VERAVera Therapeutics, Inc.Healthcare · Biotechnologyas of 2026-09-25
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-25 at $32.54 · now $32.54 (2026-09-25, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-25 close, VERA has typically landed between $24.26 and $45.66 — a range of −25.4% to +40.3% from the issuance price $32.54.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

1,325 overlapping 1 month windows · 2021-05-14 – 2026-08-26 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Base rate up 53.7% (90% CI 51.5–55.9%, ≈1,391 obs). Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-25 issuance close ($32.54) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-26, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where VERA has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-25 close of $32.54 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$24.26worst · -25.4%$45.66best · +40.3%
  • now $32.54 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $32.21 (-1.0%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $27.86–$36.55
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $24.26–$45.66
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 1,325 windows spanning 2021-05-14 to 2026-09-25. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2022-12-06−67.5%−67.5%+23.3%
2022-12-05−66.2%−66.2%+26.7%
2022-12-02−65.6%−65.6%+25.8%
3 best
2024-01-18+208.2%+0.0%+208.2%
2024-01-19+199.3%+0.0%+207.8%
2024-01-17+190.6%−4.8%+190.6%

1,325 overlapping windows · 2021-05-14 – 2026-09-25 · not cherry-picked

Pending catalysts

  • November 2027 — Trial primary completion: Phase 2 primary completion: Atacicept in Multiple Glomerular Diseases (source, as of 2026-08-14)
  • 2031-05-21 — Trial primary completion: Phase 2 primary completion: A Rollover Study to Evaluate the Long-Term Safety and Efficacy of Atacicept (source, as of 2026-08-14)

Public, scheduled events — dated attention, not a prediction of the outcome. See the FDA catalysts page for the historical base rate.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~6 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
20%
+5.8%
n=5
Feb
40%
+1.6%
n=5
Mar
40%
−4.8%
n=5
Apr
0%
−10.3%
n=5
May
20%
−4.9%
n=5
Jun
50%
+17.2%
n=6
Jul
67%
+7.3%
n=6
Aug
67%
+2.6%
n=6
Sep
50%
+6.7%
n=6
Oct
20%
−7.1%
n=5
Nov
80%
+29.3%
n=5
Dec
60%
+7.8%
n=5

