R. WESTPHAL u/a of JEFFREY R. WESTPHAL dated October 5, 2001 | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 13,346 @ $55.13 | $736K | −1.0% of holding | −1.5% | −33.6% | 1,344,754 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-12-06 | DeStefano David | director | Sale | 16,500 @ $56.15 | $927K | −7.5% of holding | −3.3% | −32.9% | 204,032 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2024-12-06 | Stamm John Richard | director | Sale | 3,815 @ $56.11 | $214K | −24.6% of holding | −3.3% | −32.9% | 11,720 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2024-12-06 | DeStefano David | director | Sale | 1,400 @ $55.39 | $78K | −0.6% of holding | −3.3% | −32.9% | 220,532 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
151 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-10 | Stamm John Richard | director | Award / grant | 15,638 | 32,685 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | Saunders Philip Seth | director | Award / grant | 15,638 | 50,606 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | Thompson Stefanie Westphal | director | Award / grant | 15,638 | 66,995 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | Radcliffe Amanda Westphal | director | Award / grant | 15,638 | 159,030 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | Mendola Mark J | director | Award / grant | 15,638 | 20,965 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | Gayton Bradley M | director | Award / grant | 15,638 | 68,500 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | DeStefano David | director | Award / grant | 15,638 | 1,271,155 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | ANDERSEN ERIC C. | director | Award / grant | 15,638 | 165,979 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-24 | DeStefano David | director | Withheld for tax | 51,983 | 1,255,517 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-24 | DeStefano David | director | Option exercise | 109,233 | 1,307,500 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-24 | DeStefano David | director | Option exercise | 109,233 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-23 | DeStefano David | director | Withheld for tax | 47,112 | 1,198,267 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-23 | SCHWAB JOHN R | officer | Withheld for tax | 16,411 | 132,271 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-23 | Rowland Bryan T.R. | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,768 | 12,872 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-23 | Rowland Bryan T.R. | officer | Option exercise | 6,428 | 6,429 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-23 | DeStefano David | director | Option exercise | 101,395 | 101,396 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-23 | Rowland Bryan T.R. | officer | Option exercise | 6,428 | 14,640 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-23 | SCHWAB JOHN R | officer | Option exercise | 30,305 | 148,682 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-23 | DeStefano David | director | Option exercise | 101,395 | 1,245,379 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-23 | SCHWAB JOHN R | officer | Option exercise | 30,305 | 30,305 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-20 | DeStefano David | director | Withheld for tax | 23,705 | 1,112,493 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-20 | SCHWAB JOHN R | officer | Withheld for tax | 12,936 | 111,097 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-20 | DeStefano David | director | Withheld for tax | 12,523 | 1,143,984 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-20 | SCHWAB JOHN R | officer | Withheld for tax | 8,598 | 118,377 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-20 | Leib Ryan J | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,263 | 5,892 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-20 | Rowland Bryan T.R. | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,259 | 6,213 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-20 | Rowland Bryan T.R. | officer | Withheld for tax | 976 | 8,212 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-20 | Leib Ryan J | officer | Withheld for tax | 782 | 7,423 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-20 | SCHWAB JOHN R | officer | Option exercise | 15,878 | 126,975 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-20 | DeStefano David | director | Option exercise | 69,527 | 1,136,198 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-20 | DeStefano David | director | Option exercise | 44,014 | 1,156,507 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-20 | DeStefano David | director | Option exercise | 69,527 | 139,055 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-20 | DeStefano David | director | Option exercise | 44,014 | 132,043 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-20 | Leib Ryan J | officer | Option exercise | 4,035 | 7,155 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-20 | Leib Ryan J | officer | Option exercise | 2,313 | 8,205 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-20 | Leib Ryan J | officer | Option exercise | 4,035 | 8,071 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-20 | Leib Ryan J | officer | Option exercise | 2,313 | 6,941 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-20 | SCHWAB JOHN R | officer | Option exercise | 23,888 | 124,033 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-20 | SCHWAB JOHN R | officer | Option exercise | 23,888 | 47,776 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-20 | SCHWAB JOHN R | officer | Option exercise | 15,878 | 47,635 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.