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$56$212026-09-15: 1 insider sale, $685K — Fordyce Marshall2026-09-02: 1 insider sale, $650K — Fordyce Marshall2026-07-07: 4 insider sales, $2.0M — Fordyce Marshall …2026-06-23: 2 insider sales, $702K — Fordyce Marshall …2026-05-12: 2 insider sales, $680K — Fordyce Marshall …2026-04-14: 3 insider sales, $1.0M — Fordyce Marshall …2026-02-23: 7 insider sales, $1.4M — Fordyce Marshall, Grant Sean, Young Joseph R, JOHNSON DAVID LEE …2025-12-15: 1 insider sale, $501K — Turner William D.2025-12-11: 1 insider purchase, $250K — ENRIGHT PATRICK G2025-12-08: 1 insider sale, $453K — Turner William D.2025-12-03: 1 insider sale, $400K — Turner William D.2025-11-21: 1 insider sale, $107K — Carter Jason S2025-11-11: 1 insider sale, $436K — Young Joseph R2025-11: 2 open-market sales, $543K2025-12: 1 open-market purchase, $250K2025-12: 3 open-market sales, $1.4M2026-02: 7 open-market sales, $1.4M2026-04: 3 open-market sales, $1.0M2026-05: 2 open-market sales, $680K2026-06: 2 open-market sales, $702K2026-07: 4 open-market sales, $2.0M2026-09: 2 open-market sales, $1.3M↑ buys↓ salesdirector Fordyce Marshall — Sale on 2026-09-15, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Fordyce Marshall — Sale on 2026-09-02, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Fordyce Marshall — Sale on 2026-07-07, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Fordyce Marshall — Sale on 2026-07-07, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Fordyce Marshall — Sale on 2026-07-07, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Fordyce Marshall — Sale on 2026-07-07, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Fordyce Marshall — Sale on 2026-06-23, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Fordyce Marshall — Sale on 2026-06-23, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Fordyce Marshall — Sale on 2026-05-12, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Fordyce Marshall — Sale on 2026-05-12, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Fordyce Marshall — Sale on 2026-04-14, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Fordyce Marshall — Sale on 2026-04-14, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Fordyce Marshall — Sale on 2026-04-14, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Fordyce Marshall — Sale on 2026-02-23, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Grant Sean — Sale on 2026-02-23, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Young Joseph R — Sale on 2026-02-23, filed 2 days after the tradedirector JOHNSON DAVID LEE — Sale on 2026-02-23, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Turner William D. — Sale on 2026-02-23, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Brenner Robert — Sale on 2026-02-23, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Skelton Laurence Matthew — Sale on 2026-02-23, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Turner William D. — Sale on 2025-12-15, filed 2 days after the tradedirector ENRIGHT PATRICK G — Purchase on 2025-12-11, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Turner William D. — Sale on 2025-12-08, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Turner William D. — Sale on 2025-12-03, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Carter Jason S — Sale on 2025-11-21, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Young Joseph R — Sale on 2025-11-11, filed 2 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-09-15Fordyce MarshalldirectorSale18,500 @ $37.00$685K−7.3% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open235,244Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-09-02Fordyce MarshalldirectorSale18,500 @ $35.12$650K−7.3% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open235,244Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-07-07Fordyce MarshalldirectorSale32,550 @ $42.07$1.4M−16.5% of holding−32.3%not yet — horizon still open164,694Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-07-07Fordyce MarshalldirectorSale10,500 @ $42.86$450K−6.4% of holding−32.3%not yet — horizon still open154,194Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-07-07Fordyce MarshalldirectorSale2,200 @ $43.59$96K−1.4% of holding−32.3%not yet — horizon still open151,994Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-07-07Fordyce MarshalldirectorSale1,000 @ $40.78$41K−0.5% of holding−32.3%not yet — horizon still open197,244Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-06-23Fordyce MarshalldirectorSale18,412 @ $37.93$698K−8.5% of holding−5.5%not yet — horizon still open198,332Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-06-23Fordyce MarshalldirectorSale88 @ $38.43$3K−0.0% of holding−5.5%not yet — horizon still open198,244Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-12Fordyce MarshalldirectorSale14,219 @ $36.64$521K−6.0% of holding−8.3%not yet — horizon still open221,025Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-12Fordyce MarshalldirectorSale4,281 @ $37.09$159K−1.9% of holding−8.3%not yet — horizon still open216,744Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-04-14Fordyce MarshalldirectorSale14,130 @ $43.66$617K−5.5% of holding−18.6%not yet — horizon still open244,065Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-04-14Fordyce MarshalldirectorSale7,921 @ $44.58$353K−3.2% of holding−18.6%not yet — horizon still open236,144Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-04-14Fordyce MarshalldirectorSale900 @ $45.51$41K−0.4% of holding−18.6%not yet — horizon still open235,244Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-23Fordyce MarshalldirectorSale16,925 @ $41.98$711K−6.2% of holding−1.5%−32.3%257,163Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-23Grant SeanofficerSale4,949 @ $41.98$208K−4.2% of holding−1.5%−32.3%114,181Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-23Young Joseph RofficerSale3,117 @ $41.98$131K−4.6% of holding−1.5%−32.3%64,722Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-23JOHNSON DAVID LEEdirectorSale2,579 @ $41.98$108K−5.3% of holding−1.5%−32.3%45,727Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-23Turner William D.officerSale2,187 @ $41.98$92K−4.6% of holding−1.5%−32.3%45,313Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-23Brenner RobertofficerSale2,151 @ $41.98$90K−4.1% of holding−1.5%−32.3%50,947Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-23Skelton Laurence MatthewofficerSale1,582 @ $41.98$66K−2.4% of holding−1.5%−32.3%64,218Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-12-15Turner William D.officerSale10,000 @ $50.08$501K−30.8% of holding−7.9%−38.3%22,500Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-12-11ENRIGHT PATRICK GdirectorPurchase5,882 @ $42.50$250Kownership Δ n/a+5.7%−35.7%5,882Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-12-08Turner William D.officerSale10,000 @ $45.31$453K−30.8% of holding+4.7%−36.5%22,500Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-12-03Turner William D.officerSale10,000 @ $40.00$400K−30.8% of holding+13.2%−30.2%22,500Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-11-21Carter Jason SofficerSale3,864 @ $27.82$107K−7.3% of holding+84.7%+5.9%49,136Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-11-11Young Joseph RofficerSale15,000 @ $29.06$436K−23.9% of holding+54.0%+23.0%47,839Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-06-24ENRIGHT PATRICK GdirectorPurchase27,071 @ $22.35$605K+0.8% of holding−7.7%+124.7%3,596,593Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-06-24ENRIGHT PATRICK GdirectorPurchase13,536 @ $22.35$303K+0.8% of holding−7.7%+124.7%1,797,619Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-06-23ENRIGHT PATRICK GdirectorPurchase139,595 @ $20.87$2.9M+4.1% of holding−1.1%+122.5%3,569,522Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-06-23ENRIGHT PATRICK GdirectorPurchase69,798 @ $20.87$1.5M+4.1% of holding−1.1%+122.5%1,784,083Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-02-26Fordyce MarshalldirectorSale7,975 @ $27.55$220K−3.7% of holding−0.2%−29.5%205,765Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-26Fordyce MarshalldirectorSale1,100 @ $28.32$31K−0.5% of holding−0.2%−29.5%204,665Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-21Fordyce MarshalldirectorSale10,613 @ $27.89$296K−4.7% of holding−1.0%−33.1%213,740Form 4 · filed 6 days after the trade
2025-01-08Fordyce MarshalldirectorSale9,975 @ $41.53$414K−6.5% of holding−17.6%−51.2%143,603Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-01-08Fordyce MarshalldirectorSale5,650 @ $42.03$237K−3.8% of holding−17.6%−51.2%143,603Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-01-08Fordyce MarshalldirectorSale1,875 @ $42.00$79K−1.3% of holding−17.6%−51.2%143,603Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2024-12-18Fordyce MarshalldirectorSale5,023 @ $43.52$219K−5.5% of holding−22.1%−48.2%85,942Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2024-12-18Fordyce MarshalldirectorSale4,635 @ $44.03$204K−5.1% of holding−22.1%−48.2%85,942Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2024-12-18Fordyce MarshalldirectorSale3,772 @ $41.33$156K−4.2% of holding−22.1%−48.2%85,942Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2024-12-18Fordyce MarshalldirectorSale2,195 @ $42.35$93K−2.5% of holding−22.1%−48.2%85,942Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2024-12-18Fordyce MarshalldirectorSale1,875 @ $43.81$82K−2.1% of holding−22.1%−48.2%85,942Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2024-12-11Fordyce MarshalldirectorSale14,925 @ $46.91$700K−14.8% of holding−21.7%−53.5%85,942Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2024-12-11Fordyce MarshalldirectorSale1,775 @ $46.94$83K−2.0% of holding−21.7%−53.5%85,942Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2024-12-11Fordyce MarshalldirectorSale700 @ $47.55$33K−0.8% of holding−21.7%−53.5%85,942Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2024-12-11Fordyce MarshalldirectorSale100 @ $47.65$5K−0.1% of holding−21.7%−53.5%85,942Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2024-11-25Fordyce MarshalldirectorSale7,665 @ $48.18$369K−8.2% of holding−11.2%−59.2%85,942Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2024-11-25Fordyce MarshalldirectorSale6,579 @ $47.05$310K−7.1% of holding−11.2%−59.2%85,942Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2024-11-25Fordyce MarshalldirectorSale1,875 @ $49.00$92K−2.1% of holding−11.2%−59.2%85,942Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2024-11-25Fordyce MarshalldirectorSale1,875 @ $48.76$91K−2.1% of holding−11.2%−59.2%85,942Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2024-11-25Fordyce MarshalldirectorSale1,381 @ $48.80$67K−1.6% of holding−11.2%−59.2%85,942Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2024-11-13Fordyce MarshalldirectorSale12,218 @ $49.54$605K−12.4% of holding−12.1%−57.7%85,942Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2024-11-13Fordyce MarshalldirectorSale7,500 @ $49.00$368K−8.0% of holding−12.1%−57.7%85,942Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2024-11-13Fordyce MarshalldirectorSale3,307 @ $50.28$166K−3.7% of holding−12.1%−57.7%85,942Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2024-11-13Fordyce MarshalldirectorSale1,875 @ $49.57$93K−2.1% of holding−12.1%−57.7%85,942Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2024-11-13Fordyce MarshalldirectorSale1,875 @ $49.52$93K−2.1% of holding−12.1%−57.7%85,942Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2024-11-13Fordyce MarshalldirectorSale1,875 @ $49.50$93K−2.1% of holding−12.1%−57.7%85,942Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2024-11-13Fordyce MarshalldirectorSale1,565 @ $49.59$78K−1.8% of holding−12.1%−57.7%85,942Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2024-11-13Fordyce MarshalldirectorSale310 @ $50.35$16K−0.4% of holding−12.1%−57.7%85,942Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2024-11-13Fordyce MarshalldirectorSale100 @ $51.20$5K−0.1% of holding−12.1%−57.7%85,942Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2024-10-28SEIDENBERG BETH CdirectorSale14,798 @ $48.01$710K−10.1% of holding−3.2%−46.6%131,755Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

155 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-09-15Fordyce MarshalldirectorOption exercise18,500253,744Form 4
2026-09-15Fordyce MarshalldirectorOption exercise18,500488,801Form 4
2026-09-11Young Joseph RofficerOption exercise5,00080,754Form 4
2026-09-11Young Joseph RofficerOption exercise5,00033,589Form 4
2026-09-02Fordyce MarshalldirectorOption exercise18,500253,744Form 4
2026-09-02Fordyce MarshalldirectorOption exercise18,500507,301Form 4
2026-08-03Boman Nancy LeeofficerAward / grant44,98744,987Form 4
2026-08-03Boman Nancy LeeofficerAward / grant63,01163,011Form 4
2026-05-21Cheng AndrewdirectorAward / grant17,08417,084Form 4
2026-05-21Hall KimballdirectorAward / grant17,08417,084Form 4
2026-05-21MORRISSEY MICHAELdirectorAward / grant17,08417,084Form 4
2026-05-21Meyers James RdirectorAward / grant17,08417,084Form 4
2026-05-21Morrison Scott WdirectorAward / grant17,08417,084Form 4
2026-05-21Oliger Christy J.directorAward / grant17,08417,084Form 4
2026-05-21SEIDENBERG BETH CdirectorAward / grant17,08417,084Form 4
2026-05-21ENRIGHT PATRICK GdirectorAward / grant17,08417,084Form 4
2026-03-23Wright-Mitchell JaneofficerAward / grant56,85056,850Form 4
2026-03-23Wright-Mitchell JaneofficerAward / grant42,40342,403Form 4
2026-03-13Young Joseph RofficerOption exercise10,00075,754Form 4
2026-03-13Young Joseph RofficerOption exercise10,00038,589Form 4
2026-03-05Hite ChristopherdirectorAward / grant24,93724,937Form 4
2026-02-04Young Joseph RofficerAward / grant20,00020,000Form 4
2026-02-04Brenner RobertofficerAward / grant25,00053,098Form 4
2026-02-04Brenner RobertofficerAward / grant50,00050,000Form 4
2026-02-04Fordyce MarshalldirectorAward / grant68,800274,088Form 4
2026-02-04Fordyce MarshalldirectorAward / grant137,500137,500Form 4
2026-02-04Skelton Laurence MatthewofficerAward / grant20,00065,800Form 4
2026-02-04Skelton Laurence MatthewofficerAward / grant40,00040,000Form 4
2026-02-04Grant SeanofficerAward / grant25,000119,130Form 4
2026-02-04Grant SeanofficerAward / grant50,00050,000Form 4
2026-02-04Turner William D.officerAward / grant25,00047,500Form 4
2026-02-04Turner William D.officerAward / grant50,00050,000Form 4
2026-02-04JOHNSON DAVID LEEdirectorAward / grant20,00048,306Form 4
2026-02-04JOHNSON DAVID LEEdirectorAward / grant40,00040,000Form 4
2026-02-04Young Joseph RofficerAward / grant10,00067,839Form 4
2025-12-15Turner William D.officerOption exercise10,00032,500Form 4
2025-12-15Turner William D.officerOption exercise10,000245,000Form 4
2025-12-08Turner William D.officerOption exercise10,00032,500Form 4
2025-12-08Turner William D.officerOption exercise10,000255,000Form 4
2025-12-03Turner William D.officerOption exercise10,00032,500Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.